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The Sun
23-06-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Best UFC betting sites in the UK – Top UFC bookies ranked (2025)
THE UFC has exploded in popularity across the UK in recent years, quickly becoming one of the most-watched combat sports alongside boxing. Major UFC events now attract millions of UK viewers via platforms like TNT Sports (formerly BT Sport), while live shows at The O2 Arena often sell out within hours. With British champions like Leon Edwards making waves on the global stage, interest in MMA and MMA betting has never been higher. If you're itching to get in on the action, this article highlights some of the best UFC betting sites in the UK for 2025. Our top 10 sites for UFC betting 🔎 How we ranked our best UFC betting sites As with all of our reviews, the core system we base our evaluation on is our editorial framework, the " Sun Factor." And while we mostly looked for bookies with good odds and a good variety of UFC markets, there are other factors in play too, such as ease of use and the quality of the customer support. Here's a breakdown of everything we assessed: 🥊 Number of UFC betting markets When choosing the best UFC betting sites, one major factor is the range of UFC betting markets available. The top sportsbooks don't just stick to picking the winner: they offer a wide selection of betting options: method of victory (KO, submission, decision), round betting, to-go-the-distance markets, and more. A greater number of markets gives bettors more ways to bet, opening new ways to capitalise on each fight night. 🤑 Promotions & bonuses One reason many UK customers prefer certain betting sites for UFC is the availability of fight-specific promotions. The best UFC betting sites run bonuses tied to major events, like boosted odds, free bets, or parlay insurance. These offers often pop up ahead of pay-per-view bouts, making them a smart way to maximise your stakes. And although UFC-specific promos are rare, many sportsbooks offer welcome bonuses and VIP promotions that can be used across all sports, including on UFC fights. 💰 Best odds for UFC matches To get the most value from your bets, it's vital to compare odds across different UFC betting sites. The best betting sites consistently offer competitive lines, whether you're backing a favourite or hunting value on an underdog. Even marginally better odds can mean much bigger winnings, especially when placing large stakes or building a fight night parlay across several matches. 🗓️ Betting experience A great UFC betting experience starts with an easy-to-use site or app. The top online betting platforms have well-designed sites and intuitive apps that work across a variety of devices, making it easy to find the UFC betting markets you're after. After all, being able to quickly place a wager, especially during in-play betting, can make all the difference in quick-paced events like UFC fights. 💳 Payment methods The best betting sites support a wide range of options for deposits and withdrawals, including PayPal, debit cards, Skrill, and Neteller. They also provide hassle-free payment methods and process withdrawals quickly and securely, ensuring you don't have to wait long for your winnings. 📞 Customer support Whether it's a payment issue or a question about a bet, quick and effective customer service is key to a good online betting experience. Good betting sites provide24/7 support through live chat, email, or even phone, and detailed FAQ sections answering all typical customer questions. The best ones go a step further and offer their customer insights into upcoming matches and tips for events and promotions to look out for. An in-depth look at our favourite UFC betting sites 1. bet365 bet365 is one of the biggest names in the British betting world over the past two decades, and rightly so. From the quality and quantity of its game streaming and in-play betting options to generous promotions for both new and existing players, there's a lot to like here. As boxing lovers can attest, bet365 has a fantastic selection of markets for fighting fans. bet365 covers both major MMA events like UFC and UFC Fight Night, and smaller ones like Oktagon and ARES FC. Markets depend on the event, but you can expect everything from Fight Lines (winner) and Method of Victory to Strikes Landed and even combo bets like Method and Round. 2. Betfred Betfred is a truly legendary bookie in the UK, having started modestly as a single betting shop in Ordsall, Salford, in 1967. Although it has mostly made its name on excellent odds and acca deals for football fans, it has long since expanded into other betting markets, including boxing and MMA. All major events like UFC Fight Night and typical markets such as Round Betting are available, and you can even combine several matches into acca bets or keep up with the latest news and get custom tips and predictions on a dedicated UFC Betting Tips page on Betfred's Betfred Insights blog. 3. Coral Coral is a well-known site among UK punters, and its sportsbook offers solid coverage of UFC events. You can bet on all the key markets like Fight Betting (moneyline) and Method of Victory, or try to guess the total number of rounds. A standout feature is #YourCall, which lets you create your own custom UFC bets by tweeting @Coral. If accepted, you'll get informed about your odds and possibly be featured on the site's #YourCall page. While Coral doesn't go as deep into MMA markets as some competitors, it makes up for it with highly user-friendly betting tools, reliable odds, and creative bet-building features that can net you some unique, fun, and highly profitable bets. 4. BetMGM Since its UK launch in 2023, BetMGM has carved a niche in MMA by blending aggressive promotions with user-friendly innovation, managing to stand out even in a rather crowded sportsbook scene. The site offers an extensive selection of UFC and MMA betting markets, including standard options like To Win Fight, Round Betting, and Method of Victory, plus specials tied to major events. Features like Lion's Boosts enhance odds for select fights, and Edit My Bet lets punters tweak their wagers mid-event – a rare find in the MMA market. The platform also includes extensive in-play betting options and tips on upcoming fights. 