Latest news with #InstituteForTheStudyOfWar
Yahoo
a day ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms – but Kyiv won't be celebrating
For months the talk in Kyiv was of a much-anticipated Russian offensive that would aim to gobble up more of the Ukraine's eastern regions. So far, it's been underwhelming – but the Russians have made some gains and vastly reinforced their troop numbers in some areas. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue territorial gains as ceasefire talks take a back seat. Last week he restated what has long been one of his key ways of justifying his unprovoked invasion. 'I consider the Russian and Ukrainian peoples to be one people,' he said. 'In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.' Even so, the Ukrainians have launched counterattacks in some areas and are rapidly developing a domestic weapons industry. And Russia's wartime economy is facing stronger headwinds. Russian troops are trying to advance in multiple areas of the 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) frontline. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week there are now 111,000 Russian troops in one part of the frontline alone – near the flashpoint city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, where there are at least 50 clashes every day. That compares to about 70,000 Russian troops in the area last December, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Syrskyi also claimed that the Russian infiltration of the northern region of Sumy had been halted. The Institute for the Study of War – a Washington-based think-tank, says Ukrainian forces have regained some territory in Sumy and the pace of Russian advances there has slowed. 'We can say that the wave of attempts at a 'summer offensive' launched by the enemy from Russian territory is fizzling out,' Syrskyi claimed. But it's a mixed picture. In recent days Russian infantry assaults have gained ground on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The Russian defense ministry claimed on Saturday that another village, Zirka, had been taken. DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source analyst, asserted that Ukrainian 'defenses continue to collapse rapidly, and the enemy is making significant advances … with constant assaults' in that area. The Kremlin has long insisted its campaign will continue until it holds all of the eastern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (It already occupies all but a sliver of Luhansk). At the current rate of progress that would take many years. But with the Trump administration apparently less committed to driving ceasefire negotiations, the conflict seems likely to drag on through the end of the year and into 2026. The three-dimensional battlefield is now an unlikely combination of ingenious drone-led special operations and very basic infantry assaults. At one end of the spectrum, Ukraine's audacious attacks at the beginning of June on Russian strategic bombers used drones operated from trucks deep inside Russian territory – a mission that took out about a dozen aircraft used to launch missiles against Ukraine. Ukraine's Security Service reported another drone attack Saturday that it clamed had caused extensive damage to a Russian airbase in Crimea. By contrast, Russian soldiers on foot and motorbikes – sometimes in groups of a dozen or less – push into abandoned villages in eastern Ukraine, with drones for cover but no armor in site. It's an approach that is forcing a change in Ukrainian tactics: to smaller fortified positions. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last week that defenses were being camouflaged to match the terrain and made smaller to avoid detection. While infantry defend or take territory, drones continue to play a greater role in shaping the conflict. The Russians are churning out cheap, mass-produced drones designed to overwhelm air defenses and allow some of their missiles to get through. The Russians have increasingly used this tactic to hit Ukrainian cities, especially Kyiv, which has sustained considerable damage and higher civilian casualties in recent weeks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that overnight '477 drones were in our skies, most of them Russian-Iranian Shaheds, along with 60 missiles of various types. The Russians were targeting everything that sustains life.' The Russians use 'up to 500 (Iranian designed) Shaheds per night, combining them with ballistic and cruise missiles — aiming to exhaust our air defenses,' says Umerov. Zelensky has reiterated pleas for more Patriot missile batteries and other western systems, which Trump said last week that the US 'should consider' because of large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities. Zelensky has said Ukraine is prepared to buy Patriots directly or through the fund established by the US-Ukrainian minerals deal. Both sides are producing drones of all types at an astonishing rate. Ukraine's Security Service reckons Russia is producing nearly 200 Iranian-designed Shahed drones every day, and has an inventory of some 6,000, in addition to about 6,000 decoy drones. Over the last week, the Russians have used more than 23,000 small 'kamikaze' drones on the frontlines, according to the Ukrainian military's General Staff. It's a never-ending race in design and production. Syrskyi said recently that Russia had developed an edge in fiber-optic-controlled drones, which are more difficult to track and intercept. Drone warfare is a 'constant intellectual struggle — the enemy regularly changed algorithms, and Ukraine adapted tactics in response,' Umerov said. 