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The Diplomat
10 hours ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
Washington Discusses the Future of Central Asia-US Relations, While Beijing Takes Concrete Action
The Atlantic Council, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, held its inaugural U.S.-Central Asia Forum on June 5 to discuss the future of Washington's strategy toward the region. The discussion, organized by the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, comes at an opportune time as Central Asia engages extraregional states to cement relationships and attract new partners and investors. In the past two months, several high-profile meetings have taken place, including the first Central Asia-European Union summit, the first Central Asia-Italy summit (which took place during Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Miloni's visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan), and an informal summit of heads of states of the Organization of Turkic States. Moreover, the second China-Central Asia summit occurred in mid-June. Meanwhile, Washington has lagged behind regarding high-profile engagement with Central Asia in the first months of the second Trump administration. Speakers at the event included Kazakhstan's Ambassador to the U.S. Yerzhan Ashikbayev; Alisher Akhmedov, the deputy chief of mission of Uzbekistan in Washington; and former officials like Lisa Curtis, currently a senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and former U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan (2008 to 2011) Tatiana Gfoeller. Mining was a significant topic for the conference. Ashikbayev, for example, highlighted that Kazakhstan produces '20 critical minerals;' regarding uranium, 'we have a gargantuan share of the global production, 40 percent.' Investment in infrastructure remains a priority for the country, which would help with the transportation of critical minerals to international markets, like the U.S. and Europe. Current projects include expanding Kazakhstan's railroad system 'We are planning to construct 5,000 kilometers of railroads [by] 2030,' the ambassador said. Moreover, Astana plans to expand the size of its Caspian fleet 'from 17 to 34 [transport] vessels.' The Caspian Sea is a critical artery of the Middle Corridor, connecting Kazakhstan's Aktau and Kuryk ports with Azerbaijan's Baku port, hence additional vessels and tankers are mandatory to increase the volume of transportation. Meanwhile, Akhmedov highlighted an April visit to the U.S. capital by an Uzbek government delegation led by Foreign Affairs Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov, which included meetings with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A memorandum on critical minerals was reportedly signed during Saidov's visit. 'We are now moving forward' via this document, Akhemdov said at the forum, as the 'critical mineral focus is a strategic realignment' of bilateral relations. Figuring out how to capitalize on the second Trump administration's focus on critical minerals and energy-related supply chains in general to attract U.S. interest and engagement with the Central Asian countries is the primary challenge for Astana and Tashkent. Ashikbayev highlighted Astana's membership in the Mineral Security Partnership, the country being a 'strong supporter and participant in the critical minerals dialogue,' and noted how Kazakhstan is the 'driver' of the C5+1 format. Similarly, Akhmedov noted that Uzbekistan aims to use the country's mineral resources not only for extraction and mining-related profit but also to 'become a trusted and highly valued partner in global supply chains.' It is worth noting that, during the recent China-Central Asia summit, the presidents of China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan discussed expanded cooperation on natural gas and minerals, and the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Central Asian countries are engaging with Beijing on critical topics like energy and minerals, and pursuing concrete projects in these areas, while Washington remains stuck in conversation. The forum attempted to game out how Washington, once again under Donald Trump's leadership, will engage Central Asia. Curtis, a former National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia (2017-2021), explained that the new Trump administration is still in its early days, and 'we haven't heard about Central