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The Diplomat
18-07-2025
- Politics
- The Diplomat
Recent Violence Underscores Problems Facing Afghanistan's Badakhshan Province
The geographic and social conditions that make Badakhshan difficult for the Taliban to control also make it difficult for any widespread unrest to spill out from the region. An early July counternarcotics operation by Taliban authorities triggered a week-long outbreak of violence in Khash District in central Badakhshan Province, resulting in as many as 15 dead. Protests and repression in the area are not new, as violence also broke out during last year's poppy cultivation season. The drug trade, competition over minerals, ethnic and religious tensions, and the presence of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) will likely continue to challenge the Taliban regime's ability to exert control over Badakhshan, a province where it historically enjoyed only limited support. Unless things escalate further, the recent unrest in Badakhshan seems unlikely to pose a threat to the Taliban's control over the country. However, the province should serve as a bellwether for the Taliban's attempts to adapt its dogmatic governance to an increasingly underserved national population. Badakhshan Province was never ruled by the Taliban during the first emirate, though the movement did enjoy some support in the area. Several key members of the Taliban are from the province, including the current Chief of Army Staff Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat. During the insurgency, the Taliban presence increased in the central districts of the province after 2014. While the Taliban lacked the manpower in the northeast to expand their base of support past a few districts, the Taliban's presence around Faizabad meant that it was only the ninth provincial capital to fall once the group began its takeover of the country in 2021. Since the takeover, the Taliban have been careful in their governance of the province, seeking to manage their lack of support in the more remote districts of the province. The ethnic disposition of the Badakhshan presents a problem for the Taliban. Tajiks and Uzbeks make up the overwhelming majority of the province's population with a limited number of Pashtuns sprinkled among the urban areas, working as traders or government officials. In an effort to accommodate local sensitivities, the Taliban has allowed Badakhshi commanders and officials to hold government posts in their local areas, something not generally allowed elsewhere in the country. However, as time as passed, there is an increasing tension between local Tajik and Uzbek Taliban members and Pashtun senior leaders from outside of the province. There are also sectarian elements to the instability in Badakhshan as the Deobandi Taliban have sought to assert control over Salafi mosques and Ismaili prayer houses and cultural centers in the province. Religious tensions in the province likely caused the killing of a local Agha Khan Foundation official on July 9 and a local Salafist Taliban leader on May 27. While it has been quiet in recent months, ISKP has a historic presence in Badakhshan, capitalizing on the area's religious and ethnic fault lines. The Taliban target ISKP cells in the province as they are identified, to mixed results. Iranian officials claimed the Islamic State's January 3, 2024 attack in Kerman was facilitated out of Badakhshan. However, ISKP only conducted four attacks inside the province in 2024, and has not claimed an attack in Badakhshan this year. Despite the group's recent decline, its actions set the stage for the current problems in the province. On June 6, 2023, ISKP killed the deputy governor of Badakhshan with a car bomb. ISKP then conducted a suicide attack on the deputy governor's funeral two days later. Recognizing the need for a firmer hand in the province, the Taliban named Muhammad Ayub Khalid, a Pashtun, to be Badakhshan's governor. Khalid's prior experience as a military commander suggests the regime is increasingly focused on security in the region. The movement of additional Pashtuns into intelligence and police positions in the province set the stage for renewed tensions with the local populace as the national government seeks to tighten its control over Badakhshan. Competition between local leaders and the national government over Badakhshan's rich mineral resources is a critical driver for instability. The province has aluminum, gold, and