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Kuwait Times
29-06-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
China's Iran oil imports surge on rising shipments, teapot demand
China's Iran oil imports surge on rising shipments, teapot demand Beijing imported over 1.8m bpd from Iran for June 1-20 SINGAPORE/LONDON: China's oil imports from Iran surged in June as shipments accelerated before the recent conflict between Zionist entity and Iran and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said. The world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude brought in more than 1.8 million barrels per day from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data. Kpler's data put the month-to-date average of China's Iranian oil and condensate imports at 1.46 million bpd as of June 27, up from one million bpd in May. The rising imports were fuelled in part by an increase in available supplies from floating storage after export loadings from Iran reached a multi-year high of 1.83 million bpd in May, Kpler data showed. It typically takes at least one month for Iranian oil to reach Chinese ports. Robust loadings in May and early June mean China's imports from Iran are poised to remain elevated, Kpler and Vortexa analysts said. Independent Chinese 'teapot' refineries, the main buyers of Iranian oil, also showed strong demand as their stockpiles depleted, said Xu Muyu, Kpler's senior analyst. A possible relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil could further bolster Chinese buying, she added. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Washington had not given up its maximum pressure campaign on Iran - including restrictions on Iranian oil sales - but signaled a potential easing in enforcement to help the country rebuild. For this week, Iranian Light crude oil was being traded at around $2 a barrel below ICE Brent for end-July to early-August deliveries, two traders familiar with the matter said, compared to discounts of $3.30-$3.50 a barrel previously for July deliveries. Narrower discounts were spurred by worries that oil flows could be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway between Iran and Oman, traders said. Market fears for a closure of the choke-point escalated after last weekend's US attack on Iranian nuclear sites but eased after Iran and Zionist entity on Tuesday accepted a ceasefire. Tighter discounts for Iranian oil come amid a retreat in futures prices. ICE Brent crude futures hovered at $68 per barrel on Friday, their level before the Zionist-Iran conflict began and down 19 percent from Monday's five-month peak. Iran's overall crude exports likely slowed in the second half of June amid the Zionist entity and US airstrikes, Kpler, Vortexa and a third vessel tracking firm told Reuters. Iran's total crude shipments have slowed to a monthly average of 1.5 million bpd so far in June, according to Kpler, down from a five-week high of 2.2 million bpd in the week starting June 16. Vessel tracking firm Petro-Logistics also estimated that shipments dropped in the second half of June after a strong start to the month. 'Crude exports in the first half of the month were at multi-year highs as Iran rushed to export cargoes following the Zionist entity attacks of June 13,' Daniel Gerber of Petro-Logistics told Reuters. 'While there appears to have been a slowdown since then, we assess that crude loadings have continued largely uninterrupted.' A big drop in exports from Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, would tighten global supplies and likely support oil prices. — Reuters
Business Insider
26-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Top 5 African countries that produced the most oil in May 2025
For several African countries, oil production still stands as a key revenue source and a significant buttress to their Gross Domestic Product, making it a sturdy resource. However, the production of this resource typically fluctuates month-on-month, and for May, this trend has been no different. Oil production remains a key revenue source for several African nations, significantly impacting their GDP. OPEC's May report highlights a monthly decline in oil prices, including ORB, ICE Brent, and NYMEX WTI contracts. Global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain steady at 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively. According to the latest OPEC report, the month of May saw the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fall by $5.36, or 7.8%, month on month (m-o-m), to $63.62/b. Additionally, the ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $2.45, or 3.7%, month on month to average $64.01/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $2.02, or 3.2%, to $60.94/b. 'The global economy maintained a stable growth trajectory, supported by healthy 1Q25 growth and tentative progress in US trade negotiations,' the report stated. 'The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026,' it added. According to last month's estimate, the global oil demand growth prediction for 2025 is still 1.3 mb/d, year-over-year (y-o-y). A few small revisions were made, mostly to the 1Q25 real data. In 2025, the OECD expects oil consumption to increase by around 0.2 mb/d, whereas non-OECD demand is expected to increase by over 1.1 mb/d. In contrast, the supply of non-DoC liquids is expected to increase by around 0.8 mb/d, year over year, in 2025, according to the same prediction made last month. Argentina, Canada, Brazil, and the United States are anticipated to be the primary growth engines. The report also notes that for the second half of the year, supply output in Africa and some Asian markets is projected to experience very significant declines. However, some African countries are still churning out decent amounts of crude. With that said, here are the African countries with the highest oil production last month in thousand barrels per day (tb/d), according to OPEC's latest report. Save Congo, all other African countries on the list experienced an increase in oil-production compared to last month. Top 5 African countries that produced the most oil in May 2025 Rank Country DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d Change between May and April 1. Nigeria 1,544 22 2. Libya 1,302 36 3. Algeria 921 9 4. Congo 253 -6 5. Gabon 233 12
Straits Times
24-06-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
China's heavy reliance on Iranian oil imports