5. 888 Sport 888 Sport is one of the biggest names in online sports betting these days. The operator has a smooth, responsive site and a well-designed app that both support numerous pre-match and in-play betting options. Although the site's excellent Bet Builder is only available for football, NBA, and NFL matches, you can still make acca bets on UFC fights. There's also a section for Popular Bets so new players can get ideas and an occasional Odds Boost for major events such as headline UFC fights. There's a ton of betting markets for UFC too, from classics like predicting the match winner to method of victory & round combos. 6. Betano Betano has a simple recipe for success: make betting easy and give punters highly competitive odds. It has one of the best-designed apps we've tried, with features such as a sliding menu that can be pulled up mid-stream to make your bet. UFC lovers can bet on a variety of markets, from moneyline to guessing whether the fight will go the distance. There are also regular Bet Boosts on popular markets in big fights, and you can even get massive odds on randomised compound selections through Lucky Dip bets, such as guessing not only the winner and round, but also the exact minute the fight will end. 7. SBK SBK is a lesser-known operator well worth checking. In addition to excellent sports promotions for both new and existing players, it tries hard to stay competitive with the big industry names by offering the most competitive odds on a variety of popular sports markets, including all fighting sports. Best Price lets you see how the current odds for events stack up against major names like Unibet and Coral, while Price+ lets you get margin-free odds on select events to guarantee the most profitable bets. All major events such as UFC and UFC Fight Night are covered in detail, and you can bet on anything from outright winner to bout ranges. 8. Tote If you're a fan of pool betting, Tote is the best place to be. With a history spanning almost 100 years, Tote is a legendary bookie with some of the industry's best offers for this style of betting, including Tote Multiples that offer players the larger of starting price vs Tote dividend. If you don't feel like risking with accas, the Tote Guarantee ensures the final win price on select bets won't be lower than the starting price. MMA fans can bet on all popular UFC events and markets like moneyline and Over/Under bets and handy navigation tools let you pick between UFC fights only or everything that's currently available. 9. CopyBet CopyBet is our favourite pick for new punters and a great place to check out for some expert tipster advice. With the simple act of subscribing to your favourite pro tipsters on the site, you can get easy access to their bet slips, which can be instantly copied into your own selections. This benefits both inexperienced punters and grizzled veterans, the latter getting paid a percentage of winnings, while the former can copy multiple selections from several industry veterans, greatly raising their chances of making winning bets. UFC fans can look forward to over 15 markets, including submission or (T)KO combos, all neatly organised per event. 10. Kwiff Kwiff may not be a household name in the UK yet, but it's definitely a rising star. New players can look forward to sport-agnostic free bet offers not limited to certain payment methods (a rarity in the UK these days!) and great ongoing promos like surprise free bets, 3+ fold acca boosted odds, and more. Our favourite feature is Supercharged Bets, random bet selections across all sports (including UFC) that get boosted odds. The site's well-organised interface lets you see in-play bets, fights within 24 hours, popular competitions, or a calendar of all upcoming fights. There are over 10 betting markets, including all popular ones like Fight Winner and Total Rounds. 🥊 Popular UFC betting markets Betting on UFC and MMA fights is quite similar to boxing bets, so if you're familiar with those, you'll be right at home here. Here's a short list of the most common markets you'll see. Outright winner The most straightforward betting option: just pick which fighter will win the bout. For example, if you wager on an underdog at 3/1 and they score a knockout, your payout is based on those boosted odds, and you'll get triple your wager. This market is available on nearly all UFC betting sites and is a great entry point for new and inexperienced bettors. Over/under number of rounds Here, you predict whether the fight will end before or after a set number of rounds. For example, if two technical fighters with strong defensive styles are matched up, betting on the fight lasting over 5 rounds is usually a good idea. This market is often featured in UFC promotions and specials on major sportsbooks. Method of victory This UFC betting market lets you bet on how the fight will end: by KO, TKO, submission, or decision. For example, backing a grappler to win by submission against a striking-focused opponent is a solid plan, but don't expect the odds to favour you too much, as the bookie knows what to expect, too. Many betting sites boost the odds on these methods around championship