limestone deposits as well as jewels such as rubies and lapis lazuli. The Taliban regime awarded mining contracts in 2024 for the region's large deposits and tried to crack down on illegal mines run by the local population. Control over the province's mines is no trivial matter. The Taliban seek to exploit Afghanistan's mineral wealth in order to mitigate the pressure of Western sanctions and impact of persistent budget shortfalls. For Badakshis, the mines provide a critical revenue stream for many to meet their basic needs as the government provides only minimal services and the terrain and climate limit agricultural opportunities in the province. Conflict over the drug trade is also increasing in Badakhshan. After the Taliban banned poppy cultivation across the country, Badakhshan has emerged as the new center of the Afghan drug trade. The Taliban anti-drug efforts largely depend on deterrence of farmers, rather than aggressive eradication or interdiction campaigns. The Taliban was able to deter poppy cultivation in other parts of the country through strong networks of supporters and allies that convinced the population of the rectitude of the ban. The Taliban in Badakhshan lacked that support network. In fact, many local Taliban commanders did not enforce the ban. Further, southern Pashtun drug traffickers established connections with Badakhshi growers to refine their opium to heroin for shipment to international markets. The eruption of cultivation eventually became something Taliban senior leadership could not ignore. As the Taliban began eradication in the province in spring of 2024, they moved largely Pashtun fighters into Badakhshan from other provinces. The new troops almost immediately began fighting not only with the local population, but eventually with local Badakhshi Taliban as well. As they seek to smooth over ethnic and religious turbulence and improve control, the Taliban have made significant investments in Badakhshan. The government has built canals and bridges in addition to a terminal for international cargo handling. The most notable, and ambitious, infrastructure project is a road through the Wakhan Corridor to connect the province with China. A road project to better connect Badakhshan to Panjshir and Nuristan is also underway. These roads serve to improve the security forces' access to restive parts of the country and increase the government's ability to establish additional mines in Badakhshan and elsewhere in the northeast. With the transportation network improving and Pashtuns now firmly entrenched in key positions in the province, the Taliban are gradually moving to bring governance in Badakhshan in line with Afghanistan's other provinces. Since Khalid's installation as governor, local officials have begun floggings for moral offenses, removing women from educational positions, seizing weapons, and regulating holiday celebrations, things that started long ago in other parts of the country. These moves have further exacerbated popular grievances. When Taliban forces showed up in Darayim and Argo districts in 2024 and in Argo, Jurm, and Khash districts in May and July this year to eradicate local poppy crops, violence was an extraordinarily likely outcome. The Taliban seem to be developing a playbook for such disturbances: withdraw the offending troops and reconstitute, flood the zone with reinforcements, cut off local access to internet, arrest any complicit local commanders, and employ senior Badakhshi Taliban leaders like Fitrat and others to mediate. Little has been done to address core grievances in Badakhshan, so additional violence next May, June, and July is likely as Taliban forces again eradicate poppy ahead of the harvest. Leaders of the anti-Taliban resistance, like General Jalaluddin Yaftali and Vice President Amrullah Saleh, were quick to encourage Badakhshan's population to expand the revolt. It was not to be. The geographic and social conditions that make Badakhshan difficult for the Taliban to control make it difficult for any widespread unrest to spill out from the region. Badakhshan will remain turbulent, though it might be possible for unrest to challenge the regime's ability to control the neighboring portions of Takhar and Panjshir provinces. Unless there is a substantial deterioration in conditions, it is likely the Taliban will do just enough to keep northeastern Afghanistan under control. However, Badakhshan should be watched closely for any further challenges to Taliban authority.
