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Gen Zers Convinced They Can Predict a Recession—It's Not Going Well
Gen Zers Convinced They Can Predict a Recession—It's Not Going Well

Newsweek

time11 hours ago

  • Business
  • Newsweek

Gen Zers Convinced They Can Predict a Recession—It's Not Going Well

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. We have been long advised not to believe everything that we see online, but when creators start citing Gwyneth Paltrow's carb cravings or the rise of Pilates chic as signs of a looming financial crash, the question becomes unavoidable: do any of these so-called "recession indicators" hold real validity? Across TikTok, Instagram and YouTube, Gen Zers and younger millennials have been spotlighting the curious return of several late 2000s' and early 2010s' cultural motifs—some subtle, others screamingly obvious. Platinum blonde hair with visible dark roots; the reemergence of "recession pop" music; the rising popularity of "skinny chic," not long ago dubbed problematic: the list goes on, including, unmanicured nails, mustache-embossed crockery and even the rerelease of Coca-Cola's "Share a Coke" campaign. The implication? A return to recession-era culture suggests a return to recession itself. Some of these social media-driven indicators are grounded in economic behaviors we have seen before—people cutting spending and dressing to appeal to those in positions of power. But others are, at best, psychological signposts and, at worst, internet inside-jokes. "Pop culture 'recession indicators' are entertaining—but they are not economic science," Louis Carter, founder and CEO of Best Practice Institute, told Newsweek. "These trends are reflections of mood, and lack of human logic—not causes of market movement." In conversations with Newsweek, content creators, analysts, and economists unpacked the cultural, financial, and political narratives behind several trending indicators—and whether anything can actually be predicted from them. 'Recession Blonde' Leah Holm, a marketing manager and influencer known as @ladyleahmarie, recently gained viral attention for her breakdown of "recession blonde"—a style featuring platinum blonde hair with grown-out roots, seen in the late 2000s and very early 2010s and making a comeback today. "This trend was the direct result of the economical state of the world at the time," Holm said in a TikTok video. "Prices went up, people had less money … The girls who would previously get their roots touched up every 4 to 6 weeks didn't have money to do so, so they let them grow out, and this became a trend." Holm told Newsweek that fashion reflects cultural and economic conditions—and, right now, we are in what she calls a "recession-core" moment. "Fashion has always mirrored the times we are living in—economically, politically, and emotionally," Holm said. "We are seeing a shift toward timeless, minimalist styles in response to inflation, job insecurity, and global uncertainty. "Think muted colors, clean silhouettes, and an emphasis on quality over quantity." Holm has spotted a marked rise in aesthetics labeled "old money" or "quiet luxury," alongside emerging consumer trends such as "capsule wardrobes," and creators engaging in "low-buy years" or "underconsumption"—all of which are geared toward people spending less. 'Recession Pop' For Texas-based content creator Xavier Wilson (@ 27, the rise of "recession" talk online is less about market indicators and more about cultural anxiety playing out on loop. His videos focus on class divides and the social-mobility traps that Gen Z face. "I think the idea of a recession online has become an anxious long-running joke and trend," Wilson told Newsweek. "TikTok rose to popularity during the pandemic, when recession fears were high and they never really went away. "That created an ongoing wave of trends that anyone could participate in, everyone can relate to, and that sparks enough conversation to stay active in the algorithm." Wilson, who was featured in a Gen Z report presented at the 2023 World Economic Forum, said that, for younger generations, the recession is more cultural than fiscal. It is gamified, meme-ified and shared endlessly—but also rooted in real anxiety. "While our parents have experienced recessions, it is not 'real' for Gen Z in the same way," Wilson said. "It is a bit of a game—'Is this indicator a real one?' Will this finally bring the recession we've been talking about for years?" Online, "recession pop" has become a nostalgic shorthand for the glossy, synth-heavy hits of the late 2000s and early 2010s—think Kesha, early Katy Perry, and The Black Eyed Peas—resurfacing across playlists and TikTok montages. The sound evokes a time when escapism ruled the charts, and its return feels eerily timely to some. Ozempic, Pilates, and Conservative Lifestyles On Instagram, MaryBeth Monaco-Vavrik (@ ignited discussion with her viral video exploring the connections between fitness aesthetics, cultural shifts and what that can suggest about the economy. "There is a strong pattern of fitness ideals shifting based on political and cultural values," Monaco-Vavrik, a certified barre instructor based in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek. "Pilates aligns with the 'clean girl' aesthetic and broader conservative shift we are seeing." From left: A screenshot of Nicole Richie sporting "recession blonde" hair from a TikTok video by @ladyleahmarie; and a stock image of a road sign reading "recession ahead." From left: A screenshot of Nicole Richie sporting "recession blonde" hair from a TikTok video by @ladyleahmarie; and a stock image of a road sign reading "recession ahead." @ladyleahmarie / Getty Images The Ozempic craze and resurgence of ultra-thinness are part of that same ideological fabric. "The sanitized, exclusionary aesthetic of Pilates reflects certain values: control, conformity, proximity to whiteness and wealth," the 24-year-old added. The Hemline Index Coca-Cola's revival of its "Share a Coke" campaign and the popularity of late 2000s and early 2010s fashion staples—large handbags, indie sleaze styling, heels and peplum detailing—have all been flagged online as evidence of a looming economic downturn. One creator, @ shared in a TikTok video that they had used data