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Forbes
2 days ago
- Climate
- Forbes
Texas Flood Disaster - The Case For A Weather Radio Renaissance?
A member of the public looks out at flooding caused by a flash flood at the Guadalupe River in ... More Kerrville, Texas, on July 5, 2025. Rescuers were desperately searching for at least 20 girls missing from a riverside summer camp, officials said on July 5, after torrential rains caused a "catastrophic" flash flood that killed at least 24 people as it swept through south-central Texas. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP) (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP via Getty Images) The catastrophic flooding in the hill country of Texas is the latest U.S. extreme weather event to cause significant disruption. At the time of writing, the death toll had surpassed 50, and many people are still missing. As this tragedy unfolds, every stone should be flipped to find ways to prevent such horrific loss of life. Some experts believe the Texas floods make the case for a weather radio renaissance. The Last Mile As I wrote in a companion piece this weekend, the National Weather Service issued guidance and warning information in the days to hours leading up to the massive flood event. However, questions exist about whether there were challenges getting the information across what my colleague Bob Henson calls the 'last mile' to the public via emergency management and communication channels. By the way, Henson and his colleague Jeff Masters wrote a great analysis on this flood catastrophe. Crews work to clear debris from the Cade Loop bridge along the Guadalupe River on Saturday, July 5, ... More 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP Photo/Rodolfo Gonzalez) Though weather forecasts were within expectations of sound verification, a couple of familiar challenges emerged. First, narratives that say the 'bullseye' in rainfall was off by 20 miles so the forecast was wrong are flawed. Decisions should be made based on current capabilities. If it rains in my subdivision, but not on my tomato garden, it is still a good forecast. We encounter significant challenges conveying to the public and decision-makers that pinpoint rainfall forecasts are an illusion so area-wide probabilistic forecasting has to be employed. Second, I have seen officials say things like, 'We are used to flooding in this region.' This is a classic case of 'normalcy bias.' I witnessed almost the exact narrative from some officials in Houston after Hurricane Harvey (2017). I co-authored a 2024 National Academy report on compound disasters. One finding was that people have benchmark storms from the past in their minds that may hindered preparation for current or future events that may be more intense, stronger or more frequent. 3 Day Rainfall Totals throught July 6, 2025. Some early reports point to NWS staff shortages hindering handoff to the EM community, but it may be too early draw these conclusions. Other analyses have questioned the warning or alert infrastructure in what is known as 'Flash Flood Alley.' Why isn't there a more extensive real-time warning or siren system present along those river regions populated by camps and RV parks? Is it time to reconsider the location of facilities along flood-prone rivers in the Texas Hill Country? After all, this will happen again. The region is situated in hilly terrain, receives a lot of Gulf moisture and remnant tropical systems, and climate change is, on average, boosting the intensity of rain falling from storms. I know, I know. This region had flood events naturally before climate change. It is also true that atmospheric and ocean warming makes more moisture available to storms and increasing rainfall rates. It is not "either/or." It is 'and.' Additionally, more paved surfaces increase runoff and flawed assumptions of stationarity in stormwater engineering amplify floods. But I digress. I spoke with former NWS meteorologist Bart Hagemeyer who spent 37 years in the nation's forecast agency. Hagemeyer, who retired as the Meteorologist-In-Charge at the NWS Melbourne office, reflected on nocturnal tornado disasters in central Florida that he had been involved with in 1998 and 2007, respectively. Combined, 63 people were killed in those two events. Speaking on the Texas flooding, he told me, 'The warnings and watches were timely and what would be considered state of the art, but many people died, and that's hard. It usually boils down to how or if people got the warnings at what time and what actions did they take if they had time.' Hagemeyer has been a long-time advocate of NOAA Weather Radio. He said, 'Historically the NWS has always stressed having a plan for your family, business or whatever entity needs protecting and having at least two different ways to get warning information at all times, but especially during the night and one of those is the NOAA Weather Radio.' So Why Weather Radios? The Texas Tribune reported, 'All NWS flash flood warnings, including the one issued after midnight on Friday, triggered Wireless Emergency Alerts, the emergency push notification sent through cellphone towers to all wireless phones in the emergency area. Bob Fogarty, a NWS meteorologist told reporter Paul Cobler, 'That warning was updated nine times throughout Friday, each of which triggered separate alerts through the Emergency Alert System and the Wireless Emergency