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New York Times
4 days ago
- Automotive
- New York Times
NASCAR Cup Series at Dover odds, predictions for In-Season Challenge Round 4
NASCAR heads to the coastal plains of Dover, Delaware, for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 and the fourth (and final elimination) round of the inaugural In-Season Challenge. Our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, answer our questions ahead of the race, including who on the bubble is in the most trouble and whether a long shot has a chance to win. Also, Bianchi went four-for-four last week with his challenge picks, and Gluck seems a little salty — he makes good points, though. Take it away, guys! Time to revisit and recalibrate your Challenge picks. Jordan, did you go four for four!?? What are we predicting for this final elimination into the championship? Jeff: Hey, it's easy for Jordan to go four-for-four when he gets a re-do every week after his bracket blew up in Round 1, though I'll give him credit for taking a flier on picking Ty Dillon (even though it was just for fun). But I'll stick with my pick from the start — Tyler Reddick — to advance to the finals over Ty Gibbs. And although Dillon has been a fun story, he's been helped massively by the poor performance of his competitors: 31st, 37th and 19th. That has allowed Dillon to advance to the semifinals with finishes of eighth, 20th and 17th — although he certainly deserves credit for knocking Alex Bowman out of the way on the last corner at Sonoma to advance. But even though John Hunter Nemechek's run has also been unspectacular (he advanced by finishing 28th at Sonoma), his team will likely bring more speed at Dover, so I'm picking him over Dillon this week. Advertisement Jordan: Sure, there's a minor detail about how and why I went four-for-four last week, but all that matters is what the scoreboard says. And don't be upset that I believed in the tournament Cinderella enough to hitch my wagon to the Ty Dillon Express, which, against all odds, just keeps chugging along every week. Yes, he will face a challenge at Dover, but that makes this run all the more inspiring. For Reddick vs. Gibbs, a case can be made for either, but Reddick gets the nod as he's shown greater speed overall this season than Gibbs. You ranked the upset potential of the remaining regular-season races, and for Dover, you said, 'No way. There hasn't been an upset at Dover in the last 20 years.' Oof. Should we be disappointed by that? Could anyone get their first win of the season here? Should those trying to 'point' their way in be relieved or worried at this lack of upsets? Jeff: There are plenty of opportunities throughout the season for upset winners; I just don't think this is one of them. If you look at the list of Dover winners since 2005, the entire list is current or future Hall of Famers except for Bowman, but Bowman won during a four-victory season, so it's not like it was any sort of fluke. You're not likely to see an out-of-nowhere driver win this race on strategy or even find themselves at the front during the race, so one of the usual suspects should win this week. And as you mentioned in your question, that is a big relief for the bubble drivers because it's unlikely that someone wins from outside the top 16 and jumps them to move the cut line. Jordan: Dover is just not a track with a history of producing upset winners. This is a place that favors the best drivers and the top teams, and rare is it that circumstances allow someone beyond the 'usual suspects' to break through. But that doesn't mean there is little chance of seeing a first-time winner Sunday. The two obvious names to watch are Gibbs and Carson Hocevar, who have come close this season to getting that first-career win. Mid-season panic meter: Who on the bubble is in the hottest water right now? What's the strategy going forward? Jeff: It's hard to argue that Bubba Wallace isn't in the toughest spot of the bubble drivers because his team has playoff expectations, and he is currently in jeopardy of not doing so after his great start to the season evaporated. Wallace is only three points to the good on the cutoff line right now, but that line could move anytime with a new winner. And then he's got work to do to catch Bowman and Chris Buescher. In that case, the pressure would shift to Bowman — a Hendrick Motorsports driver can't miss the playoffs. In the meantime, the answer is Wallace, who was seventh in the point standings after the first 10 races but has only scored the 23rd-most points in the last 10. Wallace had only three top-20 finishes during that time, underlining how miserable this stretch has been. Advertisement Jordan: Wallace cannot afford to miss the playoffs for a fourth time in five years, especially while his teammate Reddick has done so in three consecutive seasons. It would help Wallace's cause if he could shake some of the bad luck that's plagued him recently, often negating what otherwise would have likely been a solid result. But Wallace also must shoulder some of the blame; in Chicago, he allowed his frustration to get the better of him in the closing laps when racing Bowman, which cost him probably 20 points. The good news for Wallace is that the upcoming schedule includes a bevy of tracks — Dover, Indianapolis, Richmond, Watkins Glen and Daytona — where he should