Latest news with #ElixirEquities
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Traditional IT in a spot; betting on 4 midcap platform companies: Dipan Mehta
Dipan Mehta, Director, Elixir Equities, says traditional Indian IT software services companies face disruption from global platform companies, specialized local players like Newgen Technologies, Aurionpro and Sagility, and Fortune 500 clients establishing global capability centers (GCCs) in India. These clients are investing heavily in innovation and leveraging India's human resources directly, impacting the traditional software services model. This shift is redirecting employment and innovation away from established Indian IT firms. ADVERTISEMENT Mehta further says companies like RateGain Technologies, Affle India, Zaggle Prepaid, IndiaMART InterMESH are the future. Where do you think Indian IT is headed given that certain global factors are not completely at rest and the kind of exposure IT has to the US? Dipan Mehta: Indian IT industry is in a bit of a spot. The growth rates have secularly come down. I have been tracking the industry for the last 25 years. The Y2K moment was about 25-26 years ago or so. These companies have shown phenomenal growth over the past several decades. But in the last three-four years, growth rates have come down to a trickle. They are as low as 3.5-4% profit growth for the top five-six companies. There are many reasons we can go into IT. But from an investor's perspective, when we are reviewing a sector or a company, we want a minimum 15% topline growth rate on a consistent basis over a three-five-year period. Only then can we get decent returns and have some sort of a wealth building process and that does not seem to be happening in any of the traditional software services companies with the exclusion of maybe a Persistent Systems or a Coforge. By and large, the largecap and midcap software service companies are in a secular slow growth mode and that is a big problem for investors in those companies. We are looking at AI becoming more centrestage. We are looking at more and more tech in everyone's life. Tech usage is going higher, but Indian IT companies are losing their importance. So, who will be the beneficiary in India and what should Indian investors look at because if AI and tech enablement is the basic theme, how can one maximize profit from IT? Dipan Mehta: Who are the winners is a billion dollar question. There is no doubt that India has a lot of tech talent and the industry is investing heavily into training for AI but there are very few in the listed space. But there is another trend that we should talk about. There was a time when a lot of the enterprises would develop their own systems, meaning either they make it themselves or get it made by Indian software services companies. That was application development and application maintenance and the IP for these applications was with the enterprise. Now, the entire thinking has changed and company after company wants to go on the cloud, wants to use a platform or a product and they want to reduce the cost of investing in technology. Also, there are so many technological disruptions taking place and they want to avoid those risks as well. ADVERTISEMENT So, the companies which focus on platforms and products will be the winners and right now in the Indian ecosystem, only two or three companies come to mind. One is Newgen Technologies, which is more of a platform product company; then there is Aurionpro, which is more of a platform product company, and then there are certain very specialised players like there are certain specialised players with focus on specific verticals which may do well. But it is very difficult to find good plays within the technology space listed in India. ADVERTISEMENT Given the fact that the sector is going into such an environment where we do not know what discretionary spending will be like, and what AI will do for the IT space, what should investors do and how should they read onto the valuation picture? Dipan Mehta: Valuations come into play when you actually see growth. If there is no growth, what is the point of taking any further study in the company in terms of where it is trading at, and what its valuations are? Sure, they can get cheap from time to time, we could have solid rallies in them, but at the end of the day, when you take a two, three, five, ten-year view, I am not sure these companies can deliver solid returns going forward. I think finally the Indian IT company has been disrupted by these product platform companies, global companies, and also they have been disrupted by their own Fortune 500 clients coming into India. The clients are the biggest source of employment. They are setting up their own global capability centres (GCCs). They are investing heavily in the front office, back office. Top level innovation teams are coming into India. So, globally India is still taking advantage of the massive amount of human resources available at a reasonable cost within India, it is just that it is not flowing through the software services companies. ADVERTISEMENT I think these companies are truly in a big spot and there is no scenario where they can go back to that double-digit, 12-13% type of growth rate. The unfortunate part is that – as I read from Accenture's management commentary – even a 7-8% growth year-on-year is a good quarter for them. So, if a 7-8% growth is a good