fights. Fight to go the distance A variation on the over/under bet, this one simply predicts that the fight will last its full scheduled length, and thereby have the winner decided by a judges' decision. Excellent for those 'boring' matches where both fighters are cautious, but not that uncommon in UFC, considering that matches typically last either three or five rounds, depending on the format, finishing far quicker than your typical boxing match. Most of the UFC markets listed above are often available as in-play bets on most major sportsbooks. This means you can place bets while the fight is happening, adjusting to the action in real time. However, UFC fights are typically much shorter and more fast-paced than boxing, but they can end just as suddenly, especially in lower weight classes or striker-heavy matchups. As a result, in-play betting windows can be narrow, and odds may shift rapidly. Quick decision-making and access to a site with a good live betting interface are essential to making the most of in-play bets for UFC fights. Ones to watch in the UFC From living legends like Jon Jones, who is at 37 still the reigning heavyweight champion with a record-breaking 12 title defences through his career, to up-and-coming fighters like the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev and Ilia Topuria, or female UFC flyweight Erin Blanchfield, there are plenty of interesting talents to watch these days. Although most category champions are expectedly dogged veterans like Dricus Du Plessis, Islam Makhachev or Valentina Shevchenko, some slightly younger fighters like Australia's Jack Della Maddalena have managed to snatch titles, too. While all of the UK waits with baited breath for the supposed heavyweight title clash between the reigning and interim champs Jon Jones and our very own Tom Aspinall, there are plenty of exciting upcoming matches in 2025, including Topuria's June 29th clash with veteran Charles Oliveira, and the much-anticipated Du Plessis vs. Chimaev duel on August 16th. 🤝 How to bet on the UFC Here's a quick step-by-step guide on how to make bets on UFC matches. Choose a licensed UFC betting site – Pick a bookmaker regulated by the UK Gambling Commission with strong MMA betting coverage. Any of the options in our article are a great starting point. Create an account – Register your account on the site and confirm it by providing some form of national ID, such as your passport or driving license. Make an initial deposit – Before doing anything else, put some money into your account. This is also the step where you'd confirm your welcome promotion if you opted in for one. Find the UFC section – Navigate to the UFC or mixed martial arts page under the list of sports available on the site. Select a fight – Choose an upcoming fight night or championship card to proceed. Pick a market – Common UFC betting markets include choosing the outright winner, method of victory, and over/under rounds. Add your bet to the slip – Click on the odds next to your selection, enter your stake, and confirm (this process may vary a little between sites but the basics are always the same). Claim your winnings – Providing you guessed correctly, all that's left is to see how much you've won and cash out your winnings. 📺 How to follow all things UFC and MMA For UK MMA and UFC fans, staying up to date with the latest fights, odds, and events is easy with the right sources. TNT Sports (formerly BT Sport) holds the official UFC broadcasting rights in the UK, airing every major card, including fight nights and championship bouts. For news, previews, and betting tips, talkSPORT is a must: check out their dedicated MMA section for expert insights. Other top resources include MMA Junkie, Sherdog, and the UFC's own channels on YouTube and Instagram. Podcasts like The MMA Hour with Ariel Helwani and Morning Kombat also offer weekly coverage and fighter interviews. 🙋Q&A about the best UFC betting sites 1. Which stats and news stories should I pay attention to when looking to place UFC bets? Focus on each fighter's record, recent wins/losses, method of victory (e.g. knockout, submission), and fighting style. Also, pay close attention to injury news, weight cut issues, and short-notice opponent changes. Stats on takedown accuracy, striking defence, and cardio can also play a role, and the more research you do, the better your predictions will be. 2. How do bookies determine odds for UFC fights? Bookmakers calculate odds using fighter records, previous matchups, public betting trends, and expert analysis. They consider styles, fight history, current form, and even promotion hype. If a fighter is a fan favourite, odds may shorten due to heavy betting (regardless of true probability), making value bets possible for savvy bettors. 3. When is the best time to place UFC bets so that I can get the best possible odds? Early odds often offer more value, especially before public opinion shifts. Lines may tighten closer to fight night as bets roll in. Watching for line movement and placing wagers before weigh-ins or major media coverage can help you lock in the best possible returns on your stake. 4. Which types of UFC bets tend to offer the best potential returns? Markets like method of victory, round betting, and underdog outright wins typically provide the highest odds and payout potential. For example, backing a fighter to win via submission in Round 2 carries more risk but much bigger winnings than a simple moneyline bet. Parlays or accas also boost potential returns, but are much more difficult to pull off. Remember to gamble responsibly A responsible gambler is someone who: For help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or go to to be excluded from all UK-regulated gambling websites.
