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Time of India
06-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Charting the global economy: US jobs data eases pressure on Fed
(Bloomberg) --Fresh US jobs figures took pressure off the Federal Reserve to consider an interest-rate cut later this month, likely leaving the central bank on hold at least until the fall. While employers added more jobs in June than forecast and the unemployment rate ticked lower, growth in private payrolls weakened. Elsewhere, the manufacturing slowdown in Asia deepened. Survey data showed purchasing managers indexes for Taiwan, Indonesia and Vietnam firmly in contraction territory. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Tinnitus: what this grandson discovered will surprise you Hearing Magazine Undo Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy , markets and geopolitics: US Bloomberg US job growth exceeded expectations in June as an unusual surge in public education employment masked a slowdown in hiring across the rest of the economy. Private payrolls rose the least since October, largely reflecting hiring in health care. The jobless rate declined to 4.1%, indicating employers remain reticent to lay off workers. Live Events Bloomberg A buildup of unsold houses sitting on the market for weeks is becoming a new reality in once-booming housing areas across the Sun Belt. Real estate agents in the South and Southwest say they're seeing more people list homes, giving up on hopes that mortgage rates will drop anytime soon. In Florida, homeowners are fleeing soaring insurance costs, and in Colorado, investors are culling rental properties. Europe Bloomberg Euro-area inflation settled at the European Central Bank's target in June, strengthening arguments to press pause on a year-long campaign of interest-rate cuts. A stronger euro and lower energy costs are helping keep price pressures in check — as is lackluster expansion by the region's 20-nation economy. Bloomberg The UK economy grew in the first quarter by the most in a year as Britons spent more and saved less before the Labour government's tax hikes and extra US tariffs came into effect. The outlook has darkened since the start of April amid a sharp drop in employment, weak retail sales and plunging exports to the US. Bloomberg Swedish retail sales fell the most in more than three decades in May, continuing a run of disappointing data and increasing pressure on the country's central bank to lower rates again. The slump compounds the recent below-forecasts data readings for Sweden including a surprise contraction in first-quarter economic output and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9% in May. Asia Bloomberg The slowdown in Asia's manufacturing activity deepened further in June, a warning sign for the region's growth prospects as tariffs on shipments to the US are poised to increase next week. Export-reliant economies including Taiwan and Vietnam saw their purchasing managers indexes deteriorate further, with factories reporting a continued decline in new orders, output and staffing as the trade war saps demand. Bloomberg Japan's annual wage negotiations concluded with the largest pay increase in 34 years, an outcome that supports the central bank's view that a cycle of higher wages and prices is emerging. Workers at 5,162 companies affiliated with the nation's largest union federation Rengo secured an average wage increase of 5.25%, according to the final update of pay deals announced by the union group. Bloomberg US President Donald Trump floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan's cars as talks between the two nations continued just before a slew of higher duties are set to kick in if a trade deal isn't reached. Emerging Markets Bloomberg Cargo thefts in Mexico topped 24,000 in 2024, up about 16%, data from transportation risk consultancy Overhaul show. That trails the US and Europe in total incidents. But in loss-ratio terms, which compare the number of thefts to economic activity, Mexico is the worst in the world. World Bloomberg Poland's central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates after a one-month pause and said inflation is likely to ease within its target in the coming months. A day after the Wednesday move, central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said the reduction was not the beginning of a cycle of monetary easing, even as he held out for another potential move in September. Tanzania also cut, while Ethiopia and the Bank of Central African States kept borrowing costs on hold.
