Latest news with #JoeriRogelj
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
More than 60 scientists issue dire warning that the Earth is careening toward catastrophe: 'Things are all moving in the wrong direction'
Our planet is speeding toward a dangerous temperature milestone, and dozens of climate scientists warn we could surpass it before the end of this decade. A group of more than 60 leading scientists warns that if the Earth continues its current levels of pollution and carbon pollution, average global temperatures in the next three years will likely surpass 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit over preindustrial levels, the BBC reported. That threshold is one agreed to by nearly 200 countries as part of the Paris Agreement as a level that the planet's temperature needs to stay below. If temperatures consistently surpass that number, the United Nations warns, the planet could see severe consequences. Ideally, the UN says, the planet wouldn't hit that 2.7-degree threshold before the end of this century. But since the treaty was signed, scientists say not enough has happened to limit carbon pollution. "Things are all moving in the wrong direction," University of Leeds climate researcher Piers Forster told the BBC. "We're seeing some unprecedented changes, and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well." The planet is warming at a rate of nearly half a degree Fahrenheit each decade — a level, the scientists note, that has never been seen before. The rate of warming is roughly double what it was 50 years ago. In fact, each of the 10 warmest years on record occurred within the past decade, with 2024 setting the all-time high mark. And that record is also expected to be broken within the next few years. As the planet gets warmer, extreme weather events are occurring with more frequency, more severity, or both. One expert has even referred to our warming climate as "steroids for weather." Scientists have pointed to the changing climate as a driving force behind events such as this year's deadly Los Angeles wildfires and last year's devastating Hurricane Helene. Although scientists are concerned about how fast we're speeding toward that 2.7-degree threshold, all hope is not lost. Do you worry about air pollution in your town? All the time Often Only sometimes Never Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. As more countries adopt green technologies and clean energy sources like solar and wind, the rate of harmful carbon pollution can slow down. And while some drastic carbon cuts will be needed to keep the planet from reaching that threshold, every bit of slowing helps. "Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," Imperial College London climate science professor Joeri Rogelj told the BBC. "Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire." Join our free newsletter for weekly updates on the latest innovations improving our lives and shaping our future, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
Sinar Daily
27-06-2025
- Science
- Sinar Daily
Warning signs on climate flashing bright red
PARIS - From carbon pollution to sea-level rise to global heating, the pace and level of key climate change indicators are all in unchartered territory, more than 60 top scientists warned recently. Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation hit a new high in 2024 and averaged, over the last decade, a record 53.6 billion tonnes per year -- that's 100,000 tonnes per minute -- of CO2 or its equivalent in other gases, they reported in a peer-reviewed update. A man fills bottles with water in New York City on June 24, 2025. A potentially life-threatening heat wave enveloped the eastern third of the United States on June 23 impacting nearly 160 million people, with temperatures this week expected to reach 102 degrees Fahrenheit (39 degrees Celsius) in the New York metropolitan area. Dangerously high temperatures are forecast through midweek in Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. (Photo by Leonardo Munoz / AFP) Earth's surface temperature last year breached 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time, and the additional CO2 humanity can emit with a two-thirds chance of staying under that threshold long-term -- our 1.5C "carbon budget" -- will be exhausted in a couple of years, they calculated. Investment in clean energy outpaced investment in oil, gas and coal last year two-to-one, but fossil fuels account for more than 80 percent of global energy consumption, and growth in renewables still lags behind new demand. Included in the 2015 Paris climate treaty as an aspirational goal, the 1.5C limit has since been validated by science as necessary for avoiding a catastrophically climate-addled world. The hard cap on warming to which nearly 200 nations agreed was "well below" two degrees, commonly interpreted to mean 1.7C to 1.8C. "We are already in crunch time for these higher levels of warming," co-author Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, told journalists in a briefing. "The next three or four decades is pretty much the timeline over which we expect a peak in warming to happen." 'The wrong direction' No less alarming than record heat and carbon emissions is the gathering pace at which these and other climate indicators are shifting, according to the study, published in Earth System Science Data. Human-induced warming increased over the last decade at a rate "unprecedented in the instrumental record", and well above the 2010-2019 average registered in the UN's most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, in 2021. The new findings -- led by the same scientists using essentially the same methods -- are intended as an authoritative albeit unofficial update of the benchmark IPCC reports underpinning global climate diplomacy. They should be taken as a reality check by policymakers, the authors suggested. "I tend to be an optimistic person," said lead author Piers Forster, head of the University of Leed's Priestley Centre for Climate Futures. "But if you look at this year's update, things are all moving in the wrong direction." The rate at which sea levels have shot up in recent years is also alarming, the scientists said. After creeping up, on average, well under two millimetres per year from 1901 to 2018, global oceans