to dissect which trends are actually indicative of a looming recession. They concluded that mini skirts were the "most confident predictor of consumer confidence in the economy," later elaborating that the garments becoming trendier suggests that consumer confidence in the economy has dropped. The idea that skirt length can be representative of economic change is called the hemline index. The creator added that indie sleaze styling, big bags, maxi skirts and blazers becoming trendier is also indicative of a looming recession, among other talked-about nods to the economy like lipstick theory. @ These are just the recession indicators that I have been hearing about a lot — but please let me know if you have any other indicators that you would like to test. A bit more on the analysis: I didn't want to just report on some growth metrics (I saw a financial advice account report that maxi skirts were trending in the google data this past month which means we are going into a recession. Like, it's spring, so ofc they are?), or run a bunch of regressions between consumer confidence in the economy (CCI) and a single search term for each recession indicator. So! I used structural equation modelling, which allows me to combine multiple items and search terms into a single variable. For example, I have included the volume of people looking for hobo bags, oversized bags, tote bags, balenciaga city bags, louis vuitton neverful, etc., within my 'big bag theory' variable. And for indie sleaze, I have a bunch of trends associated with it within its latent variable, such as: cheetah, leopard, fur, skinny jeans, disco pants, etc. When you are building this model, you have to ensure that al of these variables are trending together and not just making a big mess. Here, you have to take time to evaluate the the model fit and factor loadings for each item before it could be included in the latent variable and therefore in the regression. Hope that makes sense! Might do a post or another video explaining all of this in-depth! Might include the R code if someone is interested… ? In the end, mini skirts and blazers had a strong negative relationship with CCI — suggesting that interest in these items can be signals that the economy is doing poorly. Big bags, lipstick, maxi skirts, and indie sleaze had a moderate negative relationship, and then peplums and high heels had no relationship. I know someone in the comments will say that my R2 values are way too low — and I totally thought the same thing. However, after looking at expected R2 values for cultural data and real world signals versus experimental data — these values are pretty good. (Feel free to argue with me tho, I'm not an expert.) (Oh and this is just US data btw.) ♬ original sound - Style Analytics Destiny Chatman, a consumer expert at is not certain things are quite so simple. "Things that were popular in the 2010s coming back in 2025 do signal that we are headed toward a recession because 2007 to 2009 was the last Great Recession in America," she said. "However, everything old does become new again, and people should take these 'recession indicators' with a grain of salt." Kristen Smirnov, a professor at Whittier College, emphasized the cyclical nature of aesthetics. "Pop culture and fashion trends are naturally cyclical," Smirnov told Newsweek. "Part of how we signal social capital is by showing we are in tune with what is current, and 'what is current' often swings away from whatever came just before." Possibly the most-mocked "indicator" of all has been actress and wellness mogul Gwyneth Paltrow announcing she will start eating carbs again—an abrupt dietary change for someone long associated with extreme wellness trends. Online, it was quickly labeled a "recession-coded" move, but Hila Harary, a trend forecaster at Tectonic Shift, sees it differently. "Gwyneth Paltrow's diet is not being revived—it is being rejected," Harary told Newsweek. "People are choosing joy over control … To enjoy the pasta, not obsess over celery juice." Harary noted that this cultural nostalgia for a rose-tinted past is often mistaken for economic nostalgia. "Nostalgia shows up elsewhere—in the resurgence of the early 2010s trends, for example," she added. "But that is about emotional security. "When the present feels unstable, people gravitate toward eras that felt simpler, it is comfort, not forecasting." Harary pointed to broader movements such as "Back to the Roots," encompassing gardening, sustainability, and natural beauty. "Yes, economic pressure can amplify these shifts, but the root cause is values, not just cost," she said. "The 'trad wife' trend fits here, too—a return to traditional, more conservative ways of living. "It is not caused by a recession, but it can have recession-like effects on household economics." Financial experts agreed that the meme economy and actual economy have little overlap. "Cultural clues are fun to watch, but real financial strategy relies on indicators like the inverted yield curve, jobless claims and earnings data," Steven Rogé, chief investment officer of R.W. Rogé & Company, Inc., told Newsweek. "These meme-worthy signals reflect consumer concerns, not economic truth, and even amplify anxiety, potentially influencing real spending." Certified financial planner Prudence Zhu agreed that trends like diet shifts and aesthetic preferences offer us an insight into consumer psychology—but not economics. "They are more of a lighthearted way for people to engage with economic discussions rather than reliable recession indicators," Zhu told Newsweek. "It is important to focus on economic data such as GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation." While the indicators may be satirical, the anxiety behind them appears to be real. The latest Bank of Montreal (BMO) Real Financial Progress Index revealed that 67 percent of Americans say their concerns about a recession have increased, with Gen Z concern jumping 18 points in one month; 65 percent of millennials also reported an increased economic concern. But experts say that what we are seeing online is less an indication of recession and more a cultural mood board drawn from collective uncertainty. "These trends aren't forecasting a recession," Harary said. "They reflect how we are processing instability."

