Latest news with #EuropeanUnion.
Deccan Herald
06-07-2025
- Business
- Deccan Herald
Investors head into Trump tariff deadline benumbed and blase
Singapore/New York: Global investors are heading into US President Donald Trump's Wednesday deadline for trade tariffs palpably unexcited and prepared for a range of benign scenarios that they believe are already priced days before the end of a 90-day pause he announced on his April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs, Trump said the first batch of letters outlining the tariff levels they would face on exports to the United States would be sent to 12 countries on who have been tracking this date for months expect more details to emerge in the coming days and protracted uncertainty too, anticipating Trump will not be able to complete deals with all of America's trading partners in the coming says tariff letters to 12 countries signed, going out they are not overly concerned..'The market has gotten much more comfortable, more sanguine, when it comes to tariff news,' said Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset at Neuberger Berman in New York..'The markets think that there is enough 'squishiness' in the deadlines – absent any major surprise – to not be too unsettled by more tariff news and believe that the worst-case scenarios are off the table now.'.Both the tariff levels and effective dates have become moving targets. Trump said on Friday that tariffs ranging up to 70 per cent could go into effect on August 1, levels far higher than the 10 per cent-50 per cent range he announced in far, the US administration has a limited deal with Britain and an in-principle agreement with that had been anticipated with India and Japan have failed to materialize, and there have been setbacks in talks with the European stocks are meanwhile at record highs, up 11 per cent since April 2. They fell 14 per cent in three trading sessions after that announcement but have since rallied 24 per cent.."If Liberation Day was the earthquake, the tariff letters will be the aftershocks. They won't quite have the same impact on markets even if they are higher than the earlier 10 per cent," said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.."This financial system is so inundated with liquidity that it is hard to cash up or delever at the risk of lagging the markets, with April serving as a painful reminder for many who derisked and were then forced to chase the relentless recovery in the subsequent weeks.".Taxes and the have also been distracted by weeks of wrangling in Congress over Trump's massive tax and spending package, which he signed into law on markets have celebrated the passage of the bill, which makes Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent, while bond investors are wary the measures could add more than $3 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion SP 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed at record highs on Friday, notching a third week of gains. Europe's STOXX 600 benchmark is up 9 per cent in three the risks of tariff-related inflation have weighed on US Treasuries and the dollar, and jostled expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Rate futures show traders no longer expect a Fed rate cut this month and are pricing in a total of just two quarter-point reductions by dollar has suffered a knock to its haven reputation from the dithering on tariffs. The dollar index, which reflects the US currency's performance against a basket of six others, has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining some 11 per cent. It has fallen by 6.6 per cent since April 2 alone.."The markets are discounting a return to tariff levels of 35 per cent, 40 per cent or higher, and anticipating an across-the-board level of 10 per cent or so,' said John Pantekidis, chief investment officer at TwinFocus in is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for US stocks this year, but the one variable he is watching closely is interest rate now he expects to see interest rates dip in the second half, 'but if the bond market worries about the impact of the bill and rates go up, that's a different scenario.'
Time of India
19-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India to focus on robust pacts with developed nations: Piyush Goyal
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel New Delhi: India 's focus is on entering into robust trade agreements with the developed world, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday."Our focus is on entering into robust trade agreements with the developed world," Goyal said at an event in has announced its free trade agreement (FTA) with the UK and concluded deals with Australia, the UAE and European Free Trade Association. It is also in talks with the US and European Union."There was a time 15 years ago when we were more focused on doing trade agreements with countries who were really our competitors. Why do an ASEAN agreement... which was done 15 years ago before we came into government... it really is silly because I am opening up my market to my competitors, many of whom have now become the B team of China. So, effectively and indirectly, I have opened up my market for goods that find their way from China into India," Goyal ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA), which came into effect in 2010, is currently under review. India has been demanding a review of the pact to eliminate barriers and its or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and this government is focusing on having robust agreements, as it did with Australia and is now set to negotiate with New Zealand in another three-four months, Goyal said."What we did with the UAE and are now close to closing second in the Gulf... and possibly start with other countries of the Gulf region. The rich countries... countries against whom we do not compete but complement," he said. Trade negotiations are going on with Chile and Peru as well.