have risen 4.3 mm annually since 2019. What happens next? An increase in the ocean watermark of 23 centimetres -- the width of a letter-sized sheet of paper -- over the last 125 years has been enough to imperil many small island states and hugely amplify the destructive power of storm surges worldwide. An additional 20 centimetres of sea level rise by 2050 would cause one trillion dollars in flood damage annually in the world's 136 largest coastal cities, earlier research has shown. Another indicator underlying all the changes in the climate system is Earth's so-called energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy entering the atmosphere and the smaller amount leaving it. So far, 91 percent of human-caused warming has been absorbed by oceans, sparing life on land an unlivable hell-scape. But the planet's energy imbalance has nearly doubled in the last 20 years, and scientists do not know how long oceans will continue to massively soak up this excess heat. Dire future climate impacts worse than what the world has already experienced are already baked in over the next decade or two. But beyond that, the future is in our hands, the scientists made clear. "We will rapidly reach a level of global warming of 1.5C, but what happens next depends on the choices which will be made," said co-author and former IPCC co-chair Valerie Masson-Delmotte. The Paris Agreement's 1.5C target allows for the possibility of ratcheting down global temperatures below that threshold before century's end. Ahead of a critical year-end climate summit in Brazil, international cooperation has been weakened by the US withdrawal the Paris Agreement. President Donald Trump's dismantling of domestic climate policies means the US is likely to fall short on its emissions reduction targets, and could sap the resolve of other countries to deepen their own pledges, experts say. - AFP
Time of India
21-06-2025
- Science
- Time of India
Paris climate target ‘will never die', remains world's ultimate goal: Researchers
BATHINDA: The world's expected passing of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit during this decade raises pressure for countries to submit bold emissions reduction plans before COP30 in November, two researchers have warned. Prof Joeri Rogelj and Lavanya Rajamani, in a paper published in Science, argues that determining precisely when the world crosses 1.5°C is not necessary, because the decisions needed in response – reduce emissions rapidly in the near term – are already clear and do not suddenly change at that point. Instead, getting closer to 1.5°C should be a wake-up call for the world to focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions this decade to limit the amount of warming the world experiences past 1.5°C to protect vulnerable groups, they say adding in the longer term reversing warming and getting below 1.5°C must be the goal. The paper follows the hottest year ever on record, commentary that the 1.5°C target is 'deader than a doornail' and the fact that only 21 out of 195 countries that signed the Paris Agreement have thus far submitted new five-year emissions reduction plans. Warming above 1.5°C greatly increases climate risks, including dangerous sea level rise, the collapse of coral reefs, the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Ductless Air Conditioners Are Selling Like Crazy [See Why] Keep Cool Click Here Undo Key arguments in the paper includes: Approaching or exceeding 1.5°C of warming does not extinguish the Paris Agreement's ambitious goal but makes urgent climate action even more important. The exact timing of when the world crosses 1.5°C is less important than sustained efforts to cut emissions. The Paris Agreement remains vital as a global framework to guide emissions cuts and adaptation efforts, despite geopolitical challenges. Professor Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said: '1.5°C of warming is just around the corner and it will take a herculean effort to avoid it. 'This is deeply concerning, but crossing it makes the target more important because every fraction of warming – whether it is 1.6, 2 or 3°C – creates a more dangerous world and the longer we stay above 1.5°C, the higher the losses and damages for people will be. 'The key message of our paper is that 1.5°C will never die. It will remain our ultimate goal for a safe, livable and just planet. We need to remember that reversing warming is not a new goal, but already a key aim of the Paris Agreement.' The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep warming 'well below 2°C' and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Small island states proposed the 1.5°C target in the late 2000s as a matter of survival – '1.5 to stay alive' – and since 2015, it has become the immediate goal in the fight to tackle climate change. However, the world is not currently on track to keeping warming below the Paris Agreement targets. Most countries are still burning large amounts of fossil fuels, which release emissions that cause the climate to warm. Global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C before the end of the decade, near 2°C by 2050, and rise to between 2.6°C and 3.1°C over the course of the century. These projections have resulted in commentary that 1.5°C is 'dead' and calls from some researchers to determine the precise timing of when 1.5°C is crossed. Professors Rogelj and Rajamani argue that exceeding 1.5°C does not mean abandoning the goal or triggering a specific policy shift for emissions reductions or adaptation needs but working harder to limit overshoot – the amount of warming experienced above 1.5°C . Their paper emphasises the need for countries to act with the highest ambition possible to bring emissions down to zero, achieve net-negative emissions, and get warming back below 1.5°C in the long-term. They note that even in a world that has crossed 1.5°C, countries and businesses can continue to follow emission pathways aligned with the target. The Paris Agreement remains the most important international tool for tackling climate change, particularly due to its requirement that countries submit plans to cut emissions every five years, the researchers say. While the deadline has been extended until September, just 21 of 195 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement have submitted their plan, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC. NDCs with the highest possible cuts to emissions will reduce the amount of time the world spends above 1.5°C and reduce harm to human life and ecosystems, the researchers say. Professor Lavanya Rajamani, Faculty of Law, University of Oxford, said: 'We want to reframe the way people talk about 1.5°C. Approaching or even surpassing it is a warning signal that states need to redouble their efforts, not to throw up their hands and declare 1.5°C 'over' or 'dead.' 