Latest news with #GlacialLakeOutburstFloods
Time of India
3 days ago
- Science
- Time of India
Nagaland University leads research to assess high-altitude lake stability in Sikkim, Arunachal
1 2 Guwahati: A research initiative led by Nagaland University (NU) is creating a detailed, near-accurate inventory and stability analysis of high-altitude lakes in the Sikkim and Arunachal Himalayas. NU on Monday said the study will evaluate Tenbawa Lake's potential for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) and Holocene Climate connections, which began roughly 11,700 years ago, in Sikkim, alongside two glacial lakes in Arunachal Pradesh. The researchers said drone mapping and bathymetry surveys of the glaciers and glacial lakes would help produce a near-accurate database for modelling possible related disasters. This is crucial for robust development along the reaches of the streams emanating from these glaciers and lakes, and the river downstream. An NU spokesperson said, "Palaeo-studies aim to infer the extent of climate change in the geological past, helping to understand the current debate between human-induced and natural climate variability. " The scientific team aims to locate 'Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes' using advanced data and study the geomorphology, permafrost conditions, and slope instability in Arunachal Pradesh's Tawang region and North Sikkim's Lachung basin through separate research endeavours. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 5 Books Warren Buffett Wants You to Read In 2025 Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo The risk from sudden lake outbursts will be quantified through bathymetric surveys and 2D/3D flood modelling from select lakes in the Tawang region. Bathymetric surveys are specialised hydrographic surveys that map the depths and shapes of underwater terrain. The process provides detailed information about the underwater topography of a water body. The study aims to assess environmental risks, knowledge limitations, and ecosystem services associated with high-altitude lakes under current climate change conditions, while evaluating stored freshwater resources. "The results of this investigation/research will be shared with policymakers, planners, and developers for holistic development along the banks of the streams and rivers to mitigate the impact of devastation on account of a 'Glacial Lake Outburst Flood' event, thus saving the post-disaster haphazard rescues, insurances, and rebuilding of structures," said an NU spokesperson on Monday. The Union govt, through its ministry of earth sciences and ministry of environment, forest and climate change, has funded this initiative. Manasi Debnath from NU leads the project as principal investigator. Prof Jagadish K Patnaik, vice-chancellor of NU, said: "Nagaland University takes great pride in leading a critical research initiative aimed at developing a detailed and near-accurate inventory and stability assessment of high-altitude lakes in the Sikkim and Arunachal Himalayas. This multidisciplinary project focuses on understanding the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) potential of Tenbawa Lake and its linkages to Holocene Climate variations. " He further added: "Such scientific efforts are vital in addressing the increasing environmental vulnerabilities in the eastern Himalayas, enhancing our preparedness for natural hazards, and deepening our understanding of past climate dynamics. This project is a testament to Nagaland University's commitment to advancing frontier research for societal and ecological resilience in the Northeast region and beyond. " Manasi Debnath explained that her team is working to create a precise inventory of glacial lakes in the Eastern Himalaya (North Sikkim and Arunachal Himalaya) and evaluate the dangerous lakes in terms of breach potential and volume of discharge. "These would be carried out using high spatial resolution satellite images, and necessary field validation and measurement for the potential lakes," said Debnath. She added: "We propose to assess the glacial lakes of Arunachal and Sikkim, which have not been studied in detail for breach characteristics and area being impacted due to inundation at the time of GLOF, the length and reaches affected. Since the assessment of the Arunachal glacial lakes is at the headwaters of the Brahmaputra, any lake breach can be devastating in terms of the length of reach. In Sikkim, the ecological impacts under such circumstances are also being studied at the Lachung sub-basin level. Palaeo-hazard analysis at the Lachung sub-basin in the Sikkim Himalaya aids in comparing past and present GLOF frequencies at the basin scale."
The Hindu
4 days ago
- Climate
- The Hindu
How is India preparing against GLOF events?