do well. If he performs like he's capable of, he should score enough points to move him off the bubble and guard against someone below him jumping ahead. Who do you pick to win at Dover? Jeff: I've got a bit of an unusual pick for you this week: Chase Briscoe, who has never finished in the top 10 at Dover. Here's my theory: Briscoe is driving Martin Truex Jr.'s old car and has his old team, and Truex has the best average finish at Dover in the Next Gen car (5.3). It's not like Briscoe doesn't know how to get around the place; he led 107 laps and won the 2020 Xfinity Series race there before he graduated to the Cup Series (and had four straight top-10s in Xfinity races at Dover). If the No. 19 team can bring similar speed to what we'd see with Truex, as it did for Briscoe's runner-up finish at Sonoma last week, the driver might surprise some people at +2000. Jordan: Chase Elliott and the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team have seemed to up their performance in recent weeks — a stretch that includes a win at Atlanta that snapped Elliott's lengthy winless drought. And Dover represents a great chance for him to get his second win of the season. He is a two-time winner here, and his 10 top-five finishes are the most he has at any track. If Elliott can deliver Sunday, it will further solidify that the No. 9 team is every bit a title contender in the same class as William Byron, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney. Who is a long shot you like? Jeff: Last year, this race became a big talking point because of how well the drivers could defend with their rear-view cameras. They simply take away the line of the car behind them, and it makes it nearly impossible to pass when they get it right. There will be a new tire this year at Dover, so maybe that changes things, but all signs for now seem to point toward the favorites. That makes it hard to find a decent 'long shot' this week. But although he has the same odds as my winner pick and isn't an upset at all, Bowman at +2000 shouldn't be overlooked. Dover is a track he loves and where he brings confidence, as evidenced by five top-five finishes in his last seven starts there. It's actually the NASCAR track where he has the most top-five finishes in his career. So, this is bending the definition of a 'long shot' quite a bit, but I don't think any true upsets are realistic. Jordan: As noted above, finding a viable longshot is not easy at Dover. So let's go with Ty Gibbs (+2800), who has finished decently here in two-career starts (10th and 13th) and whose team, Joe Gibbs Racing, is a powerhouse that has won two of the three races here, in the Next Gen Era. In a week where it feels like only a select group of drivers can win, you can do a whole lot worse than picking Gibbs. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Chase Briscoe: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
New York Times
12-07-2025
- Automotive
- New York Times
NASCAR Cup Series at Sonoma odds, predictions for Toyota/Save Mart 350, In-Season Challenge third round
NASCAR is in wine country this weekend, as Sonoma Raceway hosts the Toyota/Save Mart 350 and the third round of the inaugural In-Season Challenge. As we do every week, we're bringing our NASCAR questions to the experts: Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. We're getting the scoop on the latest charter drama involving Michael Jordan's 23XI Racing, predictions for the In-Season Challenge and whether anyone can beat Shane van Gisbergen on a road course these days. Take it away, guys! Round 2 of the Challenge at Chicago was Round 2 of the upset circus! Heading into the third round at Sonoma, who is in the best spot of the remaining drivers? Which matchups do you like the most? Let's get your updated picks! Jeff: Hey, my bracket challenge winner (Tyler Reddick) is still alive in this thing. And I correctly called John Hunter Nemechek in the Elite Eight. But aside from that, my bracket has been a disaster like most others. Anyway, the matchups are largely unexciting given most of the drivers have no history or rivalry together (Ryan Preece vs. Tyler Reddick? Ty Dillon and Alex Bowman?). But there is a fun one: Legacy Motor Club teammates Erik Jones and Nemechek. I've got Bowman over Dillon and Nemechek over Jones, then Reddick over Preece and Ty Gibbs over Zane Smith. Next week at Dover, it's Bowman over Nemechek and Reddick over Gibbs, setting up a Bowman/Reddick final at Indianapolis (where Reddick wins, as I had all along. Ha!). Advertisement Jordan: Of the eight matchups last week, I correctly picked six winners (Bowman, Nemechek, Jones, Preece, Reddick and Gibbs). So, considering how tumultuous this tournament has been, I'm going to go ahead and pat myself on the back. But this week is going to be a challenging one as several of the drivers left don't have a strong record at Sonoma. Here are my picks: Dillon continues his Cinderella, Florida Gulf Coast-esque run by knocking out the heavily favored Bowman; Nemechek over Jones; Reddick over Preece and Gibbs over Smith. Let's talk about the Chicago race winner, Shane van Gisbergen (SVG). I asked a few weeks ago about the seeming proliferation of road or street courses on the NASCAR schedule (which you can tell me if that's actually an outlier historically). If this seeming trend continues, what do teams and/or drivers