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Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Florida hurricane forecast: How tropical turbulence will impact your Fourth of July
A disorganized tropical disturbance means Florida and the coastal Southeastern U.S. are in for a rainy wind-up to the Independence Day weekend, and unfortunately, with Florida's tough new anti-weather modification laws now in effect, there's nothing we can do about it. Kidding aside, the good news is that eventual tropical development of this feature, if any, should be limited, and is no cause for alarm. Here's a quick review of tropical goings-on to free up your mental capacity to steal the Articles of Confederation to recover Benny Frank's Masonic popcorn shrimp recipe on the back of it, repel alien invasions, ride the highway to the danger zone, and generally celebrate your country by blowing up a small piece of it this holiday weekend. Florida tropical threat synopsis: Disorganized convection in the eastern Gulf has a modest chance of organizing into a tropical system over the long weekend, either in the northeastern Gulf or more probably east of Florida. Elevated rain coverage will continue over Florida for another 2-4 days before likely diminishing from north to south over the long weekend. Almanac: It's Tuesday, July 1st… day 32 of the 2025 hurricane season, 151 days to go. By total storm energy, the season is 2.6%, 7.9%, and 6.9% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively. July is the second-quietest month of hurricane season from a U.S. landfall perspective, historically trailed only by November, with a pronounced historical lull in storm impacts mid-month. The most common location for tropical activity to develop in the first half of July is east of Florida and the Carolinas, with a smattering elsewhere across the Gulf, Caribbean, and western tropical Atlantic. A storm develops in the first two weeks of July every three years or so. Active storms: None. Disturbances in NHC tropical weather outlook: A broad disorganized area of convection extends from the eastern Gulf south of the Panhandle to east of the Bahamas, where an upper-level low is enhancing storms along an old, stalled-out frontal boundary. As of early Tuesday afternoon, the NHC is giving this mess a 30% chance of tropical development over the next seven days, as a more organized low could form somewhere along that trough, most likely between July 4 and July 6. Right now, what weak spin there is in the lower atmosphere is centered near the northeastern Gulf and will keep North Florida soggy through at least Thursday, July 3. However, drier air pushing into the Central Gulf mid-week should start to diminish rain chances in the Panhandle by the 4th, and will make the area near or east of Florida the more likely focus of any potential tropical development. The minority of computer model ensembles showing a weak storm forming have been steadily shifting their development clusters east in the last couple of days, so I think an organized low forming in the Gulf is pretty unlikely. If tropical system does eventually develop east of Florida or south of the Carolinas, steering currents are light, so it could well linger near the Gulf Stream into next week. Dry air and some northerly wind shear would most likely keep anything that develops weak. That means that whether or not a tropical depression or tropical storm develops, the primary impact on Florida and the southeast coast for the upcoming week is rainfall. Expected rainfall totals over the five days across most of Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast are in the 2-4' range, with locally higher accumulations and slight chances of localized flash flooding. North Florida rain chances will decline in a few days, but the Florida peninsula will see elevated rain coverage through the weekend. That's good for the drought, though not good for enjoying all-American novelties. Bottom line, expect thunderstorms across Florida to be enhanced by this tropical disturbance for another three to six days, but little chance of weather much different from a higher-than-normal dose of typical daily storms. Elsewhere: No need for cloud seeding, conventional weapons, nuclear weapons, HAARP, or MOABs: there's nothing else going on in the Tropical Atlantic Basin over the upcoming week. Wind shear remains high and dust remains extensive across the Caribbean and eastern Atlantic, and no tropical development is expected elsewhere through the first 10 days of the month. July weather tends to tell us a lot about the peak months of hurricane season, so I'll be carefully monitoring trends and have a full refresh of WeatherTiger's seasonal landfall risk outlook at the end of the month. Finally, I've gotten a lot of questions about the possible loss of microwave satellite data and how it would affect hurricane forecasts. This data has been routinely provided by military satellites for decades, and allows forecasters to see through clouds and get an accurate snapshot of key storm structures, day or night. Last week, it was unceremoniously announced this data stream was shuttering, with even the NHC slated to lose access. Unfortunately, if that happens, it will be quite impactful for all forecasters, harming our ability to detect and forecast rapid intensification, among much else. Yesterday, the data cutoff was delayed a month to July 31, but that scarcely helps as 80% of major hurricanes happen between mid-August and mid-October, so let's hope for another reprieve. I'll have a more in-depth look this and other missing forecast tools down the road, as well. Next report: Hopefully no need for additional forecasts over the weekend. In the meantime, keep watching the skies for both plastic bags drifting through the wind and fireworks. Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Email Ryan Truchelut at ryan@ This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida tropical storm forecast: July Fourth may see rain, fireworks
