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Welcome to Your Conviction-Light Stock Rally
Welcome to Your Conviction-Light Stock Rally

Bloomberg

time11-07-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Welcome to Your Conviction-Light Stock Rally

'There are known unknowns,' former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld mused in a 2002 press briefing in the lead-up to the Iraq War. 'But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know,' he continued. 'It is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.' The same could now be said about the Trump administration's burgeoning trade war, and in fact, there are signs that angst about the unknown unknowns is creeping into the outlook for big US companies. You wouldn't know it by the looks of the US stock market. The S&P 500 Index is hovering near record highs. And the index's forward price-earnings ratio is back to its Feb. 19 peak, before the White House's tariff threats sent stocks tumbling. By all outward appearances, the market no longer seems to care about a trade war.

Donald Trump has discovered that Iran's supreme leader lies just as boldly as he does
Donald Trump has discovered that Iran's supreme leader lies just as boldly as he does

Irish Times

time29-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Irish Times

Donald Trump has discovered that Iran's supreme leader lies just as boldly as he does

Donald Trump has finally met his match. The Iranian supreme leader lies just as boldly, with just as much bombast, as the American supreme leader. On Thursday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei put out a video hailing Iran's victory over Israel and the United States. Trump was shocked, shocked at this blatant lie. READ MORE 'As a man of great faith, he is not supposed to lie,' the president marvelled on Truth Social. Then Trump went on to his usual authoritarian etiquette lesson, complaining that the proper response by Khamenei to getting hit with 14 30,000-pound bombs should have been: 'THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!' Trump said that he deserved gratitude because he knew where the ayatollah was hiding and stopped Israeli and US forces from killing him. He said that he made Israel recall a group of planes headed for Tehran that were, perhaps, looking for 'the final knockout!' 'I wish the leadership of Iran would realise,' he tut-tutted, 'that you often get more with HONEY than you do with VINEGAR. PEACE!!!' Half an hour later, Mr Honey put out a typically vinegary post abruptly cutting off 'ALL' trade talks with Canada. Before Trump did it, with an assist from the supreme court on Friday, it was Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld who worked to erode checks and balances and Hoover all the power into the executive branch. With the malleable George W Bush in the Oval Office, Cheney and Rumsfeld were able to create an alternate universe where they were never wrong – because they conjured up information to prove they were right. The two malevolent regents had a fever about getting rid of Saddam, so they hyped up intelligence, redirecting Americans' vengeful emotions about Osama bin Laden and 9/11 into that pet project. Tony Blair scaremongered that it would take only 45 minutes for Saddam to send his WMDs westward. But there were no WMDs. When it comes to the Middle East, presidents can't resist indulging in a gasconade. Unlike Iraq, Iran was actually making progress on its nuclear programme. Trump did not need to warp intelligence to justify his decision. But he did anyway, to satisfy his unquenchable ego. He bragged that the strikes had 'OBLITERATED' Iran's nuclear capabilities. 'I just don't think the president was telling the truth,' Connecticut Democratic senator Chris Murphy told reporters. He believes Iran still has 'significant remaining capability'. When CNN's Natasha Bertrand and her colleagues broke the story that a preliminary classified US report suggested that the strikes had set back Iran by only a few months, Trump, Pete Hegseth and Karoline Leavitt smeared her and the New York Times, which confirmed her scoop, as inaccurate, unpatriotic and disrespectful to our military. On Friday afternoon, CNN revealed that the military did not even use bunker-buster bombs on one of Iran's largest nuclear targets because it was too deep. Though Trump likes to hug the flag – and just raised two huge ones on the White House North and South Lawns – he ignores a basic tenet of patriotism: It is patriotic to tell the public the truth on life-or-death matters, and for the press to challenge power. It is unpatriotic to mislead the public in order to control it and suppress dissent, or as a way of puffing up your own ego. Although he was dubbed the 'Daddy' of Nato in The Hague on Wednesday, Trump clearly has daddy issues. (Pass the tissues!) He did not get the affirmation from his father that could have prevented this vainglorious vamping. For Trump, it was not enough for the strikes to damage Iran's nuclear capabilities; they had to 'obliterate' them. It could not simply be an impressive mission; it had to be, as Hegseth said, 'the most complex and secretive military operation in history.' (Move over, D-Day and crossing the Delaware.) The president was so eager to magnify the mission that he eerily compared it to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Trump has always believed in 'truthful hyperbole,' as he called it in The Art of the Deal. But now it's untruthful hyperbole. He has falsely claimed that an election was stolen and falsely claimed that $1.7 trillion in cuts to the social safety net in his Big, Unpopular Bill 'won't affect anybody; it is just fraud, waste and abuse'. He's getting help on his alternate universe from all the new partisan reporters in the White House briefing room who are eager to shill for him. 'So many Americans still have questions about the 2020 election,' a reporter told Trump at the news conference on Friday, wondering if he would appoint someone at the Justice Department to investigate judges 'for the political persecution of you, your family and your supporters during the Biden administration?' Trump beamed. 'I love you,' he said to the young woman. 'Who are you?' She was, as it turned out, the reporter for Mike Lindell of MyPillow fame, who has his own 'news' network. Talk about fluffing your pillows. This article originally appeared in The New York Times .