United News of India
05-07-2025
- Politics
- United News of India
UK acknowledges partial success by Afghan Taliban in curbing ISKP terrorists
London/Kabul, July 5 (UNI) The United Kingdom acknowledged that Afghanistan's Taliban-led interim government has made partial gains in curbing the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), though the Islamic terror group continues to pose a serious threat both within the country and beyond its borders. Speaking at a security conference in Islamabad, British High Commissioner to Pakistan Matt Cannell noted that while Taliban efforts have disrupted ISKP operations since 2022, the group has not been dismantled, reports Tolo News. 'What we've seen is a dispersal rather than eradication of ISKP,' he said. 'They have obviously regrouped and are now promoting attacks in neighbouring countries and across the border as well.' ISKP, the regional affiliate of the Islamic State, has remained active despite ongoing crackdowns by the Taliban, which so far has successfully curbed the terrorist group's numbers in the country. The group has been responsible for a series of deadly attacks targeting civilians, minorities, government authorities, infrastructure, and even foreign officials across Afghanistan and the wider region. While the Taliban has claimed that the group has been defeated, Western officials and analysts continue to express concern about its shifting tactics and potential for resurgence. Cannell emphasised the need for sustained regional cooperation to counter the evolving threat. 'We understand how Taliban pressure has continued to affect ISKP,' he said. 'Sharing insights with our partners is essential to continue disrupting future activity.' In a separate meeting, the British chargé d'affaires to Afghanistan told Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, the Taliban's acting Minister for Refugees and Repatriation, that the United Nations has drafted a plan for Afghanistan focused on strengthening engagement with the interim government and supporting national stability in the country. UNI ANV GNK 1839
The Diplomat
01-07-2025
- Politics
- The Diplomat
Involvement of Regional Actors Complicates the Insurgency in Balochistan
The insurgency in Balochistan, framed by local fighters as an anti-imperialist struggle against Pakistan and its Chinese sponsors, continues to escalate as regional powers and terror groups trade accusations about the conflict. Having lost the initiative in the conflict long ago, Pakistan is increasingly blaming its neighbors for its stale security strategy and failures on the battlefield. Not to be outdone, the Baloch insurgents claim the Islamabad is now using Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) to target Baloch civilians to quell the insurgency. Regardless of the veracity of these claims, all sides increasingly blame outside involvement for the ongoing escalation of violence in the province and will expand their target lists accordingly. The Baloch struggle for independence from Pakistan will likely involve a growing cast of characters (and victims). February set the stage for this summer's violence. That month, the senior leadership of key Baloch and Sindhi insurgent groups, operating under the Baloch Raji Aoji Sangar (BRAS) umbrella, held a high-level meeting, which resulted in an overhaul of the coalition's military and diplomatic strategies. The groups agreed to shift their military strategy from 'scattered guerrilla attacks to an organized and coordinated resistance' as they would soon become a 'Baloch National Army.' Since the meeting, the insurgents have conducted several large-scale attacks, notably the March 11 hijacking of the Jaffar Express. The train attack was followed by a complex assault on a military bus convoy in Noshki on March 16. The insurgents also routed local security forces and temporarily seized the towns of Manoghar on May 2 and Surab on May 31. Attacks against Pakistani security forces continued to soar throughout June as the insurgents showed increasing coordination and determination in their military operations. In addition to Pakistan, China is involved too. China has a number of infrastructure and investment projects in the province as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Baloch insurgent groups have targeted Chinese projects as a political message. In response, China is struggling to find new ways to collaborate with Islamabad to shore up the province's security. But Beijing has also begun its own outreach to civic leaders in Balochistan to de-escalate the threats. In late May, China's assistant minister of foreign affairs met with a delegation from the province to gain some support in the province. Unfortunately, China seems