
How Trump's game-planning for the 2026 midterms
Why it matters: Now that his "big beautiful bill" has passed Congress, Trump's ability to accomplish more big things there — and avoid impeachment — hinges on keeping the GOP's razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress in his last two years in office.
Zoom in: Even with all that's swirling around Trump — foreign conflicts, deportations, tariffs, the Jeffrey Epstein fallout — he's micro-level focused on 2026 races.
One example: Trump's been particularly locked in on the already messy GOP Senate primary in Texas, where polls indicate Sen. John Cornyn is trailing scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime Trump loyalist.
After Paxton's wife announced she was filing for divorce, White House insiders say, Trump — who hasn't endorsed in the race — was aware of it within an hour. He's been asking others about its political impact.
Here's how Trump's team is laying the groundwork for 2026:
1. Money muscle
Trump's biggest asset could be his enormously well-heeled political operation, for which he continues to aggressively raise money. Trump has told congressional Republicans he plans to spend heavily on their races.
He's also planning to headline a big Republican National Committee fundraiser in D.C. this fall.
Trump political lieutenants James Blair and Tony Fabrizio are slated to appear at an upcoming donor retreat to be held by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
Trump's operation will soon set up fundraising vehicles for candidates in several high-profile races to allow the Trump team to quickly raise money for them.
2. Recruit aggressively
The White House is seeking candidates to run in several key races. Trump himself is expected to get involved if an on-the-fence prospect needs a push.
Trump aides currently are trying to land a recruit in the race for New Hampshire's vacant Senate seat, for example.
White House political director Matt Brasseaux has been attending House candidate recruitment meetings being organized by Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump aide.
3. Early redistricting
Trump is pushing for Texas Republicans to redraw the state's House districts five years early to create more GOP-friendly seats.
That could net as many as five new GOP-held seats and dilute Democrats' voting power — but it carries risks.
It almost certainly would face court challenges, and some Republicans worry that some of the party's incumbents could be endangered by shifting GOP voters to districts now represented by Democrats.
It also could lead blue states to try the same thing to favor Democrats. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has threatened as much in that state. Democrats already outnumber Republicans in California's House delegation, 43-9.
Trump urged members of Texas' congressional delegation to get on board with his plan during a call this week, and his team is eyeing other states for possible redistricting.
4. Keep selling Trump's big bill
The White House is drawing up plans to spend the next year-plus selling Trump's domestic policy mega-bill to voters. That won't be easy: Polls indicate the measure — which includes tax cuts and a range of cuts to social programs — isn't popular.
Trump and his cabinet members plan to travel to battleground areas to promote provisions of the bill Trump's team sees as politically palatable. Last week, Vice President Vance touted the bill in eastern Pennsylvania.
Fabrizio spoke to a small group of House Republicans a few days ago to offer guidance on messaging, and Blair recently addressed a Senate GOP lunch with Trump pollster David Lee.
The White House is planning an August retreat for congressional staffers to discuss how to promote the bill.
5. Stave off retirements
Trump is trying to use his political sway to persuade battleground Republicans from vacating their seats.
Trump this month helped get Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn to seek reelection to his competitive district, rather than run for governor.
The White House also is trying to keep Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst from retiring.
Ernst drew fire — and a Democratic opponent — recently when she told a group of constituents, "We all are going to die," in response to concerns about Medicaid cuts in Trump's megabill. But top Republicans worry her retirement would complicate their prospects of keeping the Republican-friendly seat.
6. Endorse — and attack — in primaries
Trump plans to use his dominance over the GOP to shape primaries — either to ensure the party nominates who he sees as the most electable candidates for the general election, or to punish Republicans who've crossed him.
He's endorsed more than a dozen House Republicans from swing seats to try to protect them from costly primary challenges, and is expected to endorse more.
He recently met with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to discuss the state's Senate primary for the seat now held by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. The White House is eager to avoid a bloody primary and is determining how to engage, similar to its wait-and-see posture in the Texas Senate primary.
Trump's political operation has run a pair of ads targeting Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, who was one of two House Republicans to vote against the megabill.
