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First Post
4 days ago
- Business
- First Post
E3-Iran nuclear talks: Slim chances for a second deal
Also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015 by Iran and the E3 plus China, Russia, and the United States. Image: REUTERS Friday morning Iran resumed nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany (also called Europe's E3), which are parties to its 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had codified a 3.7 per cent limit for Iran's uranium enrichment and a waiver of sanctions on Iran. But whether resumption of E3-Iran talks can facilitate revival of US-Iran talks leading to crafting a JCPOA 2.0 has serious limits so far. Prima facie, this second round of E3-Iran talks at Iran's Consulate in Istanbul continuing for four hours on Friday morning seems like a good sign for a start. The Iranian side was represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who said they had a frank, serious, and detailed discussion and 'agreed that consultations on this matter will continue'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Only that the JCPOA is due to expire in less than three months on October 18. The fundamental leverage that E3 has is to 'snap back' sanctions under the JCPOA, but it must start any such effort at least 30 days in advance, which leaves it with even less time. Then beyond the US, they will also have to deal with China and Russia. JCPOA Under Stress Also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the JCPOA was signed in 2015 by Iran and the E3 plus China, Russia, and the United States. But cracks in the JCPOA had begun early on when, in 2018, during President Trump's first term in office, the US had walked out of the JCPOA. Iran, in response, had also begun to roll back on its commitments on uranium enrichment, accusing others of not complying with their part of the JCPOA provisions. The March 2025 report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had concluded that Iran had reached a high level of 60 per cent uranium enrichment. Compared to its agreed 3.7 per cent uranium enrichment under JCPOA, this is much closer to weapon-grade uranium enrichment of 95 per cent. The IAEA report also reported Iran having already compiled a stockpile of 400 kg of such uranium. According to the Israeli spy agency Mossad, Iran was in position to make a nuclear bomb in 15 days time. These revelations of the IAEA coming in the midst of Israel's continuing war with Hamas and Hezbollah—also known as Iran's proxies in the region—had alarmed Western powers. The Trump presidency had responded to it by immediately initiating talks with Iran from April while keeping maximum pressure by supporting aggressive Israeli military operations. In fact these talks had witnessed an unusual hectic pace with five rounds in just two months: three in Muscat followed by two in Rome. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD US-Israeli Airstrikes It is interesting to note that the sixth round of the US-Iran talks was scheduled for 15 June at Muscat. These were suddenly scuttled due to Israeli air attacks on Iran on June 13. More startling was the fact that this was followed by American attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Nantaz, disrupting their nuclear talks. President Trump had claimed to have 'obliterated' Iranian nuclear facilities. But American media has since questioned this assessment, thereby putting pressure for revival of talks. In fact, along with the US-Iran talks, the E3 had also initiated talks with Iran. They held their first round in Istanbul on May 16. But following US-Israeli air strikes on Iran, the E3 had also threatened Iran with triggering 'snapback' sanctions as per the JCPOA unless Iran ensured substantial progress in talks before the end of August. This E3 ultimatum was driven partly by their limited window of less than three months' time when their option of snapback sanctions under JCPOA will expire on October 18. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Any attempt at imposing sanctions on Iran later through the UN Security Council will face Iran's friends, China and Russia, using vetoes to block any such action. Both China and Russia have condemned US-Israeli air strikes on Iran and remain opposed to unilateral sanctions. Besides, Iran has called this E3 ultimatum a breach of their May 16 Istanbul talks, which had agreed to continue consultations. Hardening Preconditions Following these US-Israeli attacks and the E3 ultimatum, Iran has refused to cooperate with the IAEA, criticising it for bias and for not condemning these strikes on its nuclear facilities. Iran had accordingly asked IAEA inspectors to leave the country and even threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who recently told Fox News that their enrichment was currently 'stopped' due to 'serious and severe' damage to their nuclear sites, also underlined that 'Iran's position remains unshakeable and that our uranium enrichment will continue'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran has since reinforced its preconditions that any talks must only focus on size and levels and not on its option for uranium enrichment. That these talks will also not include other issues like its ballistic missiles or so-called proxies in the region. The US, which sees these preconditions as red lines, remains divided, with its chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, asking Iran to return to the JCPOA-agreed limit of 3.7 per cent enrichment, while President Trump has been talking of complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. Even in the face of media assessments to the contrary of President Trump's claims, he has persisted with his belief that he has 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear facilities and is in no hurry to resume talks with Iran. At the same time, Trump has shown increasing discomfort with Prime Minister Netanyahu for not agreeing to an early end to his war in Gaza, which has killed over 56,000 Palestinians. In the midst of raised tempers, negotiations have less chance of success. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Way Forward So the basic purpose of E3-Iran talks therefore remains breaking ice in this increasingly difficult impasse. To begin with, they seek to revive an early resumption of the US-Iran talks. This is the only way to ensure continuation of JCPOA arrangements beyond October 18. But in the face of both the US and Iran digging their heels deeper, the E3, in fact, could become increasingly vulnerable. And they also have to deal with China and Russia. Iran has reasons to suspect its interlocutors. PM Netanyahu is increasingly seen defying President Trump, and both have threatened to resume strikes on Iran. In spite of its hectic five rounds of talks with the US plus one round of talks with E3, the Israeli offensive had killed several of Iran's top commanders and nuclear scientists. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has been urging E3 to trigger this snapback mechanism. While the JCPOA 2.0 may be a tall order, the only positive sign is Iran opening dialogue with the IAEA in the 'next few weeks' to explore possibilities for their return to Iran to resume their nuclear monitoring work. IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi said last Friday—as E3 were negotiating with Iran in Istanbul—that he is hopeful of 'starting on technical details and, later on, moving on to high-level consultations' without pushing for inspections as yet. This may not have received much media attention, but this technical approach to a political problem could be a more pragmatic way to deal with the current impasse. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The author is professor of International Relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
Indian Express
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
India must use its influence to support de-escalation and a return to negotiations
During the early hours of Sunday, the US launched Operation Midnight Hammer, a series of precision strikes on Iran's key nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Donald Trump declared that Iran's enrichment infrastructure had been 'completely and totally obliterated' and warned 'either peace or tragedy' lies ahead. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ruled out 'regime change', expressing the US's willingness to negotiate, and affirming that it will not take any military action unless Iran escalates. The strikes came shortly after a diplomatic window had seemingly opened. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy had met Rubio and Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in Washington, after which Trump's press secretary announced a two-week window for diplomacy. This followed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's outreach, suggesting that Iran was open to indirect talks. Trump walked out of the G7 summit to prioritise these developments. However, Vice President J D Vance and Witkoff's visit to Turkey fell through as Iran decided not to go ahead with talks without Israel halting its attacks. The last straw, reportedly, was the E3-Iran foreign ministerial meeting in Geneva, which failed to shift Tehran's position on enrichment. The US strikes were launched within 48 hours. Iran's initial reaction was somewhat fiery. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the US action as 'extremely dangerous, lawless, and criminal behavior,' warning of 'everlasting consequences' and declaring that 'all options are open'. Iran also accused the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of indirectly enabling the strikes. Despite fears of radiological fallout, both Iran's Regulatory Authority and the IAEA confirmed that no off-site radiation spike has been detected so far. Still, Isfahan remains a concern as it is a uranium conversion facility, with gaseous uranium compounds that are both chemically toxic and radiologically active. The IAEA also convened an emergency meeting of the Board of Governors in Vienna on Monday for further assessments. Iran has retaliated by firing a number of missiles at Tel Aviv, Haifa, and other locations in Israel. The decision of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on further retaliation is awaited. Will Iran escalate further or respond in a calibrated manner, as it did after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020? Over 4,00,000 US troops are stationed in the region, and the risk of broader conflict is immense. There is also uncertainty about the domestic political implications inside Iran: Will the public rally around the flag, or will frustration turn inwards? Will Iran activate its regional proxies to strike US bases or will it attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz? And can it do so effectively, given that its own missile capabilities have been reduced because of the strikes by Israel and the US? A non-binding Iranian parliamentary resolution adopted on Sunday calls for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but most analysts view this as rhetoric aimed at placating hardliners. However, two empty supertankers after entering the waterway did a U-turn yesterday, indicating first signs of diversion. Russia and China have condemned the strikes. Beijing called them a 'serious violation of international law' and pushed for a UNSC reaffirmation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Yet, neither power appears