The story so far: On July 8, Nepal experienced a catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) event which caused a flash flood along the Lende river flowing from Tibet to Nepal, and washed away a China-built friendship bridge. The bridge had serviced the 10-year old inland container port at Rasuwagadhi in Rasuwa (north of Kathmandu). The catastrophe is also reported to have made four Nepalese hydro-power plants along the Bhote Koshi river unusable, obliterating 8% of the country's power supply. With rising temperatures and subsequent glacial melt, the increased risk of GLOFs is threatening life and property in the higher Himalayas. Do trans-boundary watersheds diminish possibilities of early warning? While Chinese authorities have as yet refrained from confirming the cause, most Nepalese scientists and officials confirmed a GLOF event in Tibet, where a supra-glacial lake had burst, diminishing its surface area to 43 hectares from 63 hectares a day before. Nepalese officials were quoted lamenting in local media that neither did the Chinese authorities provide an early warning, nor was there an established system of doing so, despite a recent increase in supra-glacial lakes on the Tibetan side. Hours later, on the same day, another GLOF event occurred at a moraine-dammed lake in the northern part of the Mustang district in Nepal (north-west of Kathmandu). Two months before, two glacial lakes in the Humla district (far-north corner of Nepal) had witnessed significant GLOF events, while in 2024, a GLOF in the Solukhumbu district had destroyed the Thame village in Nepal, the base camp for Mount Everest climbers. The need for trans-boundary collaborations in setting up early warning protocols seems paramount, given that Nepal has lost many lives and much infrastructure in successive GLOF events. Similar events have impacted Nepal regularly, including the GLOF in Cirenma Co, a glacial lake, in Tibet in 1981, which released 20 mcm of water raising the Bhote Koshi river by 30 metres. Several decades later the same lake was reported to have rejuvenated and was rated high-risk. Other significant events include the Digi Tsho GLOF event in 1985, and the Tama Pokhari GLOF event in 1998. In response, Nepal has conducted risk mitigation works on the Imja Tsho and Tsho Rolpa lakes by drawing down water levels through artificial channels, a challenging task at heights above 5,000 m, and has further plans to target half a dozen more at-risk glacial lakes. What is the nature of GLOF risk for India? As per India's National Remote Sensing Centre, the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is home to 11 river basins and 28,000 glacial lakes. There are two prominent types of glacial lakes found in the IHR. The first are supraglacial lakes, formed in depressions on glaciers from meltwater, highly prone to melting in the summer months. The second are moraine-dammed lakes, formed by meltwater at the toe/snout of a glacier, dammed by loose debris or ice-cores, making them prone to sudden failure. Almost two-thirds of GLOF events are triggered by ice avalanches or landslides, and the remaining due to excessive meltwater pressure on weak moraine dams and earthquakes. With 2023 and 2024 being the hottest years on Earth, extreme temperatures in smaller geographies have been higher, thereby causing more glacial melt in certain pockets, making some glacial lakes highly risky. In addition to rising heat, is the problem of scale. 7,500 glacial lakes are situated in India, with most above 4,500 metres in height, hence approachable for surveys only during a short window in the summer season. There are almost no weather and water monitoring stations in these regions due to inaccessibility, lack of sustainability and cost, leaving this growing risk largely unmapped. The only credible means is measuring growth in surface area via remote sensing over periods of time, a measure which is post-facto and provides little by way of risk assessment or early warning of any sort. Additionally, vulnerability of the immediate geography is critical to determining the exact nature of risk. This includes damage to homesteads, livelihoods, biodiversity, bridges and hydro-power projects along rivers that relay GLOFs downstream. The South Lhonak GLOF in 2023 in Sikkim wiped out the $2 billion