How Trump's game-planning for the 2026 midterms
Why it matters: Now that his "big beautiful bill" has passed Congress, Trump's ability to accomplish more big things there — and avoid impeachment — hinges on keeping the GOP's razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress in his last two years in office.
Zoom in: Even with all that's swirling around Trump — foreign conflicts, deportations, tariffs, the Jeffrey Epstein fallout — he's micro-level focused on 2026 races.
One example: Trump's been particularly locked in on the already messy GOP Senate primary in Texas, where polls indicate Sen. John Cornyn is trailing scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime Trump loyalist.
After Paxton's wife announced she was filing for divorce, White House insiders say, Trump — who hasn't endorsed in the race — was aware of it within an hour. He's been asking others about its political impact.
Here's how Trump's team is laying the groundwork for 2026:
1. Money muscle
Trump's biggest asset could be his enormously well-heeled political operation, for which he continues to aggressively raise money. Trump has told congressional Republicans he plans to spend heavily on their races.
He's also planning to headline a big Republican National Committee fundraiser in D.C. this fall.
Trump political lieutenants James Blair and Tony Fabrizio are slated to appear at an upcoming donor retreat to be held by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
Trump's operation will soon set up fundraising vehicles for candidates in several high-profile races to allow the Trump team to quickly raise money for them.
2. Recruit aggressively
The White House is seeking candidates to run in several key races. Trump himself is expected to get involved if an on-the-fence prospect needs a push.
Trump aides currently are trying to land a recruit in the race for New Hampshire's vacant Senate seat, for example.
White House political director Matt Brasseaux has been attending House candidate recruitment meetings being organized by Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump aide.
3. Early redistricting
Trump is pushing for Texas Republicans to redraw the state's House districts five years early to create more GOP-friendly seats.
That could net as many as five new GOP-held seats and dilute Democrats' voting power — but it carries risks.
It almost certainly would face court challenges, and some Republicans worry that some of the party's incumbents could be endangered by shifting GOP voters to districts now represented by Democrats.
It also could lead blue states to try the same thing to favor Democrats. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has threatened as much in that state. Democrats already outnumber Republicans in California's House delegation, 43-9.
Trump urged members of Texas' congressional delegation to get on board with his plan during a call this week, and his team is eyeing other states for possible redistricting.
4. Keep selling Trump's big bill
The White House is drawing up plans to spend the next year-plus selling Trump's domestic policy mega-bill to voters. That won't be easy: Polls indicate the measure — which includes tax cuts and a range of cuts to social programs — isn't popular.
Trump and his cabinet members plan to travel to battleground areas to promote provisions of the bill Trump's team sees as politically palatable. Last week, Vice President Vance touted the bill in eastern Pennsylvania.
Fabrizio spoke to a small group of House Republicans a few days ago to offer guidance on messaging, and Blair recently addressed a Senate GOP lunch with Trump pollster David Lee.
The White House is planning an August retreat for congressional staffers to discuss how to promote the bill.
5. Stave off retirements
Trump is trying to use his political sway to persuade battleground Republicans from vacating their seats.
Trump this month helped get Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn to seek reelection to his competitive district, rather than run for governor.
The White House also is trying to keep Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst from retiring.
Ernst drew fire — and a Democratic opponent — recently when she told a group of constituents, "We all are going to die," in response to concerns about Medicaid cuts in Trump's megabill. But top Republicans worry her retirement would complicate their prospects of keeping the Republican-friendly seat.
6. Endorse — and attack — in primaries
Trump plans to use his dominance over the GOP to shape primaries — either to ensure the party nominates who he sees as the most electable candidates for the general election, or to punish Republicans who've crossed him.
He's endorsed more than a dozen House Republicans from swing seats to try to protect them from costly primary challenges, and is expected to endorse more.
He recently met with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to discuss the state's Senate primary for the seat now held by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. The White House is eager to avoid a bloody primary and is determining how to engage, similar to its wait-and-see posture in the Texas Senate primary.
Trump's political operation has run a pair of ads targeting Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, who was one of two House Republicans to vote against the megabill.