willing to get involved and have limited themselves to statements supporting Iran. Foreign Minister Araghchi travelled to Moscow for political and diplomatic support and to explore the role of Russia as a mediator, potentially involving China or multilateral mechanisms. India has remained cautious and balanced. Operation Sindhu was launched on June 18 to evacuate Indian nationals. Iran made a special gesture of opening its airspace for the evacuation of Indian nationals. Over 1,100 have already been brought home via special charter flights from Mashhad, Yerevan, and Ashgabat. Prime Minister Modi spoke to the Iranian President and emphasised de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy, reiterated by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. For India, these developments cannot be viewed from a distance. The wider regional and global implications are grave. A broader conflict may ignite multi-front warfare involving the Houthis and Iran-backed militias in Iraq. US troops in the region face increased risk. Oil prices have increased amid disruption Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel through which nearly 20 per cent of the world's oil and significant quantities of gas flow, is a critical lifeline. Its disruption would have immediate consequences for India's economy and its diaspora in the Gulf. Although India has built strategic reserves and diversified supply lines, a sudden spike in energy prices could accelerate inflation and deepen global market instability. Beyond energy, India must also recalibrate its strategic posture. We have close ties with Iran (particularly under the Chabahar framework), deep strategic relations with Israel, and increasing defence interoperability with the United States. In this moment of potential rupture, we must continue to avoid taking sides while using our influence to support de-escalation and a return to the negotiating table. What lies ahead is uncertain. Much depends on whether Ayatollah Khamenei, like in 1988, chooses to 'drink the chalice of poison' and accept a deal to avoid existential collapse. At that time, Ayatollah Khamenei ended the war with Iraq, recognising the cost of indefinite conflict. Today, the circumstances are different but the logic of strategic retreat may still apply. Khamenei's silence — over 24 hours now — has led many to believe Iran may opt for a face-saving de-escalation. India, which has always emphasised dialogue, multilateralism, and restraint, must be prepared to play a constructive role. It must also prepare economically and diplomatically for the turbulence that may follow. What remains unknown is the fate of Iran's residual nuclear expertise. Enrichment facilities can be rebuilt, and knowledge cannot be bombed. As the IAEA and others have observed, Iran's technical capacity — rooted in decades of experience — still matters. Which is why negotiations remain essential. The writer is former governor of India to IAEA, Vienna
Euronews
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
EU to influence Iran nuclear talks from sidelines in Geneva
The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom - collectively known as the E3 - will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva to discuss Iran's nuclear program in Geneva on Friday. While the EU has historically played a key role in negotiations with Iran, it seems unlikely to participate in the formal talks. When asked by Euronews whether EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas would participate in the talks, a European Commission spokesperson gave no clear confirmation. 'We have always expressed our openness to dialogue and negotiation. When such dialogue occurs, we will inform you,' the spokesperson said, leaving open the possibility of a last-minute invitation. Before the E3-Iran meeting, the European ministers are expected to meet with Kallas at Germany's permanent mission in Geneva however – a move that highlights the EU's continued efforts to coordinate and facilitate diplomacy, even if indirectly. Brussels has long played a central role in the Iran nuclear negotiations, particularly through the High Representative for Foreign Affairs in the broader EU+3 format – which once included other countries such as the United States, Russia and China. Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the UN-brokered nuclear agreement aimed at lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran's compliance with nuclear obligations, the EU served as a key facilitator and guardian of the agreement's implementation. Under the previous administration of US President Donald Trump, Washington pulled out of the JCPOA. The upcoming talks are expected to revive dialogue in light of the escalating conflict and persuade Iran to provide credible guarantees that its nuclear program remains exclusively civilian in nature. However, the influence of the European parties has waned in recent months. The last E3-Iran meeting was held in January, shortly before Trump assumed office. Subsequent indirect US-Iran talks, brokered by Oman, failed to yield results, with the sixth planned round cancelled after the Israeli military strikes on Iran. Although not directly involved this time, the EU has played a behind-the-scenes role as a diplomatic facilitator, attempting to bridge divides among European countries and even between Europe and the US. The EU's presence in the talks has visibly diminished since the tenure of former High Representative Federica Mogherini, who was a prominent architect and staunch defender of the 2015 deal. Despite its limited visibility, the EU hopes that its coordinating efforts can still shape the outcome of the talks or at least keep the door open for renewed multilateral diplomacy on Iran's nuclear file.