quarter for the management of such a large company, what does it tell the investor? Investors are not going to be happy with 7-8% topline growth. There is a mismatch of expectations of the investor versus what the managements expect they can grow at. If I use the word new tech, there is this entire digital brigade, Policybazaar or for that matter Zomato or Swiggy, or even Paytm. Then, there are niche product companies like RateGain which essentially are in the business of SaaS or providing software services. Where would you pick your spots in this niche IT space? Which are some of the unique companies like Affle, which are small today but can really become giant in five years? Dipan Mehta: You have taken the discussion in the right direction and there are these whole host of B2C tech platforms and that is where a lot of Indian investors are focusing on. Right now, we are classifying them as consumption players or as fintech players or as edtech or for that matter travel tech. But these are the real technology companies in India that investors should focus on. And there are some great stories over there. I will give the usual disclosure that our views are biased. I think companies like RateGain Technologies, Affle India, Zaggle Prepaid, IndiaMART InterMESH are the future. Of course, there are the larger ones like Paytm and Swiggy and Zomato, but these large platform companies including Policybazaar are still bleeding in a way and eventually when they get into profitability we will see what returns they can give. But there is a whole host of midcap platform companies that I named which are generating solid profits and cash flow. They have their ups and downs, but at the end of the day, they will deliver very good returns over the next three to five years as they scale up the business model and take advantage of operating leverage. ADVERTISEMENT
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Traditional IT in a spot; betting on 4 midcap platform companies: Dipan Mehta
Dipan Mehta , Director, Elixir Equities , says traditional Indian IT software services companies face disruption from global platform companies, specialized local players like Newgen Technologies , Aurionpro and Sagility, and Fortune 500 clients establishing global capability centers (GCCs) in India. These clients are investing heavily in innovation and leveraging India's human resources directly, impacting the traditional software services model. This shift is redirecting employment and innovation away from established Indian IT firms. Mehta further says companies like RateGain Technologies, Affle India, Zaggle Prepaid, IndiaMART InterMESH are the future. Where do you think Indian IT is headed given that certain global factors are not completely at rest and the kind of exposure IT has to the US? Dipan Mehta: Indian IT industry is in a bit of a spot. The growth rates have secularly come down. I have been tracking the industry for the last 25 years. The Y2K moment was about 25-26 years ago or so. These companies have shown phenomenal growth over the past several decades. But in the last three-four years, growth rates have come down to a trickle. They are as low as 3.5-4% profit growth for the top five-six companies. There are many reasons we can go into IT. But from an investor's perspective, when we are reviewing a sector or a company, we want a minimum 15% topline growth rate on a consistent basis over a three-five-year period. Only then can we get decent returns and have some sort of a wealth building process and that does not seem to be happening in any of the traditional software services companies with the exclusion of maybe a Persistent Systems or a Coforge. By and large, the largecap and midcap software service companies are in a secular slow growth mode and that is a big problem for investors in those companies. We are looking at AI becoming more centrestage. We are looking at more and more tech in everyone's life. Tech usage is going higher, but Indian IT companies are losing their importance. So, who will be the beneficiary in India and what should Indian investors look at because if AI and tech enablement is the basic theme, how can one maximize profit from IT? Dipan Mehta: Who are the winners is a billion dollar question. There is no doubt that India has a lot of tech talent and the industry is investing heavily into training for AI but there are very few in the listed space. Live Events You Might Also Like: Bearish on software services stocks; biggest event for market is still July tariff deadline: Dipan Mehta But there is another trend that we should talk about. There was a time when a lot of the enterprises would develop their own systems, meaning either they make it themselves or get it made by Indian software services companies. That was application development and application maintenance and the IP for these applications was with the enterprise. Now, the entire thinking has changed and company after company wants to go on the cloud, wants to use a platform or a product and they want to reduce the cost of investing in technology. Also, there are so many technological disruptions taking place and they want to avoid those risks as well. So, the companies which focus on platforms and products will be the winners and right now in the Indian ecosystem, only two or three companies come to mind. One is Newgen Technologies, which is more of a platform product company; then there is