Brad Pitt reveals his pre-Gwyneth Paltrow diet that would have left the Goop guru disgusted
Brad Pitt reveals his pre-Gwyneth Paltrow diet that would have left the Goop guru disgusted

Daily Mail​

time3 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • Daily Mail​

Brad Pitt reveals his pre-Gwyneth Paltrow diet that would have left the Goop guru disgusted

Brad Pitt has revealed his pre-Gwyneth Paltrow diet that would have revolted his wellness advocate ex. Pitt, 61, dated the future Goop CEO, 52, for three years after meeting on the set of the 1995 thriller Se7en, but just before landing the role, survived off a rather unusual eating plan that definitely would not have flown with Paltrow. Speaking on Dax Shepard's Armchair Expert podcast, Pitt described this period as 'the most unhealthy time'. At the time, Pitt was feeling adrift in his career following several disappointing jobs, and spent the summer of 1994 dating a woman with a passion for reptiles and consuming a 'bong load,' 'four Coca-Colas on ice' and no actual food. 'I would wake up... I would get a bong load, I would have four Coca-Colas on ice. No food,' Pitt told Dax. 'This particular summer, and I watched the O.J. trial... and trying to figure out, "What do I do next? What do I do next?"' he said. That all changed once the script for the David Fincher film Se7en came across his desk. 'And then I read this script, my dear friend and manager and, basically my sister now, Cynthia, sends it over,' he explained. 'She says, "You've got to read this." I read the first seven pages, I call her up, I go, "Are you kidding me? Like, the cliché old cop wants out, the young cop comes in, he's looking at his trophies? His high school football trophies?" She goes, "Just finish it." And then I go meet Finch... he was just talking about films like I'd never heard anyone speak about film,' he said. 'I just got the jones back,' Brad added. 'Finding that thing kind of, it just reinvigorated what I wanted out of this thing, what's possible.' The role not only brought the zest back into Brad's career, but it also introduced him to his then-girlfriend Gwyneth - who certainly would not have approved of his summer diet. Since their split, Gwyneth has founded the wellness and lifestyle brand Goop, where consumers can shop for supplements and find green juice recipes. She also has made headlines for her own diet - which in recent years involved drinking coffee for breakfast, bone broth for lunch and vegetables for dinner. Until recently, Gwyneth was a strict adherent of the Paleo diet, an eating regimen which advocates for eating meat, vegetables, nuts and limited fruit, as well as excluding grains, legumes, dairy, salt, and refined sugar. Thought recently the Shakespeare In Love actress has changed her tune on that particular diet, admitting that she is now 'a little bit sick of it'. 'I'm getting back into eating sourdough bread, cheese – there I said it. A little pasta after being strict with it for so long,' she said on her Goop podcast. Gwyneth and Brad dated for three years after they met on the set of the thriller Se7en. They got engaged in December 1996 when Gwyneth was just 24 years old and parted ways a few months later. Looking back on the relationship, Gwyneth previously admitted she felt it didn't work out because she was too young. Speaking on The Howard Stern Show in 2015, she said: 'I think I was a kid and I wasn't ready. He was too good for me.' 'I honestly do think I was too young and didn't know what I was doing.' Brad would go on to marry and split from both Jennifer Aniston and Angelina Jolie, while Gwyneth tied the knot and welcomed two children with Coldplay singer Chris Martin. They infamously revealed their 'conscious uncoupling' in 2014 before officially divorcing. Gwyneth is now married to producer Brad Falchuk. Despite their split, Gwyneth and Brad have kept in touch over the years. The former flames reunited in June 2022 when Gwyneth interviewed Brad for her website about his involvement in one of her Goop products. The pair expressed how happy they were to be friends with Brad telling her: 'I do love you,' to which she replied: 'I love you so much'.

