Could a tropical storm impact your Florida Fourth of July plans? Forecast, possible scenarios
Maybe, but even if nothing develops — and there's only a low chance as of Monday, June 30 — you better have some inside backup activities planned, minus the fireworks, since it looks as if it'll be a wet weekend for the Sunshine State.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
A front is expected to move south and stall somewhere between the eastern Gulf and Atlantic waters off the southeastern U.S. Smack dab between those two points is Florida.
If the right conditions are there, they could "potentially ignite tropical development," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert in an email Monday, June 30.
"This is fairly common this time of the year, June and July, that you get old frontal boundaries kind of coming off the southeast coast and into the Gulf and stalling. And then you get a little area of spin to develop along that decaying cold front, and then that's how you get these usually fairly short-lived tropical systems early in the season.
"They tend to be a little on the weaker side, but they can bring a lot of rain, especially if they do develop. I think that's what we might end up seeing here."
The National Hurricane Center said on June 30 a frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week.
➤ National Hurricane Center tracking system that could stall over Florida
An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
"A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," DaSilva said.
"The Fourth of July looks pretty wet overall for the state of Florida, especially the peninsula," DaSilva said.
"This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next five to seven days," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
"However, this system could bring increase shower and thunderstorm activity and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely.
"Models disagree on this exact point about where tropical development could occur," according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.
"The American model depicts a very broad, yet undefined, center of circulation. This wide area of low pressure would form west of Florida over the eastern Gulf.
"The European model shows a low-pressure system remaining east of Florida, approximately 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral.
"These two models represent two very different scenarios; they could produce opposite results regarding the weather for the holiday weekend in Florida," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said.
"If the American model verifies and a storm develops over the Gulf, there could be increased rainfall activity for the Florida peninsula during the holiday weekend. If the European model is confirmed, conditions are likely to remain drier than normal for the July 4th weekend."
"It's kind of equal chances right now on which side of Florida it happens on," DaSilva said.
"For Florida's sake, it would be better for it to happen east of Florida because then it would likely just get pushed out to sea.
"If it happens in the Gulf, it's likely to be pushed eastward into Florida, although there are some indications that, depending on the strength of the Bermuda High, it could actually push the storm a little farther west, maybe towards Louisiana. I think that's a fairly low chance right now," DaSilva said.
"I think the most likely would it be just pushed east into Florida. But that's something that we would have to watch for as well."
The system moving east over the U.S. could "ignite" a tropical system, the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said.
Even if there is no tropical development, expect plenty of rain this week and into the holiday weekend across Florida, DaSilva said.
"We must continue to monitor the progress of the frontal system, which will inject and deliver sufficient energy near Florida. At this point, it is impossible to know precisely where, and if, a storm could form," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said.
Here's the forecast around Florida for the holiday weekend:
Pensacola, western Panhandle:
July 4th: High 94; rain chances 20%
Saturday: High 93; rain chances 40%
Sunday: High 91; rain chances 60%
Tallahassee, central Panhandle:
July 4th: High 93; rain chances 60%
Saturday: High 91; rain chances 60%
Sunday: High 90; rain chances 60%
Jacksonville, North Florida:
July 4th: High 90; rain chances 70%
Saturday: High 90; rain chances 60%
Sunday: High 90; rain chances 70%
Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida:
July 4th: High 87; rain chances 70%
Saturday: High 85; rain chances 60%
Sunday: High 87; rain chances 70%
West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida:
July 4th: High 85; rain chances 70%
Saturday: High 83; rain chances 70%
Sunday: High 84; rain chances 60%
Sarasota to Fort Myers, Southwest Florida:
July 4th: High 85; rain chances 70%
Saturday: High 86; rain chances 70%
Sunday: High 86; rain chances 70%
"We can expect an increase in the possibility of showers and thunderstorms due to a low-pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which will enhance instability in the area between Tuesday and Thursday," according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.
Pensacola, western Panhandle:
Tuesday: High 86; rain chances 90%
Wednesday: High 90; rain chances 60%
Thursday: High 93; rain chances 30%
Tallahassee, central Panhandle:
Tuesday: High 85; Rain chances 100%
Wednesday: High 87; Rain chances 90%
Thursday: High 91; Rain chances 60%
Jacksonville, North Florida:
Tuesday: High 91; Rain chances 80%
Wednesday: High 90; Rain chances 90%
Thursday: High 88; Rain chances 80%
Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida:
Tuesday: High 88; Rain chances 60%
Wednesday: High 88; Rain chances 70%
Thursday: High 86; Rain chances 70%
West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida:
Tuesday: High 84; Rain chances 70%
Wednesday: High 85; Rain chances 60%
Thursday: High 85; Rain chances 70%
Sarasota to Fort Myers, Southwest Florida:
Tuesday: High 89; Rain chances 50%
Wednesday: High 86; Rain chances 70%
Thursday: High 85; Rain chances 70%
The average date for the third named storm in the Atlantic basin is Aug. 3, DaSilva said.
