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Edmonton Journal
04-07-2025
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
'Happy coincidence' or master plan: How Carney's team full of Quebecers wants to govern Canada
Article content While some believe Carney has an electoral debt to pay to Quebec, Harder said it's important to look broadly at the key players in a government as a collective. 'Public service is a team sport,' he said. Article content National Post spoke with more than a dozen sources for this article to gain insight into Carney's new team, with a focus on the Quebec angle. Sabia did not comment for this story. Several suggested that the influx of senior officials from that province is largely a coincidence, that they got their jobs simply because of experience and talent. Article content If so, it's a happy coincidence for Carney, a prime minister who grew up mostly in Edmonton, has spent much of his career in Ottawa, and speaks French as a second language. But some academics and other Ottawa insiders suggest that the prime minister is well aware that his connections to Quebec are fragile. Article content Article content 'Quebec is important,' said a source in the prime minister's office that spoke on background. 'The prime minister is not from Quebec, and it is important that he have this perspective. Quebec has its own culture, its own identity, and its own language.' Article content The key question centres on the possible effects of this Quebec-heavy contingent in the Carney government, both in terms of policy and politics. Will it help, for example, earn support for pipelines or ports that require Quebec to be on board? Article content Or could it mean new models or ways of looking at these major projects, such as the use of pension funds as a financial tool? Article content Either way, the Quebec element in the Carney government is, perhaps surprisingly, a marked change from the previous regime. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau, despite being a bilingual Quebecer, was often criticized because people from his home province held a limited number of the top jobs in his government. Article content Article content And so far, no matter the ingredients in the recipe or the motivations behind the government plan, it's clearly working. Carney is widely seen as the most popular politician in Quebec, despite his limited connections to the province. A recent Léger Poll placed him and Joly as the two most popular politicians in Quebec. Article content One of his first moves was to hire the Ontario-born Sabia, one of the best-known and most-respected business leaders in Quebec, to lead the government's swelling public service. Article content When Sabia was appointed head of the CDPQ in 2008, former business journalist Pierre Duhamel, who now advises business people at HEC Montréal, didn't like the hire. Like many other Quebecers at the time, Duhamel was unconvinced by the idea of appointing a 'Canadian' executive with a telecom background to lead Quebec's financial rock. Article content Article content A few years later, Duhamel described Sabia's tenure at such a complex institution as 'remarkable.' After a difficult period in the 2000s, Sabia diversified investments, globalized the Caisse, and launched CDPQ Infra, an infrastructure arm that oversees major infrastructure projects such as Montreal's light rail network, and enabled the pension fund to achieve strong performance. Article content 'But what I admire most are Mr. Sabia's management skills and political acumen,' he wrote in L'Actualité. Article content The Caisse is a public pension fund that has been enshrined in Quebec's economy, culture and politics since 1965. Today, it has 11 offices around the world and $473 billion in assets. Article content The Caisse is also the most recent employer of Carney's new chief of staff, Blanchard, who was a vice-president and head of CDPQ Global. Article content Duhamel said during an interview that he suspected that the two men had not been recruited because of their connections to Quebec, but rather to help facilitate new infrastructure projects that Carney would like to help finance through pension funds or private investors. Article content 'I saw that he was looking for people who knew this world, who were able to assess its potential, but also its constraints,' he said. Article content Sabia has said recently at a public event, however, that the major pension funds — Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and the CDPQ — are likely not the best candidates to help finance most infrastructure projects because they can be too risky for pension funds and are unlikely to deliver strong returns in the early years. Article content Article content Instead, early-stage capital mechanisms that aren't as risk averse need to be developed to get these projects started. Pension funds are more likely to get involved once a project is off the ground and producing returns. Article content Since pension funds are responsible for investing in ways that generate returns for their beneficiaries, which often means investing outside Canada, Trevor Tombe, a economics professor at the University of Calgary, believes they 'should not be seen as a vehicle for economic development.' Article content Quebec has a dual mandate within its public pension plan, he added, but the Canada Pension Plan is different. Article content 'Whether or not the prime minister wants the CPP to invest more in Canada, he can't do it unilaterally,' he added. 