'Solutions that showed high effectiveness at the beginning of the war have lost it over time as the enemy changed tactics.' For its part, Ukraine is stepping up production of the long-range drones it has used to attack Russian infrastructure, such as airfields, refineries and transport. Umerov said 'tens of thousands' would be produced, in addition to more than four million battlefield drones this year. Both sides continue to build defense industries that allow them to keep fighting – even if the scale of Russian production far outstrips that of Ukraine. Russia's huge military conglomerate Rostec is producing an estimated 80% of the equipment used against Ukraine. Its CEO Sergey Chemezov claimed at a meeting with Putin this month that Rostec's production has grown tenfold since 2021, and its revenues rose last year to an eye-watering $46 billion. But there are darkening clouds on the horizon. Russia's military budget is some 40% of its total public spending – more than 6% of its GDP. That's stoked inflation, and Putin acknowledged last week that growth this year would be 'much more modest' to combat rising prices. He even suggested that defense spending would decline next year. One senior Russian official, Maksim Reshetnikov, who is Economic Development minister, said that 'based on current business sentiment, it seems to me we are on the brink of transitioning into recession.' The head of Russia's Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, disagreed with Reshetnikov but warned that financial buffers like the national reserve fund are nearly depleted. 'We must understand that many of these resources have been used up,' she told the St. Petersburg International Forum. Putin himself acknowledged the risk, saying that while some experts predicted stagnation, it should 'not be allowed under any circumstances.' While the longer-term prognosis for Russia may be gloomy – economically and demographically – it can continue in the short-term to fund an army of more than half-a-million men that's in Ukraine or close to its border, taking a few kilometers here and there. Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian military can still generate forces far greater than Ukraine. His eye still very much on the prize, Putin said last week: 'We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.'
Yahoo
a day ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms – but Kyiv won't be celebrating
For months the talk in Kyiv was of a much-anticipated Russian offensive that would aim to gobble up more of the Ukraine's eastern regions. So far, it's been underwhelming – but the Russians have made some gains and vastly reinforced their troop numbers in some areas. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue territorial gains as ceasefire talks take a back seat. Last week he restated what has long been one of his key ways of justifying his unprovoked invasion. 'I consider the Russian and Ukrainian peoples to be one people,' he said. 'In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.' Even so, the Ukrainians have launched counterattacks in some areas and are rapidly developing a domestic weapons industry. And Russia's wartime economy is facing stronger headwinds. Russian troops are trying to advance in multiple areas of the 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) frontline. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week there are now 111,000 Russian troops in one part of the frontline alone – near the flashpoint city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, where there are at least 50 clashes every day. That compares to about 70,000 Russian troops in the area last December, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Syrskyi also claimed that the Russian infiltration of the northern region of Sumy had been halted. The Institute for the Study of War – a Washington-based think-tank, says Ukrainian forces have regained some territory in Sumy and the pace of Russian advances there has slowed. 'We can say that the wave of attempts at a 'summer offensive' launched by the enemy from Russian territory is fizzling out,' Syrskyi claimed. But it's a mixed picture. In recent days Russian infantry assaults have gained ground on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The Russian defense ministry claimed on Saturday that another village, Zirka, had been taken. DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source analyst, asserted that Ukrainian 'defenses continue to collapse rapidly, and the enemy is making significant advances … with constant assaults' in that area. The Kremlin has long insisted its campaign will continue until it holds all of the eastern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (It already occupies all but a sliver of Luhansk). At the current rate of progress that would take many years. But with the Trump administration apparently less committed to driving ceasefire negotiations, the conflict seems