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Wall Street Journal
5 days ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Attacks ‘Effectively Destroyed' Iran's Program
This is an excerpt from 'Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities' published June 24 by David Albright and Spencer Faragasso of the Institute for Science and International Security. After 12 days of military operations, a survey of the resulting damage is appropriate. . . . Overall, Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack. That being said, there are residuals such as stocks of 60%, 20%, and 3-5% enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.
Free Malaysia Today
6 days ago
- Politics
- Free Malaysia Today
Satellite images indicate severe damage to Fordow, but doubts remain
A satellite image shows craters and ash on a ridge above Iran's Fordow underground uranium site following US airstrikes. (EPA Images pic) WASHINGTON : Commercial satellite imagery indicates the US attack on Iran's Fordow nuclear plant severely damaged – and possibly destroyed – the deeply-buried site and the uranium-enriching centrifuges it housed, but there was no confirmation, experts said on Sunday. 'They just punched through with these MOPs,' said David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, referring to the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-busting bombs that the US said it dropped. 'I would expect that the facility is probably toast.' But confirmation of the below-ground destruction could not be determined, noted Decker Eveleth, an associate researcher with the CNA Corporation who specialises in satellite imagery. The hall containing hundreds of centrifuges is 'too deeply buried for us to evaluate the level of damage based on satellite imagery,' he said. To defend against attacks such as the one conducted by US forces early on Sunday, Iran buried much of its nuclear programme in fortified sites deep underground, including into the side of a mountain at Fordow. Satellite images show six holes where the bunker-busting bombs appear to have penetrated the mountain, and then ground that looks disturbed and covered in dust. The US and Israel have said they intend to halt Tehran's nuclear programme. But a failure to completely destroy its facilities and equipment could mean Iran could more easily restart the weapons program that US intelligence and the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say it shuttered in 2003. 'Unususal activity' Several experts also cautioned that Iran likely moved a stockpile of near weapons-grade highly enriched uranium out of Fordow before the strike early Sunday morning and could be hiding it and other nuclear components in locations unknown to Israel, the US and UN nuclear inspectors. They noted satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showing 'unusual activity' at Fordow on Thursday and Friday, with a long line of vehicles waiting outside an entrance of the facility. A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Sunday most of the near weapons-grade 60% highly enriched uranium had been moved to an undisclosed location before the US attack. 'I don't think you can with great confidence do anything but set back their nuclear programme by maybe a few years,' said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. 'There's almost certainly facilities that we don't know about.' Arizona senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat and member of the senate intelligence committee who said he had been reviewing intelligence every day, expressed the same concern. 'My big fear right now is that they take this entire programme underground, not physically underground, but under the radar,' he told NBC News. 'Where we tried to stop it, there is a possibility that this could accelerate it.' Iran long has insisted that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes. But in response to Israel's attacks, Iran's parliament is threatening to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the cornerstone of the international system that went into force in 1970 to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, ending cooperation with the IAEA. 'The world is going to be in the dark about what Iran may be doing,' said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association advocacy group. 'Double tap' Reuters spoke to four experts who reviewed Maxar Technologies satellite imagery of Fordow showing six neatly spaced holes in two groups in the mountain ridge beneath which the hall containing the centrifuges is believed to be located. General Dan Caine, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, told reporters that seven B-2 bombers dropped 14 GBU-57/B MOPs, 30,000-pound precision-guided bombs designed to drive up to 200 feet into hardened underground facilities like Fordow, according to a 2012 congressional report. Caine said initial assessments indicated that the sites suffered extremely severe damage, but declined to speculate about whether any nuclear facilities remained intact. Eveleth said the Maxar imagery of Fordow and Caine's comments indicated that the B-2s dropped an initial load of six MOPs on Fordow, followed by a 'double tap' of six more in the exact same spots. Operation Midnight Hammer also targeted Tehran's main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, he said, and struck in Isfahan, the location of the country's largest nuclear research centre. There are other nuclear-related sites near the city. Israel had already struck Natanz and the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center in its 10-day war with Iran. Albright said in a post on X that Airbus Defence and Space satellite imagery showed that US Tomahawk cruise missiles severely damaged a uranium facility at Isfahan and an impact hole above the underground enrichment halls at Natanz reportedly caused by a Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-busting bomb that 'likely destroyed the facility.' Albright questioned the US use of cruise missiles in Isfahan, saying that those weapons could not penetrate a tunnel complex near the main nuclear research centre believed to be even deeper than Fordow. The IAEA said the tunnel entrances 'were impacted.' He noted that Iran recently informed the IAEA that it planned to install a new uranium enrichment plant in Isfahan. 'There may be 2,000 to 3,000 more centrifuges that were slated to go into this new enrichment plant,' he said. 'Where are they?'
