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Korea Herald
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Korea Herald
Trump struck Iran — but North Korea is a different story
Iran strike hardens Kim Jong-un's nuclear resolve, pushes Pyongyang deeper into China-Russia orbit, say experts US President Donald Trump's decision to authorize airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities has been widely seen as reinforcing North Korea's long-held belief: that nuclear weapons are essential for regime survival. The strike would further dim the already unfavorable prospects for nuclear dialogue with Washington and accelerate Pyongyang's push for deeper military cooperation with Russia. Still, analysts in Seoul stressed that North Korea's case is fundamentally different from Iran's. Not only does Pyongyang already possess nuclear weapons and advanced delivery systems, it also maintains a distinct rationale and motivation for nuclear armament — unlike Tehran, whose program is framed around deterrence and national pride, Pyongyang's is centered on the survival of the Kim regime. One of the most significant differences, observers noted, is that the likelihood of Trump ordering a similar strike on North Korean nuclear facilities is considered extremely low. A key reason lies in North Korea's counterstrike capabilities: intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland and massed artillery aimed at densely populated areas of Seoul. Joung Kyeong-woon, a senior research fellow at the Seoul Defense Forum, pointed out that densely populated areas — including the Seoul metropolitan area and the city of Goyang — are well within range of North Korean artillery. 'The primary reason North Korea cannot be attacked lies in the fact that we are essentially held hostage by its artillery — far more easily usable than nuclear weapons,' Joung told The Korea Herald. "This reality was confirmed when South Korea opposed, and then-US President Clinton ultimately abandoned, the idea of a surgical strike." Then-President Kim Young-sam opposed the US proposal to strike the Yongbyon nuclear facility during the 1994 nuclear crisis under the Clinton administration. North Korea can launch immediate strikes on the densely populated South Korean capital and its vicinity using artillery systems such as 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers, in addition to missiles targeting South Korea, including nuclear-capable solid-fuel short-range missiles like the KN-23. 'Since then, North Korea has secured layered deterrence through its possession of various medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, in addition to nuclear weapons,' Joung said. Joung further explained that North Korea's deeply fortified underground nuclear facilities are nearly impossible to neutralize. 'North Korea's key nuclear and missile facilities are located hundreds of meters underground, beneath solid bedrock in the mountainous regions of the country's northwest," Joung said. 'There are no existing weapons capable of directly destroying them — not even tactical nuclear weapons.' Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, pointed out, 'North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons and second-strike capabilities are the biggest constraints on a US airstrike" against nuclear facilities in North Korea. In April 2025, Gen. Xavier Bruson, the commander of US Forces Korea, testified before the House Armed Services Committee that the 'DPRK's chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons programs and formidable missile force (ballistic and cruise) pose a threat to the US homeland, US forces in the Indo-Pacific, and allied nations." Pyongyang has formalized a preemptive, or first-use nuclear policy in accordance with the law on North Korea's policy on nuclear forces, promulgated in September 2022. 'This marks a shift from its previous stance of using nuclear weapons solely for defensive purposes, allowing their use also for repelling or retaliating against an enemy's invasion or signs of an impending attack,' Lim said. The roles of Russia and China also set North Korea apart from Iran. 'Unlike the case of Iran, Russia is obligated to intervene automatically under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between North Korea and Russia," Lim said. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which stipulates a mutual defense obligation, in June 2024, during Putin's visit to Pyongyang. 'China is likely to view a US airstrike on North Korea's nuclear facilities as a direct threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula and to security along the China–North Korea border," Lim added. Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, pointed out that 'China and Russia are better positioned to help Pyongyang than Tehran.' 'The North Korean case is very different," Easley said. More importantly, experts in Seoul underscored that the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is likely to have far-reaching implications for North Korea — reinforcing Pyongyang's nuclear posture, deepening its distrust of Washington, and reshaping its approach to diplomacy and military cooperation. Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, pointed out that what matters to South Korea is 'the impact on the Korean Peninsula and how North Korea perceives the situation." 'North Korea is likely thinking that its choice was the right one following the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities. It will further solidify its belief that 'possessing nuclear weapons is the only means of survival' and will continue to maximize the legitimacy of its nuclear possession,' Kim said. 'Beyond the economic shock, this crisis is highly likely to trigger widespread security instability on the Korean Peninsula and lead to a fundamental shift in the strategic environment,' Kim added. Lim said Trump's decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities 'has a significant impact on North Korea's foreign policy.' 'North Korea will reinforce the legitimacy of its existing policy that prioritizes regime survival and nuclear weapons development, and expand military cooperation rooted in anti-Western solidarity — particularly with Russia and China,' Lim said. 'It will also shift further toward deepening skepticism of inter-Korean dialogue and negotiations with the United States.' The US military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities will further deepen North Korea's distrust of the US — already hardened by Washington's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, in 2018 and the breakdown of the 2019 North Korea–US summit in Hanoi during the first Trump administration.
