UFC 315 odds, preview, predictions: Muhammad vs. Maddalena headlines card with two belts up for grabs

New York Times

09-05-2025

UFC heads to Canada to decide championship matchups in the welterweight and women's flyweight divisions. I don't expect to see fireworks on this card, and it's not a slate I'm attacking heavily from a betting standpoint, but it's always nice to see belts up for grabs.
I enjoy the fighters in the main and co-main events this week. I'll be breaking down both of those matchups as well as another intriguing one from the main card, but if you'd like to chat about any other fights, please let me know in the comment section below.
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Coming off a well-deserved upset victory over Leon Edwards, Muhammad will make his first title defense on Saturday against a top contender in Maddalena.
Muhammad won his title with a grinding, wrestling-based game plan, where he landed nine takedowns against Edwards and controlled him for more than 12 minutes. It wasn't the most breathtaking performance, but Muhammad got the job done, and that's all that matters.
I never considered Muhammad a championship threat prior to his matchup against Edwards, but that was largely because he was outmatched physically by a lot of the division, and he's never been a great finishing threat.
I think Muhammad is one of the smarter fighters in the division, though, and in recent years, we've seen him level up his physicality. He's greatly improved as a wrestler, training with the Dagestani crew. Muhammad now lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, but we've seen him land nine, seven and five takedowns in a few of his recent matchups.
Additionally, Muhammad is a pretty strongly paced boxer, and he lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.48 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. He's not a big power threat, but he throws plenty of volume, which firmly puts him in the mix to win rounds on a consistent basis.
The biggest issue we've seen from Muhammad over the years is his durability, which I think ties more into his physicality than anything related to his chin. He's been knocked down six times in his three UFC losses, though to his credit, he was only actually TKO'd in one of those losses. Additionally, each of those losses came in 2019 or earlier, so we haven't seen real chin issues come up in any recent fight.
I consider Muhammad one of the very best in the division and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hold the title for a while. He's very well-rounded, and he's a high-paced fighter who can give himself the ability to consistently win rounds both on the feet and on the mat.
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This is an interesting test against Jack Della Maddalena, a Contender Series prospect who has won each of his seven UFC bouts, including five inside the distance.
Maddalena is a skillful and effective boxer. We've seen early knockout power from Maddalena, but also the ability to fight at a high pace over 15 minutes, including in his recent win over Kevin Holland, where Maddalena landed 105 significant strikes in three rounds. In total, Maddalena lands 6.74 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.27 per minute with a 66 percent defensive rate.
It's not purely about volume, though. Maddalena has fast hands, and he's powerful and opportunistic. He was down on the scorecards against Gilbert Burns but landed a flying knee in the third round that allowed him to swarm for the TKO stoppage. He currently holds six knockdowns in his last seven fights, which is impressive.
The downside for Maddalena has largely been his defensive wrestling. It isn't horrendous at 70 percent, but Maddalena has been taken down and put in dangerous spots by more than one opponent, including dating back to his Contender Series win against Ange Loosa in 2021.
I don't love Maddalena's first-level takedown defense, and I'm pretty confident he will continue to be taken down. He does scramble up well, though, and he's semi-urgent in standing back to his feet. But Maddalena simply is not an elite wrestler. He is only averaging 0.21 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and he's not a massive submission threat. He will likely be exposed by a better wrestler at some point.
Personally, this is where I see the biggest and only real advantage for Muhammad in the fight. Muhammad is clearly a better wrestler than Maddalena, and it would be smart for him to test Maddalena on the ground from the get-go. Ironically, Muhammad has stated he will not attempt any takedowns in this fight. However, I'm inclined to believe he understands the dynamic here and will look to shoot takedowns sooner or later.
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Over five rounds, Muhammad can wear Maddalena down on the mat. We just saw him land nine takedowns on 13 attempts against Edwards, and if we see another 10-15 attempts here, it's highly likely that Muhammad can land five to eight takedowns and secure a bunch of top time.
I've also seen Maddalena give up his back on multiple occasions, and Muhammad is pretty strong in securing that position. I still don't think a submission will come very often.