need to do to get more people dominant on this style of course? Surely they're not just going to let SVG keep running roughshod over the field! Jeff: Just like it's tough for SVG to catch up with the rest of the field on ovals, it's also tough for the other drivers to catch up to him on road courses. He's a three-time champion in Australia's Supercars series and won 80 races there — all on non-ovals (they only race road and street courses) and while driving a car that is a distant cousin of the Cup Series' Next Gen car. Even if they're different enough, they're still more similar to NASCAR than open-wheel cars, which is why I think we've seen SVG have so much success right away. He simply has done this longer and better than anyone else he's competing against, and it shows. I don't know how you easily overcome that — but the fastest car doesn't always win these races, either. Jordan: SVG is on an incredible run right now, and while he certainly could continue to run roughshod over the field on the road courses, it's also just as likely that the field catches up to him. Let's remember that not too long ago, Chase Elliott was winning with great frequency on road courses, and NASCAR switched to a new car; the field caught up, and Elliott hasn't won on a road course since July 2021. And let's also keep in mind that van Gisbergen's two wins this year, Mexico City and Chicago, are on two tracks where his competition has little experience, which gives him a further advantage. But on road courses like Circuit of the Americas and Watkins Glen, where the field has plenty of laps, van Gisbergen was anything but infallible. This is a long way of saying that, yes, van Gisbergen is the driver to beat anytime NASCAR visits a road course, but it is by no means any sort of guarantee he wins. Jeff wrote a really helpful explainer on the situation with 23XI and Front Row facing potential loss of their charters — the biggest immediate impact is that Tyler Reddick could become a free agent?! In your article, you said, 'Whether you think it sounds unrealistic or not…' But do YOU think this sounds realistic or not? Who would be most likely to snap him up in that hypothetical? Jeff: While a lot of things would have to happen, you certainly can't outright dismiss it, and I would bet a couple of teams are sniffing around already. Aside from angering Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan, what's the risk in trying to lure Reddick away? You might not get this good of a shot at a top free agent for years. But teams would have to clear room for him, which is also a risk — if you try to get Reddick but fail, and word gets around to your driver that you were trying to hire someone else for his ride? Awkward. Maybe it's worth it, though, if a team is underperforming. As I mentioned in that piece linked above, I could see Spire Motorsports taking a swing with Justin Haley on a very hot seat. Advertisement Jordan: Over the past several weeks, I've spoken to a multitude of team decision-makers about this exact scenario, and every single one of them noted how they were keeping a close eye on Reddick's status, with several even saying they would pursue signing him should the opportunity present itself. Well, that opportunity may soon be on the horizon and if so, expect teams to go all-in on signing the talented driver who nearly won the championship a year ago. Back to racing: Who do you like to win at Sonoma? Who's getting that wine? Jeff: I said Ty Gibbs would win Chicago after his strong Mexico City performance, but he came up one spot short. Gibbs has now hung with SVG in the last two road course races and looks terrific on those types of tracks. I'll stick with him to get his first career victory this weekend and pull the upset on SVG (although it's not THAT much of an upset since he has the fifth-best odds). Jordan: Kyle Larson is due for one of those races where he leads the most laps, sweeps the stage and wins going away. And Sonoma is a good place for this to occur. He's won two of the past four races, and his average starting position in 10 Sonoma starts is 3.8 — read that again, 3.8. Larson wins on Sunday, scoring what would be a series-best fourth win of 2025. Do you have a long shot you like? Jeff: Wow, I think the oddsmakers are really putting themselves at risk for a big payout with Chase Briscoe at +4000. Briscoe has been the third-fastest car on road courses this season, according to Auto Racing Analytics, and he also had the third-fastest car at Chicago behind SVG and Michael McDowell. I don't think it's far-fetched at all to think Briscoe could win at a place where his crew chief, James Small, and the No. 19 won just two years ago. Jordan: Ross Chastain has the second-best average (12.4), trailing only Chase Elliott (11.1), and has four top-10 finishes in five career Sonoma starts. And with Chastain listed at +3000 on some boards, he definitely qualifies as a great sleeper pick this weekend. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Shane van Gisbergen: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
New York Times
27-06-2025
- Automotive
- New York Times
Your guide to NASCAR's in-season tournament, starting Saturday in Atlanta: How it works, picks and more