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Kamaru Usman fights back tears after beating Joaquin Buckley to earn first UFC win since 2021
Kamaru Usman fought back tears on Saturday after overcoming Joaquin Buckley in Atlanta, a result that marked his first UFC win since 2021. Usman, who retained the welterweight title five times during a three-year reign, used his wrestling prowess to dominate Buckley for four rounds, before surviving a fifth-round scare to earn a unanimous-decision win. Advertisement The scorecards read 49-46, 49-46, 48-47 in Usman's favour, as the Nigerian-American snapped a three-fight losing streak. In doing so, he also broke Buckley's six-fight winning run. Usman had last scored a victory in November 2021, outpointing old rival Colby Covington in his final successful title defence. Then, in August 2022, he was en route to a comfortable decision win over Leon Edwards before succumbing to a dramatic, late knockout. Usman, who previously outpointed Edwards in 2015, lost their trilogy bout on points in 2023, failing to regain the 170lb title. Then, in October 2023, he stepped in to face the unbeaten Khamzat Chimaev on short notice. In what was Usman's middleweight debut, he performed admirably but lost via decision. Usman, 38, returned to welterweight to face the in-form Buckley on Saturday (14 June), where he defied his doubters with an impressive performance, which gave way to an emotional post-fight interview. Advertisement 'It feels good,' he said in the cage. 'It's been a while, I needed to get that monkey off my back. I know I'm still able to do this at the highest level. Sometimes when you're going up against a young, hungry guy like that – very talented, very aggressive – you've got to pull out the skills and use the experience. Former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman (Getty Images) 'That's what I did tonight. I expected him to be really, really tough, which he was. I know what it takes to work and get up in here. Thank you to him for bringing everything that he brought. 'I know it's a running joke, everybody wants to get on the internet and talk s***: 'Oh, his knees, his knees [are done]!' Well, shut the f*** up. I can still do what I do. The rest of the welterweight division, listen: I have been and always will be the f*****g boogeyman.' Advertisement 'I can do that to anybody, any one of them. Those knockouts will come, I just needed this monkey off my back. Next one, whoever it is for that title, I'll see about you.' An emotional Usman also referenced his daughter's absence from the Fight Night, saying: 'Before I go, I just wanted to say that I have a lot of emotions coming into this one [...] a lot of things that I had to battle back from. I'm holding back all the emotions. 'Unfortunately, my daughter can't be here with me tonight. That's another long story. But man, I just want to say thank you to everybody – thank you to my family, my coaches who kept me going, Buckley for bringing the challenge.' Jaoquin Buckley must go back to the drawing board (Getty) Jack Della Maddalena, the reigning welterweight champion, is due to defend the belt later this year against Islam Makhachev, who recently vacated the lightweight strap. 'JDM' won the belt in May by outpointing Belal Muhammad, who is now calling for a fight with Usman, but the 'Nigerian Nightmare' has insisted he only wants a title shot next.