Aurionpro, which is more of a platform product company, and then there are certain very specialised players like Sagility. So there are certain specialised players with focus on specific verticals which may do well. But it is very difficult to find good plays within the technology space listed in India. Given the fact that the sector is going into such an environment where we do not know what discretionary spending will be like, and what AI will do for the IT space, what should investors do and how should they read onto the valuation picture? Dipan Mehta : Valuations come into play when you actually see growth. If there is no growth, what is the point of taking any further study in the company in terms of where it is trading at, and what its valuations are? Sure, they can get cheap from time to time, we could have solid rallies in them, but at the end of the day, when you take a two, three, five, ten-year view, I am not sure these companies can deliver solid returns going forward. You Might Also Like: Looking for narrative stocks? These four themes look promising: Anand Radhakrishnan I think finally the Indian IT company has been disrupted by these product platform companies , global companies, and also they have been disrupted by their own Fortune 500 clients coming into India. The clients are the biggest source of employment. They are setting up their own global capability centres (GCCs). They are investing heavily in the front office, back office. Top level innovation teams are coming into India. So, globally India is still taking advantage of the massive amount of human resources available at a reasonable cost within India, it is just that it is not flowing through the software services companies. I think these companies are truly in a big spot and there is no scenario where they can go back to that double-digit, 12-13% type of growth rate. The unfortunate part is that – as I read from Accenture's management commentary – even a 7-8% growth year-on-year is a good quarter for them. So, if a 7-8% growth is a good quarter for the management of such a large company, what does it tell the investor? Investors are not going to be happy with 7-8% topline growth. There is a mismatch of expectations of the investor versus what the managements expect they can grow at. If I use the word new tech, there is this entire digital brigade, Policybazaar or for that matter Zomato or Swiggy, or even Paytm. Then, there are niche product companies like RateGain which essentially are in the business of SaaS or providing software services. Where would you pick your spots in this niche IT space? Which are some of the unique companies like Affle, which are small today but can really become giant in five years? Dipan Mehta: You have taken the discussion in the right direction and there are these whole host of B2C tech platforms and that is where a lot of Indian investors are focusing on. Right now, we are classifying them as consumption players or as fintech players or as edtech or for that matter travel tech. But these are the real technology companies in India that investors should focus on. And there are some great stories over there. I will give the usual disclosure that our views are biased. I think companies like RateGain Technologies, Affle India, Zaggle Prepaid, IndiaMART InterMESH are the future. Of course, there are the larger ones like Paytm and Swiggy and Zomato, but these large platform companies including Policybazaar are still bleeding in a way and eventually when they get into profitability we will see what returns they can give. But there is a whole host of midcap platform companies that I named which are generating solid profits and cash flow. They have their ups and downs, but at the end of the day, they will deliver very good returns over the next three to five years as they scale up the business model and take advantage of operating leverage. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Bearish on software services stocks; biggest event for market is still July tariff deadline: Dipan Mehta
Dipan Mehta, Director, Elixir Equities, says the software services industry faces challenges due to a lack of innovation and transition to new technologies. While some mid-cap companies may experience growth, the industry is generally in a slow-growth phase. Investors should consider new-generation software and platform companies with differentiated business models for better returns, as traditional firms may not deliver significant value. ADVERTISEMENT What is your take on some of these crude sensitive sectors given that crude prices have cooled off from elevated levels? Whenever we see a spike, all reports keep flowing in with a target over $100 per barrel mark. But the price movement is showing a reversal right now. Which sectors offer valuation comfort now? Dipan Mehta: No, crude has not had much of an impact. It is rallying because of the Iran-Israel skirmishes and the subsequent correction has not had a material impact on any of the stock price movements. Investors do not feel that that is a major threat or a major benefit for any particular sector and over time, the importance of crude, its impact on inflation, and its impact on material prices in India is reducing. The focus is elsewhere on other commodities, like on rare metals and even copper and aluminium prices make as much of an impact as crude oil prices. So, I am not that much perturbed about crude oil volatility. At