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Time of India
13-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold market outlook: Prices to stay firm next week; risk aversion, weak dollar to fuel gains
Representative image Gold prices are expected to remain firm in the upcoming week, supported by heightened global risk aversion, sustained weakness in the US dollar index, and a series of trade-related developments as key supporting factors, analysts said. They further added that investors will be focusing on key US data releases, including Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and retail sales figures, which could offer further cues for bullion prices. Jateen Trivedi, VP, research analyst, commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said gold is likely to remain strong as long as it stays above Rs 97,000 per 10 grams on the MCX. 'Renewed trade tariff jitters and continued weakness in the dollar index are amplifying global risk aversion, prompting a shift away from risky assets toward safe-haven instruments like bullion,' Trivedi said, adding that a weak rupee may further support the upward trajectory of the yellow metal's price. Last week, the yellow metal futures for August delivery rose Rs 842, or 0.86 per cent, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Investments, said gold started the week on a weaker note as easing tensions between Israel and Iran, along with stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, dampened safe-haven demand. However, prices rebounded after US President Donald Trump imposed fresh tariffs ranging from 35 to 50% on Canada and Brazil, reigniting fears of a trade war and lifting bullion demand. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Esta IA está generando ingresos (Ver más) Finanzas y economía Empieza ahora Undo Traders are also watching the ongoing negotiations between India and the US for a potential trade deal, which could influence market sentiment, Hareesh V said, quoted by PTI. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold prices have surged nearly 3 per cent on the MCX, rising from Rs 94,951 per 10 grams on June 27 to Rs 97,830 on July 11. Internationally, Comex gold futures have jumped around 2.8% over the same period. Mallya attributed the gains to the Trump administration's aggressive tariff stance on commodities like copper, aluminium, and pharmaceuticals. President Trump's signal that the August 1 tariff deadline will not be extended has added to market uncertainty. 'Gold typically performs well during such periods of elevated risk,' Mallya said, projecting a possible move towards $3,500 per ounce and Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams on the MCX in the near term. On Friday, Comex gold futures for August delivery rose $38.30, or 1.15%, to close at $3,364 per ounce. N S Ramaswamy, head of commodities and CRM at Ventura, said gold's key resistance of $3,360 has been tested and a decisive break could trigger further gains, even as the US dollar remains firm and on a recovery path. Geopolitical tensions, including potential US sanctions on Russia and the threat of more tariffs, could continue to support gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, Ramaswamy added. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
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Business Standard
13-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Gold likely to trade firm next week on weak dollar, global risks: Analysts
Gold prices are likely to trade firm in the coming week supported by global risk aversion, persistent weakness in the US dollar index, and a flurry of trade-related developments, analysts said. Investors will closely monitor the release of US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and retail sale data, which could in turn provide more direction for the bullion prices, they added. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said gold is expected to trade strong in the coming week as long as it sustains above Rs 97,000 per 10 grams on the MCX. "Renewed trade tariff jitters and continued weakness in the dollar index are amplifying global risk aversion, prompting a shift away from risky assets toward safe-haven instruments like bullion," Trivedi noted, adding that a weak rupee could further aid upside momentum in the gold prices. Last week, the yellow metal futures for August delivery climbed Rs 842, or 0.86 per cent, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments, said the yellow metal started the week on a weaker note as easing tensions between Israel and Iran and better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data dampened safe-haven demand. However, prices rebounded after US President Donald Trump imposed fresh tariffs ranging between 35 and 50 per cent on Canada and Brazil, reviving concerns of a full-blown trade war and boosting bullion demand. Traders are closely watching the ongoing negotiations between India and the US over a potential trade deal, which could influence sentiment, Hareesh V added. According to Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, gold prices have surged nearly 3 per cent on the MCX, rising from Rs 94,951 per 10 grams on June 27 to close on Rs 97,830 per 10 grams on July 11. Meanwhile, Comex gold futures in the international markets have jumped nearly 2.8 per cent in the same period. Mallya attributed the gains to the Trump administration's aggressive tariff measures on commodities, including copper, aluminium, and pharmaceuticals. President Trump's indication that he will not extend the August 1 tariff deadline has intensified market uncertainty. Gold typically performs well during such periods of elevated risk, Mallya said, projecting a possible move toward USD 3,500 per ounce and Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams on MCX in the near term. On Friday, Comex gold futures for August delivery rose USD 38.30, or 1.15 per cent, to close at USD 3,364 per ounce. N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities and CRM at Ventura, said gold's key resistance of USD 3,360 has been tested and a decisive break will establish further rally and unlock its potential, despite headwinds of US dollar remaining firm and on recovery path. The geopolitical concerns, including possible US sanctions on Russia and the threat of additional tariffs, could keep the safe-haven appeal of gold intact, Ramaswamy added.