SINGAPORE - China is the main buyer of oil from Iran, which accounts for roughly 13.6 per cent of purchases in 2025 by the world's largest crude importer, leaving Beijing uniquely exposed to any supply disruption from conflict in the Middle East. Beijing, which is also the biggest buyer of oil from Venezuela and a top importer of oil from Russia, has used purchases from the three countries facing various Western sanctions to save billions of dollars on its import bill in recent years. How much Iranian oil does China buy? China buys roughly 90 per cent of Iran's shipped oil, which has limited buyers due to US sanctions aimed at cutting off funding to Tehran's nuclear programme. In the first six months of 2025, China purchased an average of 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, according to Kpler data. In 2024, China's Iran purchases averaged 1.48 million barrels per day, or about 14.6 per cent of China's imports, according to Kpler. Who are the main Chinese buyers of Iranian crude? Chinese independent refiners known as teapots, clustered mainly in Shandong province, are the main buyers of Iranian crude, drawn by its discount to non-sanctioned barrels. Teapots, which account for roughly one-quarter of Chinese refinery capacity, operate on narrow and sometimes negative margins and have been squeezed recently by tepid domestic demand for refined products. China's big state oil companies have refrained from buying Iranian oil since 2018/2019, traders and experts have said. How much cheaper is Iranian oil? Iranian light crude traded at US$3.30 to US$3.50 a barrel below ICE Brent for July deliveries, Reuters reported on June 20, compared to discounts of around US$2.50 for June, three traders said, as teapots slowed buying and sellers looked to cut inventories. Compared to non-sanctioned oil from the Middle East, Iranian oil currently trades at a roughly US$7-8 per barrel discount, according to traders. Are US sanctions having an impact? Washington reinstated sanctions on Tehran in 2018, and President Donald Trump's administration has imposed several new rounds of sanctions on Iran's oil trade since taking office in January. Mr Trump's sanctions have included penalties on three Chinese teapots, which has led to curtailed buying from several mid-sized independents worried about being designated, Reuters reported. One trader estimated that non-sanctioned oil has replaced about 100,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil to China in 2025. What is Beijing's stance on the Iran oil trade? Beijing rejects unilateral sanctions and defends its trade with Iran as legitimate. Iranian oil imported by China is typically labelled by traders as originating from other countries, such as Malaysia, a major transshipment hub. Chinese customs data has not shown any oil shipped from Iran since July 2022. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Arabian Post
21-06-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
China's Iran Oil Bet Hits Strategic Snag
China is confronting significant disruption to its Iranian crude oil supply, risking both its energy security and geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East. With over 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports directed to China via Kpler, the contraction of that flow places Beijing's $400 billion 2021 cooperation deal in jeopardy. Major Chinese independent refiners, the so‑called 'teapots' in Shandong province, are enduring mounting losses as deepening discounts on Iranian oil clash with soaring global prices. Discounts have widened to between $3.30 and $3.50 a barrel against ICE Brent for July cargoes – up from approximately $2.50 in June – contributing to refinery utilisation dropping to around 51 per cent, down from 64 per cent a year ago. Despite Israel's airstrikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure and concerns over potential U.S. sanctions, Iran has maintained its exports through a shadow tanker fleet and strategic logistics adjustments. Kpler reports that crude loadings have reached a five‑week high of about 2.2 million barrels per day, assisted by the use of a less exposed jetty on Kharg Island and pre‑positioning of floating stocks nearer to China – including approximately 8 million barrels stationed offshore China. ADVERTISEMENT In 2024, Iranian shipments to China peaked at 1.6 million barrels per day, but that volume had already declined to roughly 740,000 bpd by April 2025, as broader Middle East instability and tightening sanctions exerted pressure. Rival supplies from OPEC+ producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE may partially compensate, yet analysts emphasise that prolonged disruption would still erode Beijing's strategic leverage and diplomatic role in the region. For China, this dependence on Iranian crude is part of a broader ambition to deepen its influence across the Middle East as a counterweight to the West. The initial rationale behind the 25‑year deal encompassed energy security, infrastructure projects, trade expansion, and regional diplomacy. But the conflict's escalation threatens those objectives, undermining China's established pipeline for cheap oil and complicating its efforts to mediate regional tensions. Economists note the urgency for Beijing to accelerate its shift toward renewable energy and domestic self-reliance. China had already reached a milestone with renewables comprising 56 per cent of its electricity capacity in 2024. The current moment has intensified calls to reduce external vulnerabilities and accelerate electrification. At present, the Chinese government has refrained from military engagement, calling for de-escalation and abstaining from direct intervention in support of Iran. Instead, it is pursuing regional diplomacy while guarding its considerable investments. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson emphasised the need to 'prevent the region from spiralling into greater turmoil', particularly to secure stable energy imports. However, should the conflict deepen, or if key Iranian oil infrastructure suffers irreparable damage, China's reliance on opaque supply routes and shadow trading may no longer suffice. Its medium‑term strategy of presenting itself as a credible peace broker in the Middle East faces growing strain amid diverging interests between Iran and Gulf states. China appears poised to rely more heavily on Gulf crude, yet that reliance comes with its own geopolitical calculations. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi together hold significant spare capacity – over 4 million barrels per day – which may cushion global shocks but do little to salvage China's ambition to sustain influence via energy partnerships. The unfolding developments in the Israel–Iran arena have exposed strategic fissures in a partnership that once appeared unshakeable. Even as Iran adapts tactically to maintain its export pipeline to China, Beijing must confront the reality that maintaining influence in the region demands resilience beyond discounted barrels and shadow fleets.