Euronews
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
EU to influence Iran nuclear talks from side-lines in Geneva
The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom - collectively known as the E3 - will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva to discuss Iran's nuclear program tomorrow in Geneva. While the EU has historically played a key role in negotiations with Iran, it seems unlikely to participate in the formal talks. When asked by Euronews whether EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas would participate in the talks, a European Commission spokesperson gave no clear confirmation. 'We have always expressed our openness to dialogue and negotiation. When such dialogue occurs, we will inform you,' the spokesperson said, leaving open the possibility of a last-minute invitation. Before the E3-Iran meeting, the European ministers are expected to meet with Kallas at Germany's permanent mission in Geneva however – a move that highlights the EU's continued efforts to coordinate and facilitate diplomacy, even if indirectly. The EU has long played a central role in the Iran nuclear negotiations, particularly through the High Representative for Foreign Affairs in the broader EU+3 format – which once included other countries such as the United States, Russia, and China. Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the UN-brokered nuclear agreement aimed at lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran's compliance with nuclear obligations, the EU served as a key facilitator and guardian of the agreement's implementation. Under the previous administration of Donald Trump the US pulled out of the JCPOA. The upcoming talks are expected to revive dialogue in light of the escalating conflict and persuade Iran to provide credible guarantees that its nuclear program remains exclusively civilian in nature. However, the influence of the European parties has waned in recent months. The last E3-Iran meeting was held in January 2025, shortly before US President Donald Trump assumed office. Subsequent indirect US-Iran talks, brokered by Oman, failed to yield results, with the sixth planned round cancelled after the Israeli military strikes on Iran. Although not directly involved this time, the EU has played a behind-the-scenes role as a diplomatic facilitator, attempting to bridge divides among European countries and even between Europe and the United States. The EU's presence in the talks has visibly diminished since the tenure of former High Representative Federica Mogherini, who was a prominent architect and staunch defender of the 2015 deal. Despite its limited visibility, the EU hopes that its coordinating efforts can still shape the outcome of the talks or at least keep the door open for renewed multilateral diplomacy on Iran's nuclear file. "Iran possesses a threat not only to Israel, (but also) to the region and to Europe," Israel's ambassador to the European Union and NATO, Haim Regev, told Euronews in an interview on Thursday. "They are involved in promoting terror, they are involved with provocation, they are involved in many, many acts. So they are already the main cause for instability in the region and for the world," he explained. Regev was speaking to Euronews as day seven of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of ending. Early on Thursday, Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at Israel, with one striking the Soroka Medical Centre in Be'er Sheva. The barrage from Iran appeared to be in direct retaliation for Israeli strikes on Tehran's nuclear infrastructure the previous day. "Iran has a clear plan for the annihilation of the state of Israel," Regev said. "In the last period, we saw that Iran is accelerating its programme, its plan, in two main aspects. First of all, its nuclear programme and second, production of missiles, surface-to-surface missiles. So we come to a point where we saw we need to act to remove this threat." Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran on Friday morning, killing several key figures from within the country's security apparatus and a number of nuclear scientists. The first wave of strikes, which involved around 200 fighter jets, took out at least four senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, as well as hitting nuclear and military targets across the country. But Regev dismissed the idea that the main target of the IDF operation is regime change in Iran. "The target of this military operation is to remove the nuclear threat and the missile threat. As I mentioned, Iran has a concrete and operative plan. And this is the main goal of this, our military operation right now," he told Euronews. The conflict has also led to an escalating war of words, particularly between US President Donald Trump and senior Iranian officials. When asked by reporters on Wednesday whether he intended to bring the US military into the conflict to strike Iran alongside Israel, Trump said, "I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do." While Trump appeared to avoid a direct commitment to military action, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu interpreted his comments as a show of support and, in a television address later on Wednesday evening, thanked Trump for "standing by us". Into that mix came Iran's mission to the United Nations, which said no officials from the country would "grovel at the gates of the White House" to reach a nuclear deal with the United States. And it's Iran's nuclear programme which sits at the core of the current military escalation. Iran was previously subject to an international nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which saw the country receive sanctions relief in exchange for strict limits on its nuclear activities. During his first term in office, Trump withdrew the US from the pact in 2018, slamming it as "The worst deal ever negotiated" and slapping new sanctions on Iran. Since then, the other signatories to the deal have scrambled to keep Iran in compliance, but Tehran considers the deal void and has continued with uranium enrichment, which at current levels sits at 60%. That's still technically below the weapons-grade levels of 90% but is still far above the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA. Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is peaceful and purely for civilian purposes. Israel, on the other hand, says Tehran is working towards the construction of a nuclear weapon, which could be used against Israel. "We, as democracy, when we go to a war, it's only if we do not have a choice or it was initiated by the other side. So we went to this war because we didn't see any other choice," Regev said. "Israel did not come here to solve the problem of the world. Israel come here to solve its own threat that come from Iran. But due to the success, I see here an opportunity." "And I hope that diplomacy will play a role, but this time will be more concrete, practical with the specific outcomes," Regev concluded.