What they're saying: " The president understands that good politics makes even better policy and has embarked on ... a multidimensional effort aimed at expanding the House and Senate majorities," said Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump political adviser.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stocks Supported as US Announces a Trade Deal with Japan
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.17%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.21%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.15%. Stock indexes today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 2-week high. Stocks found support today on some positive trade news that has boosted market sentiment. President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan late Tuesday, which will impose 15% tariffs on imports from Japanese, lower than the previously announced 25% rate set to take effect on August 1. The deal also creates a $550 billion fund for Japan to invest in the US. Japan also agreed to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, increase its purchases of US rice by 75%, and buy $8 billion in other agricultural products, while raising its defense spending with American firms to $17 billion annually, from $14 billion. More News from Barchart Nvidia Stock Warning: This NVDA Challenger Just Scored a Major Customer Dear Microsoft Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 30 Dear QuantumScape Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 23 Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. However, the Nasdaq 100 index is under pressure today due to weakness in auto-related chip makers, with Texas Instruments down more than -10% after company executives on an earnings call said there isn't a "true broad recovery" in the automotive sector as automotive customers who ship into the US are cautious due to tariffs. US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.8% in the week ended July 18, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +3.4% and the refinancing sub-index down -2.6%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +2 bp to 6.84% from 6.82% in the prior week. Recent trade news has put some downward pressure on stocks. Last Wednesday, President Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. Also, President Trump recently announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. In addition, Mr. Trump said that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. The markets this week will focus on any tariff news along with the announcement of any new trade deals. Later today, Jun existing home sales are expected to fall -0.7% m/m to 4.00 million. After today's close, Alphabet and Tesla will release their quarterly earnings. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +5,000 to 226,000. Also, the July S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to slip -0.2 to 52.7. Finally, on Thursday, June new home sales are expected to climb +4.3% m/m to 650,000. On Friday, June capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts are expected to increase by +0.2% m/m. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. The markets are absorbing a heavy slate of quarterly corporate earnings results this week. About one-fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report their Q2 earnings results this week. Early results now show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise +3.2% for the second quarter, better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research. Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.04%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a new 9.5-month high and closed up +0.01%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 1-year high and closed up sharply by +3.51%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.8 bp to 4.372%. T-notes are retreating today after the announcement of a trade deal between Japan and the US reduced safe-haven demand for government debt. Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today. Easing inflation expectations are limiting losses in T-notes as the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low today of 2.388%. European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.8 bp to 2.608%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +4.4 bp to 4.613%. Swaps are discounting the chances at 2% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. US Stock Movers Power producers are climbing today after PJM Interconnection LLC predicted that the AI boom will prompt businesses and households served by the largest US power grid to spend a record $16.1 billion to ensure electricity supplies, which could support utility profit margins. Vistra (VST) is up more than +8% and Constellation Group (CEG) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Talen Energy (TLN) is up more than +7%, and NRG Energy (NRG) is up more than +5%. Weakness in shares of automotive and industrial chipmakers is limiting gains in the Nasdaq 100, with Texas Instruments (TXN) down more than -12% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after company executives on an earnings call said there isn't a "true broad recovery" in the automotive sector as automotive customers who ship into the US are cautious due to tariffs. Also, Microchip Technology (MCHP) is down more than -8%, ON Semiconductor (ON) is down more than -5%, and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Analog Devices (ADI) are down more than -3%. In addition, Global Foundries (GFS) is down more than -2%. Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 net sales of $1.68 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.59 billion. GE Vernova (GEV) is up more than +11% after reporting Q2 revenue of $9.11 billion, stronger than the consensus of $8.80 billion. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is up more than +10% after reporting Q2 revenue of $10.86 billion, above the consensus of $10.69 billion, and forecasting full-year sales of $43.6 billion-$44.2 billion, the midpoint above the consensus of $43.7 billion. Lennox International (LII) is up more than +9% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $7.82, well above the consensus of $6.89. TE Connectivity Plc (TEL) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 net sales of $4.53 billion, better than the consensus of $4.33 billion, and forecasting Q4 net sales of $4.55 billion, above the consensus of $4.42 billion. Manhattan Associates (MANH) is up more than +15% after reporting Q2 revenue of $272.4 million, better than the consensus of $263.7 million, and boosting its full-year revenue forecast to $1.07 billion-$1.08 billion from a previous forecast of $1.06 billion-$1.07 billion, higher than the consensus of $1.06 billion. Capital One Financial (COF) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $12.49 billion, above the consensus of $11.84 billion. Fiserv (FI) is down more than -20% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 organic revenue grew +8.00%, below the consensus of +8.91%. Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is down more than -11% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.60 billion, below the consensus of $3.71 million, and cutting its full-year net sales forecast to $114.5 billion to $14.6 billion from a previous estimate of $14.6 billion to $14.8 billion, weaker than the consensus of $14.72 billion. Unity Software (U) is down more than -4% after BTIG downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $25. Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) is down more than -3% after reporting Q2 provision for credit losses of $16.5 million, well above the consensus of $4.31 million. AT&T (T) is down more than -1% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $1.97-$2.07, below the consensus of $2.09. Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) is down more than -1% after cutting its full-year net income forecast to $1.64 billion to $1.68 billion from a previous forecast of $1.71 billion to $1.75 billion. Earnings Reports (7/23/2025) Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), Amphenol Corp (APH), AT&T Inc (T), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Castle Inc (CCI), CSX Corp (CSX), Fiserv Inc (FI), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Globe Life Inc (GL), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), International Business Machine (IBM), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Lennox International Inc (LII), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH), Moody's Corp (MCO), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), NVR Inc (NVR), O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF), Rollins Inc (ROL), ServiceNow Inc (NOW), TE Connectivity PLC (TEL), Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), United Rentals Inc (URI). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on


WIRED
19 minutes ago
- WIRED
Trump's AI Action Plan Is a Crusade Against ‘Bias'—and Regulation
Jul 23, 2025 10:52 AM The Trump administration's new AI policy blueprint calls for limited regulation and lots of leeway for Big Tech to grow even bigger. Photo-Illustration:On Wednesday, the Trump Administration unveiled its new artificial intelligence action plan geared at keeping US efforts competitive with China. With over 90 policies recommended, it's a wide-ranging document that, if followed, would give Silicon Valley's most powerful companies even more leeway to grow. 'We believe we're in an AI race,' White House AI czar David Sacks said on a call ahead of the action plan's release. 'We want the United States to win that race.' The Office of Science and Technology Policy drafted the plan, which focuses on three key 'pillars' for AI strategy: accelerating AI innovation, building infrastructure, and leading international diplomacy and security. The report opens by stressing that 'AI is far too important to smother in bureaucracy at this early stage, whether at the state or Federal level.' It recommends a series of policies designed to loosen regulations and burdens on the tech companies developing artificial intelligence products, like encouraging the Federal Communications Commission to 'evaluate whether state AI regulations interfere with the agency's ability to carry out its obligations and authorities under the Communications Act of 1934.' 'We need to build and maintain vast AI infrastructure and the energy to power it. To do that, we will continue to reject radical climate dogma and bureaucratic red tape, as the Administration has done since Inauguration Day,' the report reads. 'Simply put, we need to 'Build, Baby, Build!'' In addition to releasing this report, President Donald Trump is expected to sign several executive orders later this afternoon that are expected to map onto the priorities outlined in the action plan. AI has been a priority for the past two US administrations, but Trump's second term has been characterized by major calibrations as the sector has exploded in prominence. In October 2023, the Biden Administration introduced an AI Executive Order designed to address numerous risks posed by rapidly advancing AI models. The order focused on issues like the potential for AI models to be used as cybersecurity weapons or to help produce chemical or biological weapons, as well as algorithmic bias. This new action plan explicitly seeks to undo efforts undertaken during the Biden Administration, like reviewing all of the Federal Trade Commission investigations it commenced 'to ensure that they do not advance theories of liability that unduly burden AI innovation.' The plan builds on the Trump Administration's previous approach to AI. Shortly after Trump took office, Vice President JD Vance gave a speech at a major AI meeting in Paris where he laid out the new administration's priorities. 'We believe that excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just as it's taking off, and we'll make every effort to encourage pro-growth AI policies,' Vance said, adding, 'we feel strongly that AI must remain free from ideological bias, and that American AI will not be co-opted into a tool for authoritarian censorship.' The AI Action Plan continues this crusade against 'woke' AI, recommending that federal procurement guidelines are updated so that only AI companies that 'ensure that their systems are objective and free from top-down ideological bias' are given contracts. Trump has also taken steps to help build out US AI capacity domestically and abroad. A day after his inauguration, the president announced a joint venture between Softbank, Oracle, and OpenAI called Stargate that promised to build at least $100 billion in datacenter capacity in the US. In May, Trump and an entourage of tech leaders traveled to several gulf nations to announce a series of deals involving the construction of AI infrastructure across the region. Trump's desire to advance US AI interests is also reshaping foreign policy. During his first administration the president imposed export controls on Huawei and other Chinese firms aimed at slowing their ability to develop AI. Last week, the US government reversed restrictions on certain cutting-edge Nvidia and AMD chip sales to China, apparently shifting its focus towards helping US companies compete globally. A variety of tech, consumer protection, and civil society organizations are already speaking out with concerns about the action plan. Sarah Myers West and Amba Kak, the co-executive directors of the AI Now Institute, characterized the plan in a statement to WIRED as 'written by Big Tech interests invested in advancing AI that's used on us, not by us.' This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.