Alerts." Did people receive these notices. It was nighttime, so many people likely did not have immediate access to their phones. Texas Hill Country is also complex terrain, which means there are likely pockets of spotty cellular coverage. Texas as viewed from space by a NASA MODIS instrument. NOAA weather radios have been a staple for decades to warn people about hazardous weather, particularly at night. Officially known as NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, the NOAA website said, 'NWR is a nationwide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous weather information directly from the nearest National Weather Service office. NWR broadcasts official Weather Service warnings, watches, forecasts and other hazard information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.' I have one in my house, but like many of you, I have grown more reliant on cellphone Wireless Emergence Alerts. The NOAA website went on to say, 'NWR is provided as a public service by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the Department of Commerce…. NWR requires a special radio receiver or scanner capable of picking up the signal." NWR broadcasts on seven frequencies (162.40 to 162.55 MHz range) and up to 40 miles from the transmitter. The current listing of NOAA weather radio stations in Texas indicates that some are out of service, but the ones in Hill Country are active. Hagemyer told me, 'It sets off a loud alert when a warning is issued for your county and has battery backup so it works whether there is power or not….. We used to put out statements in the evening reminding people to have their weather radios on before they go to bed when we expected overnight tornadoes.' He noted that most of the discussion in the wake of the Texas flooding has focused on cellphone coverage rather than having a backup plan. Propagation maps for the NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in the Hill Country region. The Renaissance? NWR is specifically designed to send out an alert over the airwaves to inexpensive programmable radio receivers within seconds of the NWS meteorologist pushing the enter button on a critical warning. The map above shows the NWR propagation extent for Texas. It appears that affected regions were covered. Hagemeyer also said, "I thought of it immediately as a key tool for campground managers for backup warning receipt to implement their plans." He went on to say, 'I suspect NWR is not very sexy to talk about. When 42 people died overnight in the central Florida tornado disaster of 1998 I was on Good Morning America and CNN the next morning literally holding a NWR and touting its importance, nothing has changed to diminish its utility.' A NOAA Weather Radio Dave Jones is a meteorologist and CEO of Stormcenter Communications, Inc and agrees with the NWS veteran. He told me, 'I believe that every camp, camp ground, RV park and outdoor gathering place should have at least a working NOAA weather radio and a policy of passing on warnings to their guests.' He also thinks that procedures for communicating a clear evacuation plan are needed. He closed by saying, 'I've stayed in many campgrounds and they tend to have a speaker system where they make announcements. Why don't these exist everywhere? Safety first should mean SAFETY FIRST.' KERRVILLE, TEXAS - JULY 05: Flood waters left debris including vehicles and equipment scattered in ... More Louise Hays Park on July 5, 2025 in Kerrville, Texas. Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas with multiple fatalities reported. (Photo by)
Newsweek
08-06-2025
- Climate
- Newsweek
Thousands of Americans Told To Avoid Outdoor Exercise
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Air quality alerts have been issued in several U.S. states as smoke from wildfires flows into the U.S. from Canada. Why It Matters Smoke blowing across the northern and eastern U.S. from Canada over the last week has resulted in a hazy skies and poor air quality. High levels of smoke and pollution present a health hazard, especially for vulnerable populations such as children, seniors, and individuals with existing medical conditions. What To Know New York, Maine, Minnesota, and Vermont all have Air Quality Alerts from the National Weather Service in place on Sunday. The Maine Department of Environmental Protection's (DEP) Bureau of Air Quality has warned of particle pollution until 11 p.m. ET Sunday evening. The DEP advises those affected to consider reducing strenuous outdoor activity or exercise to lower the risk of health issues from elevated pollution levels, especially young children, the elderly, people with asthma or other respiratory conditions, individuals with heart disease, and anyone engaged in physically demanding outdoor work. If you experience symptoms like coughing, shortness of breath, throat irritation, or chest discomfort, it's recommended to limit both the intensity and duration of your time outside. Man running along FDR Drive on the east side of the New York City borough of Manhattan. Man running along FDR Drive on the east side of the New York City borough of Manhattan. GETTY In Vermont, a currently active warning for the entire state expires at midnight ET, while in Minnesota, the warning expires at 11 p.m. CT. In New York, several warnings are active, which do not currently have an expiration time or date. In the spring and summer of 2023, massive wildfires