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How Trump's game-planning for the 2026 midterms
How Trump's game-planning for the 2026 midterms

Axios

time21-07-2025

  • Business
  • Axios

How Trump's game-planning for the 2026 midterms

President Trump is already fixated behind the scenes on next year's midterm elections for the House and Senate — unleashing his billion-dollar political operation and personally burrowing into the minutiae of races. Why it matters: Now that his "big beautiful bill" has passed Congress, Trump's ability to accomplish more big things there — and avoid impeachment — hinges on keeping the GOP's razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress in his last two years in office. Zoom in: Even with all that's swirling around Trump — foreign conflicts, deportations, tariffs, the Jeffrey Epstein fallout — he's micro-level focused on 2026 races. One example: Trump's been particularly locked in on the already messy GOP Senate primary in Texas, where polls indicate Sen. John Cornyn is trailing scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime Trump loyalist. After Paxton's wife announced she was filing for divorce, White House insiders say, Trump — who hasn't endorsed in the race — was aware of it within an hour. He's been asking others about its political impact. Here's how Trump's team is laying the groundwork for 2026: 1. Money muscle Trump's biggest asset could be his enormously well-heeled political operation, for which he continues to aggressively raise money. Trump has told congressional Republicans he plans to spend heavily on their races. He's also planning to headline a big Republican National Committee fundraiser in D.C. this fall. Trump political lieutenants James Blair and Tony Fabrizio are slated to appear at an upcoming donor retreat to be held by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Trump's operation will soon set up fundraising vehicles for candidates in several high-profile races to allow the Trump team to quickly raise money for them. 2. Recruit aggressively The White House is seeking candidates to run in several key races. Trump himself is expected to get involved if an on-the-fence prospect needs a push. Trump aides currently are trying to land a recruit in the race for New Hampshire's vacant Senate seat, for example. White House political director Matt Brasseaux has been attending House candidate recruitment meetings being organized by Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump aide. 3. Early redistricting Trump is pushing for Texas Republicans to redraw the state's House districts five years early to create more GOP-friendly seats. That could net as many as five new GOP-held seats and dilute Democrats' voting power — but it carries risks. It almost certainly would face court challenges, and some Republicans worry that some of the party's incumbents could be endangered by shifting GOP voters to districts now represented by Democrats. It also could lead blue states to try the same thing to favor Democrats. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has threatened as much in that state. Democrats already outnumber Republicans in California's House delegation, 43-9. Trump urged members of Texas' congressional delegation to get on board with his plan during a call this week, and his team is eyeing other states for possible redistricting. 4. Keep selling Trump's big bill The White House is drawing up plans to spend the next year-plus selling Trump's domestic policy mega-bill to voters. That won't be easy: Polls indicate the measure — which includes tax cuts and a range of cuts to social programs — isn't popular. Trump and his cabinet members plan to travel to battleground areas to promote provisions of the bill Trump's team sees as politically palatable. Last week, Vice President Vance touted the bill in eastern Pennsylvania. Fabrizio spoke to a small group of House Republicans a few days ago to offer guidance on messaging, and Blair recently addressed a Senate GOP lunch with Trump pollster David Lee. The White House is planning an August retreat for congressional staffers to discuss how to promote the bill. 5. Stave off retirements Trump is trying to use his political sway to persuade battleground Republicans from vacating their seats. Trump this month helped get Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn to seek reelection to his competitive district, rather than run for governor. The White House also is trying to keep Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst from retiring. Ernst drew fire — and a Democratic opponent — recently when she told a group of constituents, "We all are going to die," in response to concerns about Medicaid cuts in Trump's megabill. But top Republicans worry her retirement would complicate their prospects of keeping the Republican-friendly seat. 6. Endorse — and attack — in primaries Trump plans to use his dominance over the GOP to shape primaries — either to ensure the party nominates who he sees as the most electable candidates for the general election, or to punish Republicans who've crossed him. He's endorsed more than a dozen House Republicans from swing seats to try to protect them from costly primary challenges, and is expected to endorse more. He recently met with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to discuss the state's Senate primary for the seat now held by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. The White House is eager to avoid a bloody primary and is determining how to engage, similar to its wait-and-see posture in the Texas Senate primary. Trump's political operation has run a pair of ads targeting Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, who was one of two House Republicans to vote against the megabill. What they're saying: " The president understands that good politics makes even better policy and has embarked on ... a multidimensional effort aimed at expanding the House and Senate majorities," said Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump political adviser.