Fox News
19 minutes ago
- Fox News
Federal judge partially blocks law banning adults from helping minors get out-of-state abortions
A federal judge has blocked a portion of a Tennessee law that made it a crime for adults to help minors obtain out-of-state abortions without parental consent. Known for prohibiting "abortion trafficking of a minor," the law, enacted in 2024 by Republican Gov. Bill Lee, with support from the GOP-controlled legislature, criminalizes certain behavior toward pregnant, unemancipated minors by adults who are not their parents or legal guardians who help them receive abortions – even if the abortion is legal in another state. U.S. Circuit Judge Julia Gibbons, an appointee of former President George W. Bush, took issue with the law's "recruitment provision," which criminalizes giving information to minors about how to receive an abortion out of state or helping minors make travel plans. In a summary judgment Friday, Gibbons agreed the provision violates the First Amendment because it "prohibits speech encouraging lawful abortion while allowing speech discouraging lawful abortion." "That is impermissible viewpoint discrimination, which the First Amendment rarely tolerates – and does not tolerate here," Gibbons, who sits on the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, wrote. Gibbons permanently blocked enforcement of the provision banning encouraging a minor to seek a legal out-of-state abortion. "The recruitment provision targets speech because of its message – that abortion is safe, common and normal – and available in certain states – and is presumptively unconstitutional," the judge added. Gibbons noted that she was brought in to hear this lower court case after four judges from the Middle District of Tennessee recused themselves. If Tennessee appeals the decision, the case will advance to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. The Tennessee attorney general has already appealed a November decision by U.S. District Judge Aleta Trauger that temporarily blocked the recruitment provision. That appeal remains pending in the Sixth Circuit Court. The case was brought by Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn, who is a licensed social worker, and Rachel Welty, a Nashville attorney and pro-abortion advocate. "Because plaintiffs wish to speak about legal abortions and seek to help minors obtain legal, out-of-state abortions, their intended speech is protected under the First Amendment," Gibbons wrote. In response to the decision, Welty and Behn's lead counsel, Daniel A. Horwitz, said Gibbons' "thoughtful and well-reasoned opinion protects the right of all Tennesseans to share truthful information about abortion without fear that crusading prosecutors will try to punish them criminally for doing so." "It also affirms that the government has no authority to enact overbroad laws that criminalize pure speech based on the government's disagreement with a speaker's point of view," he added in a statement. "This is a major victory for Ms. Welty, Representative Behn, and all Tennesseans who believe that the government has no right to prosecute citizens for sharing truthful information." In the final decision, Gibbons, however, rejected the plaintiffs' claims that the law is too vague to be constitutional under the Due Process Clause. The judge sided with the state on that matter, saying the law is sufficiently specific in what behavior is forbidden. Gibbons did not block portions of the law criminalizing physically transporting minors across state lines to receive an abortion or harboring a minor for the purpose of helping them receive an abortion. "The court grants summary judgment for the plaintiffs on their free speech claims and enjoins enforcement of the recruiting prong of the statute," Gibbons wrote. "The statute is not, however, void for vagueness. The court therefore grants summary judgment for defendants on plaintiff's vagueness claim." The law does not apply to the minor's parent or legal guardian, licensed media providers acting in emergency situations, or law enforcement acting within official duties. Violations constitute a Class A Misdemeanor punishable by up to 11 months and 29 days in jail or a fine of up to $2,500. The statute provides that violators "may be held liable in a civil action for the wrongful death of an unborn child who was aborted." After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Tennessee enforced a "trigger law," effectively banning abortions in most cases, with limited exceptions.