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The Star
6 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Mixed views on 2H25 external trade growth
PETALING JAYA: Economists are offering varying views as to whether external trade will grow in the second half of the year or 2H25 after the slight year-on-year (y-o-y)dip in May, with June's numbers scheduled to be out tomorrow. Nevertheless, they remain confident that the country can achieve a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of between 4% and 5% this year, although a continued slowdown is being forecast for 2026. Late last month, the Statistics Department released May's trade figures which showed that the export unit value index had nudged down 1.5% y-o-y to 148 points. Likewise, the import unit value index had also registered a fall of 1.1% to 124.8 points in May, while the terms of trade also declined by 0.5% month-on-month to 118.6 points. Professor of economics at Sunway University, Yeah Kim Leng, said that the ringgit's appreciation against the US dollar was the main cause for the marginal dip in May exports in ringgit terms, and for the seemingly modest export growth averaging 5.7% a month over the same period. With the ringgit having appreciated against the US dollar by an average increase of 7% a month in the first five months of the year, he said Malaysia's y-o-y exports in dollar terms grew by 13.1% a month, while imports expanded by 14.6% during the same period. 'With (US President Donald) Trump's tariffs delayed to Aug 1, Malaysia's export and import growth in ringgit terms is expected to revert to positive territory while maintaining double-digit increases in the US dollar,' he told StarBiz. Asia Pacific chief economist at credit insurer Coface, Bernard Aw, said that so far in 2025, the country's external trade was driven by re-exports, which made up 20% of total exports, which is in contrast to last year where re-exports shrank and domestic exports picked up the slack. Observing that re-exports rose 13.8% in January to May 2025 while domestic exports lagged with a much smaller 3.5% growth, he said this reflected the transshipment narrative as businesses try to stock up ahead of the US tariffs. Expecting export front-loading demand to taper off in the coming months as uncertainty remains high and businesses finish their stock-building, Aw said this means export performance would weaken. 'Assuming Malaysia fails to reach a favourable deal before the end of July, the direct impact of US tariffs from a 10% baseline to 25% and indirect impact on its main trading partners will weigh on the country's economic and export activity,' he said. Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist and co-head of Global Investment Research Asia at HSBC, concurred, saying shipments are likely to cool as higher tariffs made Malaysian and other Asian goods more expensive in the United States. Even if tariffs did not climb as much as feared, he said there would still likely be a slowdown in trade as front-loading has swelled inventories, which in any event will need to be whittled down. The projected brakes on trade notwithstanding, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid is predicting GDP to grow by 4.1% in 2025, noting that business and consumer sentiments are expected to be cautious due to numerous factors, local and foreign. 'The impact of US levies on the global economy as well as domestic policies such as the sales and service tax, electricity tariffs, the Employees Provident Fund contribution for foreign workers and the impending RON95 subsidy rationalisation will tilt the needle. 'Having said that, while sentiment remains cautious, the economy should be able to grow as the labour market is still in full employment status along with ongoing investment activities among the private firms,' he said. Meanwhile, Neumann said that on average, Malaysia could still see a decent expansion of exports for the year, echoing Yeah's view, although he added that the annual numbers masked a sequential slowdown, while demand in the United States is shifting from front-loading to inventory destocking. He said this means that headwinds for trade could persist into 2026, especially if higher tariffs in the United States spark an economic slowdown there and across much of the world. Neumann commented: 'A positive is that lower oil prices should help cushion the impact of a global trade slowdown due to tariffs. 'Nevertheless, persistent policy uncertainty in the United States will likely mean that growth over the coming years will need to be driven more by domestic demand, especially consumption.' Coface's Aw sees the economy slowing to 4% in 2025, and 3.5% in 2026, anticipating household spending to hold up GDP growth this year. However, he said the risks to his forecast remained on the downside, before adding that if the tariff war escalates or the Middle East conflict widens regionally, global growth is likely to fall below 2%, which will impact Malaysia.