'But I think he should ask himself what the underlying reasons are for why capital is sometimes deployed elsewhere.' Article content Article content It all depends on the economic context in the country. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre recently told The Hub that he couldn't care less about the origins of Carney's aides, but said he fears the ideology of what he sees as a state-run economy. Article content 'It's a central planning model that has failed every time it's been implemented around the world. It significantly enriches a small group of very influential insiders.' Article content Another possible policy implication from the strong Quebec voices is that the proposed high-speed rail project from Windsor to Quebec City could get stronger support. It could also mean greater advocacy for the province's energy sector, government procurement that could bolster Montreal-area aerospace companies, and prioritizing the health of the aluminum industry in trade talks with the U.S. Article content For Sandra Aubé, Joly's former chief of staff at Foreign Affairs and a former Trudeau advisor, if Carney really wants to make Canada the G7's strongest economy, he has no choice but to create a more unified economy that includes Quebec. Article content 'We must not delude ourselves that Canada's biggest challenge in achieving all this is having energy. If we don't have the necessary electricity, for example, we won't be able to carry out any transformation whatsoever,' said Aubé, now a vice-president at TACT Conseil. Article content Another possible effect is that the high-ranking Quebecers may also be asked to play a unique role in advancing the government's agenda if the government needs to 'sell' the notion of some of the government's proposed big infrastructure projects in that province, according to Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax. Article content The odds of success regarding, for example, running a pipeline through Quebec are greater if high-profile Quebecers are playing a leading role in promoting the idea, she said. Article content Beyond the policy, there are also no doubt political implications of the strong Quebec voice in the Carney government, a wide range of sources say. Article content Article content Firstly, many in Quebec expect that these senior figures, in conjunction with a Quebec caucus of 44 Liberal MPs — more than one quarter of the total Liberal contingent in the House of Commons — will be able to take good care of their home province over the next few years. Article content Quebec Premier Francois Legault stated the case clearly. 'Mark Carney owes one to Quebecers,' he said after the Liberals claimed their best result in a federal election there since 1980. Article content But the flip side, that Carney expects these Quebecers to also help execute the government's agenda in their home province, is likely also true. Article content Beyond who will be best able to deliver for whom, there's also the intangible sense of understanding a part of a country or region. In an interview, Legault's intergovernmental affairs minister Simon Jolin-Barrette said in Carney's government 'there really is a positive change in attitude' and an 'openness toward Quebec' that wasn't always the case with the Trudeau government. Article content Article content Both in Quebec City and Ottawa, there is, at least for now, a feeling that having people from Quebec around the prime minister who know the province, its particularities and positions on language, culture, state secularism and immigration will facilitate a relationship that has often been rocky. Article content The province wants Ottawa to understand its sense of autonomy, but also the need for investments in the province that 'Quebec has its share,' said Jolin-Barrette. 'We sense a greater openness. There is an openness in Ottawa. There is a better understanding of Quebec's issues now, with Mr. Carney.' Article content Turnbull said Carney is clearly trying to show that Quebec is not at a disadvantage because he's from elsewhere. Article content 'There's some politics behind those parts of it,' she said. Article content The Joly and Champagne appointments may have in part been rewards for supporting Carney during the Liberal leadership race, Turnbull said, when either could have been legitimate candidates themselves.