Wall Street Journal
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Iran Is Down, but Not Yet Out
As Israel's mission to destroy Iran's nuclear capacity continues, a grave and obvious question confronts us: How did the West, the U.S. in particular, allow Tehran's nuclear threat to grow unchecked for so long? David Albright, an American physicist and nuclear-weapons tracker, is among the world's foremost experts on Iran's nuclear program. He's president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution that focuses on the spread of nuclear weapons to rogue nations and terrorists. On June 12, the day before the first Israeli attack, Iran could 'make enough weapon-grade uranium for 11 nuclear weapons within a month,' Mr. Albright says. Pre-attack Iran was on track to have enough highly enriched uranium for 22 weapons in five months.
Khaleej Times
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Khaleej Times
Damage to Iranian nuclear sites so far appears limited, experts say
US President Donald Trump told Reuters on Friday it was unclear whether Iran still has a nuclear program following Israeli strikes, but experts say the damage to the country's nuclear facilities so far has appeared limited. Israel's attacks succeeded in killing Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists and striking military command and control facilities and air defenses, but satellite imagery did not yet show significant damage to nuclear infrastructure, several experts said. "The first day was aimed at things that you would get through surprise - killing leadership, going after nuclear scientists, air defense systems, the ability to retaliate," said nuclear expert David Albright at the Institute for Science and International Security. "We can't see any visible damage at Fordow or Isfahan. There was damage at Natanz," said Albright, referring to Iranian nuclear sites. But "there's no evidence that the underground site was destroyed." UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told the Security Council on Friday that the above-ground pilot enrichment plant at Iran's Natanz nuclear site had been destroyed and Iran had reported attacks on Fordow and Isfahan. Grossi said electricity infrastructure at Natanz was also destroyed and the loss of power to a cascade hall may have damaged centrifuges there. But he said the level of radioactivity outside Natanz remained unchanged and normal. The sprawling Natanz nuclear complex is Iran's main uranium enrichment facility. The site includes a vast underground uranium enrichment plant and a smaller, above-ground pilot enrichment plant. In a telephone interview with Reuters, Trump said it was unclear whether Iran still has a nuclear program following the Israeli strikes. "Nobody knows," Trump said. "It was a very devastating hit." Two regional sources said at least 20 Iranian military commanders were killed in the attack, a stunning decapitation reminiscent of Israeli attacks that swiftly wiped out the leadership of Lebanon's once-feared Hezbollah militia last year. Iran also said six of its top nuclear scientists were killed. Albright said his analysis was based on the latest available images from about 11.20am Tehran time (0750 GMT). He added there may also have been drone strikes on tunnels to underground centrifuge plants and cyber attacks that did not leave visible traces. "In terms of visible damage, we don't see much and we'll see what happens tonight," he said, adding that he believes Israel's strikes were still in an early stage. Albright said the status of Iran's stocks of enriched uranium was not known and that it was possible Israel had avoided major attacks on nuclear sites due to concerns about harming international inspectors who were there. Albright said there were thousands of centrifuges at the underground plant at Natanz and knocking out the electrical supply would bring into play a backup battery system. He said it was likely that Iran was shutting down the centrifuges at the underground site in a controlled manner, which was a big operation. "Batteries ... last a while, but eventually they will run out and if the centrifuges spin down in an uncontrollable manner, a lot will break," he said. Israel warns of prolonged operation Israel said it targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders at the start of what would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Military and nuclear experts said that even with massive firepower, military action would probably only temporarily set back a program the West fears is already aimed at producing atom bombs one day, although Iran denies it. Jeffrey Lewis, a non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said damage at the Natanz facility appeared "moderate." "Israel destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, as well as some support buildings associated with power supply," he said. Lewis added Israel also hit a support building - possibly for power supply - near two underground nuclear enrichment facilities. "The underground enrichment halls, as well as the large underground facility nearby in the mountains, do not appear damaged." It was unclear what damage was sustained at the key Fordow nuclear facility, which could be used to develop nuclear weapons and is buried deep underground. "It has always been the conventional wisdom that Israel may not have the ordnance to destroy Fordow without American military support," Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told a podcast. The United States is better equipped than Israel to destroy such targets with its most powerful bunker buster bombs, the 30,000-pound (14,000 kg) Massive Ordnance Penetrator. If Iran decides not to negotiate a nuclear deal, the U.S. could use its B2 bombers and those bombs to destroy Fordow, Dubowitz said. Decker Eveleth, a strategic analyst with the CAN Corp research group, said the overall aim of Israel's campaign was still unclear. "They may be successful at dismantling Iranian command and control, destroying air forces (and) hitting a variety of targets related to the Iranian missile program," he said. "(But) if their core objective is prevention of a nuclear breakout, can they destroy enough of Iran's nuclear infrastructure to actually prevent that from happening?"