AllAfrica
23-06-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
North Korea overtakes Iran as Russia's partner of choice
North Korea is no longer just supplying Russia with manpower and missiles. It is embedding itself deep within Russia's war economy, sending thousands of workers to the heart of its drone industry and reshaping the balance of power in Eurasia. This month, The War Zone (TWZ) reported that 25,000 North Korean workers are being sent to Russia's Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan to assist with the manufacturing of Shahed drones, part of a deal reportedly brokered during Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu's visit to Pyongyang. Satellite imagery reveals new dormitory construction at the Alabuga site, indicating Russia's intention to increase drone production from 2,000 to 5,000 units per month. Ukrainian intelligence chief Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov confirmed this development, citing the growing cooperation between Russia and North Korea and warning of the strategic implications for both Ukraine and South Korea. He added that some North Korean workers may be contracted into the Russian defense service. The Alabuga plant, repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian strikes, remains a critical node in Russia's standoff strike capability, particularly amid high attrition from its war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly assisting North Korea in enhancing the accuracy of KN-23 missiles, long-range air-to-air munitions, and submarine-launched systems. The transfer of labor and technology underscores tightening bilateral military ties as both regimes confront isolation and intensifying global scrutiny. Russia may be shifting its partnership of convenience from Iran to North Korea. As Iran falters under Israeli and US airstrikes and unfulfilled Russian arms deals, North Korea pulls ahead, embedding itself in Russia's war machine and Far Eastern strategy. While Russia and Iran have a long history of distrust and conflict, their mutual disdain for the Western-dominated international order, autocratic governments and heavily sanctioned economies in the aftermath of the former's invasion of Ukraine has placed them in the same boat. Iran has sought to make itself indispensable to Russia's war effort by supplying Shahed drones, tactical gear, and artillery in exchange for revenue and to avoid diplomatic isolation. It may have also sought Russian investment in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Yet as Russia transitioned to a war economy and began producing Shahed drones locally, Iran's leverage may have declined, undercutting the latter's efforts to extract security guarantees or financial backing from the former. Furthermore, while Iran has consistently requested advanced Russian equipment, such as Su-35 fighter jets, these deliveries have not yet materialized, as Russia may need those fighters more urgently in its conflict with Ukraine. In October 2024, Israel destroyed Iran's prized S-300 surface-to-air missile (SAM) launchers, leaving the latter exposed to current air attacks. While Iran has downplayed the need to purchase the more advanced S-400 from Russia, citing the superior capabilities of its domestic systems, this could be a cover-up for Russia's refusal to provide such systems for the same reason it has withheld Su-35 fighters. However, Israeli strikes on Iran present mixed implications for Russia. For one, while such strikes may have undermined Russia as a credible partner, strikes on Iranian oil and gas infrastructure may have eliminated Iran as a competitor to Russian energy exports. Yet, these gains may be short-lived. Israel admits that its strikes are not sufficient to destroy Iran's nuclear program and that the goal is to pressure Iran back into negotiations. Furthermore, it is unknown how Iran would respond in the aftermath. A nuclear-armed Iran may ultimately undermine Russia's influence. Russia may have less leverage over a nuclear-armed Iran, potentially triggering a Middle East nuclear arms race, with Saudi Arabia stressing that it will develop nuclear weapons if Iran gets the bomb. Despite that possible long-term setback, Israeli strikes may distract the US from Ukraine, drawing attention and resources away from confronting Russia. It also allows Russia to point out US 'double standards,' with the US distancing itself from Israeli combat operations in Gaza while supporting Israeli strikes on Iran that have caused civilian casualties. As Iran buckles under sustained Israeli and now US strikes, North Korea is stepping into the breach, presenting an entirely different set of nuances. North Korea and Russia share deep ties dating back to the Korean War, and the former's nuclear arsenal arguably makes it a safer long-term investment for the latter. North Korea has deepened its role in Russia's war effort, providing matériel and manpower while reaping combat insights, hard currency, and access to advanced systems. North Korea's interest in supporting Russia in Ukraine may be to reduce its overdependence on China, its main political and economic lifeline, to maintain strategic autonomy and regime survival. These aims may clash with China's goal of maintaining stability in the Korean Peninsula. Arguably, North Korean missile tests pose a threat to China just as much as they are to Japan and South Korea, prompting China to threaten to scale down political and economic ties with North Korea. To those ends, North Korea is actively developing nuclear delivery systems with possible Russian assistance, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) that could reach the US mainland and nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) that