Calgary Herald
04-07-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
'Happy coincidence' or master plan: How Carney's team full of Quebecers wants to govern Canada
Article content While some believe Carney has an electoral debt to pay to Quebec, Harder said it's important to look broadly at the key players in a government as a collective. 'Public service is a team sport,' he said. Article content National Post spoke with more than a dozen sources for this article to gain insight into Carney's new team, with a focus on the Quebec angle. Sabia did not comment for this story. Several suggested that the influx of senior officials from that province is largely a coincidence, that they got their jobs simply because of experience and talent. Article content If so, it's a happy coincidence for Carney, a prime minister who grew up mostly in Edmonton, has spent much of his career in Ottawa, and speaks French as a second language. But some academics and other Ottawa insiders suggest that the prime minister is well aware that his connections to Quebec are fragile. Article content Article content 'Quebec is important,' said a source in the prime minister's office that spoke on background. 'The prime minister is not from Quebec, and it is important that he have this perspective. Quebec has its own culture, its own identity, and its own language.' Article content The key question centres on the possible effects of this Quebec-heavy contingent in the Carney government, both in terms of policy and politics. Will it help, for example, earn support for pipelines or ports that require Quebec to be on board? Article content Or could it mean new models or ways of looking at these major projects, such as the use of pension funds as a financial tool? Article content Either way, the Quebec element in the Carney government is, perhaps surprisingly, a marked change from the previous regime. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau, despite being a bilingual Quebecer, was often criticized because people from his home province held a limited number of the top jobs in his government. Article content Article content And so far, no matter the ingredients in the recipe or the motivations behind the government plan, it's clearly working. Carney is widely seen as the most popular politician in Quebec, despite his limited connections to the province. A recent Léger Poll placed him and Joly as the two most popular politicians in Quebec. Article content One of his first moves was to hire the Ontario-born Sabia, one of the best-known and most-respected business leaders in Quebec, to lead the government's swelling public service. Article content When Sabia was appointed head of the CDPQ in 2008, former business journalist Pierre Duhamel, who now advises business people at HEC Montréal, didn't like the hire. Like many other Quebecers at the time, Duhamel was unconvinced by the idea of appointing a 'Canadian' executive with a telecom background to lead Quebec's financial rock. Article content A few years later, Duhamel described Sabia's tenure at such a complex institution as 'remarkable.' After a difficult period in the 2000s, Sabia diversified investments, globalized the Caisse, and launched CDPQ Infra, an infrastructure arm that oversees major infrastructure projects such as Montreal's light rail network, and enabled the pension fund to achieve strong performance. Article content 'But what I admire most are Mr. Sabia's management skills and political acumen,' he wrote in L'Actualité. Article content The Caisse is a public pension fund that has been enshrined in Quebec's economy, culture and politics since 1965. Today, it has 11 offices around the world and $473 billion in assets. Article content The Caisse is also the most recent employer of Carney's new chief of staff, Blanchard, who was a vice-president and head of CDPQ Global. Article content Duhamel said during an interview that he suspected that the two men had not been recruited because of their connections to Quebec, but rather to help facilitate new infrastructure projects that Carney would like to help finance through pension funds or private investors. Article content 'I saw that he was looking for people who knew this world, who were able to assess its potential, but also its constraints,' he said. Article content Sabia has said recently at a public event, however, that the major pension funds — Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and the CDPQ — are likely not the best candidates to help finance most infrastructure projects because they can be too risky for pension funds and are unlikely to deliver strong returns in the early years. Article content Article content Instead, early-stage capital mechanisms that aren't as risk averse need to be developed to get these projects started. Pension funds are more likely to get involved once a project is off the ground and producing returns. Article content Since pension funds are responsible for investing in ways that generate returns for their beneficiaries, which often means investing outside Canada, Trevor Tombe, a economics professor at the University of Calgary, believes they 'should not be seen as a vehicle for economic development.' Article content Quebec has a dual mandate within its public pension plan, he added, but the Canada Pension Plan is different. Article content 'Whether or not the prime minister wants the CPP to invest more in Canada, he can't do it unilaterally,' he added. 'But I think he should ask himself what the underlying reasons are for why capital is sometimes deployed elsewhere.' Article content Article content It all depends on the economic context in the country. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre recently told The Hub that he couldn't care less about the origins of Carney's aides, but said he fears the ideology of what he sees as a state-run economy. Article content 'It's a central planning model that has failed every time it's been implemented around the world. It significantly enriches a small group of very influential insiders.' Article content Another possible policy implication from the strong Quebec voices is that the proposed high-speed rail project from Windsor to Quebec City could get stronger support. It could also mean greater advocacy for the province's energy sector, government procurement that could bolster Montreal-area aerospace companies, and prioritizing the health of the aluminum industry in trade talks with the U.S. Article content For Sandra Aubé, Joly's former chief of staff at Foreign Affairs and a former Trudeau advisor, if Carney really wants to make Canada the G7's strongest economy, he has no choice but to create a more unified economy that includes Quebec. Article content 'We must not delude ourselves that Canada's biggest challenge in achieving all this is having energy. If we don't have the necessary electricity, for example, we won't be able to carry out any transformation whatsoever,' said Aubé, now a vice-president at TACT Conseil. Article content Another possible effect is that the high-ranking Quebecers may also be asked to play a unique role in advancing the government's agenda if the government needs to 'sell' the notion of some of the government's proposed big infrastructure projects in that province, according to Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax. Article content Beyond the policy, there are also no doubt political implications of the strong Quebec voice in the Carney government, a wide range of sources say. Article content Article content Firstly, many in Quebec expect that these senior figures, in conjunction with a Quebec caucus of 44 Liberal MPs — more than one quarter of the total Liberal contingent in the House of Commons — will be able to take good care of their home province over the next few years. Article content Quebec Premier Francois Legault stated the case clearly. 'Mark Carney owes one to Quebecers,' he said after the Liberals claimed their best result in a federal election there since 1980. Article content But the flip side, that Carney expects these Quebecers to also help execute the government's agenda in their home province, is likely also true. Article content Beyond who will be best able to deliver for whom, there's also the intangible sense of understanding a part of a country or region. In an interview, Legault's intergovernmental affairs minister Simon Jolin-Barrette said in Carney's government 'there really is a positive change in attitude' and an 'openness toward Quebec' that wasn't always the case with the Trudeau government. Article content Article content Both in Quebec City and Ottawa, there is, at least for now, a feeling that having people from Quebec around the prime minister who know the province, its particularities and positions on language, culture, state secularism and immigration will facilitate a relationship that has often been rocky. Article content The province wants Ottawa to understand its sense of autonomy, but also the need for investments in the province that 'Quebec has its share,' said Jolin-Barrette. 'We sense a greater openness. There is an openness in Ottawa. There is a better understanding of Quebec's issues now, with Mr. Carney.' Article content Turnbull said Carney is clearly trying to show that Quebec is not at a disadvantage because he's from elsewhere. Article content 'There's some politics behind those parts of it,' she said. Article content The Joly and Champagne appointments may have in part been rewards for supporting Carney during the Liberal leadership race, Turnbull said, when either could have been legitimate candidates themselves.
Ottawa Citizen
04-07-2025
- Business
- Ottawa Citizen
'Happy coincidence' or master plan: How Carney's team full of Quebecers wants to govern Canada
Article content While some believe Carney has an electoral debt to pay to Quebec, Harder said it's important to look broadly at the key players in a government as a collective. 'Public service is a team sport,' he said. Article content National Post spoke with more than a dozen sources for this article to gain insight into Carney's new team, with a focus on the Quebec angle. Sabia did not comment for this story. Several suggested that the influx of senior officials from that province is largely a coincidence, that they got their jobs simply because of experience and talent. Article content If so, it's a happy coincidence for Carney, a prime minister who grew up mostly in Edmonton, has spent much of his career in Ottawa, and speaks French as a second language. But some academics and other Ottawa insiders suggest that the prime minister is well aware that his connections to Quebec are fragile. Article content Article content 'Quebec is important,' said a source in the prime minister's office that spoke on background. 'The prime minister is not from Quebec, and it is important that he have this perspective. Quebec has its own culture, its own identity, and its own language.' Article content The key question centres on the possible effects of this Quebec-heavy contingent in the Carney government, both in terms of policy and politics. Will it help, for example, earn support for pipelines or ports that require Quebec to be on board? Article content Or could it mean new models or ways of looking at these major projects, such as the use of pension funds as a financial tool? Article content Either way, the Quebec element in the Carney government is, perhaps surprisingly, a marked change from the previous regime. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau, despite being a bilingual Quebecer, was often criticized because people from his home province held a limited number of the top jobs in his government. Article content Article content And so far, no matter the ingredients in the recipe or the motivations behind the government plan, it's clearly working. Carney is widely seen as the most popular politician in Quebec, despite his limited connections to the province. A recent Léger Poll placed him and Joly as the two most popular politicians in Quebec. Article content One of his first moves was to hire the Ontario-born Sabia, one of the best-known and most-respected business leaders in Quebec, to lead the government's swelling public service. Article content When Sabia was appointed head of the CDPQ in 2008, former business journalist Pierre Duhamel, who now advises business people at HEC Montréal, didn't like the hire. Like many other Quebecers at the time, Duhamel was unconvinced by the idea of appointing a 'Canadian' executive with a telecom background to lead Quebec's financial rock. Article content A few years later, Duhamel described Sabia's tenure at such a complex institution as 'remarkable.' After a difficult period in the 2000s, Sabia diversified investments, globalized the Caisse, and launched CDPQ Infra, an infrastructure arm that oversees major infrastructure projects such as Montreal's light rail network, and enabled the pension fund to achieve strong performance. Article content 'But what I admire most are Mr. Sabia's management skills and political acumen,' he wrote in L'Actualité. Article content The Caisse is a public pension fund that has been enshrined in Quebec's economy, culture and politics since 1965. Today, it has 11 offices around the world and $473 billion in assets. Article content The Caisse is also the most recent employer of Carney's new chief of staff, Blanchard, who was a vice-president and head of CDPQ Global. Article content Duhamel said during an interview that he suspected that the two men had not been recruited because of their connections to Quebec, but rather to help facilitate new infrastructure projects that Carney would like to help finance through pension funds or private investors. Article content 'I saw that he was looking for people who knew this world, who were able to assess its potential, but also its constraints,' he said. Article content Sabia has said recently at a public event, however, that the major pension funds — Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and the CDPQ — are likely not the best candidates to help finance most infrastructure projects because they can be too risky for pension funds and are unlikely to deliver strong returns in the early years. Article content Article content Instead, early-stage capital mechanisms that aren't as risk averse need to be developed to get these projects started. Pension funds are more likely to get involved once a project is off the ground and producing returns. Article content Since pension funds are responsible for investing in ways that generate returns for their beneficiaries, which often means investing outside Canada, Trevor Tombe, a economics professor at the University of Calgary, believes they 'should not be seen as a vehicle for economic development.' Article content Quebec has a dual mandate within its public pension plan, he added, but the Canada Pension Plan is different. Article content 'Whether or not the prime minister wants the CPP to invest more in Canada, he can't do it unilaterally,' he added. 'But I think he should ask himself what the underlying reasons are for why capital is sometimes deployed elsewhere.' Article content Article content It all depends on the economic context in the country. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre recently told The Hub that he couldn't care less about the origins of Carney's aides, but said he fears the ideology of what he sees as a state-run economy. Article content 'It's a central planning model that has failed every time it's been implemented around the world. It significantly enriches a small group of very influential insiders.' Article content Another possible policy implication from the strong Quebec voices is that the proposed high-speed rail project from Windsor to Quebec City could get stronger support. It could also mean greater advocacy for the province's energy sector, government procurement that could bolster Montreal-area aerospace companies, and prioritizing the health of the aluminum industry in trade talks with the U.S. Article content For Sandra Aubé, Joly's former chief of staff at Foreign Affairs and a former Trudeau advisor, if Carney really wants to make Canada the G7's strongest economy, he has no choice but to create a more unified economy that includes Quebec. Article content 'We must not delude ourselves that Canada's biggest challenge in achieving all this is having energy. If we don't have the necessary electricity, for example, we won't be able to carry out any transformation whatsoever,' said Aubé, now a vice-president at TACT Conseil. Article content Another possible effect is that the high-ranking Quebecers may also be asked to play a unique role in advancing the government's agenda if the government needs to 'sell' the notion of some of the government's proposed big infrastructure projects in that province, according to Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax. Article content Beyond the policy, there are also no doubt political implications of the strong Quebec voice in the Carney government, a wide range of sources say. Article content Article content Firstly, many in Quebec expect that these senior figures, in conjunction with a Quebec caucus of 44 Liberal MPs — more than one quarter of the total Liberal contingent in the House of Commons — will be able to take good care of their home province over the next few years. Article content Quebec Premier Francois Legault stated the case clearly. 