and 1250 MW generating Chungthang dam and also intensified the flash flood causing massive silting downstream. Since then, the Central Water Commission has found that the Teesta riverbed has risen several metres, significantly reducing its carrying capacity and increasing the chances of its banks overflowing. Besides the Sikkim GLOF, one of the most damaging events in recent times was the Chorabari GLOF in 2013, which turned into a cascading disaster accompanied by cloudbursts and landslides, known as the Kedarnath catastrophe — causing hundreds of casualties and billions in infrastructure damage. What can India do to mitigate GLOF risk? The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has markedly accelerated its efforts to manage these increasing risks. With respect to mitigation, it has initiated a proactive shift from mere post-disaster response to risk reduction through its Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction (CoDRR). This national coordination effort brought together related central scientific agencies, academic and research institutions, and States/UTs to study, monitor, warn, and mitigate GLOF risk in India. As a result, the central government finalised its first national programme of $20 million, prioritising 56 at-risk glacial lakes. The list has now been expanded to 195, categorised into four risk levels. Following the expected award of the 16th Finance Commission for the period FY2027 to FY2031, there are plans to scale up this programme, significantly. Objectives of this programme are five-fold — hazard assessment of each at-risk lake; installing Automated Weather and Water Stations (AWWS); establishing Early Warning Systems (EWS) downstream; mitigating risk by drawing down water levels or building flow through retention structures; and community engagement, an essential element of risk reduction. Under the programme, States where glacial lakes are resident were encouraged to take the lead in sending scientific expeditions to 40 of the highest at-risk lakes in the summer of 2024. One of the critical parameters in the exercise was to encourage Indian technology, systems and scientific expertise, one of which is the science of SAR interferometry — the art of analysing micro-changes in slope stability (upto a centimetre) using remote sensing satellite imagery as high as 10-metre resolution. The near-absence of usage of this scientific method to predict GLOFs and landslides is an identified gap that needs to be plugged through this programme. Another significant gap is the absence of well-resourced Indian foundations and innovative technology providers in the business of risk reduction in the Himalayan cryosphere. What is status of mitigation efforts? Several multi-institutional expeditions returned with success stories, across J&K, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh with a couple of light-hearted tales for their archives. One such expedition lost its way in bad weather, and another had to leave behind an expedition member in the village as security so that the rest of the expedition did not pollute the sacred lake by entering its holy waters. These episodes were evidence of the critical need for community engagement, to integrate the local community in expeditions and the need to convince residents of the credibility and sincerity of the exercise. The successful expeditions conducted bathymetry to assess the volume of water in the lakes; used Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) to understand the existence of ice-cores under moraine-dams, a key reason for dam breaks; and performed UAV and slope surveys of surrounding land/ice forms. Monitoring stations were installed at two lakes in Sikkim, which relay weather and water data every 10 minutes, with a daily dose of pictures of both ends of the lake and its shoreline. In subsequent summers, States will be installing more such systems, thereby overcoming an oft-repeated data-gap in the IHR cryosphere. In the absence of automated early warning mechanisms, Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) deployments in high reaches have been oriented towards the role of manual early warning. After the monsoon this year, States/UTs are gearing up for another round of expeditions. Safi Ahsan Rizvi is an IPS officer and adviser to the NDMA.