ensure a second-strike capability. While a belligerent North Korea serves China and Russia's mutual interest of undermining the Western-dominated international order, it remains uncertain whether this wartime alignment will evolve into a lasting partnership once the guns fall silent in Ukraine. Despite Russia being heavily sanctioned, it still seeks to resume trade with the US, raising doubts about the long-term growth of Russia-North Korea relations. However, beyond the Russia-Ukraine War, Russia may use North Korea as leverage against China's growing presence, economic influence, and territorial ambitions in the Russian Far East, strengthening economic, political, and military ties to form a buffer state. In turn, North Korea maintains its autonomy by balancing ties between Russia and China, with its nuclear arsenal providing a strategic backstop against regime change. With Iran sidelined and China's shadow growing, North Korea is fast becoming Russia's most dangerous and dependable ally, fueling its war machine, fortifying its eastern flank, and tilting Eurasia's strategic balance in Russia's favor.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia attacks Ukraine with 4 missiles and 55 UAVs: 43 targets downed, 9 strikes occurred
Since the evening of 12 June, Russian forces have attacked Ukraine with four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 55 Shahed-type attack UAVs and various types of decoy drones; 43 targets were destroyed, but there were nine strikes. Source: Ukrainian Air Force on Telegram Quote: "As of 09:00, air defence has downed 43 enemy Shahed-type UAVs and other types of drones in the north, east and south of the country. Twenty-eight were shot down by firepower, and 15 disappeared from radar/were suppressed by electronic warfare." Details: It is reported that the Russians attacked Kharkiv, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Strikes were recorded in nine locations. The air attack was repelled by aircraft, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units, unmanned systems units and mobile fire groups from the Ukrainian defence forces. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukraine war latest: Russia carries out one of largest attacks against Kyiv; second group of Ukrainian POWs comes back home under Istanbul deal
Key developments on June 10: In one of largest attacks on Ukraine's capital, Russian barrage hits Kyiv, Odesa, kills 3, injures 12 Ukraine, Russia conduct second prisoner swap under Istanbul deal Russia significantly improved North Korea's shoddy KN-23 ballistic missiles, Ukraine's Budanov says EU unveils 18th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting energy, banking, oil Over 40% of Ukrainians willing to compromise on 'de facto' recognition of Russian occupation for peace, poll shows Kyiv and Odesa came under another mass Russian attack in the early hours of June 10, involving ballistic missiles and drones. Russia launched 315 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys against Ukraine overnight, as well as two North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles and five Iskander-K cruise missiles, primarily targeting Kyiv, the Air Force reported. Ukrainian air defenses shot down all seven missiles and 213 attack drones. According to the statement, 64 drones disappeared from radars or were intercepted by electronic warfare systems. A woman was killed and four other people were injured in Kyiv, according to local authorities. Meanwhile, in the southern city of Odesa, two men were killed and at least eight civilians were wounded in the attack. One more person suffered shock during the attack on Odesa, authorities reported. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the attack was one of the largest on Kyiv during the full-scale war. "Russian missile and Shahed strikes drown out the efforts of the United States and others around the world to force Russia into peace," he wrote on X. "For yet another night, instead of a ceasefire, there were massive strikes with Shahed drones, cruise and ballistic missiles." Read also: 'We love our country' — As Russia steps up its attacks, Kyiv residents choose to stay According to Culture Minister Mykola Tochytskyi, the strike also damaged St. Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv. The UNESCO World Heritage site, dating back to the 11th century, is one of Ukraine's most significant religious and cultural landmarks. The management of St. Sophia Cathedral has informed UNESCO about the damage caused to the historic site by a recent Russian airstrike, according to the reserve's general director, Nelia Kukovalska. Speaking to Suspilne, she said that the blast wave damaged the cornice of the cathedral's central apse. In Odesa, a film studio and medical facilities, including a maternity hospital, were damaged. A Russian attack caused damage to a maternity hospital in Odesa. At the time of the attack, 85 adults and 22 children were inside, but no staff or patients were injured as everyone was in the shelter, facility director Iryna Golovatyuk-Yuzefpolskaya told Suspilne. Join our community Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight. Support Us Ukraine and Russia carried out another prisoner exchange on June 10, concluding the second phase of an agreement reached during the most recent round of peace talks in Istanbul, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced. "We continue the return of our people, as agreed in Istanbul," Zelensky wrote on X, confirming the exchange without immediately disclosing the number of returnees. "Today marks the first stage of the return of our injured and severely wounded warriors from Russian captivity. All of them require immediate medical attention. This is an important humanitarian act," he added. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said the second group of released prisoners includes personnel from Ukraine's Navy, Ground Forces, National Guard, Unmanned Systems Forces, Air Assault Forces, Border Guard Service, Territorial Defense, and State Special Transport Service. Ukraine managed to release officers, soldiers, and non-commissioned officers. Among the freed Ukrainian soldiers are those who are seriously ill, as well as those who defended the city of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast and spent more than three years in captivity. "All of the defenders released today have severe injuries and serious illnesses: amputated limbs, vision problems, abscesses, infections, trauma, shrapnel wounds, and chronic diseases. Some of the liberated have been diagnosed with hepatitis and tuberculosis," the headquarters' statement read. The Russian Defense Ministry also said that it had received a second group of Russian prisoners of war who are now in Belarus. Moscow did not disclose the exchange details or the number of returnees. The swap marks the second stage of the deal negotiated during the June 2 negotiations in Turkey — the second direct peace dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022. Russia helped significantly improve North Korea's KN-23 ballistic missiles, also known as Hwasong-11, after receiving the first inaccurate batch from Pyongyang, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) chief, said in an interview with The War Zone published on June 9. North Korea has supplied Russia with ammunition, ballistic missiles, and soldiers since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. KN-23 ballistic missiles initially flew with a deviation of a few kilometers and around half fired at Ukraine by Russia malfunctioned and exploded in mid-air, Reuters reported in May 2024, citing Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office. But now they are hitting their targets, Budanov said, without specifying what exactly was changed in the North Korean missiles. "The KN-23 missiles that were delivered in the very beginning, now it's an absolutely different missile in (terms) of their technical characteristics. The accuracy has increased many times," Budanov said. "This is the result of the common work of Russian and North Korean specialists. Also, there is the modernization of long-range air-to-air missiles, particular technologies on submarines, and unfortunately, ballistic missiles, which can carry nuclear payloads," he added. According to Budanov, Russia has also agreed to help North Korea begin domestic production of Shahed-type kamikaze drones. Pyongyang has ratcheted up its support for Russia following Russian President Vladimir Putin's signing of a mutual defense pact with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in June 2024. Read also: As Russia inches closer to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, new Ukrainian region might soon be at war The 18th package of European Union sanctions against Russia will include additional restrictions on energy, banking, oil, and other areas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on June 10. After the 17th package of sanctions against Russia came into effect on May 20, Ukraine's allies announced that the next package of restrictions was already in the works, after Moscow repeatedly refused to accept a ceasefire. Russian troops also continue to advance slowly along the front line, approaching Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and moving deeper into Sumy Oblast. "Russia's goal is not peace," von der Leyen said. "Strength is the only language that Russia will understand." The EU has proposed for the first time a ban on transactions involving the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, as well as a reduction in the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, as one-third of Russia's government revenue still comes from oil exports, according to von der Leyen. Von der Leyen added that the amendments to the oil price cap are a Group of Seven (G7) coalition measure, so it will be discussed at the G7 summit to be held on June 15-17 in Kananaskis County, located in the western province of Alberta, Canada. The EU will also add 77 more shadow fleet vessels to comply with the cap to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions and propose imposing a ban on imports of petroleum products made from Russian oil. Another part of the sanctions will be aimed at the Russian banking sector, with the EU wanting to add 22 more Russian banks to the list of those who can no longer use the SWIFT international system. The EU also proposes to extend the ban on transactions to financial operators in third countries that finance trade with Russia, bypassing sanctions, and to impose limitations on the Russian Direct Investment Fund, its subsidiaries, and investment projects. Further EU restrictive measures will include a ban on exports worth more than 2.5 billion euros ($2.8 billion), which must deprive the Russian economy of critical technologies and industrial goods, von der Leyen said. Machinery, metals, plastics, and chemicals used as raw materials for industry, as well as dual-use goods involved in the production of weapons and drones, will be affected, according to von der Leyen. The European Commission President also emphasized that the EU wants its sanctions to be more effective. Thus, the EU would list another 22 Russian and foreign companies, including those from China and Belarus, providing direct or indirect support to Russia's military and industrial complex. These additions will