'Mark Carney owes one to Quebecers,' he said after the Liberals claimed their best result in a federal election there since 1980. Article content But the flip side, that Carney expects these Quebecers to also help execute the government's agenda in their home province, is likely also true. Article content Beyond who will be best able to deliver for whom, there's also the intangible sense of understanding a part of a country or region. In an interview, Legault's intergovernmental affairs minister Simon Jolin-Barrette said in Carney's government 'there really is a positive change in attitude' and an 'openness toward Quebec' that wasn't always the case with the Trudeau government. Article content Article content Both in Quebec City and Ottawa, there is, at least for now, a feeling that having people from Quebec around the prime minister who know the province, its particularities and positions on language, culture, state secularism and immigration will facilitate a relationship that has often been rocky. Article content The province wants Ottawa to understand its sense of autonomy, but also the need for investments in the province that 'Quebec has its share,' said Jolin-Barrette. 'We sense a greater openness. There is an openness in Ottawa. There is a better understanding of Quebec's issues now, with Mr. Carney.' Article content Turnbull said Carney is clearly trying to show that Quebec is not at a disadvantage because he's from elsewhere. Article content 'There's some politics behind those parts of it,' she said. Article content The Joly and Champagne appointments may have in part been rewards for supporting Carney during the Liberal leadership race, Turnbull said, when either could have been legitimate candidates themselves.
Cision Canada
03-07-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Media Advisory - Navigating global turmoil and polarization through cooperatives, a model that must be strengthened for a fair and sustainable world Français
MONTRÉAL, July 3, 2025 /CNW/ - The Alphonse and Dorimène Desjardins International Institute for Cooperatives (IICADD) of HEC Montréal invites media representatives to the Global Research Conference on Cooperatives, which will be held from July 8 to 11, 2025 in Montréal. As 2025 marks the United Nations International Year of Cooperatives, this major conference will emphasize the relevance of the cooperative model at the global level in promoting justice, sustainability and prosperity and more broadly on social and solidarity economy. Relevance of the cooperative model in a world in transition In a world plagued by immense geopolitical changes, global rebalancing, tariff conflicts and wars on several continents as well as ongoing global warming, cooperatives are emerging as a model that must be strengthened to build a fair and sustainable world for all. Cooperatives are resilient structures that rely on democratic governance while fulfilling the needs of the community. Hundreds of participants expected from the local and international ecosystem Several stakeholders from the international cooperative ecosystem, including practitioners and policy makers, will attend the conference. See list of speakers [in French] Program Topics include: Sustainable agrifood systems Circular economy, social and solidarity economy Decolonization of the economy Governance and diversity, ethics Cooperative law, ethics Innovation through intercooperation Opportunities and challenges for financial cooperatives Renewable energy communities See the program About IICADD HEC Montréal The Alphonse and Dorimène Desjardins International Institute for Cooperatives (IICADD) of HEC Montréal is hosting the 5 th Global Research Conference of the International Cooperative Alliance. Founded in 1975, this organization supports the cooperative movement with evidence-based data. The Institute is structured into four areas of activity: supporting research on the cooperative and mutualist movement, equipping the student community and faculty members, disseminating knowledge and promoting access, development, and sharing of knowledge through PortailCoop, the world's largest digital library on cooperatives and mutuals. Sustainable transition This conference is part of HEC Montréal's positioning regarding sustainable transition. The School is committed to doing more for the sustainable management of a world in transition. It acknowledges the complexity of this major social issue, and pledges to evolve continuously and support managers and organizations in making the transition to a more sustainable economy. Director and spokesperson of IICADD HEC Montréal: Rafael Ziegler, Associate Professor, Department of Management [email protected] Expertise Cooperatives Circular economy Innovation studies Sustainability science and planning Environmental philosophy Practical information Date: July 8 to 11 2025 during the day (complete schedule in the program) Location: HEC Montréal/Hélène Desmarais Building 501, rue De La Gauchetière Ouest Montréal, Quebec H2Z 1Z5 SOURCE HEC Montréal