Time of India
22-05-2025
- Sport
- Time of India
'An immediate rematch' - MMA fans sends in requests to UFC executives after Belal Muhammad's training clips go viral
Belal Muhammad. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images Former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad had a devastating loss at UFC 315 after suffering a unanimous decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena . Ahead of the bout, the fighter was quite confident about retaining the title, but much to his dismay, the results went against the fighter's prediction. With an impressive pro-MMA record , the fighter had secured the title in his bout against Leon Edwards at UFC 304. Having soaked in the loss, the fighter once again hits back at the gym with a new zeal, which has instigated the fans to call out the UFC executives for arranging a rematch for the fighter . Former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad hits back the gym, aims to bounce back from the devastating UFC 315 loss Belal Muhammad's pro-MMA career boasts an impressive record of 24-4. Before his last defeat and the title loss to Jack Della Maddalena, the fighter didn't have a single loss in the last six years and had defeated contenders like Sean Brady, Leon Edwards, and Gilbert Burns. During his tenure in the UFC, the fighter faced Leon Edwards twice. The first bout between the fighters ended in a no-contest owing to an accidental eye poke, and Muhammad later avenged himself, defeating Edwards in a title run bout. In UFC 315, most of the fans believed that the fighter would retain the title, contrary to what fate had planned for him. Even though the fighter released a statement shortly after the defeat, it is the recent training video of Muhammad that has increased the hype among fans. In a recent clip posted by Championship Rounds on X, the fighter was seen warming up, practising his moves on a boxing bag. Fans immediately vouched for a rematch between Muhammad and JDM. One of them wrote, 'His loss was a fluke was just a bad defensive and wrestling night. He need to train hard af and get an immediate rematch @ufc' Another one wrote, 'Our comeback will be historical best believe that' 'The champ is back. it's the former champ is back.' Also read: UFC color commentator Daniel Cormier voices concern over the recent coach switch by Ilia Topuria ahead of UFC 317 Even though the fighter has started hitting the gym again, however, his next steps within the division are not known yet. While fans pitch for a rematch, dragging in the UFC executives, it is hard to say if the fighter will get any, considering the recent shakeup within the weight division. Get IPL 2025 match schedules , squads , points table , and live scores for CSK , MI , RCB , KKR , SRH , LSG , DC , GT , PBKS , and RR . Check the latest IPL Orange Cap and Purple Cap standings.
Forbes
11-05-2025
- Sport
- Forbes
Belal Muhammad Reflects On UFC 315 Title Loss To Jack Della Maddalena
MONTREAL, QUEBEC - MAY 10: Belal Muhammad reacts after the UFC welterweight championship bout ... More against Jack Della Maddalena during the UFC 315 event at Bell Centre on May 10, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC) Belal Muhammad's title run ended on Saturday night when he dropped a unanimous decision to Jack Della Maddalena in the main event of UFC 315. The UFC welterweight title fight was Muhammad's first outing since winning the belt with an upset victory over Leon Edwards in July 2024. Muhammad released a statement after UFC 315. The now former champion wrote on X: 'Allah's plan is the best plan. Alhamdillah for everything. Thank you to all my supporters. I been here before and I'll be back.' MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - JULY 27: Belal Muhammad reacts after his victory against Leon Edwards of ... More Jamaica in the UFC welterweight championship bout during the UFC 304 event at Co-op Live on July 27, 2024 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) Belal Muhammad (24-4-0-1) joined the UFC with a 9-0 record. Not long after Muhammad claimed the Titan FC welterweight crown, the UFC came knocking. Muhammad signed with the promotion in 2016. At the time, he was 27. Bloody Elbow described him as, "In the cage he is largely a volume puncher, tending to work at the edges of range keeping a constant jab going and working behind it. He does well to work a kicking game in with his boxing, and puts some real power behind those kicks, but the focus is definitely on being a combination puncher. To that end, Muhammad does a good job feinting and changing rhythm, to keep his opponent from guessing his timing too easily. "Muhammad uses his footwork well at range, circling away, maintaining distance and not walking himself into the pocket. As such he's got pretty solid takedown defense. His focus is on accuracy and timing, and he rarely puts himself in a bad position to be taken down. Just because of his style, Muhammad hasn't been much of a finisher to date in his MMA career, but he's got the kind of style that's great for breaking down opponents over time." At first, Muhammad had a rough go of things in the UFC. He went 1-2 with his losses, a decision to Alan Jouban, and a knockout setback at the hands of Vicente Luque, bookending a TKO victory over Augusto Montaño. The loss to Jouban, Muhammad's UFC debut, earned the combatants "Fight of the Night" honors. After the loss to Luque, Muhammad won four straight decisions. That winning streak ended in 2019 when Geoff Neal topped Muhammad via decision. Following the loss to Neal, Muhammad went 4-0. That run put him in the main event of UFC Vegas 21 opposite Leon Edwards. At the time, Edwards was the No. 3 competitor in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Muhammad checked in at No. 13. Edwards was a -270 betting favorite, while Muhammad was the +220 betting underdog. The contest did not last long as Edwards poked Muhammad in the eye 18 seconds into the second round. The eye poke left Muhammad unable to continue, and the fight was ruled a no contest. Over the next two years, Muhammad rang up five more victories against progressively tougher competition. He defeated Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Gilbert Burns during that run. The triumph over Burns earned Muhammad the No. 2 ranking in the division and a date with Edwards at UFC 304. Edwards was the reigning UFC welterweight champion at the time and was looking to make a third defense of that belt against Muhammad. Edwards was on a 12-fight unbeaten run when he stepped into the Octagon as the -265 favorite over the +215 Muhammad. MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - JULY 27: (L-R) Belal Muhammad punches Leon Edwards of Jamaica in the UFC ... More welterweight championship bout during the UFC 304 event at Co-op Live on July 27, 2024 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) After the fight, which Muhammad won via decision, I wrote, "Belal Muhammad had the perfect game plan for Leon Edwards at UFC 304. Not only did he and his team have that strategy mapped out, but Muhammad seamlessly executed that plan of attack. Muhammad was booked to face Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, but a bone infection prevented Muhammad from competing on that card. With Rakhmonov unable to compete at UFC 314, the UFC opted to book Muhammad against Della Maddalena in Montreal. The loss to Della Maddalena ended Muhammad's 11-fight unbeaten streak and UFC championship reign. As one can see from his response following UFC 315, Belal Muhammad seems to be taking the setback in stride.