likely to drag on through the end of the year and into 2026. The three-dimensional battlefield is now an unlikely combination of ingenious drone-led special operations and very basic infantry assaults. At one end of the spectrum, Ukraine's audacious attacks at the beginning of June on Russian strategic bombers used drones operated from trucks deep inside Russian territory – a mission that took out about a dozen aircraft used to launch missiles against Ukraine. Ukraine's Security Service reported another drone attack Saturday that it clamed had caused extensive damage to a Russian airbase in Crimea. By contrast, Russian soldiers on foot and motorbikes – sometimes in groups of a dozen or less – push into abandoned villages in eastern Ukraine, with drones for cover but no armor in site. It's an approach that is forcing a change in Ukrainian tactics: to smaller fortified positions. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last week that defenses were being camouflaged to match the terrain and made smaller to avoid detection. While infantry defend or take territory, drones continue to play a greater role in shaping the conflict. The Russians are churning out cheap, mass-produced drones designed to overwhelm air defenses and allow some of their missiles to get through. The Russians have increasingly used this tactic to hit Ukrainian cities, especially Kyiv, which has sustained considerable damage and higher civilian casualties in recent weeks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that overnight '477 drones were in our skies, most of them Russian-Iranian Shaheds, along with 60 missiles of various types. The Russians were targeting everything that sustains life.' The Russians use 'up to 500 (Iranian designed) Shaheds per night, combining them with ballistic and cruise missiles — aiming to exhaust our air defenses,' says Umerov. Zelensky has reiterated pleas for more Patriot missile batteries and other western systems, which Trump said last week that the US 'should consider' because of large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities. Zelensky has said Ukraine is prepared to buy Patriots directly or through the fund established by the US-Ukrainian minerals deal. Both sides are producing drones of all types at an astonishing rate. Ukraine's Security Service reckons Russia is producing nearly 200 Iranian-designed Shahed drones every day, and has an inventory of some 6,000, in addition to about 6,000 decoy drones. Over the last week, the Russians have used more than 23,000 small 'kamikaze' drones on the frontlines, according to the Ukrainian military's General Staff. It's a never-ending race in design and production. Syrskyi said recently that Russia had developed an edge in fiber-optic-controlled drones, which are more difficult to track and intercept. Drone warfare is a 'constant intellectual struggle — the enemy regularly changed algorithms, and Ukraine adapted tactics in response,' Umerov said. 'Solutions that showed high effectiveness at the beginning of the war have lost it over time as the enemy changed tactics.' For its part, Ukraine is stepping up production of the long-range drones it has used to attack Russian infrastructure, such as airfields, refineries and transport. Umerov said 'tens of thousands' would be produced, in addition to more than four million battlefield drones this year. Both sides continue to build defense industries that allow them to keep fighting – even if the scale of Russian production far outstrips that of Ukraine. Russia's huge military conglomerate Rostec is producing an estimated 80% of the equipment used against Ukraine. Its CEO Sergey Chemezov claimed at a meeting with Putin this month that Rostec's production has grown tenfold since 2021, and its revenues rose last year to an eye-watering $46 billion. But there are darkening clouds on the horizon. Russia's military budget is some 40% of its total public spending – more than 6% of its GDP. That's stoked inflation, and Putin acknowledged last week that growth this year would be 'much more modest' to combat rising prices. He even suggested that defense spending would decline next year. One senior Russian official, Maksim Reshetnikov, who is Economic Development minister, said that 'based on current business sentiment, it seems to me we are on the brink of transitioning into recession.' The head of Russia's Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, disagreed with Reshetnikov but warned that financial buffers like the national reserve fund are nearly depleted. 'We must understand that many of these resources have been used up,' she told the St. Petersburg International Forum. Putin himself acknowledged the risk, saying that while some experts predicted stagnation, it should 'not be allowed under any circumstances.' While the longer-term prognosis for Russia may be gloomy – economically and demographically – it can continue in the short-term to fund an army of more than half-a-million men that's in Ukraine or close to its border, taking a few kilometers here and there. Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian military can still generate forces far greater than Ukraine. His eye still very much on the prize, Putin said last week: 'We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.'
