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Weaponing water: China's hydropower push poses grave risk to India
On the morning of July 19, inaugurating the first phase of the Yarlung Hydropower Project, Li Qiang, a member of the all-powerful Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China and Premier (Prime Minister) of the State Council (Cabinet), stated that it was to be 'large in size, long in cycle, and far-reaching in impact.' He added it can be called the 'project of a century'.
The project may not become the 'project of the century' for the electricity it could generate, but for the amount of environmental devastation it will produce.
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When I read the news the next morning, the floods in Sikkim on the night of October 4, 2023, came immediately to mind. That day, a glacial lake in North Sikkim burst without warning, unleashing a deadly torrent down the Teesta River valley. The magazine Down to Earth reported: 'The disaster, triggered by climate-driven glacial melt, left a trail of devastation and renewed alarm over the growing threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in the eastern Himalayas.'
The environmental publication added: 'Glaciers and glacial lakes serve as one of the most important water resources for downstream communities, but over the years, the increase in the number and area of glacial lakes has also become a major threat to lives and infrastructure in downstream areas in the form of GLOF events.'
How will China avoid such man-made disasters caused by mega development in the Yarlung Tsangpo basin, a far more fragile area?
The Launch of the Mega Project
According to Xinhua News Agency, the opening ceremony of the project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo (YT) was held in Milin County of Nyingchi City in today's Tibet Autonomous Region.
The Xinhua release said: 'At the dam site of the Milin Hydropower Station (probably near Pai Township), Li Qiang inspected the construction site and the equipment. He listened to the report on the development of hydropower projects as well as the scientific and technological research undertaken.'
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A few days earlier, a new industrial conglomerate, the China Yajiang Group, was created in Beijing for the purpose of building the five dams. Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau and Vice-Premier of the State Council, unveiled the company's by-laws: 'From a strategic and overall perspective, it is an important measure to thoroughly implement the overall national security concept, the new energy security strategy and the Party's Tibet governance strategy in the new era,' he affirmed.
From Nine to Five Hydropower Stations
In December 2020, Beijing had announced that a survey would be conducted to select the route and the characteristics of the hydropower plants (HPPs) on the mighty Yarlung Tsangpo, with the diversion starting a few kilometres from Pai Township; it was then to consist of one tunnel (about 30 km long) and 9 HPPs.
According to the latest Xinhua release, the project in this extremely geologically fragile area will now consist of a cascade of five run-of-the-river HPPs, with water being mostly diverted via tunnels; the design has therefore been simplified. The total investment is estimated at about $167.8 billion.
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The Mega Earthquake
On August 15, 1950, the Assam-Tibet Earthquake of a magnitude 8.7 on the Richter scale struck Southern Tibet as well as today's Anjaw district of Arunachal Pradesh. The Dalai Lama, who was 15 at the time, noted in his memoirs: 'It was like an artillery barrage—which is what we assumed to be the cause of both the tremors and the noise: a test of some sort being carried out by the Tibetan army… Some people reported seeing a strange red glow in the skies in the direction from which the noise came…'
The area is not very far from the Great Bend (and Upper Siang) where the Yarlung Tsangpo project is to be built; in 1950, the earthquake changed the course of the river. Let us not forget that there is high seismicity across the entire region. Over the years, different avatars of the HPP project were rejected by Chinese scientists, but some very powerful politicians are pushing for it. Though the People's Liberation Army (PLA) was not represented at the opening ceremony in Pai, it will probably be involved later simply because the dams are close to the Indian border—and it involves a lot of money.
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An Old Plan
A few years ago, I came across a letter addressed by the Deputy Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs to Apa Pant, the Political Officer in Sikkim. It quoted a tour report of the Secretary General, Relief Committee for Tibetans; the report dated October 1960 shows that in the 1950s, the Chinese were already planning to use the hydroelectric potential of the Brahmaputra.
Apa Pant was informed: 'During the course of the talk, the Dalai Lama [probably in Mussoorie] also informed that he had reports that Chinese are planning to build high dams across Brahmaputra and Indus group of rivers in the Tibetan region. He told that, as a matter of fact, the Chinese had those schemes in view ever since they came to Tibet in 1951. He wondered how far such projects undertaken unilaterally would be in the interest of India and when the projects took shape how the Government of India would view the situation.'
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The Political Officer was further told by South Block: 'We have received no information so far about any proposal of the Chinese Government to construct dams across the Indus and the Brahmaputra before the rivers leave Tibet. The correct international practice in such matters is that building of dams, reservoirs, etc. by the upper riparian must not cause material injury to the interests of the lower riparian. Since, however, the information contained in the above extract is rather vague, we cannot make representations to the Chinese. …We do know that there is a great fall in the Brahmaputra just before it enters Indian territory. …This fall has a great potential for power and irrigation (?). It will, of course, require huge resources to make anything out of it and it will certainly take a long time.'
The Deputy Secretary concluded: 'The necessity of being alert in this matter can hardly be over-emphasised.' The matter was of course quickly forgotten in Delhi, but not in Beijing.
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The Area's Characteristics
The main characteristic of the Pemakoe area, known as the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, is the difference of altitude between the beginning of the Bend at Pai, located at 2,900 metres above sea level, and an altitude of 600 metres at the end, 60 km away as the crow flies, where the river enters India and becomes the Siang. This creates a hydro-potential of 60,000 megawatts, which China has decided to utilize despite the technological, environmental, and political, seemingly insurmountable difficulties.
After Li Qiang announced that the construction had officially started, the secretary-general of the State Council (China's Cabinet), Wu Zhenglong, presided over the opening ceremony; he explained that the project will primarily deliver electricity for external consumption while considering Tibet's local needs.
The evacuation of the power produced will certainly remain a major technical issue, though China has made a great deal of progress in this domain.
According to previous plans, the project ends near Baibeng (also known as Drepung), a few kilometres north of the Indian border.
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It should be noted that the route of the diversion will run close to the Doshung-la tunnel and the new G219 which links Xinjiang to Mainland China along Tibet's southern borders; the opening of the road between Pai and Metok a couple of years ago will greatly facilitate the HPPs' construction.
In the 1950s, the G219 was known as the Aksai Chin road (crossing over India's territory in Ladakh).
The Lower Riparians' Major Worries
For India and Bangladesh, the downstream neighbours, the environment and the high seismicity of the area are major worries.
The construction of the dams could bring devastation not only to the Pemakoe area in Tibet but also to Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Bangladesh downstream.
Li Qiang also spoke of the resettlement of the local population. He said: 'We must do a good job in the resettlement of immigrants [does he refer to the local tribes?] and better combine the promotion of project construction with the promotion of employment and income growth for local people. …We must build the Hydropower Project into a major landmark project in the new era.' China presently has a poor reputation in terms of population resettlement.
The recent announcement of the project, which remained for years in the drawers of the Communist government in Beijing, is probably timed to give a warning to India, which recently put the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan in abeyance, following terrorist attacks in Kashmir. Being the upper riparian state, China wants to show India who is the greatest Asian state; but even the most powerful state has no control over the changing climate.
The writer is Distinguished Fellow, Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (Delhi). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
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