How Trump's game-planning for the 2026 midterms

Axios

4 days ago

President Trump is already fixated behind the scenes on next year's midterm elections for the House and Senate — unleashing his billion-dollar political operation and personally burrowing into the minutiae of races.
Why it matters: Now that his "big beautiful bill" has passed Congress, Trump's ability to accomplish more big things there — and avoid impeachment — hinges on keeping the GOP's razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress in his last two years in office.
Zoom in: Even with all that's swirling around Trump — foreign conflicts, deportations, tariffs, the Jeffrey Epstein fallout — he's micro-level focused on 2026 races.
One example: Trump's been particularly locked in on the already messy GOP Senate primary in Texas, where polls indicate Sen. John Cornyn is trailing scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime Trump loyalist.
After Paxton's wife announced she was filing for divorce, White House insiders say, Trump — who hasn't endorsed in the race — was aware of it within an hour. He's been asking others about its political impact.
Here's how Trump's team is laying the groundwork for 2026:
1. Money muscle
Trump's biggest asset could be his enormously well-heeled political operation, for which he continues to aggressively raise money. Trump has told congressional Republicans he plans to spend heavily on their races.
He's also planning to headline a big Republican National Committee fundraiser in D.C. this fall.
Trump political lieutenants James Blair and Tony Fabrizio are slated to appear at an upcoming donor retreat to be held by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
Trump's operation will soon set up fundraising vehicles for candidates in several high-profile races to allow the Trump team to quickly raise money for them.
2. Recruit aggressively
The White House is seeking candidates to run in several key races. Trump himself is expected to get involved if an on-the-fence prospect needs a push.
Trump aides currently are trying to land a recruit in the race for New Hampshire's vacant Senate seat, for example.
White House political director Matt Brasseaux has been attending House candidate recruitment meetings being organized by Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump aide.
3. Early redistricting
Trump is pushing for Texas Republicans to redraw the state's House districts five years early to create more GOP-friendly seats.
That could net as many as five new GOP-held seats and dilute Democrats' voting power — but it carries risks.
It almost certainly would face court challenges, and some Republicans worry that some of the party's incumbents could be endangered by shifting GOP voters to districts now represented by Democrats.
It also could lead blue states to try the same thing to favor Democrats. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has threatened as much in that state. Democrats already outnumber Republicans in California's House delegation, 43-9.
Trump urged members of Texas' congressional delegation to get on board with his plan during a call this week, and his team is eyeing other states for possible redistricting.
4. Keep selling Trump's big bill
The White House is drawing up plans to spend the next year-plus selling Trump's domestic policy mega-bill to voters. That won't be easy: Polls indicate the measure — which includes tax cuts and a range of cuts to social programs — isn't popular.
Trump and his cabinet members plan to travel to battleground areas to promote provisions of the bill Trump's team sees as politically palatable. Last week, Vice President Vance touted the bill in eastern Pennsylvania.
Fabrizio spoke to a small group of House Republicans a few days ago to offer guidance on messaging, and Blair recently addressed a Senate GOP lunch with Trump pollster David Lee.
The White House is planning an August retreat for congressional staffers to discuss how to promote the bill.
5. Stave off retirements
Trump is trying to use his political sway to persuade battleground Republicans from vacating their seats.
Trump this month helped get Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn to seek reelection to his competitive district, rather than run for governor.
The White House also is trying to keep Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst from retiring.
Ernst drew fire — and a Democratic opponent — recently when she told a group of constituents, "We all are going to die," in response to concerns about Medicaid cuts in Trump's megabill. But top Republicans worry her retirement would complicate their prospects of keeping the Republican-friendly seat.
6. Endorse — and attack — in primaries
Trump plans to use his dominance over the GOP to shape primaries — either to ensure the party nominates who he sees as the most electable candidates for the general election, or to punish Republicans who've crossed him.
He's endorsed more than a dozen House Republicans from swing seats to try to protect them from costly primary challenges, and is expected to endorse more.
He recently met with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to discuss the state's Senate primary for the seat now held by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. The White House is eager to avoid a bloody primary and is determining how to engage, similar to its wait-and-see posture in the Texas Senate primary.
Trump's political operation has run a pair of ads targeting Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, who was one of two House Republicans to vote against the megabill.
What they're saying: " The president understands that good politics makes even better policy and has embarked on ... a multidimensional effort aimed at expanding the House and Senate majorities," said Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump political adviser.