in Quebec and Ontario sent heavy smoke across the northeastern U.S. On several occasions, New York City experienced thick, hazardous air conditions due to the smoke. What People Are Saying Jeff Masters, meteorologist, writing for Yale Climate Connections: "With fire danger at very high levels throughout much of Canada, we can anticipate that these major smoke-emitting fires will continue to burn for an extended period. "Furthermore, the long-range fire forecast calls for above-average fire risk over much of the forested areas of western Canada and the western U.S. this summer, and we should anticipate frequent bouts of poor air quality from wildfire smoke across much of North America." AccuWeather's Brett Anderson said that while some fires have been put out, "some of the big ones in remote areas are likely going to continue, unfortunately, through the summer into the fall." What Happens Next Canada's wildfire season runs from March to October, throughout the spring and summer months and into the fall. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center, there were 217 active fires across the country as of Saturday, June 7, with 94 of them considered "out of control." Most fires are located in British Columbia, 72, while there are 52 burning to the east in Alberta.
Forbes
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Forbes
Hurricane Season Starts June 1st - Beware Of Clickbait Posts
As the National Hurricane Center monitors a potential storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on Sunday. This season grabs our attention because its storms often impact the U.S. It is a time of year that brings additional anxiety, concern, and caution to many coastal regions, and increasingly, inland ones too. NOAA and other expert organizations have predicted another potentially active season, but it is important to remember that it only takes one hurricane to alter lives or regions. As June 1st approaches, another season also begins. It's called 'clickbait' season. 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. NOAA A fisherman uses bait to lure a fish to the line. Social media has introduced us to different type of bait. I will define clickbait as the inclusion of provocative, sensational, or emotionally-appealing content in social media posts, headlines, videos, and other platforms with the intent of luring clicks, shares, or likes. Merriam-Webster's online dictionary defined it as, 'Something (such as a headline) designed to make readers want to click on a hyperlink especially when the link leads to content of dubious value or interest.' There are even scholarly studies on clickbait, how it is utilized, and the psychology behind it. Irrespective of how we choose to define it, many meteorologist cringe during hurricane season because it is often utilized. People grab a single model run and post that a hurricane is going to be in the Gulf or off the coast of the Carolinas in two weeks. As good as our long-range forecast models have become, they often produce storms that come and go from run to run. It's generally a bad idea to consume information from a single deterministic model run anyhow. Better practice involves using information from multiple models, their ensemble of information, and over reasonable time windows. Bob Henson and Jeff Masters have provided a great '101' on hurricane models and how they performed last year. Dr. Bradford Johnson is a meteorologist and professor of geography at Florida State University. He nailed it when he wrote, 'While this is a great opportunity to think about your preparation for the coming months, I will provide a word of wisdom. Anyone posting about potential storms two weeks from now is not giving you actionable information. They are farming for your clicks.' He went on to point out that this is true in May or September, and end with, 'Seek credible sources.' Weather model information is publicly available, but the context for understanding them is more limited. "Wishcasting' is something that I see during hurricane season and during the winter. People get excited about a potential weather scenario and post model outcomes that align with their wishes. We are also in the era of 'monetized' social media and Internet activity, which drives clickbait. Other motives may include growing followers, harvesting affirmation, and deliberately sowing confusion. As hurricane season progresses, it is important to remember to follow the W.I.N.D approach - Weigh the validity of the information, Identify the source, Note inconsistencies with consensus forecasts, and Decide whether it is harmful to share. My other advice is also pretty simple. Know what the official forecast is from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Forbes
05-04-2025
- Climate
- Forbes
3 Things To Watch For As Another Active Hurricane Season Looms