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US President Donald Trump open to extend July 8 trade talks deadline, US to send deal letters
ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT WASHINGTON: U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for completing trade talks with countries before higher U.S. tariffs take effect, but did not believe that would be told reporters before a performance at the Kennedy Center that trade negotiations were continuing with some 15 countries, including South Korea, Japan and the European Union."We're rocking in terms of deals," he said. "We're dealing with quite a few countries and they all want to make a deal with us." He said he did not believe a deadline extension would be "a necessity."Trump said the U.S. would send out letters in coming weeks specifying the terms of trade deals to dozens of other countries, which they could then embrace or reject."At a certain point, we're just going to send letters out ... saying, 'This is the deal. You can take it, or you can leave it,'" Trump said. "So at a certain point we'll do that. We're not quite ready."U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers earlier that the Trump administration could extend the July trade deal deadline - or "roll the date forward" for countries negotiating in good faith, in certain cases.A 90-day pause in Trump's broadest, "reciprocal" tariffs will end on July 8, with only one trade deal agreed with Britain and some 17 others at various stages of negotiation."It is highly likely that those countries - or trading blocs as is the case with the EU - who are negotiating in good faith, we will roll the date forward to continue the good-faith negotiations," Bessent told the House Ways and Means Committee. "If someone is not negotiating, then we will not."Bessent's remarks marked the first time a Trump administration official has indicated some flexibility around the expiration date for the reiterated the possibility of more negotiating time at a second hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday, saying it was "my belief that countries that are negotiating in good faith could be rolled forward."He said the European Union had previously been slower to come forward with robust proposals, but was now showing "better faith," without providing specifics. Trump echoed that more upbeat view on Wednesday, saying, "They do want to negotiate."A deal struck on Tuesday in London with China to de-escalate that bilateral trade war is proceeding on a separate track and timeline, with an August 10 deadline set last president has been the final decision-maker on his administration's tariff and trade policies, but Bessent's influence has increased in recent months and the Treasury chief has been viewed by many trading partners as a moderating announced the pause on April 9, a week after unveiling "Liberation Day" tariffs against nearly all U.S. trading partners that proved to be so unexpectedly large and sweeping that it sent global financial markets into near S&P 500 Index plunged more than 12% in four days for its heftiest run of losses since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Investors were so rattled they bailed out of safe-haven U.S. Treasury securities, sending bond yields rocketing higher. The dollar started their recovery on April 9 when Trump unexpectedly announced the pause. The recovery continued in early May when the Trump team agreed to dial back the triple-digit tariff rates it had imposed on goods from China. Those events have given rise to what some on Wall Street have parodied as the "TACO" trade - an acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out."The only time the market has reacted positively is when the administration is in retreat from key policy areas," Democratic Representative Don Beyer of Virginia told Bessent before pressing him on what to expect when the July deadline expires."As I have said repeatedly there are 18 important trading partners. We are working toward deals with those," Bessent said before going on to signal a willingness to offer extensions to those negotiating in good faith.
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Trump says willing to extend trade talks deadline, but says that won't be necessary
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel WASHINGTON: U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for completing trade talks with countries before higher U.S. tariffs take effect, but did not believe that would be told reporters before a performance at the Kennedy Center that trade negotiations were continuing with some 15 countries, including South Korea, Japan and the European Union."We're rocking in terms of deals," he said. "We're dealing with quite a few countries and they all want to make a deal with us." He said he did not believe a deadline extension would be "a necessity."Trump said the U.S. would send out letters in coming weeks specifying the terms of trade deals to dozens of other countries, which they could then embrace or reject."At a certain point, we're just going to send letters out ... saying, 'This is the deal. You can take it, or you can leave it,'" Trump said. "So at a certain point we'll do that. We're not quite ready."U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers earlier that the Trump administration could extend the July trade deal deadline - or "roll the date forward" for countries negotiating in good faith, in certain cases.A 90-day pause in Trump's broadest, "reciprocal" tariffs will end on July 8, with only one trade deal agreed with Britain and some 17 others at various stages of negotiation."It is highly likely that those countries - or trading blocs as is the case with the EU - who are negotiating in good faith, we will roll the date forward to continue the good-faith negotiations," Bessent told the House Ways and Means Committee. "If someone is not negotiating, then we will not."Bessent's remarks marked the first time a Trump administration official has indicated some flexibility around the expiration date for the reiterated the possibility of more negotiating time at a second hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday, saying it was "my belief that countries that are negotiating in good faith could be rolled forward."He said the European Union had previously been slower to come forward with robust proposals, but was now showing "better faith," without providing specifics. Trump echoed that more upbeat view on Wednesday, saying, "They do want to negotiate."A deal struck on Tuesday in London with China to de-escalate that bilateral trade war is proceeding on a separate track and timeline, with an August 10 deadline set last president has been the final decision-maker on his administration's tariff and trade policies, but Bessent's influence has increased in recent months and the Treasury chief has been viewed by many trading partners as a moderating announced the pause on April 9, a week after unveiling "Liberation Day" tariffs against nearly all U.S. trading partners that proved to be so unexpectedly large and sweeping that it sent global financial markets into near S&P 500 Index plunged more than 12% in four days for its heftiest run of losses since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Investors were so rattled they bailed out of safe-haven U.S. Treasury securities, sending bond yields rocketing higher. The dollar started their recovery on April 9 when Trump unexpectedly announced the pause. The recovery continued in early May when the Trump team agreed to dial back the triple-digit tariff rates it had imposed on goods from China. Those events have given rise to what some on Wall Street have parodied as the "TACO" trade - an acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out."The only time the market has reacted positively is when the administration is in retreat from key policy areas," Democratic Representative Don Beyer of Virginia told Bessent before pressing him on what to expect when the July deadline expires."As I have said repeatedly there are 18 important trading partners. We are working toward deals with those," Bessent said before going on to signal a willingness to offer extensions to those negotiating in good faith.