What is the secretive 'doomsday plane' spotted amid West Asia tensions?
What is the secretive 'doomsday plane' spotted amid West Asia tensions?

Business Standard

time20-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Business Standard

What is the secretive 'doomsday plane' spotted amid West Asia tensions?

One of the US military's most secretive aircraft, the Boeing E-4B Nightwatch, often referred to as the 'doomsday plane', reportedly landed at the Joint Base Andrews near Washington, DC on Tuesday night. The aircraft's arrival coincided with escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Unusual flight path raises eyebrows The E-4B, which is built to safeguard the US Secretary of Defence and other senior national security personnel during nuclear conflict, was spotted on its route by flight trackers, according to a report by The New York Post. The plane departed from Bossier City, Louisiana, shortly before 6 pm (local time), and reached Maryland at 10 pm, after taking a lengthy and indirect path skirting the East Coast and circling near the borders of Virginia and North Carolina, according to data from FlightRadar. What is the 'doomsday plane'? The E-4B Nightwatch is a specially modified aircraft that acts as an airborne command post for the US President, Secretary of Defense, and top military leaders, allowing for critical communication and control in emergencies, including during nuclear attacks. Each E-4B is capable of housing up to 112 personnel and can travel over 7,000 miles. The aircraft is equipped with protection against nuclear explosions, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic interference, and has systems in place to launch retaliatory strikes if necessary. With 67 satellite dishes and antennas on board, the aircraft can maintain contact with any part of the world. Designed to operate continuously for up to a week without landing, it can refuel mid-air. Former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld used the E-4B as his main form of travel during George W Bush's presidency. Top specs of E-4B 'Nightwatch' * Primary function: Airborne operations center * Aircraft manufacturer: Boeing Aerospace Co * Power: Four General Electric CF6-50E2 turbofan engines * Thrust: 52,500 pounds each engine * Length: 231 feet, 4 inches (70.5 meters) * Maximum takeoff weight: 360,000 kg * Endurance: 12 hours (unrefuelled) * Date of deployment: January 1980 [Data as of June 2024] E-4B Nightwatch: The flying Pentagon The E-4B features three decks containing 18 sleeping bunks, a briefing room, teamwork area, conference room, command centre, and dedicated rest facilities, effectively transforming it into a 'flying Pentagon' capable of running government operations in times of national emergency. The US Air Force is currently in the process of replacing its E-4B fleet with newer models to continue its airborne command mission. Israel-Iran conflict: What's happening? The conflict has intensified as Israeli forces have carried out strikes on several Iranian nuclear and defence facilities, reportedly killing senior generals and nuclear scientists. A US-based human rights group reported 639 deaths in Iran, including 263 civilians, with over 1,300 wounded. In retaliation, Iran has launched approximately 400 missiles and multiple drones, resulting in at least 24 deaths in Israel and hundreds of injuries. (With inputs from multiple agencies)

Israel-Iran war could be last crusade against state-sponsored violence
Israel-Iran war could be last crusade against state-sponsored violence