IN SPACE - OCTOBER 8: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party ... More organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy.) In this NASA handout, Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm at the time of this photograph, is pictured in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula on October 8, 2024 seen from the International Space Station as it orbited 257 miles above. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images) Earlier this week, forecasters at Colorado State University issued its first forecast for the 2025 hurricane season. They call for another above-average season. This prediction comes at a time when the nation is still recovering from devastating hurricanes in 2024 and adjusting to sweeping federal changes. Here are three things to keep an eye on as the June 1st start date for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches. ST PETERSBURG - OCTOBER 10: In this aerial view, the roof of Tropicana Field is seen in tatters ... More after Hurricane Milton destroyed it as the storm passed through the area on October 10, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by) Sea Surface Temperatures In The Atlantic Basin The seasonal hurricane forecasting group at CSU calls for 17 named storms with 9 hurricanes, and 4 of them exceeding the threshold for 'major.' According to the group, a typical year has about 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes with 3 reaching category 3 or greater. Their website pointed out, 'Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.' Other forecasting groups are likely to issue similar numbers in the coming weeks. Global sea surface temperatures show a waning La Nina and warm Atlantic and Gulf sea surface ... More temperatures. The Fate Of La Niña La Niña conditions in the eastern Pacific region are expected to transition back to a neutral state though the exact evolution into the summer and fall is still uncertain. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team warned, 'A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The group considers other factors in their assessment including five analog years, which suggest an active season. However, hurricane expert and former hurricane hunter Jeff Masters cautioned that April forecasts should be taken with a "grain of salt." He wrote, 'This does not mean a particular April forecast will be incorrect — just that, on average, a forecast simply using climatology would do as well or better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called spring predictability barrier.' What's that? It is a time period in which the La Niña, neutral, or El Niño transition can be a bit volatile. CSU will issue another forecast in June, and NOAA will debut its prediction in May, according to Masters. ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 28: Heavy rains from hurricane Helene caused record flooding ... More and damage on September 28, 2024 in Asheville, North Carolina. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida's Big Bend on Thursday night with winds up to 140 mph and storm surges that killed at least 42 people in several states. (Photo by Melissa) NOAA's Capacity Beyond atmospheric and oceanic conditions, it will be important to monitor NOAA's capacity and morale. The National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center are true heroes providing critical weather information and warnings for individuals, businesses, and our national security stakeholders. According to the Associated Press, roughly 55 of 122 NWS field offices reached vacancy rates of 20% in the wake of recent cuts at the agency. AP reported that eight offices are missing at least 35% of their staff members. 'Kermit', a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3D Orion hurricane hunter ... More aircraft sits on the tarmac of the Coast Guard Air Station at Opa Locka Airport on May 12, 2017 in Miami, Florida. The aircraft is part of NOAA's Hurricane Preparedness Week, May 7-13, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / RHONA WISE (Photo credit should read RHONA WISE/AFP via Getty Images) Prior to recent cuts, it had been reported that NWS offices were already understaffed. Some offices have cut back on services like launching weather balloons, which provide critical atmospheric data for the weather forecast models. Some offices, including some that recently experienced deadly tornadic storms in their forecast area, delayed damage assessments, according to AP. During an initial round of cuts, several flight crew members in the critical NOAA Hurricane Hunters were fired, but some of them have since been rehired, according to USA Today. The National Hurricane Center broke records in 2024 for track forecast accuracy. According to an agency website, 'The mean track errors at every forecast interval (12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 h) broke records for accuracy, meaning that NHC's 2024 forecast track performance was its best in history.' The planes, computer models, observations, ocean measurements and radar data are critical to that success. When Hurricane Helene (2024) and Hurricane Milton (2024) approached the U.S., we were not caught off guard and had ample time to prepare. Beyond equipment and data, the morale of meteorologists, pilots, and other staff within NOAA is just as vital to their life-saving mission. And they always show up. MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 31: Michael Brennan, Chief Hurricane Specialist Unit, walks past the hurricane ... More tracking map at the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center as the media is given a tour before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on May 31, 2019 in Miami, Florida. With the 2019 hurricane season beginning on June 1, 2019 and ending on November 30, 2019 officials are encouraging people to make sure they are prepared for the season with supplies and plans in place in case a storm hits their area. (Photo by)
