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Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Shell denies it is in takeover talks with BP after WSJ report
Shell denied that it was in talks to buy BP after the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the oil major was in early discussions over a takeover of its British rival. "No talks are taking place. As we have said many times before, we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification," a Shell spokesperson said. A BP spokesperson declined to comment on the WSJ report. The latest in a series of rebuttals by Shell follows recent repeated assertions by CEO Wael Sawan that Shell had a very high bar for big acquisitions and buying back shares was a better allocation of money than the possibility of buying BP. BP has been the subject of takeover talks for several years because of its stock's relative underperformance, but analysis of its disclosures shows that the British energy group may not be as cheap as its market valuation would suggest. The company was valued at nearly $80 billion on Wednesday with net debt of $27 billion while Shell's market capitalisation stood at more than $208 billion. BP's American depository shares were up 1.5 per cent at $30.40 by 1725 GMT and Shell was down 0.7 per cent at $69.70. If Shell were to submit a bid, it would be a rare attempt by an oil major to acquire such a large rival in the face of heightened regulatory scrutiny of such deals. A deal of this magnitude has not been attempted in the energy industry since Exxon and Chevron held preliminary talks during the COVID-19 pandemic to discuss a combination that would have been the biggest merger of all time. Potential terms of any deal could not be learned and a tie-up is far from certain, WSJ reported. CNBC cited unidentified sources saying that BP could be broken up if a deal materialises. BP's shares have fallen by 23 per cent over the past year, underperforming the blue-chip FTSE 100 Index, which gained 5.3 per cent during the same period. Shell's shares have risen more than 8 per cent while Exxon has lost 4 per cent with Chevron down about 10 per cent.
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Shell denies it is in takeover talks with BP after WSJ report
(Reuters) -Shell denied that it was in talks to buy BP after the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the oil major was in early discussions over a takeover of its British rival. "No talks are taking place. As we have said many times before, we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification," a Shell spokesperson said. A BP spokesperson declined to comment on the WSJ report. The latest in a series of rebuttals by Shell follows recent repeated assertions by CEO Wael Sawan that Shell had a very high bar for big acquisitions and buying back shares was a better allocation of money than the possibility of buying BP. BP has been the subject of takeover talks for several years because of its stock's relative underperformance, but analysis of its disclosures shows that the British energy group may not be as cheap as its market valuation would suggest. The company was valued at nearly $80 billion on Wednesday with net debt of $27 billion while Shell's market capitalisation stood at more than $208 billion. BP's American depository shares were up 1.5% at $30.40 by 1725 GMT and Shell was down 0.7% at $69.70. If Shell were to submit a bid, it would be a rare attempt by an oil major to acquire such a large rival in the face of heightened regulatory scrutiny of such deals. A deal of this magnitude has not been attempted in the energy industry since Exxon and Chevron held preliminary talks during the COVID-19 pandemic to discuss a combination that would have been the biggest merger of all time. Potential terms of any deal could not be learned and a tie-up is far from certain, WSJ reported. CNBC cited unidentified sources saying that BP could be broken up if a deal materialises. BP's shares have fallen by 23% over the past year, underperforming the blue-chip FTSE 100 Index, which gained 5.3% during the same period. Shell's shares have risen more than 8% while Exxon has lost 4% with Chevron down about 10%.
Business Insider
25-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
XOM vs. CVX vs. COP: Which Oil Stock Is Wall Street's Best Pick in this Volatile Market?