Muhammad has fully-proven five-round cardio, whereas Maddalena does not. In theory, the longer the fight goes, the better for Muhammad.
But Maddalena is faster and more explosive, and potentially the more durable opponent of the two. He'll carry some early knockout equity, as well as round-winning equity, and it wouldn't be a shocker to see him go five rounds comfortably.
It's interesting to see Muhammad was priced north of -200 earlier in the week, but now sitting at -170 on BetMGM. He's even cheaper on other sites. I can understand why the market likes Maddalena, but it feels like an overcorrection.
The reality is that Maddalena has struggled when he has faced wrestlers. He barely squeezed out a split decision against Bassil Hafez on short notice, who took him down three times and controlled him for more than six minutes before gassing out late. Burns was up two rounds on the scorecards and took Maddalena down seven times.
It seems reasonable to project Muhammad for several takedowns landed over 25 minutes, and given that he's a proven cardio beast, with strong boxing pacing as well, I ultimately have to favor Muhammad in this spot. I am not dying to bet him, as I still respect the boxing of Maddalena, but this is getting to a price where I think there is likely value on the reigning champion.
I also wouldn't mind taking a prop on Muhammad to win by decision. That's clearly the most likely outcome for him. Maddalena is tougher to bet because he could win by KO or by decision, and I feel like he's being a bit overvalued based on the current lines. I'll look toward a small play on Muhammad, or pass.
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In addition to the welterweight championship, we'll also get to see Shevchenko defend her flyweight title against top contender Fiorot.
Shevchenko is finally past her trilogy against Alexa Grasso, which culminated in a unanimous decision victory last September. Shevchenko took Grasso down eight times and controlled her for more than 16 minutes, decisively winning all five rounds.
It was really no surprise given the wrestling advantage that Shevchenko held in that matchup, and it's notable that Shevchenko continues to use her wrestling as her primary path to victory at this stage of her career.
She's a career kickboxer and has very strong striking metrics in the UFC, landing 3.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.0 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate. I've always been a bit frustrated with Shevchenko's striking style, though. It's extremely low volume, which still allows her to be in competitive affairs despite having a technical advantage.
In totality though, Shevchenko is an elite fighter and one of the best female fighters of all time. She's a dominant wrestler, landing 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes with a brutal top game, and she's an excellent, technical and defensively sound striker as well.
Fiorot will be an intriguing matchup because Fiorot is entering this bout undefeated in her UFC career at 7-0.
Fiorot is an excellent distance striker, and her ability to maintain range is among her best attributes. Fiorot is currently landing 6.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.77 per minute with a 68 percent defensive rate.
Like Shevchenko, Fiorot is extremely defensively sound. She's a much higher volume striker than Shevchenko, and we saw her top out at 172 significant strikes landed over Erin Blanchfield in her most recent matchup.
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She does absorb strikes at a higher rate and is more inclined to fight at a faster pace, which allows for more openings. She's also not much of a wrestler. Fiorot averages 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, but those numbers have come against mostly mediocre competition.
Fiorot defends takedowns at 93 percent, which is phenomenal on paper, but it's also worth noting that Fiorot was an underdog to Blanchfield last time out due to some wrestling question marks. Fiorot ultimately got the job done there, but Blanchfield is a far inferior wrestler to Shevchenko.
Otherwise, Fiorot really hasn't fought any strong wrestlers. Rose Namajunas and Jennifer Maia attempted a few, but they are mediocre at best. Tabatha Ricci is a decent wrestler, but she was fighting up a weight class. There is really no comparison to Shevchenko.
If you take Fiorot's 93 percent takedown defense at face value, she's arguably the deserved favorite. But if Shevchenko is able to land multiple takedowns, it's likely she can do enough with them to win rounds and retain her title. Shevchenko has fought 17 times in the UFC, and she has only failed to land a takedown one time, which came against Amanda Nunes in 2017. Given her recent wrestling pacing and domination and Fiorot's distance-striking skill set, it surely makes sense for her to test those waters again.