unable to meaningfully shape favorable outcomes for its CPEC investments and seems focused on echoing Islamabad's claims of foreign support to the insurgency. While all of Balochistan's insurgent groups deny the claims, Pakistan has long blamed India for the violence in Balochistan. Direct evidence of Indian involvement remains limited, but security analysts on both sides of the border assess that New Delhi actively supports the Baloch insurgents. On May 11, after a series of coordinated assaults across the province, the Balochistan Liberation Army issued a message to India claiming the attacks: 'We assure India that if it makes the final decision to eliminate the terrorist state of Pakistan, Baloch Liberation Army, along with the entire nation, is ready to attack from the western border. We will not only welcome the decision but will also become its practical and military arm. We are ready to surround Pakistan from both eastern and western fronts.' The message was a pointed one given its timing immediately after the India-Pakistan cross-border strikes of May 7-10. The following week, on May 23, the director general of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the messaging wing of Pakistan's military, claimed that the bombing of a bus near Khuzdar, the March Jaffar Express attack, and an October 2024 attack on the Chinese envoy were all directed by New Delhi. The ISPR is now regularly labeling insurgents as 'Indian sponsored' terrorists and 'Indian proxy' outfits. Potential Indian support to the Baloch insurgency provides Islamabad with a poignant counterpoint to New Delhi's accusations about Pakistan's involvement in Kashmir. Further, should BRAS and its affiliates continue to build momentum on the battlefield, it may alter Pakistan's calculus about support to extremist groups in Kashmir. Beyond just India and Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan are now involved in the narrative of the Baloch militias. In January 2024, Pakistan and Iran came to blows over mutual accusations of support to separatist Baloch militias operating on the other side of the border. Pakistan has also increasingly blamed the Taliban regime in Afghanistan for the violence in Balochistan. Islamabad has long claimed the Taliban supports Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in their campaign against the state. However, the severity of the Jaffar Express attack left Islamabad reeling and looking for answers. The Pakistan Army spokesperson stated that the attack was planned and directed in Afghanistan. He also stated the militants were in contact with their facilitators and planners in Afghanistan via satellite phones during the operation. Meanwhile, the ISPR also noted that the BLA attackers used U.S.-origin weapons left in Afghanistan in the hijacking. The Taliban denied the charges outright, while noting the strong presence of Islamic State Khorasan Province in Pakistani territory. Indeed, ISKP presents a wild card in Balochistan's insurgency. Until recently, the group was largely content to use the province to train personnel and stage terror attacks like the March 2024 attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in Moscow. However, the group declared war against the Baloch insurgents in May. ISKP claimed Baloch insurgents attacked one of its training camps in the Mastung area. In a public announcement, ISKP threatened to attack protests by Baloch civilians against the forced disappearances of civilians by the Pakistani military. The threat has substantial credibility given ISKP's string of deadly bombings in the province during the 2024 Pakistani elections. Following the ISKP threat, Baloch political leaders were quick to claim that Pakistani security apparatus was using ISKP to threaten even non-violent Baloch political activities. As the Baloch insurgency starts its third decade of violence, the security vacuum it has created presents substantial threats not only to Pakistan, but to its neighbors. Unable and unwilling to address the core political and security grievances of the Baloch population, Pakistan seems intent on continuing its existing approach, which relies on numerous, isolated checkpoints, intelligence-based operations, and rampant extrajudicial violence against the Baloch population. Islamabad lacks a strategy to address the alleged foreign interference in its internal affairs. The continued trading of accusations of militant support with India, last year's tit-for-tat exchange with Iran, and periodic cross-border skirmishes with Afghanistan are a preview of what is to come. In the meantime, ISKP will continue to make its presence in the region felt. The once limited insurgency in Balochistan now threatens stability across the region.