Rising: June 27, 2025
Rising: June 27, 2025

The Hill

time27-06-2025

  • Politics
  • The Hill

Rising: June 27, 2025

GOP hardliners fume over Senate parliamentarian axing key aspects of 'Big, Beautiful Bill' | RISING Amber Duke and Bofta Yiman discuss President Trump's push to pass the 'Big Beautiful Bill' while some House Republicans are fuming over the Senate parliamentarian's decision to ax certain GOP-friendly provisions. #BigBeautifulBill #Medicaid #Budget Trump calls for firing of CNN, NYT reporters who wrote Iran strikes story | RISING Amber Duke and Bofta Yiman discuss President Trump's meltdown over the mainstream media reporting that U.S. strikes on the Iranian nuclear sites only set them back by a few months. #Iran #NYT #Trump #CNN Elissa Slotkin calls for ban on cell phones in all K-12 classrooms | RISING Amber Duke and Bofta Yiman discuss Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) calling for a ban on cell phones in all K-12 classrooms in the country. #CellPhones #Schools #ElissaSlotkin 'Thomas Massie targeted by AIPAC, Trump for primary challenge | RISING Amber Duke and Bofta Yiman discuss the escalating rift between Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky) and President Trump. #Massie #MAGA #Trump Jasmine Crockett blasts Melania Trump over 'Einstein Visa': 'Math ain't mathin' | RISING Amber Duke and Bofta Yiman discuss Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) questioning First Lady Melania Trump's reported 'Einstein visa' amid the Trump administration's ongoing immigration crackdown. #Immigration #Melania #Trump Jeff Bezos, Lauren Sanchez forced to move Venice wedding location due to protesters | RISING Amber Duke and Bofta Yiman discuss the backlash to the lavish wedding of billionaire Jeff Bezos and journalist-turned philanthropist Lauren Sanchez. #JeffBezos #LaureSanchez #VeniceWedding

K Street vs. House Republicans on the IRA
K Street vs. House Republicans on the IRA

Axios

time15-05-2025

  • Business
  • Axios

K Street vs. House Republicans on the IRA

The next phases of the IRA battle could pit GOP-friendly K Street players against House Republicans over the fate of major subsidies. Why it matters: It highlights how legacy fossil fuel companies and groups have branched into climate tech sectors like hydrogen, offshore wind and carbon capture. State of play: The National Ocean Industries Association — which reps offshore oil and renewables sectors alike — this week warned against "premature" repeal or phaseout of various credits. The group supports policies like clean energy production and investment tax credits, and incentives for supply chain manufacturing. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute and National Association of Manufacturers both signed a letter urging against killing hydrogen credits. The big picture: Oil companies and manufacturers remain broadly and publicly supportive of the GOP deregulatory push and making more lands available for drilling. But they also want long-term certainty for their diversification plans. Catch up quick: The House Ways and Means panel approved a sweeping reconciliation bill Wednesday that either weakened or dismantled many IRA credits. What we're watching: Changes could in theory happen on the House floor as some GOP members gently argue Ways and Means went too far in various areas. Axios Pro's Daniel Moore reports that geothermal executives are reminding lawmakers that Energy Secretary Chris Wright is a fan of the tech. But attention is also shifting across the Capitol, where several GOP senators are already expressing misgivings about the House plan. The intrigue: The House plan to end "transferability" of key tax credits could also hinder sectors that have bipartisan support, House Axios Pro Deals' Katie Fehrenbacher reports. That includes nuclear power, biofuels and carbon capture. What they're saying: TD Cowen Washington Research Group, in a note, predicts the Senate will take a "hard look" at many House rollbacks. That includes removing electricity tax credit "transferability" and killing the hydrogen credits, to name just two.

Scoop: Senate gears up for Trump 2.0 judge confirmations
Scoop: Senate gears up for Trump 2.0 judge confirmations

Axios

time13-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Axios

Scoop: Senate gears up for Trump 2.0 judge confirmations

Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is scheduling a June 4 hearing for the first slate of nominated judges of President Trump's second term — a push for speedy confirmations, Axios has learned. Why it matters: Trump and his allies, including Grassley, have railed against federal courts hamstringing the administration. Now, Senate Republicans aim to put more GOP-friendly judges on the bench. Trump took longer to nominate judges this time around than he did in 2017 or former President Biden did in 2021. Grassley is now setting the hearing for the earliest day possible. Committee rules require him to wait 28 days after receiving the nominations. What he's saying: "Far too many judges are attempting to play policymaker instead of plainly interpreting the law, as our Constitution requires," Grassley said in a statement provided to Axios. "It's clear the federal judiciary needs more constitutionalist judges, and that's what President Trump's judicial nominees will deliver." Zoom in: All five current nominees will be questioned in the same committee hearing. Trump has nominated Zachary Bluestone, Joshua Divine, Maria Lanahan and Cristian Stevens to serve on the U.S. District Court in Missouri. He also nominated Whitney Hermandorfer to serve on the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. By the numbers: There are just 46 judicial vacancies for Trump to fill, right now — far fewer than at the start of his first term. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) made judges a top priority when he was leader. He set a record of 234 confirmed judges in one presidential term, which included three Supreme Court justices. Then-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) broke that record in late December, reaching 235 confirmed judges. It will be difficult for Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) to beat his predecessors, barring a wave of retirements leading to more judicial vacancies.

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