The 10 Best Tools for Total Body Care
The 10 Best Tools for Total Body Care

Elle

time3 days ago

  • Health
  • Elle

The 10 Best Tools for Total Body Care

'Skin care' only used to include the skin from our neck up; for a long time, we neglected our body in favor of our face. But that's quickly changing. Since 2022, data from Google Analytics and Meta shows a 1,025 percent increase in searches for 'body care,' according to a recent report from Cosmetics Design . As body care has gotten more popular, so have body care devices. These tools range from health trackers to sauna blankets to yes, even humidifiers. For this year's Tools and Treatments Awards, 28 ELLE staff members gamely tested body care gadgets that ran the gamut. We had staffers wear an Oura ring 24/7 for over a month to learn its full capabilities. We asked them to put an air purifier in their living room and see how it affected their allergies. We even requested that they zap the hair on their legs with an at-home IPL device to see how it measured up to in-office hair removal. Ahead, you'll find the 10 best-of-the-best body care devices on the market, with commentary from ELLE editors who tested each one. Skip Section Best Sauna Blanket Celebrities like Gwyneth Paltrow and Jennifer Aniston swear by infrared saunas. They tout plenty of benefits, like increased circulation, muscle relief, stress alleviation, and more. This blanket allows you to enjoy all of the benefits of an infrared sauna from the comfort of your home. Our tester noted that the blanket was relaxing and even helped ease soreness following rigorous workouts. Set up was quick (though she recommends laying down a yoga mat and a towel inside for comfort), and the mat also folded up nicely for easy storage. Best Electric Toothbrush This toothbrush has over 10 different intensities, an LED touch bar for maximum control, and an easily swappable head—all designed to cradle each tooth and remove tough plaque buildup as it cleans. Our tester reported that it feels like a bespoke toothbrush, thanks to the various speed settings: 'I liked that I was able to choose how fast or slow I wanted the brush to be, and that, after 30 seconds, it alerts you with a vibration to ensure you brush each quadrant of your mouth equally for two minutes.' Best Floss Alternative Waterpik is the at-home version of the dentist's oral irrigator tool, using a small but powerful stream to floss between the teeth. Medical professionals love it, because it is effective enough to remove debris and plaque between teeth crevices. It is also so targeted that it can even be used with braces. Our tester liked the adjustable pressure and the ease of the Waterpik compared to flossing. On her most recent visit, her dentist even complimented her on the cleanliness of her teeth. Best Health Tracking Tool Compared to other wellness tech, Oura rings are actually sleek—they come in six different colors and are true to their name, looking like simple metal jewelry. Every day, the ring gives a 'sleep score' and a 'readiness score' based on factors like resting heart rate, heart rate variability, body temperature, respiratory rate, and how long you spent in three different types of sleep (REM sleep, deep sleep, and light sleep). It also tracks your activity, step count, and menstrual cycle, if you want it to. Our tester found that the Oura ring was easy to wear and helped her look at her overall health in a more holistic way. She said that the biggest benefit has been learning about what habits affect her readiness and sleep scores (for example, a big meal before dinner negatively impacts both) and making lifestyle changes accordingly. Best Air Purifier Sans Air Purifiers manage to pack an industrial-grade air purification system into an elegant vessel that's smaller than a carry-on suitcase. These purifiers use a combination of medical-grade HEPA 13 filtration (a filter that's able to capture 99.97 percent of airborne particles), activated charcoal, and an internal Ultraviolet-C Light (a wavelength that kills germs) to clean the air in your home and protect against pathogens. Even the brand's mini version can clean the air up to 490 square feet—perfect