UPI

time18-06-2025

  • Politics
  • UPI

Israel-Iran war could be last crusade against state-sponsored violence

A man removes a destroyed car at the site where an Iranian ballistic missile hit Tel Aviv on Monday. Iran has fired waves of drones and missiles into Israel. Photo by Debbie Hill/ UPI | License Photo June 18 (UPI) -- Unlike its Lebanon intervention in 1982 and the current conflict in Gaza, the principal wars Israel fought were very short and one sided: 1956, 1967 and 1973. How long the current battle with Iran lasts and how it ends are unlikely to be decided after a few days of fighting and aerial combat. But among the "unknown unknowns" former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was fond of assessing, here is one to consider. Is this war possibly the last crusade against state-sponsored religious violence and radical Islam? Crusade is an inflammatory word. But with the destruction of Hezbollah, the defeat of Hamas and the overthrow of the Assad rule in Syria, Iran was increasingly vulnerable. That also means that its form of radical Islam has been weakened. That does not mean ISIS, al Qaeda and other radical groups are less threatening. They are, however, if Iran is defeated or neutered without broader cover and thus greatly weakened. The Sunni Gulf Arabs have agreed at least to a de facto detente with Israel. The other large Muslim states, namely India and Pakistan, are disinterested in this battle. And Egypt signed a peace deal with Israel more than 50 years ago. Suppose that Iran is forced to reach some settlement over its nuclear weapons programs and abandon its policy of "death to Israel (and the United States and the United Kingdom)" that is enforceable. Whether this is possible, consider the implications. Fundamental Islam will now lack the means to continue its fight against the West and against Israel. The Jihad that began on Sept. 11 may not be officially over. It will be on life support. Now, if this speculation of "unknown unknowns" is correct, Israel's campaign against Iran takes on a broader context -- removing the danger of violent Islamic radicalism. Some in the United States will use this possibility as the rationale for America to take up arms with Israel. That would be a catastrophic blunder likely to turn much of the Muslim world further against the United States. But it does mean that influencing how the war ends is of far greater importance. It is becoming increasingly clear that Israel's aims go well beyond ending Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile weapons programs. Jerusalem may not call for regime change. However, it is hard to see from Israel's position how the current regime could be trusted to honor or accept any agreement. And given more than 1,000 miles of separation between the two warring countries, neither bombing Iran into submission nor physically occupying it is achievable. President Donald Trump has sensibly called for an end to the war. He also has demanded Iran forgo any and all nuclear weapons aspirations and capabilities. However, is there any chance that outside intervention by the United States could lead to an end to the war? In 1973, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's brilliant strategy was to cross Suez into the Sinai, which had been occupied by Israel since 1967, as a way of forcing negotiations. It succeeded masterfully. There is no equivalent Sinai here. And Israel seems to be prevailing in the bombing exchanges in imposing more damage to Iran than Iran to Israel. However, that is not a path necessarily leading to victory. The terms of an agreement would allow Iran to maintain a peaceful nuclear power industry under an even closer and more intimate inspection regime and to recognize Israel. Then, the Gulf states would follow suit. The obvious questions are what would coerce or convince the current regime to drink from this "poisoned chalice," as Khomeini was forced to do in ending the war with Iraq, and what incentives could be offered? Regime survival would be one. While that would not do much for an oppressed public dissatisfied with ayatollah rule, it would relieve the major source of conflict in the region. Still, this seems very much very wishful and even naive thinking. As history has shown, regime change since World War II has proven disastrous for U.S. policy objectives. But could an outcome be achieved in which Iran could accept the existence of Israel? We will not know until we try. So Mr. Trump, one of your prerequisites for peace is for Iran to accept Israel's existence and forgo all threats about its destruction. That can only be achieved by extensive surveillance of Iran's nuclear facilities. But were this to be achieved, it could be, ironically, the last crusade. Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist; senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company, and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with Field Marshal The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out next year, is Who Thinks Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe. The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.

Dr Craig Wing on writing ‘Four Future Seasons'
Dr Craig Wing on writing ‘Four Future Seasons'

TimesLIVE

time15-06-2025

  • Business
  • TimesLIVE

Dr Craig Wing on writing ‘Four Future Seasons'

Four Future Seasons offers something different: a means to approach the future as a spectrum of possibilities, drawing on three frameworks. The first is the Johari Window, a tool for understanding what is known and unknown about ourselves and others. The second is Donald Rumsfeld's infamous taxonomy of known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns, repurposed here as a surprisingly useful model for navigating uncertainty. The third comes from my travels through Japan, where I encountered the Shiki Sansui Zhu, four-season landscape that embodies impermanence, reflection and change through design. From these I developed the Four Future Seasons model: Summer futures are clear and data-rich. We feel confident extrapolating from past trends, but this season can lull us into false certainty. Winter futures are packed with the unknown. Data fails us. Precedent disappears. We must stay agile and open, navigating by entrepreneurial instinct as much as insight. Autumn futures are transitional. We begin to glimpse change. Leaders must act before clarity arrives, trusting early signals and preparing for disruption. Spring futures are regenerative. Often forgotten, they remind us of what we once believed possible. They emerge after shocks — like the 1976 Soweto Youth uprising or a financial crash, or tariff war — that shake us out of inertia. Though designed for strategy, I've found this model deeply personal. We all experience seasonal shifts: a career winter, a rediscovered spring, the clarity of a summer moment. And yes, the title Four Future Seasons contains a small 'easter egg'. The acronym, FFS, is what many of us mutter when confronting the chaos of today! Rather, my hope through my book is that it becomes a framing of how to create better futures — for all.

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