Economic Times
06-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Charting the global economy: US jobs data eases pressure on Fed
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Popular in Rise Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads (Bloomberg) --Fresh US jobs figures took pressure off the Federal Reserve to consider an interest-rate cut later this month, likely leaving the central bank on hold at least until the employers added more jobs in June than forecast and the unemployment rate ticked lower, growth in private payrolls the manufacturing slowdown in Asia deepened. Survey data showed purchasing managers indexes for Taiwan, Indonesia and Vietnam firmly in contraction are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy , markets and geopolitics:US job growth exceeded expectations in June as an unusual surge in public education employment masked a slowdown in hiring across the rest of the economy. Private payrolls rose the least since October, largely reflecting hiring in health care. The jobless rate declined to 4.1%, indicating employers remain reticent to lay off workers.A buildup of unsold houses sitting on the market for weeks is becoming a new reality in once-booming housing areas across the Sun Belt. Real estate agents in the South and Southwest say they're seeing more people list homes, giving up on hopes that mortgage rates will drop anytime soon. In Florida, homeowners are fleeing soaring insurance costs, and in Colorado, investors are culling rental properties. Euro-area inflation settled at the European Central Bank's target in June, strengthening arguments to press pause on a year-long campaign of interest-rate cuts. A stronger euro and lower energy costs are helping keep price pressures in check — as is lackluster expansion by the region's 20-nation UK economy grew in the first quarter by the most in a year as Britons spent more and saved less before the Labour government's tax hikes and extra US tariffs came into effect. The outlook has darkened since the start of April amid a sharp drop in employment, weak retail sales and plunging exports to the retail sales fell the most in more than three decades in May, continuing a run of disappointing data and increasing pressure on the country's central bank to lower rates again. The slump compounds the recent below-forecasts data readings for Sweden including a surprise contraction in first-quarter economic output and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9% in slowdown in Asia's manufacturing activity deepened further in June, a warning sign for the region's growth prospects as tariffs on shipments to the US are poised to increase next week. Export-reliant economies including Taiwan and Vietnam saw their purchasing managers indexes deteriorate further, with factories reporting a continued decline in new orders, output and staffing as the trade war saps annual wage negotiations concluded with the largest pay increase in 34 years, an outcome that supports the central bank's view that a cycle of higher wages and prices is emerging. Workers at 5,162 companies affiliated with the nation's largest union federation Rengo secured an average wage increase of 5.25%, according to the final update of pay deals announced by the union President Donald Trump floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan's cars as talks between the two nations continued just before a slew of higher duties are set to kick in if a trade deal isn't thefts in Mexico topped 24,000 in 2024, up about 16%, data from transportation risk consultancy Overhaul show. That trails the US and Europe in total incidents. But in loss-ratio terms, which compare the number of thefts to economic activity, Mexico is the worst in the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates after a one-month pause and said inflation is likely to ease within its target in the coming months. A day after the Wednesday move, central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said the reduction was not the beginning of a cycle of monetary easing, even as he held out for another potential move in September. Tanzania also cut, while Ethiopia and the Bank of Central African States kept borrowing costs on hold.
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Business Standard
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Gold rally at risk as US jobs data, tariff moves stir volatility
Gold: Up for the second day as US Dollar slumps Gold Performance: Spot gold with a daily gain of 1.49 per cent at $3312 on June 30; thus, it posted the largest six-month gain since 2007 as it rose more than 25 per cent in the fi₹t half of 2025. On Tuesday, the yellow metal traded between $3302 and $3358 as it rallied to the highest since June 24 before surrendering some of its daily gains on a recovering US Dollar. At the time of writing this report, the spot gold was changing hands at $3338, up 1.06 per cent on the day, while the MCX August contract at ₹97,287 was up by 1.26 per cent. Trump Tax bill passes Senate: On Tuesday, the US Senate narrowly passed $3.3 trillion Trump's tax and spending cut bill with a 51-50 vote. The bill, which includes provisions to raise the debt limit, cut Medicaid and other social safety net programs, and tax breaks for certain groups, will go to the House, which is expected to vote on the bill this week. As the bill faces opposition from some of the Republicans, it is difficult to assess whether it can be passed in the House, which has a slim Republican majority. Sintra European Central bank conference: Fed Chair Powell, at a conference hosted by the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, on July 1, reiterated his wait-and-see stance on rates as he cited a steady US economy. He said that the Fed's decision at the upcoming month-end FOMC meeting will depend on the economic outlook, though he would not take any meeting off the table or put it directly at the table as he signalled a flexible approach in the Fed's future monetary policy. In addition, he said that he expects the impact of tariffs to show up in inflation data in the coming months as uncertainties continue to linger. Data roundup: US data released on July 1 were somewhat better than expected as ISM manufacturing, although it contracted for the fourth straight month in June, came in at 49 -- three-month high-- Vs the estimate of 48.80, but internals were weak as ISM new orde₹ and employment contracted more than expected while prices paid at 69.70 were above the forecast of 69.50. JOLT's job openings (May), supported by hiring in leisure and hospitality, rose to 7,769,000, the highest level since November 2024, and beat the forecast of 7,300,000 as the job openings rate rose from 4.4 per cent to 4.6 per cent versus the forecast of 4.4 per cent. Quits rate rose from 2 per cent to 2.1 per cent (forecast 2 per cent ) while the layoffs rate fell from 1.1 per cent to 1 per cent, though hiring remained mixed in other sectors. Euro-area CPI rose 2 per cent y-o-y in June, up from May's 1.9 per cent as core inflation held steady at 2.3 per cent. Upcoming data: Today's major US data on cards include ADP employment change (June). However, the focus is mainly on