This week's NASCAR Cup Series race isn't just another race: It's the first leg of the league's inaugural 'In-Season Challenge,' a bracket-style competition with five rounds of eliminations, ending with the championship at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27. It's NASCAR's take on the in-season tournament model long leveraged by international soccer and recently introduced to the NBA. Advertisement Starting this weekend at Atlanta, the next five Cup Series races make up the entire challenge: Atlanta, Chicago, Sonoma, Dover and Indianapolis. Our motorsports experts Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi are here to explain how it works, who they think could win it and why it's likely to be wildly unpredictable — nay, chaotic! Plus, they'll run down their favorites and long shots for Saturday's race in Atlanta. Before we get to the Q&A and full explanation of how this all works, here's a breakdown of the seeding and head-to-head matchups for the Challenge. Scroll to the end for how-to-watch info and odds. Top half of draw Bottom half of draw The time has finally arrived for the inaugural NASCAR In-Season Challenge. Remind us: What exactly is this thing? Jeff: On his 'Actions Detrimental' podcast two years ago, three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin proposed an idea: Why doesn't NASCAR have some sort of head-to-head, in-season tournament that could be overlaid on the regular season races? NASCAR typically has a summer lull before the final push to the playoffs begins, and with few other sports on TV except for baseball after the NBA and NHL championships are decided, NASCAR should have a chance to draw a lot more eyeballs — especially from sports gamblers. So for two years, the driver hosted his 'Denny Hamlin Bracket Challenge,' where fans could play along with picks over a stretch of races. It was unofficial, of course, but still made for good fun and conversation. Now, with new TV partner TNT, NASCAR has decided to officially do the bracket challenge as an in-season tournament. Drivers will compete in a March Madness-style bracket for the next five weeks, with the winner receiving a $1 million prize. Advertisement How do you think this is going to play out? Jordan: There is genuine optimism that fans will buy in, creating excitement at a time of the season when NASCAR can hit a lull. And with the uniqueness of the five tracks that make up the challenge, there should be enough unexpected twists and turns to produce upsets and keep things interesting. As for whether this enhances the on-track competition, there is doubt. Drivers and teams are already doing everything they can each week to run and finish as well as they can, so it's hard to imagine that this challenge somehow pushes them even further. Nor is it likely that a team would potentially sacrifice a good finish by employing an out-of-the-box strategy in an attempt to advance to the next round, fearing that the call could backfire and potentially cost them valuable points. When The Athletic has asked teams in recent weeks about how they'll approach these races, every team said they were giving it no consideration and their focus was simply on running as well as they can each week. That said, let's see if this changes at all in the later rounds, where winning the $1 million prize becomes more attainable. The first round is being held at Atlanta, which is now a superspeedway. Considering the head-to-head matchups and the chaos that Atlanta usually brings, who are your favorites to make it to the next round, and who are a few long shots who might beat their rival? Jeff: If you're new to NASCAR — hi, first of all. Good news and bad news here. The good news is it's going to be a wild race. A few years ago, Atlanta was reconfigured to be a 'drafting' track like Daytona (if you've ever watched the Daytona 500) and Talladega. Big packs of cars and big crashes. But the bad news is that those big crashes could easily take out some of the huge contenders. This is basically a wild-card round where a lot of top seeds will immediately be gone — and probably not even because they did anything incorrectly, other than be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Advertisement That said, some drivers are better than others at positioning themselves toward the front (where they have a better chance of avoiding crashes). I really like Austin Cindric (19 seed) in his matchup over Zane Smith (14) and Ross Chastain (13) over Erik Jones (20). Both of them should be in contention for the win, but the sportsbooks are onto them — both have terrible value and are -200 favorites or longer. In terms of upsets in the actual odds, my picks include John Hunter Nemechek (+150) over Josh Berry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+150) over Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick (+120) over Kyle Larson and Justin Haley (+145) over Ty Gibbs. Jordan: Any time NASCAR heads to a drafting track, Joey Logano is automatically considered one of the favorites to win. However, based on seeding alone, the No. 25-ranked Logano is an underdog against No. 8 Alex Bowman. But it would not be a surprise at all if Logano knocks Bowman off and advances. In fact, there is a strong possibility this will happen. Another matchup to watch for is No. 28 Austin Dillon against No. 5 Chase Elliott. Although Elliott is strong on drafting tracks — he's won at both Atlanta and Talladega — so too is Dillon. And with Dillon buried in points and needing a win