'We need to stay focused on keeping warming below 1.5°C in the long term, and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change for people and the planet.' 'Our position is supported by a growing body of scientific evidence, the terms of the Paris Agreement, and the wider normative environment, including human rights obligations, that states are subject to.' Professor Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said: 'There is no such thing as a safe level of warming. 'Even below 1.5°C we see dangerous climate change. Devastating weather disasters in 2024 really made that clear – just think of the Valencia floods, Hajj heatwave and Hurricane Helene which collectively killed more than 1,500 people. 'Every tonne of carbon emitted and every fraction of a degree counts. That's why we need to see bold NDCs before the COP30 climate summit in November that deliver meaningful emissions reductions before the end of the decade. A focus on near-term reductions is key to limiting the harms that come with warming above 1.5°C.'
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Humanity could be just 3 years away from crossing a dire climate threshold, report warns
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Record greenhouse gas emissions could exhaust Earth's "carbon budget" in as little as three years, dooming the planet to breach the symbolic threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warming. Global warming of 2 C (3.6 F) is considered an important threshold — warming beyond this greatly increases the likelihood of devastating and irreversible climate breakdown that include extreme heatwaves, droughts and the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly 200 countries pledged to limit global temperature rises to ideally 1.5 C and safely below 2 C. Yet, according to a new assessment by more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists, this target is quickly moving out of reach — only 143 billion tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide remains before we have likely exceeded the Paris Agreement target, and humanity is already releasing over 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) each year. The researchers published their findings June 19 in the journal Earth System Science Data. "The window to stay within 1.5 C is rapidly closing," study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, said in a statement. "Global warming is already affecting the lives of billions of people around the world. Every small increase in warming matters, leading to more frequent, more intense weather extremes." Warnings that the Earth is careening beyond the 1.5 C limit, and the dire consequences that would follow from such a breach, are not new. In 2020, the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated Earth's remaining climate budget to be around 550 billion tons (500 billion metric tons). Related: Earth's energy imbalance is rising much faster than scientists expected — and now researchers worry they might lose the means to figure out why Yet with emissions reaching record highs in the years since, and the next IPCC report not due until 2029, the scientists behind the new annual study wanted to fill the gap. The paper made its assessment by looking at 10 indicators of climate change, including net greenhouse gas emissions, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, sea-level rises, global temperature extremes, and the remaining budget. The scientists' analysis makes for alarming reading, with warming occurring at a rate of about 0.49 F (0.27 C) each decade and the world standing at about 2.2 F (1.24 C) above preindustrial averages. This is causing extra heat to accumulate at more than double the rate seen in the 1970s and 1980s, and Earth is trapping heat 25% faster in this decade than it did in the last. Around 90% of this excess heat is being trapped in the oceans, disrupting marine ecosystems, melting ice and causing sea levels to rise at double the rate they were in the 1990s. RELATED STORIES —Climate wars are approaching — and they will redefine global conflict —Kids born today are going to grow up in a hellscape, grim climate study finds —Global carbon emissions reach new record high in 2024, with no end in sight, scientists say "Since 1900, the global mean sea level has risen by around 228 mm. This seemingly small number is having an outsized impact on low-lying coastal areas, making storm surges more damaging and causing more coastal erosion, posing a threat to humans and coastal ecosystems," co-author Aimée Slangen, a climatologist at the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, said in the statement. "The concerning part is that we know that sea-level rise in response to climate change is relatively slow, which means that we have already locked in further increases in the coming years and decades." The consequences of this warming are likely to hit humanity hard, with one recent study suggesting that yields of key crops such as maize and wheat in the U.S., China and Russia could drop by up to 40% before the end of the century. Another study has suggested an unprecedented global increase in drought severity is already underway, with 30% of Earth's land area experiencing moderate to extreme drought in 2022. Nonetheless, the report also stressed that global greenhouse gas emissions will likely peak this decade before decreasing. But for this to happen, we must continue to rapidly adopt wind, solar and other clean energy sources, while drastically reducing carbon emissions, the authors noted. "Emissions over the next decade will determine how soon and how fast 1.5°C of warming is reached," Rogelj said. "They need to be swiftly reduced to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement."