CNN
a day ago
- Politics
- CNN
Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms – but Kyiv won't be celebrating
For months the talk in Kyiv was of a much-anticipated Russian offensive that would aim to gobble up more of the Ukraine's eastern regions. So far, it's been underwhelming – but the Russians have made some gains and vastly reinforced their troop numbers in some areas. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue territorial gains as ceasefire talks take a back seat. Last week he restated what has long been one of his key ways of justifying his unprovoked invasion. 'I consider the Russian and Ukrainian peoples to be one people,' he said. 'In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.' Even so, the Ukrainians have launched counterattacks in some areas and are rapidly developing a domestic weapons industry. And Russia's wartime economy is facing stronger headwinds. Russian troops are trying to advance in multiple areas of the 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) frontline. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week there are now 111,000 Russian troops in one part of the frontline alone – near the flashpoint city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, where there are at least 50 clashes every day. That compares to about 70,000 Russian troops in the area last December, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Syrskyi also claimed that the Russian infiltration of the northern region of Sumy had been halted. The Institute for the Study of War – a Washington-based think-tank, says Ukrainian forces have regained some territory in Sumy and the pace of Russian advances there has slowed. 'We can say that the wave of attempts at a 'summer offensive' launched by the enemy from Russian territory is fizzling out,' Syrskyi claimed. But it's a mixed picture. In recent days Russian infantry assaults have gained ground on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The Russian defense ministry claimed on Saturday that another village, Zirka, had been taken. DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source analyst, asserted that Ukrainian 'defenses continue to collapse rapidly, and the enemy is making significant advances … with constant assaults' in that area. The Kremlin has long insisted its campaign will continue until it holds all of the eastern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (It already occupies all but a sliver of Luhansk). At the current rate of progress that would take many years. But with the Trump administration apparently less committed to driving ceasefire negotiations, the conflict seems likely to drag on through the end of the year and into 2026. The three-dimensional battlefield is now an unlikely combination of ingenious drone-led special operations and very basic infantry assaults. At one end of the spectrum, Ukraine's audacious attacks at the beginning of June on Russian strategic bombers used drones operated from trucks deep inside Russian territory – a mission that took out about a dozen aircraft used to launch missiles against Ukraine. Ukraine's Security Service reported another drone attack Saturday that it clamed had caused extensive damage to a Russian airbase in Crimea. By contrast, Russian soldiers on foot and motorbikes – sometimes in groups of a dozen or less – push into abandoned villages in eastern Ukraine, with drones for cover but no armor in site. It's an approach that is forcing a change in Ukrainian tactics: to smaller fortified positions. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last week that defenses were being camouflaged to match the terrain and made smaller to avoid detection. While infantry defend or take territory, drones continue to play a greater role in shaping the conflict. The Russians are churning out cheap, mass-produced drones designed to overwhelm air defenses and allow some of their missiles to get through. The Russians have increasingly used this tactic to hit Ukrainian cities, especially Kyiv, which has sustained considerable damage and higher civilian casualties in recent weeks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that overnight '477 drones were in our skies, most of them Russian-Iranian Shaheds, along with 60 missiles of various types. The Russians were targeting everything that sustains life.' The Russians use 'up to 500 (Iranian designed) Shaheds per night, combining them with ballistic and cruise missiles — aiming to exhaust our air defenses,' says Umerov. Zelensky has reiterated pleas for more Patriot missile batteries and other western systems, which Trump said last week that the US 'should consider' because of large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities. Zelensky has said Ukraine is prepared to buy Patriots directly or through the fund established by the US-Ukrainian minerals deal. Both sides are producing drones of all types at an astonishing rate. Ukraine's Security Service reckons Russia is producing nearly 200 Iranian-designed Shahed drones every day, and has an inventory of some 6,000, in addition to about 6,000 decoy drones. Over the last week, the Russians have used more than 23,000 small 'kamikaze' drones on the frontlines, according to the Ukrainian military's General Staff. It's a never-ending race in design and production. Syrskyi said recently that Russia had developed an edge in fiber-optic-controlled drones, which are more difficult to track and intercept. Drone warfare is a 'constant intellectual struggle — the enemy regularly changed algorithms, and Ukraine adapted tactics in response,' Umerov said. 