Asia' in the U.S. capital yet. She argued that 'the China angle will dictate' U.S. engagement in Central Asia, with a focus on 'mostly economic but also political, and maybe security' issues. Gfoeller was more pessimistic, hypothesizing that Washington won't fully engage Central Asia 'unless President Trump sees that there is a specific reason to engage with a particular country.' The terms 'transactional' and 'realistic' were used often to describe how Washington may engage Central Asia for the next four years. For comparison's sake, Xi talked about 'mutual respect, mutual trust and mutual benefit' at the recent summit in Astana. The Biden administration maintained momentum in Central Asia-U.S. engagement with highlights including a historic presidential 5+1 meeting in 2023, a business-oriented B5+1 in Almaty and the launch of the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue in 2024. (I have proposed a Green 5+1 to promote engagement on environmental issues.) During his confirmation hearing, Rubio noted the need to repeal the Jackson Vanik amendment – a topic mentioned by Ashikbayev at the forum – however, that requires Congressional legislation and previous efforts have stalled in committee. In spite of this promising statement, we have yet to see the formulation of a strategy or even direct interest in Central Asia on the part of the administration. Another topic discussed were potential trips by senior U.S. officials to Central Asia. Miras Zhiyenbayev, advisor to the chairman of the board for international affairs and initiatives at Kazakhstan's Maqsut Narikbayev University, noted that 'high-level visits are political acts that demonstrate a country's willingness to work with the region and engage with the region.' As noted above, in recent weeks, there were several high-level visits and meetings by European officials and China's president to Central Asia. A visit by Rubio to Astana for a ministerial 5+1 would help jumpstart the new administration's momentum in the region, but so far no such meeting has been announced. Overall, the speakers at the forum agreed on the importance of increased U.S. engagement with Central Asia. 'The United States has a great opportunity to engage more in Central Asia. The Central Asians want the U.S. there,' Curtis argued. Gfoeller said, 'I recently met with a high-level Central Asian official who told me that he welcomed what he thought would be a more transactional approach from the Trump administration. She added that the official 'said that during the Biden administration, we were lectured to about climate change, about human rights, and it was just lecturing and never was anything concrete done to benefit our country.' Former U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan Daniel Rosenblum, moderating the panel, pushed back on that assessment, illustrating a diversity of perspectives on the tone and perception of U.S. engagement. Respecting the will and well-being of the people of Central Asia was a topic that the Atlantic Council's forum did not discuss in great detail. Navbahor Imamova, a longtime journalist with Voice of America, said on social media that the region's 'nontransparent and nepotistic regimes, marked by a lack of rule of law and media freedom,' should have been addressed. That label certainly applies to authoritarian Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and increasingly Kyrgyzstan. Finally, it is vital to acknowledge that the five Central Asian states differ regarding their foreign policy objectives, engagement styles, and domestic governance. Indeed, of the five states, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are clearly very interested in increasing engagement and cooperation with Washington, and have the capacity to do so. Two days before the forum, Kazakhstan's Ashikbayev spoke at the Future Resilience Forum about Kazakhstan as a middle power, an event also held in the U.S. capital. 'The more partnerships we have, the better it will be for our own development,' the Kazakhstani diplomat summarized at the Atlantic Council event. Similarly, Uzbekistan routinely sends delegations to Washington. However, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan's footprint in Washington is much more limited, with Turkmenistan's engagement in the U.S. capital almost non-existent. A lack of a strategy with short-, medium- and long-term goals and projects toward Central Asia continues to be Washington's loss, and Beijing's gain.