New York Times
09-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
UFC 315 odds, preview, predictions: Muhammad vs. Maddalena headlines card with two belts up for grabs
UFC heads to Canada to decide championship matchups in the welterweight and women's flyweight divisions. I don't expect to see fireworks on this card, and it's not a slate I'm attacking heavily from a betting standpoint, but it's always nice to see belts up for grabs. I enjoy the fighters in the main and co-main events this week. I'll be breaking down both of those matchups as well as another intriguing one from the main card, but if you'd like to chat about any other fights, please let me know in the comment section below. Advertisement Coming off a well-deserved upset victory over Leon Edwards, Muhammad will make his first title defense on Saturday against a top contender in Maddalena. Muhammad won his title with a grinding, wrestling-based game plan, where he landed nine takedowns against Edwards and controlled him for more than 12 minutes. It wasn't the most breathtaking performance, but Muhammad got the job done, and that's all that matters. I never considered Muhammad a championship threat prior to his matchup against Edwards, but that was largely because he was outmatched physically by a lot of the division, and he's never been a great finishing threat. I think Muhammad is one of the smarter fighters in the division, though, and in recent years, we've seen him level up his physicality. He's greatly improved as a wrestler, training with the Dagestani crew. Muhammad now lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, but we've seen him land nine, seven and five takedowns in a few of his recent matchups. Additionally, Muhammad is a pretty strongly paced boxer, and he lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.48 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. He's not a big power threat, but he throws plenty of volume, which firmly puts him in the mix to win rounds on a consistent basis. The biggest issue we've seen from Muhammad over the years is his durability, which I think ties more into his physicality than anything related to his chin. He's been knocked down six times in his three UFC losses, though to his credit, he was only actually TKO'd in one of those losses. Additionally, each of those losses came in 2019 or earlier, so we haven't seen real chin issues come up in any recent fight. I consider Muhammad one of the very best in the division and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hold the title for a while. He's very well-rounded, and he's a high-paced fighter who can give himself the ability to consistently win rounds both on the feet and on the mat. Advertisement This is an interesting test against Jack Della Maddalena, a Contender Series prospect who has won each of his seven UFC bouts, including five inside the distance. Maddalena is a skillful and effective boxer. We've seen early knockout power from Maddalena, but also the ability to fight at a high pace over 15 minutes, including in his recent win over Kevin Holland, where Maddalena landed 105 significant strikes in three rounds. In total, Maddalena lands 6.74 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.27 per minute with a 66 percent defensive rate. It's not purely about volume, though. Maddalena has fast hands, and he's powerful and opportunistic. He was down on the scorecards against Gilbert Burns but landed a flying knee in the third round that allowed him to swarm for the TKO stoppage. He currently holds six knockdowns in his last seven fights, which is impressive. The downside for Maddalena has largely been his defensive wrestling. It isn't horrendous at 70 percent, but Maddalena has been taken down and put in dangerous spots by more than one opponent, including dating back to his Contender Series win against Ange Loosa in 2021. I don't love Maddalena's first-level takedown defense, and I'm pretty confident he will continue to be taken down. He does scramble up well, though, and he's semi-urgent in standing back to his feet. But Maddalena simply is not an elite wrestler. He is only averaging 0.21 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and he's not a massive submission threat. He will likely be exposed by a better wrestler at some point. Personally, this is where I see the biggest and only real advantage for Muhammad in the fight. Muhammad is clearly a better wrestler than Maddalena, and it would be smart for him to test Maddalena on the ground from the get-go. Ironically, Muhammad has stated he will not attempt any takedowns in this fight. However, I'm inclined to believe he understands the dynamic here and will look to shoot takedowns sooner or later. Advertisement Over five rounds, Muhammad can wear Maddalena down on the mat. We just saw him land nine takedowns on 13 attempts against Edwards, and if we see another 10-15 attempts here, it's highly likely that Muhammad can land five to eight takedowns and secure a