'Solutions that showed high effectiveness at the beginning of the war have lost it over time as the enemy changed tactics.' For its part, Ukraine is stepping up production of the long-range drones it has used to attack Russian infrastructure, such as airfields, refineries and transport. Umerov said 'tens of thousands' would be produced, in addition to more than four million battlefield drones this year. Both sides continue to build defense industries that allow them to keep fighting – even if the scale of Russian production far outstrips that of Ukraine. Russia's huge military conglomerate Rostec is producing an estimated 80% of the equipment used against Ukraine. Its CEO Sergey Chemezov claimed at a meeting with Putin this month that Rostec's production has grown tenfold since 2021, and its revenues rose last year to an eye-watering $46 billion. But there are darkening clouds on the horizon. Russia's military budget is some 40% of its total public spending – more than 6% of its GDP. That's stoked inflation, and Putin acknowledged last week that growth this year would be 'much more modest' to combat rising prices. He even suggested that defense spending would decline next year. One senior Russian official, Maksim Reshetnikov, who is Economic Development minister, said that 'based on current business sentiment, it seems to me we are on the brink of transitioning into recession.' The head of Russia's Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, disagreed with Reshetnikov but warned that financial buffers like the national reserve fund are nearly depleted. 'We must understand that many of these resources have been used up,' she told the St. Petersburg International Forum. Putin himself acknowledged the risk, saying that while some experts predicted stagnation, it should 'not be allowed under any circumstances.' While the longer-term prognosis for Russia may be gloomy – economically and demographically – it can continue in the short-term to fund an army of more than half-a-million men that's in Ukraine or close to its border, taking a few kilometers here and there. Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian military can still generate forces far greater than Ukraine. His eye still very much on the prize, Putin said last week: 'We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.'
Telegraph
2 days ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
Russia's summer offensive is ‘fizzling out'
Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine is faltering just weeks after it began, despite a record number of attacks across multiple fronts. Data analysis by The Telegraph shows Moscow is on track to break its own record, which was set last month, for offensive operations in June. Yet the sheer volume of assaults has not translated into meaningful breakthroughs on the battlefield. The offensive – launched in May but planned over the winter – stretches from the northern border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv to the front lines in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk, into which Russian forces are attempting to break for the first time. Moscow spent the winter months building up manpower, refining tactics and improving the co-ordination of missile and drone strikes. At first, there were signs it was paying off. In May, Russian forces advanced at the fastest pace seen since last November, gaining an average of 5.5 square miles a day – double the rate of April, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence project that tracks territorial changes. Steady gains were made in the Donetsk region, especially between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, two of Moscow's key targets. But several weeks into the campaign, momentum is slipping. 'The capacity to start something new and distinct really isn't there for the Russians right now. The summer offensive is just going to be the continuation of what they've been doing in spring,' Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told The Telegraph. In Sumy, Russian forces appear to have stalled entirely. Having re-entered the region in January and intensified their push this spring, Moscow's troops have failed to make further gains. Instead, Ukraine has recaptured some territory. Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian military analyst from Sumy, told The Telegraph that Russia's main target in the region has been Yunakivka, which lies directly on the road that connects Russia to the centre of Sumy. Should Russia manage to take the town, it would then move on to nearby villages on the edge of a large forest. This, Mr Narozhny said, would be a 'disaster' for Ukraine, adding: 'The forest leads right up to Sumy city, so if they manage to bring in artillery to Yunakivka and into the forest, they can reach Sumy city with artillery.' Despite heavy fighting, Ukraine has managed to slow down Russia's advances in the region, according to the ISW, which said Russia was sending out thousands of poorly-trained soldiers to lead the advance – a pattern seen across the front line. 