logo
Investors head into Trump tariff deadline benumbed and blase

Investors head into Trump tariff deadline benumbed and blase

Deccan Herald19 hours ago
Singapore/New York: Global investors are heading into US President Donald Trump's Wednesday deadline for trade tariffs palpably unexcited and prepared for a range of benign scenarios that they believe are already priced in..Just days before the end of a 90-day pause he announced on his April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs, Trump said the first batch of letters outlining the tariff levels they would face on exports to the United States would be sent to 12 countries on Monday..Investors who have been tracking this date for months expect more details to emerge in the coming days and protracted uncertainty too, anticipating Trump will not be able to complete deals with all of America's trading partners in the coming week..Trump says tariff letters to 12 countries signed, going out Monday.And they are not overly concerned..'The market has gotten much more comfortable, more sanguine, when it comes to tariff news,' said Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset at Neuberger Berman in New York..'The markets think that there is enough 'squishiness' in the deadlines – absent any major surprise – to not be too unsettled by more tariff news and believe that the worst-case scenarios are off the table now.'.Both the tariff levels and effective dates have become moving targets. Trump said on Friday that tariffs ranging up to 70 per cent could go into effect on August 1, levels far higher than the 10 per cent-50 per cent range he announced in April..So far, the US administration has a limited deal with Britain and an in-principle agreement with Vietnam..Deals that had been anticipated with India and Japan have failed to materialize, and there have been setbacks in talks with the European Union..World stocks are meanwhile at record highs, up 11 per cent since April 2. They fell 14 per cent in three trading sessions after that announcement but have since rallied 24 per cent.."If Liberation Day was the earthquake, the tariff letters will be the aftershocks. They won't quite have the same impact on markets even if they are higher than the earlier 10 per cent," said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.."This financial system is so inundated with liquidity that it is hard to cash up or delever at the risk of lagging the markets, with April serving as a painful reminder for many who derisked and were then forced to chase the relentless recovery in the subsequent weeks.".Taxes and the Fed.Investors have also been distracted by weeks of wrangling in Congress over Trump's massive tax and spending package, which he signed into law on Friday..Stock markets have celebrated the passage of the bill, which makes Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent, while bond investors are wary the measures could add more than $3 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt..The SP 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed at record highs on Friday, notching a third week of gains. Europe's STOXX 600 benchmark is up 9 per cent in three months..But the risks of tariff-related inflation have weighed on US Treasuries and the dollar, and jostled expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Rate futures show traders no longer expect a Fed rate cut this month and are pricing in a total of just two quarter-point reductions by year-end..The dollar has suffered a knock to its haven reputation from the dithering on tariffs. The dollar index, which reflects the US currency's performance against a basket of six others, has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining some 11 per cent. It has fallen by 6.6 per cent since April 2 alone.."The markets are discounting a return to tariff levels of 35 per cent, 40 per cent or higher, and anticipating an across-the-board level of 10 per cent or so,' said John Pantekidis, chief investment officer at TwinFocus in Boston..Pantekidis is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for US stocks this year, but the one variable he is watching closely is interest rate levels..For now he expects to see interest rates dip in the second half, 'but if the bond market worries about the impact of the bill and rates go up, that's a different scenario.'
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Rupee slips on Trump's additional 10% Brics tariff; opens lower at 85.57/$
Rupee slips on Trump's additional 10% Brics tariff; opens lower at 85.57/$

Business Standard

time24 minutes ago

  • Business Standard

Rupee slips on Trump's additional 10% Brics tariff; opens lower at 85.57/$

The Indian Rupee fell on Monday as US President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 10 per cent on countries aligning with Brics policies. The domestic currency opened 18 paise lower at 85.57 against the dollar on Monday, according to Bloomberg. All Asian currencies traded in the red with Thai Baht leading the fall, as caution loomed over the US reciprocal tariff deadline. The currency has appreciated 0.17 per cent so far this month, after having fallen 0.18 per cent in the first six months of the calendar year. President Trump, on Monday, threatened to levy an additional 10 per cent tariff on any country aligning itself with 'the Anti-American policies of BRICS,' fueling more uncertainty in the markets. 'Any country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10 per cent Tariff,' Trump said in a Truth Social post. 'There will be no exceptions to this policy.' The group's leaders, over the weekend, agreed to continue talks on a cross-border payment system for trade and investments, according to a Bloomberg report. Trump had previously threatened to slap 100 per cent levies on Brics in case they drop the dollar in bilateral trade. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN that several major agreements are nearing completion, according to reports. As others remain out of reach, he added that some deals may include a three-week extension option. However, India and the US are likely to take a final decision on the 'mini trade deal' in the next 24-48 hours, as per media reports. The Indian Rupee has remained range-bound over the past few days, trading between 85.30 and 85.60, analysts said. Nationalised banks have been buying dollars on dips, while exporters and other inflows have been selling on upticks, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. Exporters are awaiting a move towards 86 to hedge, while importers are eyeing 85, he said. "In the meantime, market participants can cover their daily and weekly requirements. Today's opening is around 85.50, with an expected range of 85.30–85.80."