Yahoo
09-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Real Significance of Trump's Tariffs
President Donald Trump's announcement that he was imposing broad and hefty tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China provoked a predictably swift outcry. But there is one aspect of the move that has not received nearly enough attention. It's not really about trade. It's about power. Trump levied tariffs during his first term, but this time is different. That's because on Monday, Trump invoked a law — the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — that has never been used to impose tariffs before, let alone tariffs of this breadth and magnitude. (The Mexico and Canada tariffs were quickly put on hold before going into effect, though Trump could always resuscitate them, and he is apparently planning to open up another front in his trade wars by imposing similar tariffs on goods from the European Union. The China tariffs, meanwhile, are still on.) Scholars of trade law say the move will likely be challenged in court because it arguably exceeds the presidential authority established under the Constitution, though whether this Supreme Court would rule against Trump is far less certain. If he succeeds, Trump will end up fundamentally altering the balance of power between the three branches of the federal government — giving him and future presidents tremendous power to impact the global and domestic economies without any input from the elected representatives of Congress. And Republicans who go along with this gambit may regret it later on if and when a President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or a President Pete Buttigieg deploys these powers. When Trump imposed tariffs during his first term, he cited authority under other laws, like the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. At one point he threatened to invoke the IEEPA to impose tariffs on Mexican goods, but he never followed through, perhaps amid concern it would have been seen as legally dubious. That's because the IEEPA is typically used to impose sanctions — not tariffs — on other countries. But Trump's decision to use the IEEPA this time, when he's aggressively flexing his executive authority, may be no accident: Unlike other trade laws, the IEEPA has the fewest procedural requirements and safeguards. It gives the president the power to regulate or prohibit a broad swath of economic activity in order 'to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat' that is based largely outside the United States and concerns 'the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.' In the executive orders that announced the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, Trump invoked the opioid crisis, as well as illegal immigration from Canada and Mexico. By contrast, when Trump imposed tariffs during his last term, including on certain products from China, the statutes he used required his administration to first conduct investigations through either the International Trade Commission, the Department of Commerce or the U.S. Trade Representative. Those processes can take months and require specific determinations under each statute — for instance, that the imports at issue are the substantial cause of serious injury to a domestic industry — and in some cases require the executive branch to consult with Congress. As the Congressional Research Service notes, 'The focus of these laws is not to provide additional sources of revenue, but rather to alter trading patterns and address specific trade practices.' No president has ever used the IEEPA to impose tariffs before. In fact, the IEEPA was passed as part of a broader effort by Congress in the 1970s to limit the president's ability to exercise emergency economic powers. The framework ultimately created, however, completely fails to rein in the president, according to Timothy Meyer, a law professor and expert on international trade law. And Trump is taking advantage of that failure by pushing beyond what the Constitution intended. 'This strikes me as unconstitutional,' Meyer told me. 'It's very difficult to see how the framers would've thought that it was constitutional for the president to simply have the power on the drop of a hat to impose an across-the-board 25 percent tariff on our major trading partners.' The Constitution gives Congress the authority to 'lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises.' Between Trump's tariffs and his unilateral effort to halt federal spending, he has now effectively claimed that he has both taxing and spending authority — a government all his own. Congress barely even needs to exist in this framework. Trump may run into hurdles in the courts. There are both statutory and constitutional limits, and in due course, we may see lawsuits that try to invalidate the China tariffs and effectively preempt Trump's ability to impose others. Those challenges would likely come from American businesses that have to pay the tariffs, and the most obvious forum would be the Court of International Trade, with any appeals going up to the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals and eventually the Supreme Court. What might that challenge look like? To the extent the president has any power in the area of taxes and tariffs, he gets it from statutes passed by Congress. Challengers could argue that the IEEPA, as a simple textual matter, does not give Trump the power to impose tariffs. The language of the statute is broad — the president can, for instance, prohibit 'transactions in foreign exchange' and 'the importing or exporting of currencies or securities' — but it does not explicitly give the president any authority to impose 'tariffs' or 'taxes.' Would that argument pass muster at today's Supreme Court? It's hard to know. There is enough vagueness in the statute that so-called conservative textualists — who typically refuse to consider congressional purpose or legislative history when interpreting statutes — could try to justify extending the authority given by Congress to tariffs and taxes as well, even though Congress could have written that language into the statute if it meant to. (If this makes textualism sound like an interpretive methodology that is ripe for abuse — that allows judges to make policy choices by selectively choosing how to read statutes under the guise of a neutral framework — then you have the right idea.) A considerably stronger argument against Trump's tariffs draws on the Supreme Court's so-called major questions doctrine. The Republican appointees on the court created this doctrine fairly recently, but it is now the law of the land. The doctrine requires more rigorous analysis and scrutiny of executive authority if the action passes some undefined threshold of 'economic and political significance.' In that case, the executive branch is allowed to act only if it's been given a clear directive from Congress. In 2023, the Republican appointees on the court relied on the major questions doctrine to throw out a large part of President Joe Biden's student loan forgiveness program — which, they said, lacked sufficiently clear statutory authorization from Congress to justify a major policy change with wide-ranging economic effects. Under the emergency economic powers law, there is no clear delegation of taxing or tariff authority to the president. There is also little question that the tariffs that Trump has imposed — and apparently intends to impose — could have extraordinary impacts on the domestic and global economies. Just this week, Trump's trade adviser Peter Navarro acknowledged as much in an interview with my POLITICO colleague Dasha Burns. 'If President Trump succeeds like he wants to succeed,' Navarro said, 'we are going to structurally shift the American economy from one overreliant on income taxes and the Internal Revenue Service, to one which is also reliant on tariff revenue and the External Revenue Service.' If, however, a conservative court wanted to rule in Trump's favor on the tariffs, it could draw inspiration from the Supreme Court's decision in 2018 upholding Trump's travel ban on certain majority-Muslim countries. In that case, the Republican appointees signed off on a broad assertion of presidential authority, essentially ignoring Trump's effort to target Muslims and deferring to him on the theory that a 'travel ban' implicated national security and foreign policy concerns that the president is better suited to address than legislators or the courts. The Supreme Court's major questions doctrine has developed since the decision on the travel ban and was used to thwart multiple Biden initiatives in the domestic context, including an eviction moratorium during the pandemic. Still, it's possible the court could decide not to apply the doctrine in the realm of foreign affairs. As a matter of principle, it would be hard to justify that deviation. 'It is really tough to see how some of the things that they have called major questions — the student loan issue, the eviction moratorium — are significant economic questions, but a 25 percent tax on two of our largest trading partners across the board is not, particularly when you're talking about a statute that says nothing about tariffs specifically,' Meyer observed. Any litigation in this area, however, could move slowly. We have become accustomed to seeing courts quickly impose injunctions to stop executive actions that may be unlawful, but the legal standard requires the challengers to demonstrate that they will suffer 'irreparable harm' in the absence of the injunction. Financial losses alone often do not qualify under that standard (on the theory that the plaintiffs can be made financially whole at the end of the case if they ultimately prevail in the ordinary course of litigation). Congress has options here, and it should explore them quickly. The IEEPA contains a statutory mechanism for Congress to override Trump's tariffs, but it would require it to pass a veto-proof majority joint resolution, which, given Trump's grip on Republicans in the House and Senate, is practically inconceivable. Democrats are in the minority, of course, but they have procedural levers of influence. Just this week, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said that he had put a blanket hold on State Department nominees in response to the administration's assault on USAID. Democrats could also refuse to help Republicans pass spending bills and force a government shutdown — which could draw the public's attention to this issue as well as the many other controversial actions that Trump has taken in his less than three weeks in office. On a longer horizon, Congress could pass a law that significantly constrains the president's authority under the IEEPA — for instance, by narrowing the circumstances in which the president can declare an 'emergency,' or, as with other trade statutes, by requiring the president to go through internal, agency-level fact-finding processes to study and justify any proposed actions under the statute before they take effect. One day, a Democrat will be back in the White House, and Republicans will be hungry for oversight when that happens. The other option is for Congress to do nothing. And if Trump were ultimately to prevail in the courts, he will have usurped extraordinary power from the legislative branch. It was no accident that the framers gave the power to tax and spend to Congress. These are incredibly complex issues that require difficult trade-offs and that have tremendous impacts on the American people. The framers got it right when they concluded that Congress — which is broadly and more directly responsive to the public than the president — should have this authority and that it should be up to it to decide whether and to what extent to delegate any of that power to the president. Trump's tariffs are yet another executive overreach among many in his opening weeks. Here, too, Congress ignores this at its own peril.