bunch of top time. I've also seen Maddalena give up his back on multiple occasions, and Muhammad is pretty strong in securing that position. I still don't think a submission will come very often. Muhammad has fully-proven five-round cardio, whereas Maddalena does not. In theory, the longer the fight goes, the better for Muhammad. But Maddalena is faster and more explosive, and potentially the more durable opponent of the two. He'll carry some early knockout equity, as well as round-winning equity, and it wouldn't be a shocker to see him go five rounds comfortably. It's interesting to see Muhammad was priced north of -200 earlier in the week, but now sitting at -170 on BetMGM. He's even cheaper on other sites. I can understand why the market likes Maddalena, but it feels like an overcorrection. The reality is that Maddalena has struggled when he has faced wrestlers. He barely squeezed out a split decision against Bassil Hafez on short notice, who took him down three times and controlled him for more than six minutes before gassing out late. Burns was up two rounds on the scorecards and took Maddalena down seven times. It seems reasonable to project Muhammad for several takedowns landed over 25 minutes, and given that he's a proven cardio beast, with strong boxing pacing as well, I ultimately have to favor Muhammad in this spot. I am not dying to bet him, as I still respect the boxing of Maddalena, but this is getting to a price where I think there is likely value on the reigning champion. I also wouldn't mind taking a prop on Muhammad to win by decision. That's clearly the most likely outcome for him. Maddalena is tougher to bet because he could win by KO or by decision, and I feel like he's being a bit overvalued based on the current lines. I'll look toward a small play on Muhammad, or pass. Advertisement In addition to the welterweight championship, we'll also get to see Shevchenko defend her flyweight title against top contender Fiorot. Shevchenko is finally past her trilogy against Alexa Grasso, which culminated in a unanimous decision victory last September. Shevchenko took Grasso down eight times and controlled her for more than 16 minutes, decisively winning all five rounds. It was really no surprise given the wrestling advantage that Shevchenko held in that matchup, and it's notable that Shevchenko continues to use her wrestling as her primary path to victory at this stage of her career. She's a career kickboxer and has very strong striking metrics in the UFC, landing 3.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.0 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate. I've always been a bit frustrated with Shevchenko's striking style, though. It's extremely low volume, which still allows her to be in competitive affairs despite having a technical advantage. In totality though, Shevchenko is an elite fighter and one of the best female fighters of all time. She's a dominant wrestler, landing 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes with a brutal top game, and she's an excellent, technical and defensively sound striker as well. Fiorot will be an intriguing matchup because Fiorot is entering this bout undefeated in her UFC career at 7-0. Fiorot is an excellent distance striker, and her ability to maintain range is among her best attributes. Fiorot is currently landing 6.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.77 per minute with a 68 percent defensive rate. Like Shevchenko, Fiorot is extremely defensively sound. She's a much higher volume striker than Shevchenko, and we saw her top out at 172 significant strikes landed over Erin Blanchfield in her most recent matchup. Advertisement She does absorb strikes at a higher rate and is more inclined to fight at a faster pace, which allows for more openings. She's also not much of a wrestler. Fiorot averages 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, but those numbers have come against mostly mediocre competition. Fiorot defends takedowns at 93 percent, which is phenomenal on paper, but it's also worth noting that Fiorot was an underdog to Blanchfield last time out due to some wrestling question marks. Fiorot ultimately got the job done there, but Blanchfield is a far inferior wrestler to Shevchenko. Otherwise, Fiorot really hasn't fought any strong wrestlers. Rose Namajunas and Jennifer Maia attempted a few, but they are mediocre at best. Tabatha Ricci is a decent wrestler, but she was fighting up a weight class. There is really no comparison to Shevchenko. If you take Fiorot's 93 percent takedown defense at face value, she's arguably the deserved favorite. But if Shevchenko is able to land multiple takedowns, it's likely she can do enough with them to win rounds and retain her title. Shevchenko has fought 17 times in the UFC, and she has only failed to land a takedown one time, which came against Amanda Nunes in 2017. Given her recent wrestling pacing and domination and Fiorot's distance-striking skill set, it surely makes sense