'The Russian offensive has broadly stalled … They have the advantage in manpower and drones but their infantry is very poorly trained, if at all,' a senior Ukrainian NCO, who is fighting in the Kupiansk direction in Donetsk, told The Telegraph. The campaign in Sumy is part of a wider Russian effort to establish a buffer zone along the border, aimed at deterring Ukrainian drones and cross-border raids. Kyiv used the region as a launchpad for its 2024 incursion into Russia's neighbouring Kursk region. Though the stated aim was to secure the border, Vladimir Putin hinted last week he may be aiming higher. Ukraine's top general said on Thursday that Russian progress in Sumy had been stopped altogether. 'The Russian advance in the Sumy border zone has been stopped as of this week, and the front line has been stabilised,' said Oleksandr Syrsky. Yet while Sumy is a symbolic and strategic target, it is only one part of the summer offensive. Ukrainian officials have said Russia is also trying to breach the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region and continue its push to secure the entire Donbas in the east. 'Russia has really been focused on what we call the Ukrainian fortress belt, which includes Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk,' said Ms Evans. 'But they haven't really shown since the first few months of the war to make very rapid and widespread advances they would need to take these cities.' In Donetsk, if Russian forces were able to take Kostiantynivka, a critical Ukrainian logistics hub, it would then pave the way for attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, taking Putin one step closer to controlling the entire Donbas region. But given the current pace of Russia's assault and the poor training of their men, this is unlikely. 'To take Kramatorsk they would need an additional 100,000 men,' the Ukrainian NCO said. 'They needed 40,000 to take Avdiivka, 70,000 to take Bakhmut, and that included some very well-trained and capable Wagner mercenaries.' Indeed, despite an apparent manpower advantage of up to 20 to one in some sectors, Ukrainian troops defending Kostiantynivka have held their ground. 'Our task is to block their actions,' Captain Filatov told The New York Times, claiming up to 15 Russian assaults are taking place every week. 'The Russians are in a tricky position given the level of attrition they're taking,' said Nick Reynolds, a battlefield expert at the Royal United Services Institute. 'They've been unable to sustain that pressure, due to their stock of refurbishable weapons, specifically artillery and armoured vehicles.' Troops have made some progress north of Toretsk, but urban fighting around the city has slowed the advance. In Pokrovsk, meanwhile, the tempo of attacks remains high but the results are inconclusive. On Thursday, more than a quarter of Ukraine's reported front-line battles took place around the city but no progress was made. 'The Russians haven't taken a city for sometime. They celebrate like Soviet-era wins over these small towns and villages, which don't have any real strategic value,' said Prof Michael Clarke, a security and defence analyst. And with Russia attempting to open up new major fronts in Sumy and Kharkiv, while also trying to push into Dnipropetrovsk, 'any benefit they would have in Donetsk is lost because their forces are overstretched,' he added. Spreading forces thin is a key aspect of Russia's approach, particularly as they fear the style of successful counter-offensives launched by Ukraine in 2022. 'The Russians are risk averse,' said Ms Evans, 'which whittles its way down from Putin.' Stretching their forces around Ukraine also forms part of Russia's 'operational theory of victory' – to achieve the 'systematic collapse' of the Ukrainian army by imposing intense pressure, rather than pushing for a major breakthrough, said Mr Reynolds, adding: 'The Russian forces seem to have accepted that this is just the way that warfare is, even though it's not true.' Despite a general lack of momentum, Russian forces this week have notched one notable success – the seizure of a valuable lithium deposit in western Donetsk. The mine, just outside Shevchenko village, was taken in recent days, according to geolocated footage. Though only 100 acres in size, it is one of Ukraine's richest known lithium reserves. Its loss will be a blow to Kyiv's long-term development goals, especially as it courts Western investment in post-war reconstruction. And while battlefield gains have been slow, Russia has launched a number of devastating attacks on civilians in recent weeks. At least nine people were killed in a Russian missile and drone attack in Kyiv on Monday, while 28 people were killed in a similarly devastating attack on June 17. Meanwhile, Russia launched a deadly missile attack on Dnipro on Tuesday, killing at least 19 people and injuring 300 more, and on Saturday morning a married couple were killed and 17 other people injured in a strike on a residential building in Odesa. Like Russia's tactical decision to spread its forces across Ukraine, rather than in one region, these attacks show that Russia's long-term aim is to take the whole country – not just the four regions it illegally annexed in 2022. 'We have seen a marked intensification of strikes since January 2025 and it's only got worse over the last six months. It's an effort to convince people to leave and to make it easier in the future to seize these cities,' said Ms Evans. 'What eventually we will see is a return to an acknowledgement to take all of Ukraine.'