Japan Times
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Damage to Iranian nuclear sites so far appears limited, experts say
U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday it was unclear whether Iran still has a nuclear program following Israeli strikes, but experts say the damage to the country's nuclear facilities so far has appeared limited. Israel's attacks succeeded in killing Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists and striking military command and control facilities and air defenses, but satellite imagery did not yet show significant damage to nuclear infrastructure, several experts said. "The first day was aimed at things that you would get through surprise — killing leadership, going after nuclear scientists, air defense systems, the ability to retaliate," said nuclear expert David Albright at the Institute for Science and International Security. "We can't see any visible damage at Fordow or Isfahan. There was damage at Natanz," said Albright, referring to Iranian nuclear sites. But "there's no evidence that the underground site was destroyed." U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told the Security Council on Friday that the above-ground pilot enrichment plant at Iran's Natanz nuclear site had been destroyed and Iran had reported attacks on Fordow and Isfahan. Grossi said electricity infrastructure at Natanz was also destroyed and the loss of power to a cascade hall may have damaged centrifuges there. But he said the level of radioactivity outside Natanz remained unchanged and normal. The sprawling Natanz nuclear complex is Iran's main uranium enrichment facility. The site includes a vast underground uranium enrichment plant and a smaller, above-ground pilot enrichment plant. In a telephone interview, Trump said it was unclear whether Iran still has a nuclear program following the Israeli strikes. "Nobody knows," Trump said. "It was a very devastating hit." Two regional sources said at least 20 Iranian military commanders were killed in the attack, a stunning decapitation reminiscent of Israeli attacks that swiftly wiped out the leadership of Lebanon's once-feared Hezbollah militia last year. Iran also said six of its top nuclear scientists were killed. Albright said his analysis was based on the latest available images from about 11:20 a.m. Tehran time. He added there may also have been drone strikes on tunnels to underground centrifuge plants and cyberattacks that did not leave visible traces. "In terms of visible damage, we don't see much and we'll see what happens tonight," he said, adding that he believes Israel's strikes were still in an early stage. Albright said the status of Iran's stocks of enriched uranium was not known and that it was possible Israel had avoided major attacks on nuclear sites due to concerns about harming international inspectors who were there. Albright said there were thousands of centrifuges at the underground plant at Natanz and knocking out the electrical supply would bring into play a backup battery system. He said it was likely that Iran was shutting down the centrifuges at the underground site in a controlled manner, which was a big operation. "Batteries ... last a while, but eventually they will run out and if the centrifuges spin down in an uncontrollable manner, a lot will break," he said. Israel said it targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders at the start of what would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Military and nuclear experts said that even with massive firepower, military action would probably only temporarily set back a program the West fears is already aimed at producing atom bombs one day, although Iran denies it. Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said damage at the Natanz facility appeared "moderate." "Israel destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, as well as some support buildings associated with power supply," he said. Lewis added Israel also hit a support building — possibly for power supply — near two underground nuclear enrichment facilities. "The underground enrichment halls, as well as the large underground facility nearby in the mountains, do not appear damaged." It was unclear what damage was sustained at the key Fordow nuclear facility, which could be used to develop nuclear weapons and is buried deep underground. "It has always been the conventional wisdom that Israel may not have the ordnance to destroy Fordow without American military support," Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told a podcast. The United States is better equipped than Israel to destroy such targets with its most powerful bunker buster bombs, the 30,000-pound (14,000 kg) Massive Ordnance Penetrator. If Iran decides not to negotiate a nuclear deal, the U.S. could use its B2 bombers and those bombs to destroy Fordow, Dubowitz said. Decker Eveleth, a strategic analyst with the CAN Corp. research group, said the overall aim of Israel's campaign was still unclear. "They may be successful at dismantling Iranian command and control, destroying air forces (and) hitting a variety of targets related to the Iranian missile program," he said. "(But) if their core objective is prevention of a nuclear breakout, can they destroy enough of Iran's nuclear infrastructure to actually prevent that from happening?"