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First Post
7 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Weaponing water: China's hydropower push poses grave risk to India
The construction of the dams could bring devastation not only to the Pemakoe area in Tibet but also to Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bangladesh downstream read more On the morning of July 19, inaugurating the first phase of the Yarlung Hydropower Project, Li Qiang, a member of the all-powerful Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China and Premier (Prime Minister) of the State Council (Cabinet), stated that it was to be 'large in size, long in cycle, and far-reaching in impact.' He added it can be called the 'project of a century'. The project may not become the 'project of the century' for the electricity it could generate, but for the amount of environmental devastation it will produce. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD When I read the news the next morning, the floods in Sikkim on the night of October 4, 2023, came immediately to mind. That day, a glacial lake in North Sikkim burst without warning, unleashing a deadly torrent down the Teesta River valley. The magazine Down to Earth reported: 'The disaster, triggered by climate-driven glacial melt, left a trail of devastation and renewed alarm over the growing threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in the eastern Himalayas.' The environmental publication added: 'Glaciers and glacial lakes serve as one of the most important water resources for downstream communities, but over the years, the increase in the number and area of glacial lakes has also become a major threat to lives and infrastructure in downstream areas in the form of GLOF events.' How will China avoid such man-made disasters caused by mega development in the Yarlung Tsangpo basin, a far more fragile area? The Launch of the Mega Project According to Xinhua News Agency, the opening ceremony of the project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo (YT) was held in Milin County of Nyingchi City in today's Tibet Autonomous Region. The Xinhua release said: 'At the dam site of the Milin Hydropower Station (probably near Pai Township), Li Qiang inspected the construction site and the equipment. He listened to the report on the development of hydropower projects as well as the scientific and technological research undertaken.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A few days earlier, a new industrial conglomerate, the China Yajiang Group, was created in Beijing for the purpose of building the five dams. Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau and Vice-Premier of the State Council, unveiled the company's by-laws: 'From a strategic and overall perspective, it is an important measure to thoroughly implement the overall national security concept, the new energy security strategy and the Party's Tibet governance strategy in the new era,' he affirmed. From Nine to Five Hydropower Stations In December 2020, Beijing had announced that a survey would be conducted to select the route and the characteristics of the hydropower plants (HPPs) on the mighty Yarlung Tsangpo, with the diversion starting a few kilometres from Pai Township; it was then to consist of one tunnel (about 30 km long) and 9 HPPs. According to the latest Xinhua release, the project in this extremely geologically fragile area will now consist of a cascade of five run-of-the-river HPPs, with water being mostly diverted via tunnels; the design has therefore been simplified. The total investment is estimated at about $167.8 billion. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Mega Earthquake On August 15, 1950, the Assam-Tibet Earthquake of a magnitude 8.7 on the Richter scale struck Southern Tibet as well as today's Anjaw district of Arunachal Pradesh. The Dalai Lama, who was 15 at the time, noted in his memoirs: 'It was like an artillery barrage—which is what we assumed to be the cause of both the tremors and the noise: a test of some sort being carried out by the Tibetan army… Some people reported seeing a strange red glow in the skies in the direction from which the noise came…' The area is not very far from the Great Bend (and Upper Siang) where the Yarlung Tsangpo project is to be built; in 1950, the earthquake changed the course of the river. Let us not forget that there is high seismicity across the entire region. Over the years, different avatars of the HPP project were rejected by Chinese scientists, but some very powerful politicians are pushing for it. Though the People's Liberation Army (PLA) was not represented at the opening ceremony in Pai, it will probably be involved later simply because the dams are close to the Indian border—and it involves a lot of money. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD An Old Plan A few years ago, I came across a letter addressed by the Deputy Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs to Apa Pant, the Political Officer in Sikkim. It quoted a tour report of the Secretary General, Relief Committee for Tibetans; the report dated October 1960 shows that in the 1950s, the Chinese were already planning to use the hydroelectric potential of the Brahmaputra. Apa Pant was informed: 'During the course of the talk, the Dalai Lama [probably in Mussoorie] also informed that he had reports that Chinese are planning to build high dams across Brahmaputra and Indus group of rivers in the Tibetan region. He told that, as a matter of fact, the Chinese had those schemes in view ever since they came to Tibet in 1951. He wondered how far such projects undertaken unilaterally would be in the interest of India and when the projects took shape how the Government of India would view the situation.