Express Tribune
08-03-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
IS-K terrorist's capture may reset Pak-US ties: Curtis
The arrest and extradition of the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) terrorist behind the August 26, 2021, deadly attack on US Marines underscores the importance of the US-Pakistan counterterrorism partnership and could serve as a "building block" to restore bilateral ties. In an interview with VOA Deewa Services, Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS), described the development as an important step. "I think this could be sort of a building block, to reset the US-Pakistan relationship – a very important step – and obviously President [Donald] Trump mentioned it in his statement to the joint session of US Congress," she noted. Curtis was referring to capture of Mohammad Sharifullah, also known as "Jafar," by Pakistani agencies who is accused of masterminding the Abbey Gate bombing at the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul which killed 13 American servicemen and roughly 170 Afghans. President Trump broke the news of Sharifullah's capture Tuesday night in a speech to Congress on Capitol Hill. "Tonight, I am pleased to announce that we have just apprehended the top terrorist responsible for that atrocity," Trump said. The US president hailed Pakistan for helping with Sharifullah's arrest. "And I want to thank, especially, the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster," the US president said. Recalling the strained US-Pakistan relations under President Joe Biden, Lisa Curtis dismissed the claims made by Jon Finer – who served as Biden's principal deputy national security advisor – that Pakistan's weapons programme was directed at the US. Instead, she pointed out that Pakistan's strategic focus remained on countering India due to its history of three wars. "Pakistan's strategic programmes are driven by the desire to pace with India's programmes ... with India, it has three wars, so this is the opportunity to reset the relationship between the Trump administration and Pakistan." Curtis, who served in Donald Trump's first administration as the senior director for South and Central Asia in the National Security Council, suggested that US foreign policy should recognise the new geopolitical landscape. She stressed that "we are in a new era". With no US troops in Afghanistan, the primary concern was now strategic competition with China as it is not in Washington's interest for Islamabad to become entirely dependent on Beijing. "The major issue is strategic competition with China, and it's not in the United States interests for Pakistan to completely dependent on China. We want Pakistan to have options, alternatives," she emphasised. While reinstating military aid at levels seen after 9/11 was unlikely, the countries could tap into potential areas of cooperation, particularly in the IT sector, critical minerals and other mutual economic interests. The senior fellow at the DC think-tank reckoned that while a formal alliance or strategic partnership may not be on the table, fostering a cordial relationship with Pakistan in key areas of mutual benefit remains an option. "There are opportunities they [the US and Pakistan] can cooperate when there is mutual interest in IT sector, critical minerals." Regarding Pakistan's long-standing ties with China, she noted that Islamabad sought balanced relations and did not want to be wholly reliant on Beijing. "They [Islamabad] would prefer to have a good relationship with the United States, so again that is to the United States' benefit, so certainly it's not in the interest of the United States to see Pakistan you know fully dependent on China," Curtis said. She added the US did not want to see a worsening of Beijing's historical ties with Islamabad or even a deepening of the relations. "All I am saying is that the United States does not want to see China's relations with Pakistan are worsened or deepened, not so deepened where China finds a military outpost in Pakistan," she added.
Yahoo
13-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Modi Seeks to Dodge Trump's Trade Wrath in White House Summit
(Bloomberg) -- Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks global trade. Sign up here. Why American Mobility Ground to a Halt Saudi Arabia's Neom Signs $5 Billion Deal for AI Data Center SpaceX Bid to Turn Texas Starbase Into City Is Set for Vote in May Cutting Arena Subsidies Can Help Cover Tax Cuts, Think Tank Says When Prime Minister Narendra Modi last met President Donald Trump five years ago, the US leader stood before a crowd of 100,000 cheering Indians in Modi's home state of Gujarat and declared: 'America will always be faithful and loyal friends to the Indian people.' Modi is likely to find the US president in a decidedly less celebratory mood when the two leaders meet in Washington Thursday. The head of the world's most populous nation faces a minefield in negotiations with Trump, who has signaled that India remains a potential tariff target despite a deepening partnership between the two countries. Modi has rolled out a series of concessions to Trump in an effort to mollify the US leader and preserve his nation's access to its largest trading partner. In the last few weeks, India has slashed tariffs on items from motorcycles to luxury cars, agreed to take planeloads of undocumented migrants and pushed to ramp up purchases of US energy. 