the end of the day, I do not think it is going to have a material impact on any of the consumers or the producing companies. What are you making of the entire market breadth right now given the kind of fall from the day high we have seen in Nifty yesterday? Nifty Bank and the broader markets continue to be resilient. Do you believe that a similar trading setup could continue for the near term? Dipan Mehta: I think so. Broadly markets are showing sideways movement and on the liquidity front, the supply is matching demand, and that is one thing which I can assess over there. Secondly, 9th July is a major event for the markets. It is just about two or three weeks away or so and that is the time when the pause which President Trump has announced, the 90-day pause gets over and then what happens after that is important. Is it going to be extended or is there going to be reimposition or are we going to have any trade deals? I think that will determine the sentiment from 9th July onwards. Apart from that, we are pretty much in a low news flow situation. The earnings are out of the way. We know that the monsoon is doing well. RBI's interest rate has come through and we have seen also tax cuts have had an impact on tax collection. At the same time, it certainly has improved urban and rural consumption. So, by and large, the domestic fundamentals are gradually improving. Although I was disappointed with the direct tax collection on the corporate front, it shows that maybe earnings are slowing down but let us see. The biggest event in the market now still remains the 9th of July deadline on Trump tariffs. What is your take on not just Coforge but the overall midcap IT space because just yesterday, we have seen comments coming in from KPIT Tech and they were sounding cautious on the growth outlook ahead though for Coforge for now they are retaining some of their guidance that was given earlier. How do you see the midcap IT space flaring at this point in time and the demand environment? Dipan Mehta: The going is very tough for software services companies and we have seen that over the last 25 years there has hardly been any transition from one technology to another and to another, but the basic business remains the same – developing and maintaining applications for corporates. None of the Indian IT companies have gone on to become great platform players or great technology companies with products which delight the customer. So, I am very bearish on the entire software services industry. ADVERTISEMENT There could be a few companies within the midcap space like Persistent Systems or to an extent Coforge which are delivering superior growth rates because they are focusing on a particular vertical or because of their client concentration, but by and large, the entire industry is in a slow growth zone and investors need to get out of it just as they did out of FMCG. So, my view on software service companies is very negative. But there could be a handful of new generation software companies which may do well, platform companies like Sagility or Aurionpro, IZMO, and other such smaller companies. There is Newgen Tech also which has a slightly differentiated business model. There is Oracle, but there the earnings are quite volatile. We need to look for new business models within the software space. The existing companies are just not going to deliver great returns or value creation going forward. ADVERTISEMENT What does one do in today's world when everything is getting indirectly or directly impacted by AI? We know that AI is tech enabled and yet in India we are struggling to find a single company which would be either giving AI as a service or as a solution. How ironic is it that AI is disrupting everything but in India very few AI companies are available for investors? Dipan Mehta: Yes, it is disappointing. As I said, Indian software services companies are just too focused on providing support services to Fortune 500 companies. They do not have the aspiration to build products or services which go directly to customer or really high-tech pathbreaking technologies. Why don't we have an AI engine like DeepSeek? That is really surprising that nobody has thought of developing that. But I think that is the pressure that is coming from their investors who are shortsighted and just want these companies to deliver steady growth. First it was high-teen growth, then it came to 10-12% and now the growth rates are in high-single digit and they are happy with it. ADVERTISEMENT If we look at Accenture's CEO statement, he says that it was a great quarter for them and the quarter growth rate was just 7%. As an investor, how can you have a great quarter when there is a 7% growth rate and that is true across Indian IT services companies. You look at any of the management releases of the top companies – 2-3% quarter-on-quarter growth and the CEOs are patting themselves on the back. So, I am very disappointed with the sector as a whole. It has been a great wealth creator for me personally. But the way these companies are performing just now, there is no ray of hope that these companies can go back to 13-14% growth rate which is the minimum required threshold to get decent returns on your portfolio. We are looking out for new stories and there could be a few platform companies, a few edtech companies and a few travel tech companies like RateGain and then there is Zaggle Prepaid. These are all