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Political Officer was further told by South Block: 'We have received no information so far about any proposal of the Chinese Government to construct dams across the Indus and the Brahmaputra before the rivers leave Tibet. The correct international practice in such matters is that building of dams, reservoirs, etc. by the upper riparian must not cause material injury to the interests of the lower riparian. Since, however, the information contained in the above extract is rather vague, we cannot make representations to the Chinese. …We do know that there is a great fall in the Brahmaputra just before it enters Indian territory. …This fall has a great potential for power and irrigation (?). It will, of course, require huge resources to make anything out of it and it will certainly take a long time.' The Deputy Secretary concluded: 'The necessity of being alert in this matter can hardly be over-emphasised.' The matter was of course quickly forgotten in Delhi, but not in Beijing. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Area's Characteristics The main characteristic of the Pemakoe area, known as the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, is the difference of altitude between the beginning of the Bend at Pai, located at 2,900 metres above sea level, and an altitude of 600 metres at the end, 60 km away as the crow flies, where the river enters India and becomes the Siang. This creates a hydro-potential of 60,000 megawatts, which China has decided to utilize despite the technological, environmental, and political, seemingly insurmountable difficulties. After Li Qiang announced that the construction had officially started, the secretary-general of the State Council (China's Cabinet), Wu Zhenglong, presided over the opening ceremony; he explained that the project will primarily deliver electricity for external consumption while considering Tibet's local needs. The evacuation of the power produced will certainly remain a major technical issue, though China has made a great deal of progress in this domain. According to previous plans, the project ends near Baibeng (also known as Drepung), a few kilometres north of the Indian border. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD It should be noted that the route of the diversion will run close to the Doshung-la tunnel and the new G219 which links Xinjiang to Mainland China along Tibet's southern borders; the opening of the road between Pai and Metok a couple of years ago will greatly facilitate the HPPs' construction. In the 1950s, the G219 was known as the Aksai Chin road (crossing over India's territory in Ladakh). The Lower Riparians' Major Worries For India and Bangladesh, the downstream neighbours, the environment and the high seismicity of the area are major worries. The construction of the dams could bring devastation not only to the Pemakoe area in Tibet but also to Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Bangladesh downstream. Li Qiang also spoke of the resettlement of the local population. He said: 'We must do a good job in the resettlement of immigrants [does he refer to the local tribes?] and better combine the promotion of project construction with the promotion of employment and income growth for local people. …We must build the Hydropower Project into a major landmark project in the new era.' China presently has a poor reputation in terms of population resettlement. The recent announcement of the project, which remained for years in the drawers of the Communist government in Beijing, is probably timed to give a warning to India, which recently put the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan in abeyance, following terrorist attacks in Kashmir. Being the upper riparian state, China wants to show India who is the greatest Asian state; but even the most powerful state has no control over the changing climate. The writer is Distinguished Fellow, Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (Delhi). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
India.com
24-07-2025
- Climate
- India.com
India could trigger floods in Pakistan, weather department's alert create panic in Islamabad due to...; Here's what is happening
India could trigger floods in Pakistan, weather department's alert create panic in Islamabad due to...; Here's what is happening Tensions between India and Pakistan over river water sharing have flared up again. On Tuesday, Pakistan's weather department (PMD) warned that if India releases too much water from rivers that flow into Pakistan, it could lead to flooding in many areas. The warning comes at a time when heavy monsoon rains are expected, along with the risk of sudden floods caused by melting glaciers, known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). More rains on the horizon Khan noted that the current monsoon spell is likely to last until Friday, July 25, followed by another round of heavy showers towards the end of the month. This continued rainfall, especially in the northern regions, could raise water levels dangerously and increase the flood threat. 'Rain is steadily raising dam levels, and though things are under control, the danger hasn't passed. A new weather system is expected by month's end, and it may bring intense rainfall,' he warned. Melting glaciers, global crisis, Pakistan pays the price Despite contributing minimally to global carbon emissions, Pakistan remains one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Khan pointed to rising climate unpredictability, cloudbursts, and rapid glacier melt as growing threats. 'Pakistan's share in global pollution is negligible, yet we are among the worst-hit by climate shifts,' he said. 'Unusually heavy rainfall and rapidly melting glaciers are creating dangerous and unpredictable conditions.' With already strained resources and a fragile climate, Pakistan now braces for a critical few weeks—caught between nature's fury and geopolitical anxieties.