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Could a tropical storm impact your Florida Fourth of July plans? Forecast, possible scenarios
Will Florida celebrate the Fourth of July holiday weekend with a tropical depression or tropical storm stalled over the state? Maybe, but even if nothing develops — and there's only a low chance as of Monday, June 30 — you better have some inside backup activities planned, minus the fireworks, since it looks as if it'll be a wet weekend for the Sunshine State. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location A front is expected to move south and stall somewhere between the eastern Gulf and Atlantic waters off the southeastern U.S. Smack dab between those two points is Florida. If the right conditions are there, they could "potentially ignite tropical development," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert in an email Monday, June 30. "This is fairly common this time of the year, June and July, that you get old frontal boundaries kind of coming off the southeast coast and into the Gulf and stalling. And then you get a little area of spin to develop along that decaying cold front, and then that's how you get these usually fairly short-lived tropical systems early in the season. "They tend to be a little on the weaker side, but they can bring a lot of rain, especially if they do develop. I think that's what we might end up seeing here." The National Hurricane Center said on June 30 a frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. ➤ National Hurricane Center tracking system that could stall over Florida An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent. "A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," DaSilva said. "The Fourth of July looks pretty wet overall for the state of Florida, especially the peninsula," DaSilva said. "This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next five to seven days," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "However, this system could bring increase shower and thunderstorm activity and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely. "Models disagree on this exact point about where tropical development could occur," according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network. "The American model depicts a very broad, yet undefined, center of circulation. This wide area of low pressure would form west of Florida over the eastern Gulf. "The European model shows a low-pressure system remaining east of Florida, approximately 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral. "These two models represent two very different scenarios; they could produce opposite results regarding the weather for the holiday weekend in Florida," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. "If the American model verifies and a storm develops over the Gulf, there could be increased rainfall activity for the Florida peninsula during the holiday weekend. If the European model is confirmed, conditions are likely to remain drier than normal for the July 4th weekend." "It's kind of equal chances right now on which side of Florida it happens on," DaSilva said. "For Florida's sake, it would be better for it to happen east of Florida because then it would likely just get pushed out to sea. "If it happens in the Gulf, it's likely to be pushed eastward into Florida, although there are some indications that, depending on the strength of the Bermuda High, it could actually push the storm a little farther west, maybe towards Louisiana. I think that's a fairly low chance right now," DaSilva said. "I think the most likely would it be just pushed east into Florida. But that's something that we would have to watch for as well." The system moving east over the U.S. could "ignite" a tropical system, the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. Even if there is no tropical development, expect plenty of rain this week and into the holiday weekend across Florida, DaSilva said. "We must continue to monitor the progress of the frontal system, which will inject and deliver sufficient energy near Florida. At this point, it is impossible to know precisely where, and if, a storm could form," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. Here's the forecast around Florida for the holiday weekend: Pensacola, western Panhandle: July 4th: High 94; rain chances 20% Saturday: High 93; rain chances 40% Sunday: High 91; rain chances 60% Tallahassee, central Panhandle: July 4th: High 93; rain chances 60% Saturday: High 91; rain chances 60% Sunday: High 90; rain chances 60% Jacksonville, North Florida: July 4th: High 90; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 90; rain chances 