to make the playoffs, it's not out of the realm of possibility that he's more willing to take chances than Elliott, who's in the hunt to win the regular season points championship. What do you think is the most glaring mismatch in the seeding for Round 1? And which matchup is the toughest to call? Jeff: If you haven't followed this concept so far, the seeding is totally wacky. Instead of basing the seeding on the point standings (first through 32nd), NASCAR decided to seed the drivers based on their best finish over the last three races. The result is some frankly stupid matchups: Regular-season points leader William Byron is the No. 18 seed against No. 15 seed Ryan Preece — and yet Byron is a -220 favorite. Cindric is a -250 favorite over Smith, despite being a worse seed. Same with Joey Logano (-175), a No. 25 seed matched up against No. 8 seed Alex Bowman. I agree with the oddsmakers on all of those. But in terms of the toughest to call? Dang, that Bubba Wallace vs. Daniel Suárez matchup is a total tossup. Wallace is a great superspeedway racer, and Suárez has been great at Atlanta (including a win last year). Good luck figuring this one out. Jordan: Sure, the Logano vs. Bowman noted above jumps out, but the fact that this is a drafting track means there are no glaring mismatches because of how unpredictable these types of races usually are. Many, many of the drivers seeded towards the bottom of the bracket are quite capable of winning at Atlanta, and it wouldn't be at all shocking. It's going to be fascinating to see what the bracket looks like and who's left standing after the race. OK, it's prediction time: Who are your final four for the in-season tournament and who do you have winning it all? Jeff: The way this bracket stacks up is absolutely, laughably, bonkers insane. A superspeedway chaos bomb to open it, followed by two road courses before we get to two 'normal' tracks to end. By that time, a lot of the favorites (or big names at least) could easily have been eliminated. Picking these three tracks for the first three rounds was certainly a choice. That said, my picks are probably a bit surprising. I've got one semifinal between Trackhouse Racing teammates Suárez (24) and Chastain (13) and the other between Tyler Reddick (23) and Michael McDowell (11). Then I've got Chastain and Reddick moving on from Dover into the final at Indianapolis, and Reddick winning it all. Which feels … not great! Reddick isn't even running very well, and 23XI Racing doesn't seem to have the same speed or momentum lately. Picking him is a strange choice, except I think the matchups favor him with the road courses, and then he'll have enough speed on the ovals. I am worried about him immediately getting eliminated by Kyle Larson in Round 1 at Atlanta, of course. Advertisement Jordan: The Team Chaos committee welcomes NASCAR scheduling the challenge as it did with three 'wildcard' tracks among the five. Bring on the chaos. The only quibble is that Talladega wasn't included in place of Indianapolis or Dover to really amp up the chaos factor. As for what my bracket looks like: I have Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher and Kyle Larson in my final four. These four drivers are strong on just about every type of track, particularly road courses, which will go a long way to determining who makes the final four. Now back to business as usual: Who is your favorite to win outright at Atlanta? Jeff: As mentioned earlier about Cindric, he's become known as maybe the best superspeedway racer of late. The three Team Penske drivers are the top three in odds, which makes sense, and Cindric is tied for second. But since superspeedways are so random, he's still +1000. Could be a nice value there if he pulls through. Jordan: Any one of Team Penske's three drivers should be on anyone's short list of favorites, with Cindric, Logano and Ryan Blaney so strong on these types of tracks. But Blaney has to be the pick. In the seven races at Atlanta since it was reconfigured, Blaney has finished outside the top 10 just once and has finished second, third and fourth in the past three races here. Who is a long shot you like to win it? Jeff: 'Long shot' is a pretty tough definition this week since the odds are so long for almost everyone. Instead of going extreme, I'll go somewhat realistic and say Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at +4000. Stenhouse is aggressive, he's great at superspeedways and he's in a must-win situation for the playoffs. Pull those belts tight if you're around the No. 47 car, because he's going to be going all out. Jordan: With so many long-shot possibilities this week that could realistically cash in, here's a few that pop out: Carson Hocevar (+2500), Bubba Wallace (+2800), Daniel Suárez (+2800), Michael McDowell (+4500), Ryan Preece (+5000) and Noah Gragson (+6500). All of these drivers have a reasonable chance of winning Saturday night. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Kyle Larson: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
New York Times
21-06-2025
- Automotive
- New York Times
NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono Raceway odds, expert predictions for Great American Getaway 400
