U.S. Leading Economic Index inches down in May
The LEI fell by 2.7 percent in the six-month period ending May 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.4 percent contraction over the previous six months, the data found.
"The LEI for the U.S. fell again in May, but only marginally," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
"The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the index. However, consumers' pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May's overall decline," Zabinska-La Monica said.
The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but does expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6 percent this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026, the report said.
This occurs amid President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.
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