Latest news with #JustynaZabinska-LaMonica
Fibre2Fashion
4 hours ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US recession signal flashes again as LEI falls for 3rd straight month
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 98.8 (2016=100), after no change in May (revised upward from—0.1 per cent originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8 per cent over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3 per cent contraction over the second half of 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.3 per cent in June 2025 to 115.1 (2016=100), after being unchanged in both May and April. The CEI rose by 0.8 per cent over the first half of this year, down from 1 per cent growth over the previous six months, The Conference Board said in a press release. In June 2025, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for US fell by 0.3 per cent, marking a 2.8 per cent decline over the first half of the yearâ€'signalling recession risk for the third consecutive month. While stock prices rose, weak consumer confidence, new orders, and rising jobless claims dragged the index down. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index rose by 0.3 per cent. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the coincident index improved in June. 'The US LEI fell further in June. For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board . 'In addition, the LEI's six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month.' 'At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6 per cent this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices,' added Zabinska-La Monica. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US was unchanged at 119.9 (2016=100) in June 2025, after increasing by 0.4 per cent in May. The LAG's six-month growth rate was also positive at 1.4 per cent between December 2024 and June 2025—reversing a -0.8 per cent decline over the previous six months (June–December 2024). A strong rally in stock prices could not counterbalance the negative effects of subdued consumer confidence and weak new orders. The LEI's sluggish growth rate and sub-50 diffusion index over the past six months activated the recession signal for the third month in a row in June. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
The Star
2 days ago
- Business
- The Star
U.S. leading economic index drops in June
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Xinhua) -- The leading economic index (LEI) for the United States declined by 0.3 percent in June, according to data released Monday by The Conference Board. As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8 percent over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the drop of 1.3 percent over the second half of 2024. "The U.S. LEI fell further in June," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. "For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance." The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, but does expect economic growth to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow 1.6 percent this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in the second half as consumer spending slows due to higher prices, the report said.
Fibre2Fashion
27-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
India's LEI rises, CEI slumps in May amid mixed economic signals
India's economic outlook showed mixed signals in May 2025. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), which signals future economic activity, rose by 0.4 per cent to 160.5, following an upwardly revised 1.2 per cent increase in April, according to The Conference Board. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI grew by 1.2 per cent—an improvement from the 0.2 per cent increase seen in the prior six months, as per the latest data from The Conference Board. India's LEI rose 0.4 per cent in May 2025, following a 1.2 per cent gain in April, indicating improving future economic prospects, according to The Conference Board. Over six months, the LEI grew 1.2 per cent. However, the CEI, reflecting current conditions, fell 5.7 per cent in May. India's GDP is expected to grow by around 6.3 per cent in 2025, supported by financial momentum. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, fell sharply by 5.7 per cent in May to 147.6, more than reversing April's 5.3 per cent gain. The CEI contracted by 2.4 per cent over the latest six-month period, compared to a 0.6 per cent decline in the previous half-year, indicating ongoing weakness in real-time economic performance. 'The LEI for India increased in May, after being heavily revised upward in April . Financial variables drove the Index in May, with the largest positive contribution coming from a second month of rising stock prices. The merchandise export declined in May after surging in April,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Thanks to the two consecutive monthly gains in the leading index, its six-month growth moved higher into positive territory, implying that the growth tailwinds are likely to last in the second half of 2025. Therefore, and taking also into account the stronger than expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q1 and the recent easing of monetary policy, The Conference Board forecasts that India's real GDP will grow at about 6.3 per cent in 2025, only slightly slower than in 2024.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
The Star
20-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. Leading Economic Index inches down in May
WASHINGTON, June 20 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) ticked down by 0.1 percent in May, according to data released Friday by The Conference Board. The LEI fell by 2.7 percent in the six-month period ending May 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.4 percent contraction over the previous six months, the data found. "The LEI for the U.S. fell again in May, but only marginally," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. "The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the index. However, consumers' pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May's overall decline," Zabinska-La Monica said. The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but does expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6 percent this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026, the report said. This occurs amid President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.