The Independent
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Independent
Ukraine-Russia war latest: New prisoner swap agreed in Istanbul includes return of ‘heroes of Mariupol'
North Korea's deployment to Ukraine will be 'significant battlefield inflection' – ISW North Korea's deployment of its troops to Ukrainian territory will represent 'significant battlefield inflection', the Institute for the Study of War. 'The North Korean and Russian military commands authorising the deployment of North Korean forces to Ukrainian territory would mark a significant battlefield inflection that may improve Russian forces' ability to sustain simultaneous offensive operations in multiple directions, which the Russian military has traditionally struggled to conduct,' the US-based think tank said in its latest assessment. According to the South Korean intelligence, North Korea may deploy an unspecified number of additional North Korean forces to Russia to fight against Ukraine as early as July or August 2025 and that North Korea continues to arm Russia with artillery ammunition and missiles. Arpan Rai27 June 2025 06:33 Britain must 'actively prepare' for a war on home soil, major government review warns The UK must prepare for the possibility of a ' wartime scenario' on home soil, a major new government review has National Security Strategy, published on Tuesday, has issued the grim warning as events in the Middle East and Russia's war with Ukraine continue to add to international instability. It comes just 48 hours after Iran threatened to target UK bases following the US attack on its nuclear facilities, before a ceasefire was announced last night. The strategy also recommends that UK citizens undergo 'national resilience exercises' in preparation for attacks at home. UK must 'actively prepare' for a war on home soil, major government review warns The new National Security Strategy has been published with a grim warning as international turmoil in the Middle East and Ukraine continues Arpan Rai27 June 2025 06:29 EU leaders seek a big boost in Ukraine military support but make little progress on Russia sanctions European Union leaders called for even greater efforts to help meet Ukraine's pressing military needs, and expressed support for the country's quest to join their ranks. The talks, however, made little headway with new sanctions against Russia, slowing EU's key agenda for months now. At a summit in Brussels yesterday, the leaders said it was important to deliver more "air defense and anti-drone systems, and large-caliber ammunition, to help Ukraine, as it exercises its inherent right to self-defence, to protect its citizens and territory against Russia's intensified daily attacks." They also underlined the need to help support Ukraine's defence industry, which can make weapons and ammunition more quickly and cheaply than its European counterparts. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the meeting via videolink. The leaders said the bloc "remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine's path towards EU membership." That message comes a day after Nato leaders refrained from putting a reference to Ukraine's hopes of joining the military organisation in their summit statement, due in large part to US resistance. Arpan Rai27 June 2025 05:58 Zelensky welcomes home fresh batch of Ukrainian prisoners of war Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed home a new batch of the country's soldiers taken captive by Russia as the two sides exchanged more prisoners of war yesterday. 'We are continuing the exchanges, another stage has taken place. Today, warriors of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, and the State Border Guard Service are returning home. Most of them had been in captivity since 2022,' he said in a post on X. 'We are doing everything possible to find each person, to verify the information on every name. We must bring all our people home,' he said, just days after he said Russia had sent some of its own dead soldiers to Ukraine in a swap of fallen soldiers. He also shared an emotional video of the Ukrainian soldiers reuniting with their loved ones upon return to the country at an undisclosed location. The returned soldiers are seen draped in Ukrainian flags, hugging and crying their loved ones, calling their family members, drinking a beverage and smoking. Arpan Rai27 June 2025 05:43 Chinese reporter injured in Ukrainian drone attack on Kursk, Russia says A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Kursk region on the border with Ukraine injured a war correspondent from the Chinese news outlet Phoenix TV, Russian authorities said late last night, "A Ukrainian drone today struck the village of Korenevo in the Korenevsky district," acting governor of the Kursk region, Alexander Khinshtein, said on Telegram. "A 63-year-old correspondent, Lu Yuguang, who went to the border area on his own, was injured." Mr Khinshtein said in a later post that the journalist had skin cuts to his head and after treatment, refused hospitalisation. Russia's foreign ministry called on the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and other international organisations to "promptly respond and give a proper assessment" of the incident. "The targeted attack.... indicates the intention of