From a projection standpoint, there's no way I can come out with Shevchenko scoring zero takedowns. We have not seen Fiorot on her back, and it's possible Shevchenko is at a clear advantage once the fight hits the mat.
Even when the fight stays standing, I expect the two to strike competitively. Yes, Fiorot is higher paced, and I give her a slight advantage for that reason, but Shevchenko has only allowed more than 60 distance strikes once, which was also to Nunes.
Shevchenko is going to look to slow the pace down to a crawl and limit exchanges. It's fair to lean toward Fiorot, but if she wins, my best guess is we see a highly competitive, slow-paced affair that is quite boring and goes the full 25 minutes.
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On BetMGM, Fiorot is favored at -145, and we've seen her odds drop from -160 in some places earlier in the week. I agree with the movement toward Shevchenko, and I think it's fair to line this fight competitively. I don't strongly favor either side, and it may ultimately come down to the wrestling success of Shevchenko, which is difficult to pinpoint based on the sample from Fiorot.
My favorite play is to lay the chalk on the fight going the distance at -285 or better, as I don't see much of a finishing path from either side. Perhaps Fiorot can win by KO, but that would be a shock considering the historic durability from Shevchenko. We could also see Shevchenko win by TKO or submission, but that feels like a risky bet as well.
It wouldn't be a bad idea to bet either Fiorot or Shevchenko to win by decision, and you can find those props at +100 and +200 or better, respectively. This is a tough fight to read, and my brain says Shevchenko, but my gut says Fiorot.
This isn't my favorite card from an entertainment perspective or a betting perspective, though I don't mind the main and co-main events.
Though it may be boring, I'm interested in watching Silva and Grasso compete for a future title shot, and I think this fight going the distance is one of the better parlay legs on this slate.
Silva is another highly effective distance striker, and she's won all six of her UFC bouts thus far, including against some solid competition like Jasmine Jasudavicius and Jéssica Andrade. Silva is landing 5.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.35 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate, which is elite. We've seen her top out at 117 significant strikes landed against Andrade and another 96 against Jasudavicius.
The downside is that Silva is fairly one-dimensional in that she is effective at distance, but she's not much of a power threat or a wrestler.
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She needs to win these highly technical, evasive affairs and is capable of fighting in that capacity. Nobody has been able to chase her down. She's able to strike moving forward and backward, which is a real positive, and her takedown defense has held up well at 91 percent.
Grasso is an interesting test because Grasso is a former champion and gave Shevchenko a run for her money over three contests. Grasso is a skilled boxer and a higher-volume one than most of the division, landing 4.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.69 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. Shevchenko did well to limit those numbers, but we've seen Grasso top out at 153 significant strikes landed over five rounds, and 148 over three rounds.
Grasso is a decent submission grappler, but she's not an effective wrestler, and only lands 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. Jiu-jitsu is likely where she has the biggest advantage over Silva, but she's only taken down five of her 13 UFC opponents.
I think Grasso can compete with Silva in boxing range, but Silva is a better kicker at distance and still the more evasive fighter. I'm not sure Grasso will be able to chase Silva down. The addition of multiple takedowns would surely help Grasso, but it's tough to project her for even a single takedown given the defense of Silva on paper and Grasso's historic low numbers.
Ultimately, I think this will be a technical, competitive fight, and I favor Silva for her distance metrics.
Silva is the favorite on BetMGM at -250, but I don't see a reason to play her moneyline as opposed to her decision line, which you can find at a nice discount of -160 or better. I was able to play it at -145 earlier in the week.
Silva has won by TKO a couple of times, but against much weaker competition, and Grasso has never suffered a knockdown in her career. It would be very surprising to me if Silva won this fight ITD.
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The fight as a whole is -375 to -400 to go the full distance, depending on where you look. That's not a massive value, but I consider it an extremely likely outcome, and I'd be comfortable using it as a parlay leg this week. The biggest risk would potentially come in the form of a Grasso submission, but that feels like a long shot.
(Photo of Belal Muhammad: Ben Roberts Photo / Getty Images)