Economic Times
08-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Why aluminium prices are rising and what to expect next
Hareesh V, Head of Commodities, Geojit Investments ADVERTISEMENT Aluminium, an essential component of modern industry, plays a vital role in sectors ranging from construction and transportation to packaging and renewable energy. As of June 2025, aluminium prices are trading between $2,450 and $2,600 per ton in the key London Metal Exchange. The recent uptick—about 10–15% since January —is largely driven by renewed US-China tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs. The imposition of higher tariffs on aluminium imports into the US, aiming to protect domestic producers, led to a surge in commodity prices that contributed to global price volatility. Over the past decade, the aluminium market has experienced significant shifts driven by geopolitical tensions, energy prices, and evolving demand patterns—particularly influenced by China, the world's largest producer and consumer. China, which accounts for nearly 60% of global aluminium output, is experiencing a slowdown in manufacturing activity. A recent contraction in its manufacturing sector has raised concerns about reduced demand from the world's largest commodity consumer. Over the past decade, China's aluminium output has surged, supported by state-backed investments and a robust manufacturing base. However, environmental policies and energy constraints have recently led to production curbs, especially in coal-intensive regions. ADVERTISEMENT In 2025, China's aluminium demand is expected to remain relatively stable, with modest growth in the construction and EV sectors offset by a slowdown in real estate and exports. Meanwhile, supply-side reforms and energy transition policies are likely to keep production growth in check, contributing to tighter domestic balances and increased reliance on aluminium supply and demand have seen moderate growth over the last ten years. From 2015 to 2024, global aluminium demand grew at an average annual rate of 2.5%, driven by increased consumption in electric vehicles, infrastructure, and green technologies. However, supply growth has been constrained by environmental regulations, energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions. ADVERTISEMENT Aluminium prices have been notably volatile in the past decade. In 2015, prices hovered around $1,600 per metric ton, reflecting oversupply and weak demand. Prices gradually recovered, peaking above $3,000 per ton in 2021 amid post-pandemic stimulus and supply chain disruptions. Since then, prices have fluctuated due to macroeconomic uncertainty, energy costs, and trade tensions. Global aluminium mine supply has experienced moderate growth in recent years, due to rising demand for lightweight, sustainable materials and the global energy transition. However, geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and regulatory changes continue to pose risks to supply stability. In 2025, mine supply is expected to remain tight due to delays in new project developments and logistical challenges. ADVERTISEMENT Looking ahead, aluminium prices are expected to remain volatile through the rest of 2025. Amid persistent geopolitical tensions, constrained supply from China, and growing demand from alternative markets like India and the Middle East are likely to keep prices firm in the second half of this year. However, downside risks remain. A potential global recession, weakening industrial output, and high interest rates could dampen demand and exert downward pressure on prices. Aluminium's strategic importance continues to grow, but the market faces a complex mix of opportunities and challenges. While long-term demand remains strong, especially from green industries, short-term volatility driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors will likely define the aluminium landscape in 2025. ADVERTISEMENT (The author Hareesh V. is head of Commodities, Geojit Investments. The views expressed are personal.) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
08-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Why aluminium prices are rising and what to expect next
Hareesh V, Head of Commodities , Geojit Investments Aluminium, an essential component of modern industry, plays a vital role in sectors ranging from construction and transportation to packaging and renewable energy. As of June 2025, aluminium prices are trading between $2,450 and $2,600 per ton in the key London Metal Exchange. The recent uptick—about 10–15% since January —is largely driven by renewed US-China tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Khu Pho Ba Hang: Unsold Furniture Liquidation 2024 (Prices May Surprise You) Unsold Furniture | Search Ads Learn More Undo The imposition of higher tariffs on aluminium imports into the US, aiming to protect domestic producers, led to a surge in commodity prices that contributed to global price volatility. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Over the past decade, the aluminium market has experienced significant shifts driven by geopolitical tensions, energy prices, and evolving demand patterns—particularly influenced by China, the world's largest producer and consumer. China, which accounts for nearly 60% of global aluminium output, is experiencing a slowdown in manufacturing activity. A recent contraction in its manufacturing sector has raised concerns about reduced demand from the world's largest commodity consumer. Live Events Over the past decade, China's aluminium output has surged, supported by state-backed investments and a robust manufacturing base. However, environmental policies and energy constraints have recently led to production curbs, especially in coal-intensive regions. In 2025, China's aluminium demand is expected to remain relatively stable, with modest growth in the construction and EV sectors offset by a slowdown in real estate and exports. Meanwhile, supply-side reforms and energy transition policies are likely to keep production growth in check, contributing to tighter domestic balances and increased reliance on imports. Globally, aluminium supply and demand have seen moderate growth over the last ten years. From 2015 to 2024, global aluminium demand grew at an average annual rate of 2.5%, driven by increased consumption in electric vehicles, infrastructure, and green technologies. However, supply growth has been constrained by environmental regulations, energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions. Aluminium prices have been notably volatile in the past decade. In 2015, prices hovered around $1,600 per metric ton, reflecting oversupply and weak demand. Prices gradually recovered, peaking above $3,000 per ton in 2021 amid post-pandemic stimulus and supply chain disruptions. Since then, prices have fluctuated due to macroeconomic uncertainty, energy costs, and trade tensions. Global aluminium mine supply has experienced moderate growth in recent years, due to rising demand for lightweight, sustainable materials and the global energy transition. However, geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and regulatory changes continue to pose risks to supply stability. In 2025, mine supply is expected to remain tight due to delays in new project developments and logistical challenges. Looking ahead, aluminium prices are expected to remain volatile through the rest of 2025. Amid persistent geopolitical tensions, constrained supply from China, and growing demand from alternative markets like India and the Middle East are likely to keep prices firm in the second half of this year. However, downside risks remain. A potential global recession , weakening industrial output, and high interest rates could dampen demand and exert downward pressure on prices. Aluminium's strategic importance continues to grow, but the market faces a complex mix of opportunities and challenges. While long-term demand remains strong, especially from green industries, short-term volatility driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors will likely define the aluminium landscape in 2025. (The author Hareesh V. is head of Commodities, Geojit Investments. The views expressed are personal.)