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jack Mintz: Don't expect big economic gains from lower interprovincial barriers
Canada is in an economic bind. U.S. tariffs on aluminum, steel, autos and non-CUSMA products aren't going away soon. U.S. President Donald Trump and his cabinet secretaries clearly like tariffs, both for the revenue they generate and for the boost they give critical U.S. industries. Canada now needs a Plan B to grow an economy that has stagnated for a decade. One approach is to strengthen the economy by removing interprovincial barriers to trade. The One Canadian Economy bill introduced last week will remove half of federal internal barriers and advance nation-building projects. The provinces are making new agreements to remove barriers. That's all good. Removing barriers to trade in goods and services will help put Canadian economic resources to more profitable use. The question is whether it will reap the $200 billion in economic gains that Prime Minister Mark Carney mentioned in his briefing on the new bill last week. Doubt that the gains will be large comes from a new paper by Jonathan Deslauriers, Robert Gagné and Jonathan Paré of HEC Montréal. Recent studies have estimated that the removal of interprovincial trade barriers would lead to a GDP gain of seven per cent, after accounting for transport costs and the distance between provinces. That work is innovative, but it does not identify which barriers have such a noticeable impact on GDP. It's certainly not trade in beer. The studies that generate such big numbers typically assume that, absent barriers and transport costs, provinces would all have the same split between imported and domestic goods. That's obviously wrong: consumers have different preferences, income and access to international markets. Taking such variables into account would make the estimated economic loss attributed to interprovincial barriers much smaller. So far, there hasn't been much correlation between reducing barriers and growing GDP. The 1994 Agreement on Internal Trade did not lead to a noticeable increase in interprovincial trade as a share of GDP. Nor did its successor, the 2017 Canadian Free Trade Agreement. In fact, we have seen the opposite: interprovincial trade fell from a quarter of GDP in 1984 to less than a fifth by 1999 and has remained relatively flat ever since. On the other hand, international trade, measured by exports plus imports, grew from half of GDP in 1989 to four-fifths in 2001, though it has since fallen back to about two-thirds, where it is today. Canadian businesses have found it more economic to trade with American regions than other provinces, despite requiring custom clearance and facing other hassles — though these became less burdensome with Canada-U.S. Free Trade starting in 1989 and NAFTA in 1994. Despite the border frictions that remain, international trade is much more important to Canada than interprovincial trade. One reason why is that although our internal agreements have dismantled some barriers they are not based on a general principle of mobility of goods, services, people and capital, as found in the European Union treaty. Instead, there are many agreed 'exceptions.' The general ones include taxation, Aboriginal policies, preserving water resources, providing social services and protecting language and culture. Each province also lists its own exceptions to existing or future measures. For example, many have maintained barriers to mobility for law professionals, licensed practical nurses, dental hygienists and social workers. In some cases, these barriers could be relaxed but in others, like law, training is partly specific to the province. Harmonizing trucking rules across provinces could boost GDP but differences in road and bridge structures limit what can be done. Even if trade barriers are removed, it is not hard to recreate them in other ways. After Alberta lowered mark-ups on Alberta-made craft beer but not 'imports' from other provinces, the courts ruled that the province had violated Section 121 of the Constitution Act, which prohibits custom duties and tariffs on goods coming from other provinces. (Full disclosure: I was an expert witness in that case on the winning side.) But the province could instead have favoured its own craft industry with tax incentives for investment and other costs. Other provinces, including B.C., Ontario, Nova Scotia and Quebec, have done that, either with concessionary excise tax rates or various tax incentives or grants. It's not exactly consistent with provinces signing new internal trade agreements. King has an easier job with throne speech than Carney We can't afford another lost decade Of course, if U.S. tariffs remain in place, our exports to the U.S. will fall and internal trade could rise. The auto industry currently exports 1.4 million autos to the United States, while Canadian consumers import over four-fifths of their autos from CUSMA partners or Europe and Asia. More internal trade will only happen, however, if Canadian businesses are competitive with goods and services imported from Asia, Europe and other regions, and they may not be without protectionist tariffs. If we really want to strengthen the Canadian economy, we'll get a bigger impact from deregulation, tax reform, resource development, infrastructure and other pro-competitive policies. Don't put too much faith in out-sized economic gains from removing selected interprovincial barriers.