for New York City apartments or large rooms in a house. It's also whisper quiet, so it's easy to incorporate into any space. Our tester has severe allergies and frequently sneezes when outside. She found that this powerful purification system helped keep her allergies under control, and she stopped sneezing entirely in her apartment. Best At-Home Hair Removal If you're tired of making a trip for your laser hair removal treatments, this tool gives you professional results at home. It connects to an accompanying app to provide real-time expert guidance for at-home hair removal for light to medium-dark skin tones. This tool includes three interchangeable heads, including a wide model for the chest and back, a standard one for underarms and lower legs, and a slimmer model for the face and bikini areas. It also uses intense pulsed lasers and automatically adjusts the intensity of the laser based on your skin tone to help reduce any risk of burns or discoloration. You can also use the app to track your progress over time. Our tester reports that the app was easy to use, and though the treatment itself delivered a slight sting, the process was quick. After two weeks of use on fair skin, our tester reported a slight reduction of hair in treated areas and was optimistic about future results with continued use. Best Humidifier Did you know that humidifiers can benefit your skin by adding moisture to the air, which can boost hydration and strengthen the skin's barrier? With this 2.0 version, Canopy took its humidifier three steps further—it doesn't just produce moisture, it also functions as an aroma diffuser, a sound machine, and a night light. It even has smart sensors that inhibit mold growth. Our tester's experience speaks for itself: 'I've used several humidifiers over the past few years, as my skin tends to be very dry in the winter, and I have chronic sinus issues and seasonal allergies. I've yet to find a humidifier that I liked as much as the Canopy. The special filter made upkeep easy and did not produce a wet mist. Every piece of this humidifier that touches water can go in the dishwasher, so it's extremely easy to keep clean. I have a humidity monitor in my room and found that this increased the humidity about 10 to 15 percent at the highest setting after about eight hours of use.' Best Shower Filter This shower head is almost like an at-home spa treatment. Its unique filter reduces and neutralizes chlorine, heavy metals, and calcium sulfite in your water to protect the natural oils in your hair and skin and prevent dryness. Each shower head also comes with aroma oils and a felt diffuser, so you can fill your bathroom with scents like rose and peony petals. Our tester notes that the shower head was easy to install and that the water stream felt luxurious and left their hair and skin feeling less dry than usual. He also noted that the scent tablets were a nice added bonus. Best At-Home Gel Manicure As our tester said, 'This tool takes the at-home nail extension manicure to the next level.' With a gel adhesive and an LED lamp, this system helps you achieve long, vampy nails that can last up to 14 days. Our tester loved that the larger version of the LED lamp didn't take up too much space in the bathroom, yet could also accommodate multiple fingers to make the curing process more efficient. 'It's really easy to use, and even has a light beam that tells you exactly where to place your hands.' Best Body Sculpting Tool This device combines red light therapy with microcurrent technology to create a sculpting effect on your body that you can really see. The Body Sculptor has 14 dual-chip LED lights, so it can emit both red and near infrared light to improve blood flow, boost collagen, and even out your skin tone. Four levels of microcurrent strength help promote lymphatic drainage, muscle stimulation, and fascia release, too. Paired together, these technologies help tighten, tone, and support recovery. Our tester found that the tool was easy to use, despite all of the different functionalities. After testing it consistently for a week, she said it helped her de-puff when she felt bloated and made her muscles look more defined every time.