Oil prices fell for the second straight day on Tuesday as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased supply concerns and reversed the rally in oil stocks that was triggered when the conflict between the two countries began earlier this month. Oil prices might continue to be volatile, given geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties. Bearing this backdrop in mind, we used TipRanks' Stock Comparison Tool to place Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) against each other to find the best oil stock despite the ongoing volatility, according to Wall Street analysts. Confident Investing Starts Here: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Stock Energy giant Exxon Mobil's first-quarter earnings surpassed analysts' expectations but declined compared to the prior-year quarter due to lower oil prices amid fears that macro uncertainty and tariffs under the Trump administration would hit global demand. Nonetheless, higher volumes in the Permian Basin and Guyana and Exxon's cost reduction measures helped mitigate the impact of weak prices on earnings. Notably, Exxon Mobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural has bolstered its position in the Permian Basin. Meanwhile, the company continues to reward shareholders with attractive returns. In Q1 2025, Exxon returned $9.1 billion to shareholders through $4.3 billion in dividends and $4.8 billion in share repurchases. XOM stock offers a dividend yield of 3.5%. Is Exxon Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold? Recently, TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman reiterated a Buy rating on Exxon Mobil stock and increased the price target to $128 from $120, citing higher near-term earnings. Following investor meetings with management, the analyst stated that the company reiterated its potential to achieve a 10% annual earnings growth from 2024 to 2030 from de-risked projects. Gabelman noted that Exxon is satisfied with its current portfolio after executing $24 billion divestments since 2019. Gabelman said that XOM stock remains a top pick, given its clear earnings growth from differentiated projects that support stable and growing cash returns in a variety of price backdrops. He highlighted that Exxon continues to differentiate itself from peers by pursuing projects where it is the operator, in contrast to the past, when it would partner with other international oil companies to derisk its portfolio. Overall, Wall Street has assigned Exxon Mobil stock a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on eight Buys and six Holds. The average XOM stock price target of $123.14 indicates 13.7% upside potential. XOM stock is almost flat year-to-date. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) Stock Oil and gas giant Chevron slightly exceeded the Street's earnings expectations in Q1 2025, though EPS declined year-over-year as the company's upstream business was hit by lower oil prices. The bottom line was also impacted by a decline in refining margins on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, Chevron said that it plans to make repurchases in the range of $2.5 billion to $3 billion in Q2 2025, marking a slowdown from the $3.9 billion worth of stock bought back in the first quarter. That said, the company reaffirmed its full-year buybacks target of $10 billion to $20 billion. Coming to dividends, with a quarterly dividend of $1.71, CVX stock offers a dividend yield of 4.6%. All eyes are now on the final decision on the arbitration case with Exxon Mobil regarding Chevron's proposed acquisition of Hess Corporation. The case is focused on the applicability of Exxon Mobil's right of first refusal (ROFR) on Hess's 30% stake in the lucrative Stabroek block, which is part of Chevron's $53 billion acquisition of Hess. Is CVX a Buy, Hold, or Sell? Recently, Barclays analyst Betty Jiang reiterated a Hold rating on Chevron stock with a price target of $152. Considering Chevron's organic growth since 2023, Jiang believes that the Hess Corporation is now modestly accretive to the energy giant's cash flow multiples and leverage, but still dilutive on free cash flow yield. Jiang sees balanced risk/reward around the arbitration outcome related to the Hess acquisition. Overall, Chevron stock earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 10 Buys, six Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average CVX stock price target of $159.50 indicates 11.1% upside potential. CVX stock is flat on a year-to-date basis. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Stock COP stock has declined about 10% so far this year due to market challenges and concerns about the impact on demand due to a potential slowdown. ConocoPhillips delivered market-beating first-quarter results, as the impact of lower oil prices was offset by higher production, supported by the Marathon Oil acquisition. ConocoPhillips distributed $2.5 billion to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $1.5 billion via share repurchases and $1.0 billion through dividends. COP stock offers a dividend yield of 3.3%. Given a volatile macro backdrop, ConocoPhillips reduced its full-year capital expenditure and operating cost guidance. Is COP a Good Stock to Buy Now? Earlier this month, Citi analyst Alastair Syme lowered the price target for ConocoPhillips stock to $115 from $140 but reiterated a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst highlighted two reasons for COP stock's underperformance: investor skepticism toward the Marathon Oil acquisition and the decision to increase unit capital intensity by 25% to fund growth. However, Syme views the Marathon deal as a strategic move that will extend the life and improve the efficiency of existing assets. He expects the consolidation in the maturing shale plays to reduce costs and optimize capital allocation and bolster COP's position in key basins. Syme also noted COP's portfolio strength, a disciplined capital strategy, and strong balance sheet, which support resilience in a lower-price backdrop. Syme sees the pullback in the stock as a value opportunity due to ConocoPhillips' resilience, solid fundamentals, and long-term growth prospects. While the analyst slashed COP stock's price target to reflect a reduced terminal growth rate and higher cost of equity, he sees 'substantial upside' ahead. Syme finds COP stock's valuation compelling, noting that it trades at a 15% to 25% compared to the large-cap U.S. integrated oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, while offering similar growth and defensiveness like the integrated energy majors. On TipRanks, ConocoPhillips stock scores a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 16 Buys and two Hold recommendations. The average COP stock price target of $113.50 indicates about 27% upside potential. Conclusion Wall Street is highly bullish on ConocoPhillips stock and cautiously optimistic on Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Analysts see higher upside potential in COP stock compared to the other two oil stocks. Their bullish stance is backed by ConocoPhillips' solid balance sheet, diversified business model, and the ability to navigate a challenging environment.