Andrea, the first named storm of the season formed a little later than average, on June 24, four days past the average date of June 20 for the first named storm of the season.
Barry formed June 29, well ahead of the historical average of July 17.
Water temperatures in the Gulf would support tropical development, but wind shear and some dry air from Saharan dust would work against tropical development, DaSilva said.
"We don't anticipate this blowing up into a hurricane. If it develops, it's likely to be a tropical depression or a tropical storm, which could enhance the rainfall across Florida."
"Most of the time, 'homegrown' storms tend to be on the weaker side in terms of wind speed, but a lot of times they tend to be big rainmakers," DaSilva said.
"They also give people less time to react because they form closer to the coast. You don't have the luxury of watching it come across the entirety of the Atlantic. We're urging people to follow the forecast updates closely over the next couple of days.
"It's possible that nothing develops at all and it just happens to be a wetter weekend. But there is also the possibility that we might end up with a tropical depression or a tropical storm, and it can really enhance the rainfall, and we could have some flooding issues.
"There isn't enough time. If anything develops, it would only be over the water for a day or two before pushing inland if it develops in the eastern Gulf."
National Weather Service Mobile on X, formerly known as Twitter
National Weather Service Tallahassee on X, formerly known as Twitter
National Weather Service Jacksonville on X, formerly known as Twitter
National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter
National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter
National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter
We will continue to update our weather coverage as conditions warrant. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Fourth of July Florida weather forecast: Tropical storm ahead?
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
How could rain impact July 4th in the Tampa Bay area? Here's the latest timeline
The Brief Tropical downpours are expected later this week, including on the Fourth of July, according to FOX 13 meteorologists. A disturbance in the northeastern Gulf has a 20 percent chance of development, and will act as a rainmaker either way. The highest rain chances come later this week, including Friday. TAMPA, Fla. - July 4th will likely come with rain as part of an unsettled week of weather in the Tampa Bay area. FOX 13 meteorologists say an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf is leading to an increased chance of downpours over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a 30 percent chance of development in the next seven days – but whether it develops or not, meteorologists say it will act as a rainmaker. Big picture view FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says rain and storms will arrive later on Tuesday compared to Monday, with the highest coverage of rain coming in the PM hours. The high temperature will reach the upper 80s in Tampa – down from the average high of 91. What's next Osterberg says rain chances will go up later this week as a frontal boundary moves south, then gets "hung up" just north of the Bay Area by Thursday, July 3. That should bring more waves of rain our way in time for Independence Day as deep tropical moisture moves over Central Florida. As of Tuesday morning, rain chances are expected to reach 70 percent on Thursday and Friday, with several inches of total rainfall expected over the next week. As for whether the whole Fourth of July will be a washout for everyone: not necessarily, according to Osterberg. "It's important to note that during this whole wet pattern, it's not going to rain all day every day," Osterberg said. Still, rain will be something to watch for through the holiday weekend and into next week, as well. The Source This story was written with information from FOX 13 meteorologists.
33 minutes ago
Hurricane Flossie is now a Category 2 off the Pacific coast of Mexico
MIAMI -- Hurricane Flossie strengthened to a Category 2 cyclone Tuesday morning off the Pacific coast of Mexico, forecasters said. The National Hurricane Center said Flossie had maximum sustained winds at 100 mph (155 kph) and that rain was falling over parts of coastal Mexico. The hurricane was centered 150 miles (245 kilometers) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Flossie was moving to the northwest at 10 mph (17 kph) and was expected to continue that motion over the next few days. The system should move away from southwestern Mexico by Tuesday night, forecasters said. The hurricane was forecast to continue strengthening and could be a major hurricane as soon as Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. A major hurricane is classified as Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph (180 kph).
Washington Post
an hour ago
- Washington Post
Storms or sun on the Fourth of July? What to know about the U.S. forecast.
The Fourth of July is often when peak summertime sets in across much of the country. While people in some spots will see high heat, and others will need to dodge thunderstorms, many might remember this Independence Day as a relatively pleasant one. Notable heat will mostly target the central United States, while cooler-than-average conditions will dominate portions of the northeast quadrant of the U.S. and the West Coast.