60% Sunday: High 90; rain chances 70% Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida: July 4th: High 87; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 85; rain chances 60% Sunday: High 87; rain chances 70% West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida: July 4th: High 85; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 83; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 84; rain chances 60% Sarasota to Fort Myers, Southwest Florida: July 4th: High 85; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 86; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 86; rain chances 70% "We can expect an increase in the possibility of showers and thunderstorms due to a low-pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which will enhance instability in the area between Tuesday and Thursday," according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network. Pensacola, western Panhandle: Tuesday: High 86; rain chances 90% Wednesday: High 90; rain chances 60% Thursday: High 93; rain chances 30% Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Tuesday: High 85; Rain chances 100% Wednesday: High 87; Rain chances 90% Thursday: High 91; Rain chances 60% Jacksonville, North Florida: Tuesday: High 91; Rain chances 80% Wednesday: High 90; Rain chances 90% Thursday: High 88; Rain chances 80% Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida: Tuesday: High 88; Rain chances 60% Wednesday: High 88; Rain chances 70% Thursday: High 86; Rain chances 70% West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida: Tuesday: High 84; Rain chances 70% Wednesday: High 85; Rain chances 60% Thursday: High 85; Rain chances 70% Sarasota to Fort Myers, Southwest Florida: Tuesday: High 89; Rain chances 50% Wednesday: High 86; Rain chances 70% Thursday: High 85; Rain chances 70% The average date for the third named storm in the Atlantic basin is Aug. 3, DaSilva said. Andrea, the first named storm of the season formed a little later than average, on June 24, four days past the average date of June 20 for the first named storm of the season. Barry formed June 29, well ahead of the historical average of July 17. Water temperatures in the Gulf would support tropical development, but wind shear and some dry air from Saharan dust would work against tropical development, DaSilva said. "We don't anticipate this blowing up into a hurricane. If it develops, it's likely to be a tropical depression or a tropical storm, which could enhance the rainfall across Florida." "Most of the time, 'homegrown' storms tend to be on the weaker side in terms of wind speed, but a lot of times they tend to be big rainmakers," DaSilva said. "They also give people less time to react because they form closer to the coast. You don't have the luxury of watching it come across the entirety of the Atlantic. We're urging people to follow the forecast updates closely over the next couple of days. "It's possible that nothing develops at all and it just happens to be a wetter weekend. But there is also the possibility that we might end up with a tropical depression or a tropical storm, and it can really enhance the rainfall, and we could have some flooding issues. "There isn't enough time. If anything develops, it would only be over the water for a day or two before pushing inland if it develops in the eastern Gulf." National Weather Service Mobile on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Tallahassee on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Jacksonville on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter We will continue to update our weather coverage as conditions warrant. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Fourth of July Florida weather forecast: Tropical storm ahead?
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
A potential tropical system could dump heavy rain on Florida this week
Florida could get doused by rain this week, regardless of whether a tropical system develops near its coast. The National Hurricane Center is watching the northern half of the state for potential tropical development this week, but forecasters give it a low chance of happening — 20% over the next seven days. Still, they say a frontal boundary could slow and stall in the area, potentially forming an area of low pressure near north Florida or over the eastern Gulf. 'Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little,' the hurricane center said Monday. Global storm models show the potential for development, but a relatively low likelihood, hence the 20% figure from the NHC. 'It doesn't look like it could be much, but with a holiday coming up it could make for a few wet days for parts of Florida,' Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel posted on X. The rain could arrive by the middle of the week and hang out until the weekend, said the Miami office of the National Weather Service. 'While uncertainty remains, this may result in some threat of flooding for South Florida if persistent rounds of heavy rainfall occur over urban areas. Forecast specifics will likely become more clear as we move forward in time,' forecasters said Sunday. Over the weekend, the second tropical storm of the season — Barry — sprang up over the coast of Mexico. Like Andrea before it last week, it was a short-lived storm. The next name on the list is Chantal.