What they're saying: " The president understands that good politics makes even better policy and has embarked on ... a multidimensional effort aimed at expanding the House and Senate majorities," said Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump political adviser.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
FCC chair pleased with Skydance vow to make changes at CBS
By David Shepardson (Reuters) -The chair of the Federal Communications Commission said on Thursday he is pleased with commitments that Skydance has made to make serious changes at CBS under a proposed merger with Paramount, but said the agency has not made a decision on the tie-up. CBS parent Paramount needs approval from the FCC for an $8.4-billion merger with Skydance Media. FCC Chair Brendan Carr said after a commission meeting the agency continues to review the deal and praised commitments to end diversity programs. Skydance has agreed to have an ombudsman in place for at least two years to evaluate complaints about bias in CBS News' programming if the deal is approved. "I was very pleased to see Skydance put in a filing that says if this deal goes through they are committing to serious changes at CBS. I think that would be a good thing," Carr said. "They have committed to addressing bias issues. They've committed to embracing fact-based journalism." Paramount declined to comment. Carr cited polls that Americans' trust in national programs has fallen to historic lows. This month, Paramount agreed to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit filed by U.S. President Donald Trump, claiming the CBS News program "60 Minutes" deceptively edited an interview with former Vice President Kamala Harris that the network broadcast in October. Paramount did not admit to any wrongdoing. The FCC has required other companies like T-Mobile and Verizon to end diversity, equity and inclusion programs before approving deals. In January, Trump issued sweeping executive orders to dismantle U.S. government DEI programs, and pressured the private sector to join the initiative. The FCC did not make a decision by the 180-day informal deadline in mid-May and Carr previously denied Trump's lawsuit was a factor. Trump and CBS formally agreed on Tuesday to the dismissal of his lawsuit, according to a court filing. Skydance and its investors plan to acquire National Amusements, which holds the family's controlling stake in Paramount. Skydance will subsequently be merged into Paramount, with its CEO David Ellison becoming Paramount's next chief executive. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump to check out Federal Reserve's pricey renovations
The Federal Reserve, known for its tight lips, structured formality and extraordinary power to shape the global economy, finds itself putting out the welcome mat for President Donald Trump. Trump and his allies say a $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion) renovation of the Fed headquarters and a neighbouring building reflects an institution run amok — a belief they hope to verify in a Thursday afternoon tour of the construction site. The Fed allowed reporters to tour the building before the visit by Trump, who in his real estate career, has bragged about his lavish spending on architectural accoutrements that gave a Versailles-like golden flair to his buildings. The visit is an attempt to further ratchet up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom the Republican president has relentlessly attacked for not cutting borrowing costs. Trump's attacks have put the Fed, a historically independent institution, under a harsh spotlight. Undermining its independence could reduce the Fed's ability to calm financial markets and stabilise the US economy. "This stubborn guy at the Fed just doesn't get it — Never did, and never will," Trump said Wednesday on Truth Social. "The Board should act, but they don't have the Courage to do so!" On Thursday, reporters wound through cement mixers, front loaders, and plastic pipes as they got a close-up view of the active construction site that encompasses the Fed's historic headquarters, known as the Marriner S Eccles building, and a second building across 20th Street in Washington. Fed staff pointed out new blast-resistant windows and seismic walls that were needed to comply with modern building codes and security standards set out by the Department of Homeland Security. The Fed has to build with the highest level of security in mind, Fed staff said, including something called "progressive collapse," in which only parts of the building would fall if hit with explosives. Sensitivity to the president's pending visit among Fed staff was high during the tour. Reporters were ushered into a small room outside the Fed's boardroom, where 19 officials meet eight times a year to decide whether to change short-term interest rates. The room, which will have a security booth, is oval-shaped, and someone had written "Oval Office" on plywood walls. The Fed staff downplayed the inscription as a joke. When reporters returned through the room later, it had been painted over. Plans for the renovation were first approved by the Fed's governing board in 2017. Fed staff also said tariffs and inflationary increases in building material costs also drove up costs. Trump in 2018 imposed a 25 per cent duty on steel and 10 per cent on aluminum. Steel prices are up about 60 per cent since the plans were approved in June, while construction materials costs overall are up about 50 per cent, according to government data. Fed staff also pointed to the complication of historic renovations — both buildings have significant preservation needs. Constructing a new building on an empty site would have been cheaper. The Fed has previously attributed much of the project's cost to underground construction. It is also adding three underground levels of parking for its second building. Initially, the central bank proposed building more above ground, but ran into Washington, DC's height restrictions, forcing more underground construction. When construction began in 2022, the Fed estimated the cost at $US1.9 billion ($A2.9 billion), and it has since grown by about 30 per cent. Trump wants Powell to dramatically slash the Fed's benchmark interest rate under the belief that inflation is not a problem, but Powell wants to see how Trump's tariffs impact the economy before making any rate cuts that could potentially cause inflation to accelerate. The renovation project has emerged as the possible justification by Trump to take the extraordinary step of firing Powell for cause, an act that some administration officials have played down, given that the Fed chair's term ends in May 2026. Pushing Powell out also would almost certainly jolt global markets, potentially having the opposite effect that Trump wants as he pushes for lower borrowing costs. When asked last week if the costly rebuilding could be grounds to fire Powell, Trump said, "I think it sort of is". Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Obama, sedition and Trump's urgent need to distract
To any American with an extremely short memory or perhaps a desire only to see the world through Donald Trump's eyes, the recent memo from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and the call from President Trump to investigate former President Barack Obama over the memo's claims of 'treasonous conspiracy' over claims of Russian interference in the 2016 election must be alarming. Talk of 'overwhelming evidence' and a 'yearslong coup,' 'seditious conspiracy' and 'treason' sure sound pretty serious. Well, they do until you quickly review your notes and recognize that A, President Trump has an urgent need for distraction given his ties to Jeffrey Epstein and the administration's failure to — despite big promises to the conspiracy-hungry during the presidential campaign — release details of the investigation into the late American financier and sex offender. And B, this is a subject that has been investigated to death with no fewer than four official inquiries, including a 2020 U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee report (written while the GOP had Senate control) and the special report authored by Trump-appointed special counsel John Durham that came out in 2023. And what did they find? There was ample reason to worry about Russian interference in the 2016 race, and it was clear the Kremlin didn't want Democrat Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office. Was then-candidate Trump complicit in these efforts? Nope, not in a manner those various investigators could prove. But Russian interference? There was ample evidence of computer hacking, of digging through emails and of using intermediaries to undermine Clinton (remember WikiLeaks?). Or how about simply remembering Robert S. Mueller III? The special counsel indicted a dozen Russians, none of whom has ever stood trial because they could not be extradited. Even then-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (now Trump's U.S. secretary of state) observed that interference signing off on that 2020 report, which concluded 'the Russian government inappropriately meddled in our 2016 general election in many ways but then-Candidate Trump was not complicit.' Hopefully, most people aren't taking these claims of treason seriously. They serve only to diminish Trump and Gabbard. Think those criminal referrals Gabbard has sent to the U.S. Department of Justice will result in a successful prosecution? Even Las Vegas will surely refuse wagers on that long shot. Those who still harbor doubts can go peruse those various reports (and their thousands of pages of findings). The rest of us will just have to be content to recognize that the current president and his cronies lie like rugs when it serves their purpose. Peter Jensen is an editorial writer at The Baltimore Sun; he can be reached at pejensen@