The NASCAR Cup Series is in Pennsylvania this weekend for The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway. As drivers prepare to face NASCAR's 'Tricky Triangle,' we're getting race insights from our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. They'll fill us in on NASCAR's future in San Diego, the roiling feud between Carson Hocevar and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and of course, favorites and long shots for Sunday's race. Take it away, guys! Jordan reported that NASCAR is nearing a deal for a Cup Series street course race in San Diego. Will this replace Chicago, or will it be an additional street race? What are your thoughts on the increasing street course races in the NASCAR schedule? How does it shift strategy among teams? Jeff: Personally, I think there's only room for one street course race per year in NASCAR. A street course needs to be highlighted in its own way, and it could quickly become less special if there are multiple per season. It's sort of like the NHL's Winter Classic when it was diluted with the Stadium Series; there's a careful balance when it comes to these special events. NASCAR is not traditionally a road racing series (it only had two road course races per season for decades) and certainly wasn't a circuit with street races until a couple of years ago, with the addition of Chicago. Fans are already weary of too many non-ovals anyway, but it's certainly an opportunity for teams like Trackhouse Racing, who can hire a road course ace to launch them into the playoffs. Advertisement Jordan: While NASCAR's original three-year contract with the city of Chicago is up at the end of the year, the possibility is there that NASCAR could return next year by exercising the option it holds. But to Jeff's point, having two street courses on the schedule could potentially take away some of the novelty, which is part of the appeal of doing this. Plus, there is the cost to consider when staging two such races. It certainly isn't cheap. Looking at it from the team perspective, it's a further indication that the schedule going forward, consisting of five to six road/street courses and six drafting tracks, will continue to feature a good mix of various tracks. Whew, Carson Hocevar really can't keep himself out of trouble, can he? (Though it seems he's good at apologies!) What do you think will happen with him and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.? Is it really just a coincidence that Stenhouse was the one Hocevar had a run-in with? Is that just bad luck or intentional? Could this boost performance for either of them? Is this a powder keg about to blow? Jeff: Yeah, Stenhouse is not going to let this one go. Unfortunately for Hocevar, that was the worst possible person he could have collided with, and it shows bad judgment on his part, because it was completely unnecessary. Hocevar was a lap down at the time, and he shouldn't have even let himself get close enough to Stenhouse for them to have contact; Hocevar wasn't racing for anything but cleaned Stenhouse out. Whoops. So now Stenhouse is going to have to enact some sort of revenge, or he'll come across as not being a man of his word, which is antithetical to his personal code. In other words, Hocevar either needs to watch his back or his rear-view mirror. Jordan: Word of advice for Carson Hocevar: If you see Ricky Stenhouse Jr. this weekend and he's wearing his shorts with the camo design, quickly walk in the other direction. I believe this is the final race to determine seeding for the in-season challenge. What should we know about this process, and what are the stakes at Pocono for that tournament? Do the drivers care? Is this on the teams' minds? Jeff: This has been such a silly way to seed the in-season tournament. Instead of just taking the point standings and going 1 vs. 32, 2 vs. 31, etc., NASCAR has been seeding the top 32 drivers over a three-week stretch based on their best finish. So the No. 1 seed right now is Denny Hamlin, who won at Michigan and then didn't even race last week at Mexico City. Meanwhile, Joey Logano is the No. 27 seed — so would it be an 'upset' if he knocked off a No. 6 seed in Round 1? Of course not, and he'll probably be heavily favored. So, again, doing it this way is a miss and will only confuse bettors. As for whether the teams care, the answer is no — not until next week, anyway. Once we start seeing the matchups and they start getting asked about it, then it could be on their minds more. Advertisement Jordan: In addition to what Jeff said about the seeding, keep in mind that the opening tournament race is at Atlanta, a track with a well-deserved reputation for generating chaos where multi-car accidents are commonplace. There's a good chance the bracket will see some notables knocked out early, with a good number of 'Cinderellas' moving forward. Additionally, the fact that the Chicago Street Course follows Atlanta only creates additional opportunities for upsets to happen. It will be very interesting to see what this bracket looks like after a couple of races. Who is your favorite to win this weekend and why? Who has been dominant here in the past? Jeff: Denny Hamlin is Pocono's all-time wins leader — yes, all-time, not just among active drivers — with seven victories. That's almost too easy, and he's a heavy favorite after going win-win-second in the three Next Gen races there. Oh, what's that you say? You're not seeing a win for Hamlin in 2022? That's because he got disqualified for a very minor infraction (still