The Good Stuff: 11 Products That'll Help You Get The Best Sleep Of Your Life
The Good Stuff: 11 Products That'll Help You Get The Best Sleep Of Your Life

CTV News

time4 days ago

  • Health
  • CTV News

The Good Stuff: 11 Products That'll Help You Get The Best Sleep Of Your Life

From lavender bath soaks to compression sheets, here's everything you need to get a good night's sleep. If you have trouble sleeping or just want to elevate your wind-down routine, you've come to the right place. The Good Stuff has teamed up with sleep expert Amanda Jewson to bring you some next-level sleep-promoting products that'll help you snooze like a celebrity. Drawing inspiration from the sleep routines of stars like Gwyneth Paltrow, Mariah Carey, Tom Cruise, and Michelle Obama, we've got you covered with everything from epsom salts to help relax your mind and body to blackout curtains and earplugs to help your block out the world when you're trying to catch some z's. Here are a few of the best sleep products you can get in Canada right now: The Absolute Best Sleep Masks You Can Get In Canada Right Now 19 Brilliant Products That'll Help You Get A Solid 8 Hours Of Sleep The Absolute Best Pill Organizers You Can Get In Canada Right Now Disclaimer: The prices displayed are accurate at the time of publication. We'll do our best to keep them as up-to-date as possible, but you may see slight changes.

Kate Moss's lifestyle brand she hoped would rival Gwyneth Paltrow's Goop closes less than three years after it was launched
Kate Moss's lifestyle brand she hoped would rival Gwyneth Paltrow's Goop closes less than three years after it was launched

Daily Mail​

time4 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • Daily Mail​

Kate Moss's lifestyle brand she hoped would rival Gwyneth Paltrow's Goop closes less than three years after it was launched

When Kate Moss created her lifestyle brand, Cosmoss, she hoped it would rival the success of Hollywood star Gwyneth Paltrow 's Goop. Now, however, the supermodel has thrown in the towel and closed down the company less than three years after it was launched to great fanfare at Harrods in 2022. Yesterday, she put the Cosmoss Group into voluntary liquidation. Its demise is reported in documents filed at Companies House, with a notice reporting the appointment of liquidators on June 18. At the time of launch, Moss, 51, claimed it would 'open a door' to 'balance, restoration and love'. Last year, she boasted that she had succeeded where the world's top scientists had failed – and found a miracle cure for eczema. Just one application of her new £105 Golden Nectar skin oil, she said, has the unexpected bonus of instantly getting rid of eczema or another incurable skin condition, psoriasis. 'I have to tell you a secret: we didn't know when we made it; we've discovered it since,' she said in a video of her talking with a fashion writer, posted on the Cosmoss Instagram page. Cosmoss products including dawn tea, face cream and cleanser. Last year, Ms Moss boasted she had found a miracle cure for eczema 'I have friends with eczema and any kind of psoriasis, any kind of spots, bites... You put this on – and gone, the next day.' Cosmoss sold a range of own-brand teas, skincare products and a book of 150 'positive messages'. Its launch represented a big change of career for Moss, who was branded 'Cocaine Kate' in 2005 after pictures surfaced which a newspaper claimed showed her snorting drugs at a music studio. She lost her £1 million contract with H&M and booked herself into a rehab clinic. Cosmoss has been a family affair for Moss, whose daughter Lila, also a model, attended various events promoting the brand. Lila, 22, who wore a revealing sheer top at Paris Fashion Week yesterday, was among the guests at Cosmoss's first anniversary party in 2023. In the same year, Kate won a legal battle with a Danish pharmaceutical firm over the Cosmoss name. It meant that she was able to trademark the brand for herbal preparations for medicinal purposes, plus food and mineral supplements. 'Kate has huge ambitions for the Cosmoss brand,' a source declared at the time. Cosmoss's first and only set of accounts showed that it owed lenders more than £405,000 against stock and assets of just over £315,000. Moss, who grew up in Croydon, south London, was due to file more up to date accounts by last December, but the figures – due to span 18 months to December 2023 – remain overdue at Companies House. Ahead of the liquidation, members of staff revealed that they had gone unpaid since January. The end of the brand also follows its failure to secure trademark status in America. Moss was the single-biggest shareholder in the business. The website remains up and running, but her goods cannot be placed into the basket to purchase.

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