for her to test those waters again. From a projection standpoint, there's no way I can come out with Shevchenko scoring zero takedowns. We have not seen Fiorot on her back, and it's possible Shevchenko is at a clear advantage once the fight hits the mat. Even when the fight stays standing, I expect the two to strike competitively. Yes, Fiorot is higher paced, and I give her a slight advantage for that reason, but Shevchenko has only allowed more than 60 distance strikes once, which was also to Nunes. Shevchenko is going to look to slow the pace down to a crawl and limit exchanges. It's fair to lean toward Fiorot, but if she wins, my best guess is we see a highly competitive, slow-paced affair that is quite boring and goes the full 25 minutes. Advertisement On BetMGM, Fiorot is favored at -145, and we've seen her odds drop from -160 in some places earlier in the week. I agree with the movement toward Shevchenko, and I think it's fair to line this fight competitively. I don't strongly favor either side, and it may ultimately come down to the wrestling success of Shevchenko, which is difficult to pinpoint based on the sample from Fiorot. My favorite play is to lay the chalk on the fight going the distance at -285 or better, as I don't see much of a finishing path from either side. Perhaps Fiorot can win by KO, but that would be a shock considering the historic durability from Shevchenko. We could also see Shevchenko win by TKO or submission, but that feels like a risky bet as well. It wouldn't be a bad idea to bet either Fiorot or Shevchenko to win by decision, and you can find those props at +100 and +200 or better, respectively. This is a tough fight to read, and my brain says Shevchenko, but my gut says Fiorot. This isn't my favorite card from an entertainment perspective or a betting perspective, though I don't mind the main and co-main events. Though it may be boring, I'm interested in watching Silva and Grasso compete for a future title shot, and I think this fight going the distance is one of the better parlay legs on this slate. Silva is another highly effective distance striker, and she's won all six of her UFC bouts thus far, including against some solid competition like Jasmine Jasudavicius and Jéssica Andrade. Silva is landing 5.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.35 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate, which is elite. We've seen her top out at 117 significant strikes landed against Andrade and another 96 against Jasudavicius. The downside is that Silva is fairly one-dimensional in that she is effective at distance, but she's not much of a power threat or a wrestler. Advertisement She needs to win these highly technical, evasive affairs and is capable of fighting in that capacity. Nobody has been able to chase her down. She's able to strike moving forward and backward, which is a real positive, and her takedown defense has held up well at 91 percent. Grasso is an interesting test because Grasso is a former champion and gave Shevchenko a run for her money over three contests. Grasso is a skilled boxer and a higher-volume one than most of the division, landing 4.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.69 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. Shevchenko did well to limit those numbers, but we've seen Grasso top out at 153 significant strikes landed over five rounds, and 148 over three rounds. Grasso is a decent submission grappler, but she's not an effective wrestler, and only lands 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. Jiu-jitsu is likely where she has the biggest advantage over Silva, but she's only taken down five of her 13 UFC opponents. I think Grasso can compete with Silva in boxing range, but Silva is a better kicker at distance and still the more evasive fighter. I'm not sure Grasso will be able to chase Silva down. The addition of multiple takedowns would surely help Grasso, but it's tough to project her for even a single takedown given the defense of Silva on paper and Grasso's historic low numbers. Ultimately, I think this will be a technical, competitive fight, and I favor Silva for her distance metrics. Silva is the favorite on BetMGM at -250, but I don't see a reason to play her moneyline as opposed to her decision line, which you can find at a nice discount of -160 or better. I was able to play it at -145 earlier in the week. Silva has won by TKO a couple of times, but against much weaker competition, and Grasso has never suffered a knockdown in her career. It would be very surprising to me if Silva won this fight ITD. Advertisement The fight as a whole is -375 to -400 to go the full distance, depending on where you look. That's not a massive value, but I consider it an extremely likely outcome, and I'd be comfortable using it as a parlay leg this week. The biggest risk would potentially come in the form of a Grasso submission, but that feels like a long shot. (Photo of Belal Muhammad: Ben Roberts Photo / Getty Images)