Asia stocks fall on US tariff uncertainty, oil slips on Opec+ move
Asia stocks fall on US tariff uncertainty, oil slips on Opec+ move

Business Standard

time24 minutes ago

  • Business Standard

Asia stocks fall on US tariff uncertainty, oil slips on Opec+ move

Stock markets slipped in Asia amid much confusion as US officials flagged a delay on tariffs but failed to provide any detail or paperwork on the change, while oil prices slid as Opec+ opened the supply spigots more than expected. The United States is close to finalising several trade agreements in the coming days and will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by July 9, President Donald Trump said on Sunday, with the higher rates to take effect on August 1. "President Trump's going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don't move things along, then on August 1 you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN. Trump in April announced a 10 per cent base tariff rate on most countries and higher "reciprocal" rates ranging up to 50 per cent, with an original deadline of this Wednesday. However, Trump also said levies could range in value from "maybe 60 per cent or 70 per cent tariffs to 10 per cent and 20 per cent", further clouding the picture. With very few actual trade deals done, analysts had suspected the date would be pushed out, though it was still not clear if the new deadline applied to all trading partners or just some. "This renewed escalation in trade tensions comes at a time when major trade partners, including the EU, India and Japan, are believed to be at crucial stages of bilateral negotiations," analysts at ANZ said in a note. "If reciprocal tariffs are implemented in their original form or even expanded, we believe it will intensify downside risks to US growth and increase upside risks to inflation." Investors have grown somewhat used to the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and the initial market reaction was cautious. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.3 per cent. Japan's Nikkei lost 0.3 per cent, while South Korean stocks fell 0.7 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1 per cent. Dollar doldrums Safe-haven bonds were better bid, with 10-year Treasury yields down almost 2 basis points at 4.326 per cent. Major currencies were little changed as the dollar index continued to languish near four-year lows at 96.913. The euro held at $1.1787, just off last week's top of $1.1830, while the dollar dipped to 144.38 yen. The dollar has been undermined by investor concerns about Trump's often chaotic tariff policy and what that might do to economic growth and inflation. The same worries have kept the Federal Reserve from cutting rates and minutes of its last meeting should offer more colour on when the majority of members might resume easing. It is a relatively quiet week for Fed speakers with only two district presidents on the docket, while economic data is also sparse. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut its rates by a quarter point to 3.60 per cent at a meeting on Tuesday, the third easing this cycle, and markets imply an eventual destination for rates of 2.85 per cent or 3.10 per cent. New Zealand's central bank meets on Wednesday and is likely to hold rates at 3.25 per cent, having already slashed by 225 basis points over the past year. In commodity markets, gold slipped 0.3 per cent to $3,324 an ounce, though it did gain almost 2 per cent last week as the dollar fell. [GOL/] Oil prices slid anew after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Saturday to raise production by a larger-than-expected 548,000 barrels per day in August. [O/R] The group also warned that it could hike by a similar amount in September, leaving analysts with the impression it was trying to squeeze lower margin producers and particularly those pulling oil from US shale. Brent dropped 52 cents to $67.78 a barrel, while US crude fell $1.01 to $65.99 per barrel. [O/R] text_section_type="notes">To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on:

Stock Market Updates: GIFT Nifty Hints Muted Start; Trump Shifts Tariff Deadline To Aug 1
Stock Market Updates: GIFT Nifty Hints Muted Start; Trump Shifts Tariff Deadline To Aug 1

News18

time30 minutes ago

  • News18

Stock Market Updates: GIFT Nifty Hints Muted Start; Trump Shifts Tariff Deadline To Aug 1

Last Updated: Indian stock markets are likely to open on a cautious note, with a flat-to-negative bias on Monday, July 7 Sensex Today: Indian stock markets are likely to open on a cautious note, with a flat-to-negative bias on Monday, July 7, as investors react to the latest updates on US tariff measures under President Donald Trump's administration. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Sunday that the new tariffs will be enforced starting August 1 for countries that fail to finalise trade agreements with the US — a list that currently includes India. Bessent stated that the extended timeline is meant to give US trading partners additional time to renegotiate tariff terms. The uncertainty around India's pending trade agreement with the US could weigh on investor sentiment. As of 6:40 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were trading 13 points lower at the 25,528 level, indicating a muted start for domestic indices. Apart from global cues, market focus will gradually shift toward the first quarter earnings season for FY26. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will kick off the results season with its Q1 numbers scheduled for July 10. Other key earnings include DMart on July 11, HCL Technologies on July 14, and Tech Mahindra on July 16. With no major domestic triggers expected today, the market is likely to remain stock-specific. Trends in foreign institutional investor (FII) flows and cues from global markets will play a critical role in driving sentiment through the session. Global Markets Update: Asian markets were mostly in the red on Monday, dragged lower by uncertainty over the shifting US tariff deadline. Japan's Nikkei 225 dipped 0.26%, while South Korea's Kospi shed 0.48%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 hovered near the flat line in early trade. In the US, stock futures indicated a weak start for Wall Street. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 146 points, or 0.32%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.42%, reflecting cautious sentiment amid global trade concerns. About the Author Aparna Deb Stay updated with all the latest news on the Stock Market, including market trends, Sensex and Nifty updates, top gainers and losers, and expert analysis. Get real-time insights, financial reports, and investment strategies—only on News18. Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: News business » markets Stock Market Updates: GIFT Nifty Hints Muted Start; Trump Shifts Tariff Deadline To Aug 1

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store