Gulf Today
15-07-2025
- Science
- Gulf Today
Expanding and melting glacial lakes pose huge dangers
Glacial lakes and water bodies across the Himalayan region have expanded by 11% since 2011, according to a report by India's Central Water Commission (CWC). The report, highlighted in an India Today (IT) analysis, underscores the growing risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) as climate change accelerates glacial melting and lake expansion largely driven by global warming. Another IT report presents startling facts that melting glaciers are creating huge lakes in Himalayas and could burst anytime. This is according to satellite analyses by Suhora Technologies, which monitors 33,000 lakes across the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra basins, confirm accelerated growth in high-altitude lakes due to rapid glacier melt. Studies reveal that glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region – home to the world's largest ice reserves outside the poles – have grown by over 10% in area since 1990, with the Ganga basin witnessing a 22% surge in lake numbers. Rising global temperatures have pushed lake formation to elevations above 5500 meters, reflecting glacier retreat to higher altitudes. Over 76% of Himalayan glacial lakes are end-moraine-dammed, a fragile structure prone to breaches. A new study with ETH Zurich, published in the journal Science, finds that if global warming exceeds the Paris Climate Agreement targets, the non-polar glacier mass will diminish significantly, as per an ETHZ press release. Even if global temperatures were stabilised at today's level of 1.2°C, an estimated 39 per cent of global glacier mass would still be lost compared to 2020 levels – contributing over 10 centimetres to global sea-level rise. The study states that, however, if warming is limited to 1.5°C, at least 54% could be preserved — more than twice as much ice as in a 2.7°C scenario. Even if the rise in global temperatures were to stabilise at its current level, it is projected that the world would lose around 40% of its glaciers. If global warming can be limited to +1.5 °C, it may be possible to preserve twice as much glacier ice (54%) as in a scenario where temperatures rise by +2.7 °C (only 24%). For the study, an international team of 21 scientists from 10 countries used eight glacier models to calculate the potential ice loss from more than 200,000 glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica. The team evaluated a wide range of global temperature scenarios, assuming that temperatures would remain constant for thousands of years in each scenario. In all scenarios, the glaciers lose mass rapidly over decades and then continue to melt at a slower pace for centuries – even without additional warming. This long-term response means glaciers will continue to feel the effects of today's heat far into the future, gradually retreating to higher altitudes before reaching a new equilibrium. Melting glaciers reveal the reality of global warming, the study says. And, beyond contributing to sea-level rise, glacier loss has far-reaching consequences. It threatens freshwater availability, increases the risk of glacier-related hazards such as floods and landslides, and jeopardizes glacier-fed tourism economies. These cascading impacts will be felt across regions and generations. While other studies have limited to the year 2100 estimate that around 20% of today's glacier mass will be lost regardless of future warming, the new study reveals that nearly twice as much would vanish under present-day conditions when multi-centennial timescales are considered. The IT analysis points out that in India the CWC began monitoring glacial lakes in 2009 to enhance assessment and preparedness strategies. In its 2011 inventory, the CWC recorded 2028 glacial lakes and water bodies larger than 10 hectares. Since then, using advanced tools like remote sensing, satellite imagery, and cloud platforms, the CWC has prioritised monitoring 902 critical water bodies. This latest report from September 2024 reveals a 10.81% area increase in 544 glacial lakes and 358 water bodies over the past decade. While China shows the highest rate, similar trends in India show that 67 lakes have grown significantly. The analysis also underscores recent data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) highlights the growing threat of GLOFs. ICIMOD's analysis shows that over 70% of the 700 recorded GLOFs events since 1833 have occurred in the last 50 years, illustrating the accelerating impact of climate change on glacial stability.