The Hindu
14-07-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
Rupee declines 17 paise to 85.97 against U.S. dollar in early trade
The rupee fell 17 paise to 85.97 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday (July 14, 2025) amid a strengthening greenback and FII outflows. Uncertainties over U.S. trade tariffs further pressured the rupee, according to forex experts. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened 85.96 against the U.S. dollar before slipping to 85.97, down 17 paise from its previous close. The rupee had closed at 85.80 against the U.S. dollar on Friday (July 11, 2025). "As (U.S. President Donald) Trump applies tariffs on various countries, India remains out of the tariffs band for now with negotiations still on to finalise the amount of tariff that the US could apply. The range for rupee during the day is expected to be 85.50-86.00," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.08%to 97.93. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 0.19% to $70.02 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex dropped 295.37 points to 82,205.10, while the Nifty was down 71.4 points to 25,078.45. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹5,104.22 crore on a net basis on Friday, according to exchange data. Further, the latest Reserve Bank of India data released on Friday showed India's forex reserves dropping $3.049 billion to $699.736 billion in the week ended July 4.
Calgary Herald
01-07-2025
- Climate
- Calgary Herald
Canada Day in Calgary marked by pride, reflection amid global tensions
Thousands of Calgarians flocked to Canada Day festivities across the city on Tuesday, with many saying the occasion felt especially meaningful this year amid growing global tensions and political unrest south of the border. Article content For some, the day was about more than waving flags and watching fireworks — it was a moment to reflect on what it means to be Canadian in the face of ongoing U.S.-Canada tensions, tariffs and 51st-state taunts. Article content Article content Article content 'It's very front of mind (this year) to be proud of our heritage and who we are — making sure that we keep our own special identity present,' said Jennifer Taylor, who spent the day at Heritage Park with her children. 'We figured what better way to celebrate Canada's birthday than being part of its history?' Article content 'I don't want to go to the U.S. until (U.S. President Donald) Trump leaves (office) or resigns,' said Caroline, who immigrated to Canada from the Philippines in 2011. 'That's my way of supporting our country peacefully . . . silently protesting.' Article content Cars lined up along Heritage Drive on Tuesday as thousands descended on Heritage Park, which was celebrating both Canada Day and the park's 61st birthday. Visitors enjoyed family-friendly activities, live music, cultural performances and a vintage car show. Article content Article content Hot, sunny weather made for an ideal Canada Day at the park, where families sought shade under trees and slathered sunscreen on children to beat the heat. A heat warning was in effect for Calgary, with temperature expected to reach 29 C on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to Environment Canada. Article content 'It's very busy today,' said Eirin Bernie, communications manager at Heritage Park. 'It seems to be a lot busier than it has been for the past couple of years, so we're super excited.' Article content 'The weather turned out for us, too,' she added. 'Last (year) it was raining, so already we have a better Canada Day.'
Business Recorder
01-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold gains on dollar weakness, US jobs data awaited
NEW YORK: Gold firmed on Monday as support from a weaker dollar overshadowed increased risk appetite, while the market's focus shifted to US jobs data due later this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,284.49 per ounce by 1305 GMT, after hitting its lowest since May 29 earlier in the session. Bullion has risen 5.2% so far this quarter. US gold futures gained 0.4% at $3,295.40. 'A weaker US dollar and the ongoing pressure of President (Donald) Trump on the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates' are supporting gold, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. The dollar index hovered near its lowest level since March 2022, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies. Trump said on Friday he would not appoint anyone to head the Federal Reserve who would not support lowering interest rates. Gold gains are limited 'as risk appetite has returned to the (equities) markets following the sudden de-escalation in the Middle East situation ... and optimism on the trade deal front,' said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and World shares held just below recent record highs as the revival of US/Canada trade talks helped risk sentiment. Canada on Sunday said it had rescinded its digital services tax in a bid to advance trade negotiations, bowing to pressure from Trump.
18-06-2025
- Politics
G-7 Summit in Canada Comes to End
News from Japan Politics Jun 18, 2025 10:28 (JST) Kananaskis, Canada, June 17 (Jiji Press)--A two-day Group of Seven summit in Kananaskis, western Canada, ended on Tuesday, with leaders signing joint statements on six areas, including artificial intelligence and supply chains for critical minerals. Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, which hosted the meeting, released a chair's summary saying that "G-7 leaders expressed support for (U.S.) President (Donald) Trump's efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine." But the leaders of the G-7 major powers, which also include Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan plus the European Union, did not issue a joint statement on assistance to Ukraine amid Russia's invasion. This was likely due to a disagreement between the United States and the rest of the G-7 members after the U.S. side pushed for a watered-down expression in a draft statement that had been agreed by the remaining member states. END [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.] Jiji Press