expensive but at least they are tech companies with a difference. ADVERTISEMENT So, what is not expensive and still growing and it is fairly priced or reasonably priced across the board, not just tech? Dipan Mehta: Oh, that is a difficult one to answer because there are not so many pockets of cheap valuation. As a sector, banks, NBFCs still offer the best risk-return profile but it is becoming more and more of a red ocean. It is getting cyclical as well, but we are looking at a nice up cycle in the NBFC space, so you could ride that. But by and large it is getting extremely difficult. At the same time, within sectors also there is a lot of disparity in growth rates and similar companies are showing different types of growth rates and on the whole also there are many positive investment trends, like investment in capital goods, within that there is renewable which is distribution as well as renewable equipment and then there is the banking and NBFCs, there are retail companies also. I thought a lot of specialty retail companies came with a good set of numbers. Cement is looking up. But on the whole, at this point there is nothing attractive which is available at reasonable valuations and still showing some growth rates. We are also searching for new ideas but let us see something or the other will definitely crop up. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
Regional liquor players better placed amid price hikes: Dipan Mehta
"One big concern with Maruti is this particular absence of a coherent, I would say, or very aggressive EV strategy and second part with Maruti is the fact that the freshness of the models is gone," says Dipan Mehta , Director, Elixir Equities. Help us with your take on this news flow because yes, it is not just Maruti Suzuki which is now being vocal or some reports are suggesting that the production could take a hit, but some of the other major OEMs have been showing concern regarding this. But along with that we also have that global news flow where between US and China the trade deal respected to the rare earth is through. Do you believe for the auto majors it could be a serious issue in the near term, but someone should look at the bigger picture? Give us your sense on this whole news flow. Dipan Mehta: See, it is certainly going to have a temporary effect but that is more restricted to the EVs and not so much to the ICE vehicles. It was a semiconductor supply chain which was getting more and more difficult for the entire auto Oem global. So, it is going to have some temporary effect but the bigger picture here for Maruti per se and for a record we have a sizable investment from our perspective at least in our portfolios on Maruti Suzuki and we are getting increasingly cautious and concern because for one the company is well behind the curve when it comes to new electric vehicles. Mahindra & Mahindra clearly has the lead as do a lot of the other Chinese companies operating in India and they are gaining market share in a significant way. Right now, it may appear to be small, but Maruti lost three percentage point market share in the last 12 months or so and that could turn out to be even more sharper as more and more EVs come into play. So, one big concern with Maruti is this particular absence of a coherent, I would say, or very aggressive EV strategy and second part with Maruti is the fact that the freshness of the models is gone. See, Maruti did very well for last two-three years because of many new models coming in, but now the lineup is not as exciting as it was looking at two-three years ago or so and there is far more competition. So, I am getting a bit cautious on Maruti. I have not thrown in the towel as yet, but within the auto space there are two companies which come to mind, usual disclosure we and our clients are invested, one is, of course, M&M which should do very well, even the tractor division should do very well because of better monsoon and last month numbers also were good and second, of course, is Eicher Motors . Both these companies if you track, the volume figures monthly, you will be quite impressed on the progress which they are making. Live Events Help us with your take on this whole news flow. It has been a steep hike in terms of the prices. The volumes are expected to take a hit. But like Karan was highlighting, two segments particularly can have an impact be it the low prestige segment and the luxury segment. Which segment do you believe can have the most hit with respect to this news flow and what implications can it have on the volumes? Dipan Mehta: I think Karan summarised it pretty well and basically, all I can add over here is that in our assessment of the alcobev industry, it is better to be with the regional players, the likes of Radico Khaitan or Allied Blenders. Of course, Allied Blenders is not a regional player. It is India's largest alcohol company in terms of volume. But there are other smaller players as well, Piccadily comes to mind, Som Distilleries. We have to work in this industry through these regional players. They are able to manage the regulatory environment quite well. But there is, of course, the risk that a particular state in which they have a high sales concentration, may increase the levy of taxes. But on the whole, see, eventually these things do get absorbed and there could be a dip in volumes for the next 6 to 12 months or so and effect could come on the company's corporate profitability as well. But these are great long-term secular growth stories. And if you buy them when the chips are down, when the cycle is down, then when the demand revives, these companies tend to have a super increase in their profitability as we have seen in the past. So, it is a sector we like to be overweight in. But I think let us just see the impact of this play out for the next couple of quarters or so. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Economic Times