the nonfarm payroll report (June) to be released on July 3. The report is likely to show a decline in hiring and an uptick in the employment rate. ISM services report, yet another crucial report, will also be released on the same day. COMEX gold inventory: COMEX gold inventory at 37.04MOz is presently down nearly 17 per cent from the record high of 45.07MOz on demand for physical delivery. China's largest gold mine goes for $1.2 billion acquisition: China's Zijin Mining Group has announced an agreement to acquire Kazakhstan Raygorodok gold mine for $1.2 billion. The mine is currently producing 5.50 tons of gold annually and has a remaining mine life of 16 yea₹. ETF: Total known global gold ETF holdings as on June 30 stood at a two-year high level of 90.56MOz, up over 9per cent YTD as ETFs recorded inflows for the fifth straight week in the week ending June 27. US Dollar and yields: On July 1, the US Dollar Index fell to a fresh cycle low of 96.33, the lowest since February 2022, before recovering on US data and Powell's speech in which he cited the Fed's data-based approach towards further monetary policy decisions. The Index, at the time of writing, was hovering at 96.82, down nearly 0.6per cent on the day. Ten-year yields sank to 4.18per cent, the lowest since May 1, before recovering on US data. Yields at 4.25 per cent were up nearly 2 bps. Gold outlook: Trump's tax bill is set to widen US deficits, which is positive for gold. Gold's $100 rally from June 30th low has been driven primarily by weaker Dollar on rate cut notions and uncertainty ahead of Trump's July 9 tariff deadline. The US data released on Tuesday were mostly encouraging. Going forward, a lot will depend on the US nonfarm payroll report, as a weak job report will boost the rate cut odds. Tariff headlines are expected to create huge volatility until the dust settles. US Dollar Index remains quite vulnerable and is expected to fall further; however, if the US job report turns out to be reasonably strong, the US Dollar Index may stabilise in the very short term, provided Trump's tariff decisions don't hurt the Greenback further. In that scenario, gold will give back a significant portion of its gains made this week. As US nonfarm payroll data, the House voting on Trump's tax bill, and tariff developments occur together this week, the market is expected to be highly choppy and volatile. As the Trump Administration frantically tries to close at least some major deals before the July 9 deadline, a flurry of tariff news is expected to hit traders' screens. We suspect that gold, without the tariff factor as a support, will be vulnerable unless US job data disappoint. Gold is expected to fall sharply in case the Trump Administration decides to extend the July deadline.
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Treasuries Fall as Tariff Concerns Cloud Outlook, ISM Weaker
(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries remained lower amid broad weakness in US assets on Monday, as worries over President Donald Trump's tariff policy swirl at the start of a busy week for data on the health of the world's largest economy. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania At London's New Design Museum, Visitors Get Hands-On Access The market was trading three to six basis points higher across the curve late morning in New York, as yields resumed climbing after a brief pullback on weaker-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data for May. The ISM remains in contraction territory below 50. Longer bond maturities led declines, driving the yield on 10-year debt up more than five basis points to 4.45%. The spread between five- and 30-year yields climbed to within a whisker of 100 basis points, a level it last closed above in 2021. The moves came as US equities fell at the open and a gauge of the dollar approached its lowest level since 2023. 'We can certainly see why the long end of safe haven curves are unloved,' said Rabobank strategists including Richard McGuire, adding the US policy outlook is too cloudy to attract buyers for long-dated Treasuries. Euro-area and UK bonds fell alongside Treasuries, with their yield curves also steepening as the long-end bore the brunt of the selling. That reflects the risk of further trade salvos from the US president, after he announced he would be increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25% to help protect American workers. Trump also said China had violated its trade agreement with the US. Traders await comments from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 1pm, among a number of policymakers scheduled to speak in coming days. The week culminates with the closely-watched US employment report, due on Friday. Vail Hartman, strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note that investors will monitor 'any further confirmation that the Fed's on-hold stance will be retained through the summer months and potentially into the autumn.' What Bloomberg strategists say... ''With bond investors on strike and purchasing managers survey's signaling more inflation, the current bend in the curve can persist Monday.' — Alyce Andres, MLIV Rates Strategist, Chicago Read here Speaking earlier, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the US central bank can remain patient as it assesses risks to both inflation and unemployment. (Adds ISM, Fed speaks, upddates yields, and BMO quote) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Treasurys fall as tariff uncertainty clouds outlook before data
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries fell amid a broad selloff of US assets as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff policy continued to swirl at the start of a busy week for data on the health of the world's largest economy. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Longer bond maturities led the drop, driving the yield on 10-year debt up four basis points to 4.44%. The spread between five- and 30-year yields (^TYX) climbed to within a whisker of 100 basis points, a level it last closed above in 2021. The moves came as US equity futures pointed to a lower open and a gauge of the dollar approached its lowest since 2023. 'We can certainly see why the long end of safe haven curves are unloved,' said Rabobank strategists including Richard McGuire, adding the US policy outlook is too cloudy to attract buyers for long-dated Treasuries. Euro-area and UK bonds fell alongside Treasuries, with their yield curves also steepening as the long-end bore the brunt of the selling. That reflects the risk of further trade salvos from the US president, after he announced he would be increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25% to help protect American workers. He also said China had violated its trade agreement with the US. Traders will next focus on headline US ISM manufacturing data for May due on Monday, forecast to show an improvement but remain in contraction territory below 50. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell is among a number of policymakers scheduled to speak later in the day, with the week culminating in payrolls data on Friday. YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