illegal, but minor) after winning that year. For betting purposes, you need to view it as a win. But again, that seems like a pretty obvious pick, so if you're looking for slightly better value? Perhaps go with William Byron, who is Pocono's all-time leader in average finish despite never actually winning there. He has +800 odds. Jordan: That William Byron doesn't have another win or two or three this season is surprising, considering how dominant he's been at times. He's due, overdue, to finally get that second victory, and Pocono represents a great place to do it. He's finished in the top 10 in over 50 percent of his starts here, and this is one of those tracks where the best teams in a given season tend to shine. Also, don't be surprised if Kyle Larson puts a tough few weeks behind him by putting a classic No. 5-team stomping on the field where he sweeps the stages, leads a ton of laps and rolls to the win. Who is a long shot you like here? Jeff: Pocono is the type of race where we could see an upset if fuel mileage plays out the right way. But that doesn't help you much, because there are a lot of people to choose from in that regard. A better play might be to see if you can parlay a couple of plus-money top-10 picks together. Like, is it a stretch to think AJ Allmendinger (+10000 to win) and Michael McDowell (+20000) could both be in the top 10? Not at all. So maybe play around with that and see if you can come up with a combination that might work. After all, it would have been a great strategy last week when John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer landed surprising top-10s in Mexico City. Jordan: Legacy Motor Speedway has shown considerably more speed in its cars recently, and if this speed is again present on Sunday, Erik Jones at +8000 makes for a great sleeper pick. Among active drivers, he has the fifth-most top-five finishes and seventh-best average finish, and with Pocono being a track known for long green-flag runs, the opportunity could be there for LMC to gamble with a Hail Mary strategy to score an upset win. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Denny Hamlin: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
New York Times
14-06-2025
- Automotive
- New York Times
NASCAR Cup Series at Mexico City odds, expert predictions for Viva Mexico 250
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Mexico City for its first-ever event in Mexico and its first international points race in over six decades. The track is most known for hosting Formula One races, but NASCAR drivers will use a slightly altered 2.49-mile layout compared to F1's 2.67-mile layout, and they'll have to complete 29 more laps than the F1 race. Advertisement It's a massive event, with high stakes for the league's work to expand internationally. Plus, a brand-new track for the Cup Series brings new intrigue and unpredictability to this weekend's race. We're bringing our questions about the race — who could excel on the track, what the high altitude could mean for teams, etc. — to our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. Take it away, guys! I have to start with this softball: How hyped are you for the first-ever NASCAR Cup Series points race in Mexico? Jeff: My overriding emotion going into this whole experience is curiosity. I'm curious to see how the Mexican fans react — will they show up in huge numbers and bring the enthusiasm we see at Formula One races? — and how the Mexican media covers it. I'm curious to see what NASCAR drivers think of the city and the racetrack and whether they would like to return. I'm curious to see what the team members, many of whom seem somewhat skeptical about foreign travel, take away from the event. And how will the racing be? So while I'm excited, I'm also just interested in the unknowns. Jordan: Should be an electric, festive atmosphere with an environment that hopefully elevates the race to the point that people watching at home get the sense of just how big a deal this race is. Because NASCAR adding Mexico City to the schedule is a big deal. This is the first time since 1958 that NASCAR's premier series has raced outside the continental United States, and having an international points race is something NASCAR and many of its teams have sought to accomplish for some time. So the fact that they were able to pull it off is commendable. Jeff shared some insights this week into how drivers and teams are preparing for the altitude in Mexico City. Which teams do you think stand to gain the most advantage from this change? Who adapts best? Does it help even the playing field or exacerbate disparities? Jeff: I personally think the altitude thing is overblown in terms of the athletes. As a Denver resident who lives at 5,280 feet, I don't think 7,300 feet will be much of a shock to these drivers' bodies. Sure, they might get out of breath a little bit quicker. But it's not like they're climbing Everest here. That said, I don't fault anyone (like the Toyota drivers) who are preparing as much as they can; why not, right? Better safe than sorry. I think the bigger issue is the engines running hotter and generating less horsepower, which the engine builders and tuners will have to figure out. But it's hard to tell who could benefit. Advertisement Jordan: When you look back at the four-year stretch when the Xfinity Series raced at Mexico City (2005-08), the altitude didn't seem to have much effect on either the drivers or the cars' performance. And with nearly every driver in good shape, the expectation is that they should be able to adapt to conditions that will be unlike any they face throughout the season. Whether this also applies to the cars' performance or not, we'll see. One issue to be mindful of is the concern many teams have regarding overheating the engine, as the high altitude can put a strain on this, especially during caution laps when engine temperatures tend to rise more due to reduced air circulation brought on by the slower laps. If there are a number of cautions on Sunday, don't be surprised if some teams begin to fight mechanical gremlins. I love a sports crossover moment, so I really enjoyed reading your account of Chase Briscoe drawing inspiration from the Indiana Pacers' clutch play in the NBA playoffs. What is the outlook for Briscoe over the next several races? With his three consecutive starts in pole position, what's not connecting for Briscoe in his races? Do any other drivers strike you as a Pacers' comp in terms of surprising us with a second-half surge? Jeff: It's clear Briscoe has speed, but the team doesn't seem to be able to keep up with the track during the race, and they have faded (or had bad things happen). But it was only a month ago that Briscoe said he was finally getting the feel of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars after joining the team in the offseason; he still has time to put it all together and win a race before the playoffs (thus eliminating the points-bubble talk). In terms of other drivers who could be a 'We should have never counted this person out!' Pacers-like performer? I'll go with Brad Keselowski. He's had a horrible start to the year, but has shown enough flashes of speed lately that you could see him jumping up and salvaging the season with a victory before the playoffs. Jordan: Briscoe has had a good start to his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. He's won a series-best four poles, his six top-five finishes rank sixth best, and he is 21 points above the cut line to make the playoffs. But the one thing Briscoe has yet to do is win, and this, ultimately, is likely going to define whether his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing is deemed successful. His team has had speed most weeks, especially on intermediate-sized tracks, and now they have to convert this speed into consistent top-end results. Who is your favorite to win this week? Jeff: This is going to be tough as we sit here before seeing any practice, as this is NASCAR's inaugural visit to the track. In addition, the Xfinity Series race here in the mid-2000s (the last of which was won by Kyle Busch) had a different layout. But without the ability to see who unloads fastest and gets up to speed quickly, I'll jump on board with Tyler Reddick. Yes, it's tempting to pick Shane van Gisbergen — but he's a fairly significant favorite, and sometimes that can be a trap. Reddick has won four career road course poles, including the inaugural NASCAR race at the other shared F1 track, Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin. He has never finished outside the top 10 when he wins a road-course pole. If you look at his team as a whole, including the pit crew, it is stronger than SVG's. Maybe I'm talking myself into it just to pick someone other than SVG, but Reddick is a good choice. Jordan: This is actually a more wide-open race than many think, and a good case could be made for any number of drivers. Denny Hamlin would have been near the top of the list, but won't race due to the birth of his son. Reddick is certainly up there, and so too are Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell. But this is also a great opportunity for the likes of van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger, two drivers who excel on road courses and likely need a win to make the playoffs. So, forced to go with a pick, let's go with van Gisbergen. He should have little issue getting up to speed, and his team knows they need to win and that points are rather meaningless, which allows them to set up their strategy accordingly. All the unknowns favor a driver who won the last time NASCAR visited a track so different than what NASCAR typically races on (the Chicago street course). Advertisement Who is a long shot you like? Jeff: Looking at the odds list, the lowest I'd go is Briscoe at +4000. He's a good road racer and will have a fast car, so he should be higher than that. Austin Cindric has the same odds and is another solid pick on road courses, but he had a very disappointing outing at COTA earlier this season, which gives me pause. But there are plenty of excellent road racers with so-so odds who could win: Michael McDowell at +2500, Ty Gibbs at +3000. Heck, Alex Bowman is +3000 and won the Chicago street course race last year. Jordan: Austin Cindric at +3500 is enticing, considering the Team Penske driver comes from a road-course background and should be among the contenders on Sunday. Don't overlook Bowman, who may be in a slump but did surprise everyone by winning at Chicago last year. And Kyle Busch at +1400 has good value considering he nearly won at COTA earlier this year. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Daniel Suarez: James Gilbert / Getty Images)