'Prime Minister Modi knows that Trump's priorities are deportations of illegal Indians and India's high tariffs, so Modi has prepared for this, and he is seeking to preempt Trump's anger over these issues,' said Lisa Curtis, a former Trump aide who directs the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Read: Modi Returns to US With Lost Clout as Stock, Economic Boom Fades That may not be enough. Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs on India in return for its high levies on US goods and he's vowed to soon enact 'reciprocity' on all nations when it comes to import duties — a move that would hit India harder than most major trade partners. Underscoring that view, top Trump economic aide Kevin Hassett told CNBC this week that India's tariffs on US imports were 'enormously high' and said Modi 'has got a lot to talk about with the president.' And White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday she expected the tariffs to be announced before Modi visited the White House. 'It's very simple logic as to why the President wants to impose reciprocal tariffs,' Leavitt said. 'It's the golden rule, which we all learned when we were growing up in school, treat others the way you want to be treated.' Modi arrived in Washington on Wednesday and met with Trump's newly confirmed Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, with the two discussing bilateral intelligence cooperation, according to a readout from India's External Affairs Ministry. Modi is set to meet with Trump in the Oval Office on Thursday afternoon. India's stock market slumped ahead of Modi's meeting with Trump, with the MSCI India Index on Wednesday touching its lowest level since early June, taking its losses for the week to as much as 4.6%. Some in Modi's administration are concerned that his early overtures may not yield much from the new president, and say it's not clear what, if anything, Trump is seeking from New Delhi, people familiar with the matter said. They also worry that India has few backers among immigration and foreign policy hardliners in Trump's government, in particular on the issue of H-1B visas for skilled workers, they said. Read: Why Trump's Inner Circle Is So Divided on H-1B Visas: QuickTake The unease underscores the stakes for India going into Thursday's meeting. Modi is among the earliest batch of foreign leaders to meet with Trump since he returned to office, and their summit follows a series of personal phone calls and lower-level meetings between their governments. 'President Trump and Prime Minister Modi are focused on deepening the US-India strategic partnership across defense, energy, technology and fair trade,' said Brian Hughes, a US National Security Council spokesman, in a statement, adding that the leaders share 'warm ties.' India's Ministry of External Affairs didn't immediately respond to an email seeking further information. Another issue hanging over the gathering that might not be formally discussed is the US allegations of bribery leveled during the Biden administration against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, a close associate of Modi. Adani has denied the charges, and it now rests with Trump's Justice Department to determine how aggressively to pursue the case. Read: Adani Builds US Influence Machine While Trump Reins in DOJ Cases For all their differences, there's little doubt that India has become an increasingly important partner for the US, especially when it comes to pushing back on China. American companies including Apple Inc. and Starbucks Corp. have turned to India as an engine of growth or as an alternative to having supply chains moored to China. India is also an active partner with the US, Australia and Japan in the 'Quad,' an informal bloc with shared economic and security interests that often draws Beijing's criticism. At the same time, India is a leader of the so-called Global South, particularly through the BRICS grouping with Brazil, Russia and South Africa that is frequently at odds with US priorities. And India continues to be a major buyer of Russian oil and weaponry. Read: India Is Building a Sanctions-Proof Supply Chain for Russian Oil Despite all that, ties with India have generally received bipartisan support in Washington and the US president has been seen positively in India. Trump's 2020 visit — billed 'Namaste, Trump' — received blanket coverage in the Indian media, and was preceded a year earlier by a trip Modi took to Houston dubbed 'Howdy, Modi.' But Trump has long used trade balances as a lens for rendering judgment on other nations, and that tendency isn't likely to change. The $41 billion US trade deficit with India in 2023 put it 10th overall, just behind South Korea. On the campaign trail, Trump said India was a 'very big abuser' of its trade ties with the US. Modi is going into this week's meeting prepared to discuss further reducing India's import duties, as well as purchasing more energy and defense equipment from the US, Bloomberg News has reported. Harsh Shringla, a former Indian ambassador to the US and former Indian foreign secretary, signaled that's the approach most likely to resonate with Trump. 'The way out of this is to provide the United States a window that would enable it to get a better access to the Indian market, and vice versa,' he said. --With assistance from Justin Sink, Akayla Gardner, Shruti Srivastava, Hadriana Lowenkron and Josh Wingrove. (Adds details of Modi's arrival in Washington in paragraph 10 and link to X post) Elon Musk's DOGE Is a Force Americans Can't Afford to Ignore The Game Changer: How Ely Callaway Remade Golf How Oura's Smart Ring Bridged the Gap From Tech Bros to Normies Why Fast Food Could Be MAHA's Next Target Trump's Tariffs Make Currency Trading Cool Again After Years of Decline ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