Yahoo
22-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Florida faces rising heat, soaking rains as summer kicks off
The Brief Florida is staring down a higher-than-normal chance of both above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall through July, August and September, which means more heat and rain are coming at the same time. As of June 19, nearly all of peninsular Florida is in some level of drought, except for the Orlando metro. The higher-than-normal chance of above-average rainfall could possibly lead to trouble in the tropics. FLORIDA - The long-anticipated three-month summer outlook was released this week by federal forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, and let's just say it's about to get wetter and even warmer. Florida is staring down a higher-than-normal chance of both above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall through July, August and September, which means more heat and rain are coming at the same time. Local perspective As of June 19, nearly all of peninsular Florida is in some level of drought, except for the Orlando metro. The Panhandle region is also no longer in drought. The recent rains have helped a lot, but there's still much more to be done for most of our state. From the citrus groves of Polk County to the wetlands of Broward, soil moisture has been falling behind — fast. News of a rainy summer may interrupt pool and beach plans, but it isn't all bad. However, we are about to enter a pretty dry next week as the summer's first heat wave overtakes the eastern third of the U.S. Dig deeper The higher-than-normal chance of above-average rainfall could possibly lead to trouble in the tropics. Although NOAA doesn't make hurricane-specific forecasts in the graphic below, the above-normal precipitation forecast for Florida during the heart of hurricane season is definitely consistent with an active tropical pattern. Whether it's tropical storms or hurricanes, those downpours could be part of the reason rain chances are running higher. And with drought-parched ground, initial rains might run off rather than soak in, potentially boosting flash flooding risks. Then again, a few well-timed tropical systems — minus the damaging winds — could also help alleviate drought conditions across the state. In short, while the storm risk is real, there's also an opportunity for drought recovery — if the rain comes in manageable waves. Big picture view Nationwide, this summer is shaping up to be hot and dry in all the usual places — and then some. Above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the west, Southwest and Northeast, with a particularly high probability centered on the Intermountain West and Four Corners region, as well as New England. Meanwhile, the Upper Midwest and Plains will likely face a dryer-than-average season, which has big implications for corn and soybean crops — especially if early drought signals persist or expand. And don't forget the cities. With New York City, Boston and D.C. in line for above-average heat, expect urban heat risk and energy demand to spike. In places where air-conditioning access is limited, public health could be on the line — especially during multi-day heat waves. What you can do Seasonal outlooks show general trends, not specific forecasts. They don't tell us what will happen on any given day, whether highs or lows are driving the trend of temperatures being "above-normal" in this case, or give exact probabilities of it being warmer or cooler for your location. They also don't predict specific temperatures (highs or low), rainfall amounts, or even whether it'll be rain or snow. Rest assured, if we get snow in Florida this summer, there are bigger problems! What To Expect Florida's summer forecast is hot, humid and stormy, but also hopeful for beneficial rain (in the context of drought.) While the drought is real, so is the potential for a rebound. Just keep an eye on the tropics. We'll likely have higher energy bills with air conditioning working harder, but potentially lower water bills with less irrigation needed. As we say around here: When it rains, it really pours. Track live when storms move across your area using the FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar below. You can also watch as heavy rain moves across Central Florida on our Live Weather Cameras' page here. Brevard County Flagler County Lake County Marion County Osceola County Orange County Polk County Seminole County Sumter County Volusia County U.S./National Radar STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO: Download the FOX Local app for breaking news alerts, the latest news headlines Download the FOX 35 Storm Team Weather app for weather alerts & radar Sign up for FOX 35's daily newsletter for the latest morning headlines FOX Local:Stream FOX 35 newscasts, FOX 35 News+, Central Florida Eats on your smart TV The Source This story was written based on information shared by FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner and gathered from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Yahoo
07-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Searing heat to continue in Central Florida over the weekend
The heat we have seen for the last few days will continue across central Florida. Our high temperatures will range from 91 to 94 across the region, with the highest temperatures in Lake and Marion counties. Our chances of rain have mostly dried up for now. One or two passing showers are possible, primarily along the coast this afternoon and evening. No severe storms are anticipated. Rain chances will slowly increase over the next few days and peak in the middle of the upcoming week. The tropics are quiet for now. We are seeing a lot of Saharan dust over the Caribbean that will inhibit tropical development for at least a week. Click here to download our free news, weather and smart TV apps. And click here to stream Channel 9 Eyewitness News live.