11-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Selectivity is key as markets enter narrow, range-bound phase: Dipan Mehta
But one thing I can tell you and stress in a very important way is that whatever the outcome of 9th July is or whatever the way the market is going to move forward, it is going to get far more narrow and selective. Synopsis Dipan Mehta suggests that the market's consolidation follows the RBI's positive policy move, anticipating improved corporate earnings due to lower tax rates and a potentially better monsoon. The market's future hinges on the outcome of the US-China trade talks and potential tariffs. Mehta emphasizes a shift towards selective stock picking as market movements become more narrow. "All the expectation of this particular major event because once this uncertainty is over and done with, only then the real trend will play through because if there are going to be heightened tariffs, then you can expect all equity markets including ours to drift lower, maybe even crack further from these levels," says Dipan Mehta, Director, Elixir Equities. ADVERTISEMENT Firstly, help us with your take on the markets because post the policy the markets did see a great run up but seem to be consolidating. How do you see this consolidation and which other sectors do you believe can participate in the next rally? Dipan Mehta: So, the kind of googly which was bowled by the RBI was very well received by the market and what is supposed to happen three or four months down the line actually has happened last week itself and that has been something which is very positive and we have seen the current coming through in lot of the lenders because of that and eventually, it will percolate down to all the other industries which are dependent on lending to grow their business, like say, real estate or automobiles or capital goods for that matter. So, I think that what was a much needed boost because earnings were flagging and now with this particular step taken by the RBI, we should definitely see improvement in corporate earnings which will also be, I would say, benefited by lower tax rates as the tax cuts will also have already kicked in and maybe a better monsoon as well, because at these levels the markets are, I would say, pretty much in fair price to slightly on the expensive zone and for the stock market prices to move up from these levels we need a lot of support coming through from corporate earnings and all the various aspects and the variables are in place to lift corporate earnings but till that does not happen I would not bet on the market crossing the previous highs, till then you may expect sideways movement, but at the same time looking at the corporate earnings, I would say, a lot of selectivity has to now come into stock selection and portfolio management and last but not the least we have this 9th July deadline of the 90-day pause getting over for Trump tariffs, how that will play out also will have a major bearing on the price movements over the next few months or quarters. But as an India strategist, I mean, what should your strategy be because the big overhang continues to be what is going to happen on tariffs. Yes, there is some headway now between US and China, but it is still not a done deal. You do not know which party is going to slap how much tariff on what product. Dipan Mehta: That is right. I think for the time being that is the reason why the markets also are pinned down and are moving in a very narrow range. So, all the expectation of this particular major event because once this uncertainty is over and done with, only then the real trend will play through because if there are going to be heightened tariffs, then you can expect all equity markets including ours to drift lower, maybe even crack further from these levels. But if the tariffs are reasonable and kind of business as usual and if we have the support of corporate earnings, then global markets including ours will start to move up. So, it is like inflection point for the entire global equity markets, which way it will tip we cannot say because President Trump is very unpredictable and how it will play out is anybody's guess. All we can hope for is a positive outcome. But one thing I can tell you and stress in a very important way is that whatever the outcome of 9th July is or whatever the way the market is going to move forward, it is going to get far more narrow and selective. Right from 2020 to September 24, it was like all round bull run, everything did well, all portfolios did well. I think that there is going to be a change over there from September 24 onwards and then in this financial year and calendar year as well stocks will get very selective, sectors will get selective and within sectors also stocks will be moving on in a selective way. So, it is going to really test our stock picking skills in the next few months and quarters. 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