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Lula's Brazil Doubles Down on Oil and Cash
A new offshore oil auction in the Amazon, a major investment in refinery expansion, and an attempt to extract $6.2 billion from the energy industry—this may not sound very appropriate for a government that has made some big net-zero promises. Yet it is exactly what the Lula da Silva government in Brazil is doing. South America's biggest country produces around 3.5 million barrels of crude daily. It also recently auctioned 19 blocks in the Foz do Amazonas basin, part of the Equatorial Basin and a highly sensitive ecosystem, according to environmentalists. Their opposition, however, did not stop the auction, which featured successful bidders such as Exxon, Chevron, and China's CNPC, in addition to Brazil's own state energy major, Petrobras. The Equatorial Basin includes three basins: Foz do Amazonas, Pará-Maranhão, and Barreirinhas. The area is estimated to hold large oil and gas reserves and is expected to share geology with that of Guyana's offshore, where Exxon is finding billions of barrels of oil and is developing half a dozen projects. Some in Brazil believe it could be the next presalt zone in terms of production. Meanwhile, Brazil last year updated its reserve estimates, now seeing its proven oil wealth at some 16.8 billion barrels as of 2024, which was up 5.92% on the previous year. The reserve replacement rate in the biggest South American oil producer was also exemplary, at over 176%. And yet, Brazil wants to be a net-zero country by 2050 and reduce its emissions by between 59% and 67% by 2030. In the meantime, it's expanding a all about energy supply security. The Abreau e Lima refinery is getting $900 million to boost its capacity to 260,000 barrels of crude daily. This will increase local diesel fuel production, reducing dependency on imports. So will new oil exploration in the Fox do Amazonas: Brazil may produce around 3.5 million bpd and consume 2.57 million bpd but it does not have the refineries equipped to process all the crude it produces locally. So it has to import some crude in what looks like a bit of a paradoxical situation. Yet it is also about money. The oil industry in Brazil makes a lot of money—when the market is good—and the net-zero enthusiastic government wants a bigger portion of that. Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that the government was looking to boost its income from the energy industry by a substantial $6.2 billion, either by 'reviewing' the reference oil prices used to set taxes or by selling even more exploration licenses. Issuing more exploration licenses would be a safer option, but it wouldn't guarantee more income, based on some underwhelming exploration results in the presalt zone, which is currently the most prolific producing region in Brazil. Yet changing the reference price for oil tax calculation could be trickier, leading to lower income for oil producers and consequently dampening the appetite for expansion in the country's oil sector. We are seeing this happen in real time in the UK. Yet there's also another source of oil money in Brazil, and President Lula da Silva is eyeing it to prop up his popularity. In the middle of February, a poll showed that approval of Lula's government dropped to 24% from 35% in December—a record low during any of Lula's three terms in office as president of Brazil. To fix this, the government is planning to spend some of the $3.5 billion accumulated in an oil royalty fund that was set up back in 2010. So, Brazil wants to become greener, but it also wants to become more self-sufficient in energy, and for that, it needs more oil. At least it has acknowledged this need, unlike places like the UK, which are trying to juggle the mutually exclusive goals of killing their own energy industry while boosting energy security. By Irina Slav for More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Among 500 Stocks Generating Unusual Options Activity, The YouTube of China Deserves Close Attention
While the options market carries a reputation for unique complexities, it can also be a powerful tool for speculation. Thanks to their leverage, traders can utilize debit spreads to bet on relatively small movements in the open market. These valuation swings, however, can translate to massive payouts in the derivatives arena, thus attracting an increasing number of retail participants. Still, even if an investor had absolutely no desire to trade options, it's always worthwhile to consider Barchart's screener for unusual stock options volume. First, unlike many other financial publications, Barchart provides a comprehensive list of securities attracting attention from the big dogs. Second, on a more fundamental note, aberrant transactions can tip retail investors off to potential moves that could occur in the future. Palantir, Nuclear Stocks, and the Put/Call Ratio: Key Stocks, Sectors, and Indicators on Watch After U.S. Strikes on Iran Exxon Stock is Still Cheap Here - Shorting OTM Puts Sets a Lower Buy-In Triple Your Kimberly-Clark Dividend with this Options