Business Recorder
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
China puts its weight behind Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: As tensions between Pakistan and India continue to rise, China on Thursday reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to support Pakistan's pursuit of peace and stability in South Asia. The pledge came during a high-level meeting between Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, said a statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office. The discussion focused on a series of escalating issues, including India's recent accusations against Pakistan in connection with the Pahalgam incident. Diplomatic setback for India at UNSC as Pakistan, China block pro-India statement on Pahalgam attack Sharif categorically denied Pakistan's involvement, calling the claims 'false' and urging India to reconsider its approach. In response, Ambassador Zaidong expressed gratitude to Sharif for presenting Pakistan's position and facts in detail, underscoring that China would continue to stand by Pakistan in its efforts to achieve long-term peace in the region. Zaidong's comments come at a time of heightened political and military tensions, with India accusing Pakistan of backing militant activities. However, Sharif was quick to emphasize the broader geopolitical dynamics, particularly the growing threat posed by terrorism in the region. 'Pakistan has long been a frontline state in the fight against terror,' Sharif remarked, pointing to the country's immense human and economic toll – over 90,000 lives lost and $152 billion in economic losses – faced in combating groups like Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), many of which operate from Afghanistan. The Prime Minister also voiced concern over India's recent actions concerning water disputes, calling it a 'weapon of aggression.' Under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), he argued, both nations are bound by agreements that should not be violated unilaterally. Sharif's remarks were a direct rebuke to India's decision to utilize water resources as a tool of coercion, which Pakistan sees as a direct violation of international accords. Sharif also expressed gratitude toward China for its ongoing diplomatic support. He referenced a recent phone call between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, where China reiterated its backing for Pakistan's position on India's provocative actions since April 2025. In particular, the Prime Minister thanked China for its endorsement of Pakistan's call for a 'reliable and transparent' international investigation into the Pahalgam incident. The longstanding dispute over Jammu and Kashmir was also a focal point of the conversation. Sharif reiterated that the only path to lasting peace in South Asia lies in the peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue. 'We remain committed to dialogue and diplomacy, but any resolution must honour the legitimate rights of the Kashmiri people,' he added. In his closing remarks, Sharif conveyed his best wishes to Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. He expressed heartfelt appreciation for China's 'strong and unwavering support,' particularly at a time when South Asia is witnessing growing tensions. 'China's continued backing gives us hope for a peaceful resolution and for a stable, secure future in South Asia,' Sharif concluded. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
US urges India, Pakistan to de-escalate tensions
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged India and Pakistan to work with each other to de-escalate tensions after last week's militant attack in IIOJK, the State Department said on Wednesday. Rubio spoke separately with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday while expressing support to India in combating extremism and urging Pakistan to cooperate in probing the attack that killed more than two dozen people, the State Department said in separate statements after the calls. —Reuters Zulfiqar Ahmad from Islamabad adds: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday called on the United States to take a more assertive role in de-escalating the situation, urging Washington to press New Delhi to act with restraint. The push for US intervention came during a high-level phone call between Prime Minister Sharif and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio – the first official contact between Islamabad and the Trump administration since President Donald Trump took office in January. The call, seen as diplomatically significant, followed a sharp escalation in rhetoric between the two nuclear-armed rivals. According to a statement from the Prime Minister's Office, Prime Minister Sharif received a call from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday evening, during which he outlined Pakistan's perspective on the escalating situation in South Asia and voiced concern over what he termed India's 'escalatory and provocative' actions. At the heart of Islamabad's concerns is what Sharif described as New Delhi's attempt to 'weaponize water' – an obvious reference to India's handling of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Sharif criticized India for what he called a unilateral approach to a bilateral accord that governs water distribution between the two countries. 'Water is a lifeline for 240 million people in Pakistan,' Sharif said, warning that any disruption to its flow would carry dire consequences. In a pointed rebuke of Indian allegations linking Pakistan to the Pahalgam incident, Sharif categorically denied any involvement, instead calling for a 'transparent, credible, and neutral investigation' to determine the facts. He warned that such accusations were aimed at derailing Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts, which remain focused on combating groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) – many of which, he insisted, operate from Afghan territory. Sharif also took the opportunity to underscore Pakistan's long-standing cooperation with the United States, describing the bilateral relationship as one rooted in over seven decades of partnership. He highlighted counterterrorism and economic development – especially in the minerals sector – as areas ripe for further collaboration. While condemning terrorism 'in all its forms and manifestations,' the prime minister reiterated the heavy toll Pakistan has paid in the global war on terror: over 90,000 lives lost and an estimated $152 billion in economic damages. On the regional front, Sharif stressed that a peaceful resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains essential to ensuring long-term stability in South Asia. He warned that continued provocation from India risks undermining Pakistan's domestic progress, particularly its recent economic reforms, which he claimed have begun to steer the country toward recovery. Secretary Rubio, for his part, expressed appreciation for the candid exchange and reaffirmed the United States' interest in promoting peace and stability across the region. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