Newsweek
20-05-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
US Economic Outlook Darkens as Major Forecast Records Steep Drop
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The short-term outlook for the U.S. economy worsened significantly in April, according to the Conference Board's latest Leading Economic Index (LEI). On Monday, the D.C.-based research said that the index—a closely monitored composite of several economic indicators—had fallen by 1.0 percent to 99.4 in April, registering the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest drop since March 2023. Over the six months ending in April 2025, the LEI fell by two percent, matching the pace of decline posted over the previous six months. Why It Matters The sharp decline in the LEI is one of the several warning signals that have emerged from the U.S. economy in recent months against the backdrop of trade policy uncertainty and a related weakening in consumer sentiment. Despite the U.S. and China agreeing to a temporary climbdown on tariffs, set to extend into mid-August, separate consumer surveys suggest that economic anxieties persist. Economists have expressed concerns that the trade dispute may have already done damage to both economies, while cautioning over the strong possibility of a re-escalation. What To Know Seven out of the ten economic components of the LEI declined in April, most significantly consumers' expectations for business conditions. As Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board noted: "Consumers' expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025." According to the University of Michigan's latest Consumer Sentiment Index, consumer sentiment dropped for the fifth consecutive month in May to 50.8, the second-lowest reading on record. Sentiment has dropped by nearly 30 percent since January, with Republicans contributing significantly to the decline seen this month. Meanwhile, year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 6.5 percent in April to 7.3 percent in May, while long-run inflation expectations were pushed up to 4.6 percent, "reflecting a particularly large monthly jump among Republicans." President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he arrives for a meeting with the House Republican Conference at the Capitol, Tuesday, May 20, 2025, in Washington. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he arrives for a meeting with the House Republican Conference at the Capitol, Tuesday, May 20, 2025, in Washington. Rod Lamkey, Jr./AP Photo Many of those surveyed mentioned the impact of tariffs in their responses, though the University of Michigan notes that most were gathered prior to last week's joint announcement of a temporary reduction in tariffs by the U.S. and China. The reaction to this pause assessed so far, it added, "echoes the very minor increase in sentiment seen after the April 9 partial pause on tariffs, despite which sentiment continued its downward trend." While the Conference Board's forward-looking LEI serves as a potential warning signal, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI)—which reflects current conditions—edged up by 0.1 percent in April to 114.8, following a 0.3 percent gain in March. What People Are Saying Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, The Conference Board, said: "The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize. "Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers' expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April. Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI's components, resulting in a warning signal for growth." Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, during a press conference on May 7, said: "Despite heightened uncertainty, the economy is still in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our two-percent longer-run objective." Powell continued: "The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The tariff increases announced so far have been significantly larger than anticipated. All of these policies are still evolving, however, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain." Political economist Veronique de Rugy told Newsweek that despite the 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs, "the economic disruptions caused by the trade war have had tangible impacts, and the temporary nature of the agreement means that uncertainties persist." Sean Metcalfe, associate director at Oxford Economics, said: "The effective tariff rate is still noticeably higher than that seen prior to President Donald Trump's inauguration. Over the span of several weeks, the US effective tariff rate skyrocketed to its highest since the late 1890s before settling slightly lower at a rate comparable with the 1930s. The bottom line is the US economy is still going to take a hit from the tariffs that remain in place." Metcalfe told Newsweek that the tariff de-escalation would "boost GDP growth this year (relative to our previous forecast) by several 10ths of a percentage point, reduce the boost to y/y growth in consumer prices from tariffs by 0.2ppts, and nudge the unemployment rate lower by 0.1ppt-0.2ppts." What Happens Next? The Conference Board currently projects U.S. GDP to increase by 1.6 percent in 2025, slowed from 2.8 percent in 2024. It cited the adverse impacts of tariffs on America's growth prospects, with Zabinska-La Monica saying that the "bulk" of these will be felt in the third quarter of the year.