bring the total number of sanctioned companies to over 800. EU countries will start debating the proposal this week. Read also: Key to Russia's defeat lies in its economy Some 48% of Ukrainians "categorically" oppose even a de facto recognition of Russian control of the occupied Ukrainian territories to achieve peace, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on June 10. In turn, 43% of respondents said they would be willing to make the concession to reach a peace deal with Moscow, provided it does not include a formal, or de jure, recognition of the Russian control. The news comes as Russia continues to push for territorial concessions from Ukraine as part of the ongoing peace talks. The survey suggests that Ukrainians are even less ready to accept a de jure recognition of the Russian occupation – 68% of respondents said they are categorically against such a step, while 24% were open to it if it leads to peace. The strongest opposition – 78% – was against handing over control of Ukrainian territories that Russia does not currently occupy. Only 15% of respondents were willing to make that compromise. Russia currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukraine's territory. This includes the whole of Crimea occupied in 2014 and large parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. Moscow illegally declared the annexation of the latter four regions in 2022 and insists on Ukraine's full withdrawal from them as part of a peace deal, even though it does not control them completely. The Kremlin is also pushing for a formal recognition of its hold over Ukrainian territories. While U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly signalled a willingness to U.S. recognition of the Russian occupation of Crimea, Ukraine has rejected the step, as well as its withdrawal from the territory it currently holds. The poll revealed that public opinion on territorial concessions has remained relatively stable over the past months. When asked whether Ukraine should give up territories to achieve peace — without specifying a de facto or de jure recognition of the Russian occupation — 52% said Ukraine should not take the step under "any circumstances." In comparison, 38% of respondents backed the compromise. These are almost the same figures as in December 2024, when 51% were opposed to the concession, while 38% were open to it. "Our survey shows that the issue of territorial losses is extremely sensitive for Ukrainians and, in particular, how exactly 'territorial losses' are interpreted plays a significant role," said Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS, in a statement. "At the same time, this means that (un)readiness for territorial losses can become the subject of manipulation and information campaigns against Ukraine." The poll was conducted between May 15 and June 3. It involved 2,004 adult residents of the Ukrainian-controlled territories who were interviewed by telephone. Only about 500 of them answered all four questions. Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community. We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia significantly improved North Korea's shoddy KN-23 ballistic missiles, Ukraine's Budanov says
Russia helped significantly improve North Korea's KN-23 ballistic missiles, also known as Hwasong-11, after receiving the first inaccurate batch from Pyongyang, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) chief, said in an interview with The War Zone published on June 9. North Korea has supplied Russia with ammunition, ballistic missiles, and soldiers since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. KN-23 ballistic missiles initially flew with a deviation of a few kilometers and around half fired at Ukraine by Russia malfunctioned and exploded in mid-air, Reuters reported in May 2024, citing Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office. But now they are hitting their targets, Budanov said, without specifying what exactly was changed in the North Korean missiles. "The KN-23 missiles that were delivered in the very beginning, now it's an absolutely different missile in (terms) of their technical characteristics. The accuracy has increased many times," Budanov said. "This is the result of the common work of Russian and North Korean specialists. Also, there is the modernization of long-range air-to-air missiles, particular technologies on submarines, and unfortunately, ballistic missiles, which can carry nuclear payloads," he added. According to Budanov, Russia has also agreed to help North Korea begin domestic production of Shahed-type kamikaze drones. Pyongyang has ratcheted up its support for Russia following Russian President Vladimir Putin's signing of a mutual defense pact with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in June 2024. According to a May 29 report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), Pyongyang shipped to Russia up to 9 million artillery shells and at least 100 ballistic missiles in 2024 alone. North Korea's involvement in the war expanded in fall 2024, when it deployed thousands of troops to Russia's western border to help fend off a large-scale Ukrainian incursion. The move followed the signing of a defense treaty between the two countries in June 2024, obligating both to provide military aid if either is attacked. North Korea acknowledged its role in the war only in April 2025. A month later, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un said the country's participation was part of a "sacred mission," aligning Pyongyang's narrative with Moscow's. Read also: Exclusive: Ukraine could face 500+ Russian drones a night as Kremlin builds new launch sites We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