Al Etihad
15-06-2025
- Business
- Al Etihad
Iran-Israel tensions: Analysts optimistic about stability of oil supplies
15 June 2025 16:56 A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)Most analysts remain optimistic about the stability of crude prices and the continuity of global oil shipments, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, despite escalating tensions between Iran and the conflict has fuelled market speculation, most industry analysts and trade experts continue to express confidence in the resilience of global energy trade. Their view is anchored in historical precedent, economic pragmatism, and the deeply interwoven trade relationships that characterise the Arabian Gulf Strait of Hormuz — a narrow but critical maritime corridor at the mouth of the Arabian Gulf — handles close to 30% of the world's crude and refined petroleum exports and around 20% of global LNG flows. A complete closure would undoubtedly shake global energy markets. However, most observers consider such an outcome unlikely. "While we don't yet foresee a war escalating to a Hormuz blockade, its closure would severely impact global energy flows," a Chinese oil trader told S&P Global. But despite rising tensions and military strikes between Israel and Iran, there has been no significant disruption to commercial shipping so far. Historical confrontations between the two countries have also avoided this red a note issued on June 13, JP Morgan analysts assessed the risk of Iran closing the Strait as 'very low', citing Iran's reluctance to damage its economic lifeline — especially its vital trade relationship with to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Iran pumped 3.24 million barrels per day (b/d) in May, most of which is exported to China. Any move to restrict traffic through Hormuz would not only sever this economic artery but also affect its ability to send supplies to initially reacted with concern. ICE Brent crude futures spiked 8.97% on June 13 — the sharpest single-day gain in five years. But analysts at S&P Global and Goldman Sachs expect such price volatility to be temporary, barring direct attacks on energy infrastructure. 'We've seen these spikes before. Prices jump, then retreat when it's clear that oil flows are not actually impacted,' said Richard Joswick, Head of Near-Term Oil Analysis at S&P this outlook is the presence of alternative logistics. The UAE's Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, for instance, enables crude to bypass Hormuz altogether. Long-term LNG supply contracts between China and exporters like Qatar and the UAE also offer stability and reduce reliance on spot risk insurance premiums in the Arabian Gulf, which cover ships navigating high-risk zones, remain steady at 0.05%–0.07% of vessel hull value — unchanged for 18 months. Though freight charges could rise if hostilities deepen, there is no current indication of a shipping refiners are the largest buyers of Gulf crude. 'Extreme actions could provoke responses from Asian military powers. So both Iran and Israel are likely to exercise caution,' said a Tokyo-based feedstock manager. Refiners in South Korea, Japan, and Thailand have echoed similar sentiments, underscoring confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will stay Goldman Sachs, while adjusting its geopolitical risk premium, predicts Brent crude to fall back to the $60s in 2026, assuming no long-term infrastructure damage and a compensatory output from OPEC+.In a potential escalation scenario, Goldman estimates a temporary loss of 1.75 million b/d from Iran if its export infrastructure is damaged — but believes this shortfall could be partially offset by OPEC+ spare capacity. Under such conditions, Brent could peak over $90/b, before normalising as supply recovers.S&P Global concurs that the real inflection point would be a direct disruption to exports. 'Unless exports are impacted, the price upside will fade,' its analysts noted. Joswick reinforced this by citing 2024, when similar flare-ups triggered short-term price movements that quickly reversed once it became clear supply was Pollack, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute, noted: 'If Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the US would come in with all guns blazing.' Analysts warn that such a move would not only provoke military responses but would be viewed by Gulf neighbours as a direct economic threat.'There is no doubt the situation in the Arabian Gulf is very tense. We have reports that more shipowners are now exercising extra caution and are opting to stay away from the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf,' said Jakob P Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer at BIMCO, the world's largest international shipping association.'There is currently no indication that Iran will seek to disrupt shipping in the Gulf, and no indication at this point that the Houthis will seek to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. The tripwire will be the perception of the US' involvement. If the US is suddenly perceived to be involved in attacks, the risk of escalation increases significantly,' Larsen told Aletihad.'BIMCO encourages shipowners to follow developments closely and implement ship defence measures according to the industry guidance document,' he added. Meanwhile, broader OPEC+ dynamics are also at play. Eight OPEC+ member states are moving to restore 2.2 million b/d of curtailed output to regain their market share. 'We'll likely see more unwinding of voluntary cuts,' said Harry Tchiliguirian, Head of Research at Onyx Capital Advisory. This will likely have a mitigating impact on oil prices.