Strategy Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! To be clear, it's not a foolproof mechanism. However, some reasonable inferences can be made. For instance, if traders buy large volumes of out-of-money call options, one can assume that these market participants are bullish. After all, for a debit-based transaction to be profitable, the underlying event that is being speculated on must materialize; otherwise, the trade falls apart. On Friday, one of the top highlights in Barchart's unusual options screener was video-sharing and live-streaming platform Bilibili (BILI). Commonly known as the YouTube of China, Bilibili has enjoyed double-digit growth in the first quarter of this year. Further, its advertising revenue is up 20% on a year-over-year basis, reflecting the platform's accelerating popularity. Heading into the weekend, BILI stock represented one of the highlights in terms of unusual derivatives activity. Total volume reached 53,310 contracts, representing a 202.57% lift over the trailing one-month average. But at first glance, circumstances didn't appear encouraging, with call volume only landing at 16,043 contracts, while put volume jumped to 37,267. Fortunately, options flow — which exclusively filters for big block transactions likely placed by institutional investors — clarified the context. On the final business day of last week, net trade sentiment slipped to $662,100 above parity, thus favoring the bulls. As it turned out, the large number of puts represented sold or credit-based contracts. Basically, these traders are underwriting the risk that BILI stock will not fall below certain profitability thresholds (of put buyers) by expiration. While it's not the most directly bullish take on BILI, there's an underlying assumption of optimism. While the fundamental and technical backdrop (via options activity interpretations) appears positive for BILI stock, the challenge is that, for traders, the information lacks specificity. Especially for those interested in trading options, market participants must consider the fact that derivatives expire. Therefore, a proposed thesis must be right in magnitude (y-axis) and in time (x-axis) to be profitable. Stated differently, traders live in the world of probabilities. They're not so much obsessed about the 'why' of an investment but rather the 'how' — how much, how fast, how likely. To answer this inquiry requires statistical analysis. However, merely running probability matrices on financial data is incredibly challenging due to the non-stationarity problem. Essentially, the measurement metric in finance — whether that be the share price or any number of valuation ratios — fluctuate temporally and contextually. For example, it wouldn't make much sense to compare a high-flying tech company's current valuation to what it was valued at several years ago. Much time has passed and along with it, the context of the business and the underlying industry. To extract usable probabilities — the conditional variety as opposed to the derivative — one must impose stationarity on the target dataset. That's the number one reason why I've been harping on market breadth or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. Market breadth is a representation of demand and demand is a binary construct: it's either happening or it's not. Plus, demand is a first-order principle: it cannot be mathematically reduced. Therefore, not only does this metric carry inherent meaning, demand profiles are categorizable and quantifiable, which facilitates probabilistic analysis. Quantitatively, BILI stock in the past two months printed a 6-4-U sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Notably, in 62.3% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 4.71%. Last week, BILI stock closed the books at $19.74. If the implications of the 6-4-U sequence pan out as projected, the security could hit $20.67 quickly, perhaps in a week or two. Should the bulls maintain control of the market, past analogs imply that they could push BILI toward the $21 level. With the market intelligence above, those who want to speculate on Bilibili may consider the 20/21 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $20 call and simultaneously selling the $21 call, for a net debit paid of $45 (the most that can be lost in the trade). Should BILI stock rise through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward is $55, a payout of over 122%. Primarily, what makes this trade so attractive is the implied shift in sentiment regime. As a baseline, the chance that a long position will be profitable in BILI stock on any given week is only 50%, a coin toss. However, the statistical response to the 6-4-U sequence pushes the odds in favor of the bullish trader. Finally, the above call spread features about four weeks for the optimistic thesis to work its magic. Even with using past analogs, forecasting for both time and magnitude is an extremely difficult business. Thus, the extra theta gives debit spread buyers a potentially confidence-inspiring cushion. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