the Kyiv regime to silence and de facto destroy representatives of any media that seek to convey objective information," Maria Zakharova, the foreign ministry's spokesperson, said in a Telegram post. According to Russia's state and official media outlets, Lu has been reporting on the war since its early days. Russia launched the war with a full-scale invasion on Ukraine in February 2022. Lu told Russia's state news agencies that he was feeling fine. "Western journalists are not visible at all (in Kursk)," Lu said in a video posted by TASS on social media, with his head in bandages, "We, Chinese journalists, want to convey what happened in the Kursk region." Russia has also urged for an intervention from the United Nations on the incident. Arpan Rai27 June 2025 05:32 North Korea could send troops to Russia for summer offensive, says South Korea North Korea may send more troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine this summer, South Korean lawmakers have claimed citing the country's intelligence agency. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) believes Russia may be readying to mount a large-scale assault against Ukraine in July or August, South Korean member of parliament Lee Seong-kweun told reporters. This assessment is based on new round-up of troops by the North Korean military, and the visit of a top Russian presidential security official. Pyongyang is likely to receive technical advice on satellite launches and missile guidance systems in return, the briefing said according to Mr Lee. Russia and North Korea have said their cooperation is based on a treaty signed by Vladimir Putin and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un, which includes a mutual defence pact. Arpan Rai27 June 2025 05:07 Russia and Ukraine carry out new round of prisoner swaps Russia and Ukraine completed another round of prisoner exchanges, officials in both countries said yesterday, part of an agreement struck in Istanbul recently between the two sides. Both sides exchanged the same number of prisoners, but there was no word on how many soldiers were involved, Russian state RIA news agency said. Ukraine's coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war said majority of the prsioners had been captive and in Russian custody for more than three years. The swap included injured soldiers and those with health complaints. The youngest is 24 and the oldest is 62, it said, adding that more exchanges are expected soon. Many of them were taken prisoner in the Ukrainian city Mariupol, which fell to Russian forces after a lengthy siege in 2022. 27 June 2025 04:20 Kremlin says no progress towards next Russia-Ukraine peace talks The Kremlin has said there was no progress yet towards setting a date for the next round of peace talks with Ukraine, Interfax news agency reported yesterday. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was in favour of continued US mediation effort, another news agency, Tass, reported. Resuming negotiations after a gap of more than three years, Russia and Ukraine held face-to-face talks in Istanbul on 16 May and 2 June that led to a series of prisoner exchanges and the return of the bodies of dead soldiers. But they have made no progress towards a ceasefire which Ukraine, with Western backing, has been pressing for. Arpan Rai27 June 2025 04:05 Trump would join peace talks between Putin and Zelensky, says Erdogan Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that Donald Trump told him he would attend potential peace talks between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. But it all depends on if Russian president Vladimir Putin also agreed to take part, Mr Erdogan said. On his return flight from a Nato summit at The Hague, where he met Mr Trump for the first time since the latter returned to office, Mr Erdogan said he told the US president Ankara aims to bring the Russian and Ukrainian leaders together in Turkey for peace talks. "He (Trump) said, 'if Russian president Vladimir Putin comes to Istanbul or Ankara for a solution, then I will also come," Mr Erdogan told reporters, according to his office. "We will hold the necessary contacts and God willing realise this meeting as soon as possible." Arpan Rai27 June 2025 04:03 The myriad countries arming Russia and Ukraine – and the billions it costs Donald Trump has suggested that the US could send more Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, and has not ruled out providing the war-torn country with a new military support package. Speaking at the Nato summit in the Netherlands on Wednesday, the president said 'we'll see what happens' when asked whether Washington would add to the $8 billion pledged by Nato allies. "They do want to have the anti-missile missiles, OK, as they call them, the Patriots," the US president said. "And we're going to see if we can make some available. We need them, too. We're supplying them to Israel, and they're very effective, 100 per cent effective. Hard to believe how effective. They do want that more than any other thing.' Here, The Independent takes a look at what weapons the US and other countries have been sending to Ukraine and Russia as the war show no signs of ending soon. The myriad countries arming Russia and Ukraine – and the billions it costs Arpan Rai27 June 2025 03:59