IOL News
20-06-2025
- Science
- IOL News
Warning signs on climate flashing bright red: top scientists
The planet's energy imbalance has nearly doubled in the last 20 years, and scientists do not know how long oceans will continue to massively soak up this excess heat. Image: Alan Kearney / Connect Images via AFP From carbon pollution to sea-level rise to global heating, the pace and level of key climate change indicators are all in uncharted territory, more than 60 top scientists warned Thursday. Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation hit a new high in 2024 and averaged, over the last decade, a record 53.6 billion tonnes per year -- that is 100,000 tonnes per minute -- of CO2 or its equivalent in other gases, they reported in a peer-reviewed update. Earth's surface temperature last year breached 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels for the first time, and the additional CO2 humanity can emit with a two-thirds chance of staying under that threshold long-term -- our 1.5C "carbon budget" -- will be exhausted in two years, they calculated. Investment in clean energy outpaced investment in oil, gas and coal last year two-to-one, but fossil fuels account for more than 80 percent of global energy consumption, and growth in renewables still lags behind new demand. Included in the 2015 Paris climate treaty as an aspirational goal, the 1.5C limit has since been validated by science as necessary for avoiding a catastrophically climate-addled world. The hard cap on warming to which nearly 200 nations agreed was "well below" two degrees, commonly interpreted to mean 1.7C to 1.8C. With the 1.5C level now expected to be breached in the coming years, "we are already in crunch time for these higher levels of warming," co-author Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, told journalists in a briefing. "The next three or four decades is pretty much the timeline over which we expect a peak in warming to happen." 'The wrong direction' No less alarming than record heat and carbon emissions is the gathering pace at which these and other climate indicators are shifting, according to the study, published in Earth System Science Data. Human-induced warming increased over the last decade at a rate "unprecedented in the instrumental record", and well above the 2010-2019 average registered in the UN's most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, in 2021. The new findings -- led by the same scientists using essentially the same methods -- are intended as an authoritative albeit unofficial update of the benchmark IPCC reports underpinning global climate diplomacy. They should be taken as a reality check by policymakers, the authors suggested. "If you look at this year's update, things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Piers Forster, head of the University of Leed's Priestley Centre for Climate Futures. The rate at which sea levels have shot up in recent years is also alarming, the scientists said. After creeping up, on average, well under two millimetres per year from 1901 to 2018, global oceans have risen 4.3 mm annually since 2019. What happens next? An increase in the ocean watermark of 23 centimetres (nine inches) over the last 125 years has been enough to imperil many small island states and hugely amplify the destructive power of storm surges worldwide. An additional 20 centimetres of sea level rise by 2050 would cause $1 trillion in flood damage annually in the world's 136 largest coastal cities, earlier research has shown. Another indicator underlying all the changes in the climate system is Earth's so-called energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy entering the atmosphere and the smaller amount leaving it. So far, 91 percent of human-caused warming has been absorbed by oceans, sparing life on land. But the planet's energy imbalance has nearly doubled in the last 20 years, and scientists do not know how long oceans will continue to massively soak up this excess heat. Dire future climate impacts worse than what the world has already experienced are already baked in over the next decade or two. But beyond that, the future is in our hands, the scientists made clear. "We will rapidly reach a level of global warming of 1.5C, but what happens next depends on the choices which will be made," said co-author and former IPCC co-chair Valerie Masson-Delmotte. The Paris Agreement's 1.5C target allows for the possibility of ratcheting down global temperatures below that threshold before century's end. Ahead of a critical year-end climate summit in Brazil, international cooperation has been weakened by the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. "Governments, financiers, and businesses must put this (report) in focus in the run-up to COP30 in Brazil," said David King, former UK Chief Scientific Advisor and Chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. "If today's data tells us anything, it's that we do not have time to delay any further."
