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Libya Herald
2 days ago
- Politics
- Libya Herald
Aldabaiba and Menfi stress use of polling feedback to establish consensus basis for constitutional process: report and analysis
The President of the Presidential Council, Mohamed Al-Menfi, and the Tripoli based Libyan Prime Minister, Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba, held what the Tripoli government referred to as an ''expanded meeting'' in Tripoli yesterday that dealt with ''several political, security and financial files of national priority''. Implementing security arrangements, consolidating the rule of law During the meeting, the Tripoli government reported, the two sides stressed the importance of implementing security arrangements, supporting the Tripoli Security Directorate, ending all manifestations of detention outside the judiciary, and subjecting all prisons to full jurisdiction in coordination with the Attorney General, as a basis for consolidating the rule of law and guaranteeing rights. Reorganise the competencies of security, military and justice institutions It was also agreed to reorganise the competencies of security, military and justice institutions, in a way that ensures that there are no conflicts in powers and competencies in accordance with the basic organisational structure, and in a way that supports the Ministries of Interior and Defence in performing their tasks in a safe and organized environment. Support of UNSMIL to enhance comprehensive national consensus The two sides renewed their support for the efforts of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and stressed the importance of continuing coordination with it in the political and security tracks, to enhance the chances of comprehensive national consensus. To confront public spending that violate financial law and political agreement On the financial side, the two parties stressed the need to take joint measures to confront public spending that violate the financial law and the provisions of the political agreement, stressing the need for a unified budget, and for public funds to be subject to control mechanisms, prior planning, review and disclosure after contracts, in order to ensure respect for the people's right to knowledge and accountability. Popular referendum to establish popular consensus for constitutional path The two sides also reviewed the latest developments in activating the High Commission for Referendum and National Inquiry (political public opinion polling), and stressed the importance of conducting a broad, impartial and transparent popular referendum as soon as possible to establish any constitutional path based on a real popular consensus. Analysis and comment The desire by the Presidency Council to use political opinion polls / referendums is a new, proactive development. Historically, the Presidency Council has been seen as a dormant body. However, its ousting of the former Central Bank of Libya Governor, Sadek El-Kaber changed that perception. The removal of El-Kaber The legality of the initial removal of El-Kaber was questionable. According to the 2015 Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), and its subsequent alterations, the Presidency Council is a non-legislative body. Legislation is supposed to be enacted by the House of Representatives (HoR) – in consultation with the High State Council. The appointment of a CBL Governor, the head of the Audit Bureau and the Administrative Control Authority are the concern of the legislature and not the executive. It will be recalled that the Presidential Council had announced on 18 August 2024 that it had taken a unanimous decision to elect a new Governor of the CBL and form a new Board of Directors. This it claimed, came within the HoR Resolution No. 3/2018. This is the 2018 HoR law which had removed El-Kaber as CBL Governor – but the eastern based HoR was never able to enforce this removal in Tripoli. The Presidency Council appointment of a new CBL Governor was initially rejected by both Libya's recognised legislative bodies, the HoR and High State Council (HSC). However, on 26 September 2024 UNSMIL announced that the HoR and the HSC had agreed on the consensual appointment of the new Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Governor, his Deputy and the Board of Directors. The removal of El-Kaber set a precedent? This in effect set a precedent for the Presidency Council and Aldabaiba. Aldabaiba and Menfi feel they are constrained in their effectiveness by Libya's political quagmire set in stone by the 2015 LPA. Aldabaiba feels he needs a popular mandate to implement reform – especially controversial reform such as security reforms to confront militias. Several militias have ingratiated themselves in their city or region by projecting themselves as the local protector against other militias or even government security forces. The local and social support of militias This localisation of security (local militias) dates from the 2011 February Revolution that ousted the Qaddafi regime. Towns, cities and regions were left to fend for themselves for resistance to the forces of the Qaddafi regime or to militias of other towns, cities and regions, as well as ought right criminals. The militias use tribalism and regionalism to protect themselves from the high national aim of creating a unified national police and army controlled by the central government of the day. Aldabaiba emboldened by removal of El-Kaber? Emboldened by the removal of former CBL Governor El-Kaber without the legislation of the HoR or HSC, at the Third Ordinary Cabinet Meeting of 2024 held on 28 October in Tripoli – the first Cabinet meeting since El-Kaber's removal – Aldabaiba said: ''Changing the CBL's administration (the Governor and the board of directors) was inevitable, the first step in a series of deep reforms aimed at ending the absurdity and revitalising the Libyan economy. With this decision, I have irrevocably turned the page on individualism, temperament and political blackmail using the most important financial position in the country. The time of individualism and non-institutionalism has become a part of the past''. More pertinently to the relevance of using opinion polls to obtain a mandate for action, Aldabaiba further said ''We will not accept the extension of the current political bodies (parliament, the House of Representatives and the High State Council) and will not remain idle in front of the group that obstructs the elections. Going to direct elections that renew the legitimacy of all legislative and executive bodies is a red line for us''. He went on to say ''There are millions paid, weapons shipped, (foreign) media and intelligence tools working day and night, and receivables bought the aim of which is to undermine Libya's stability and hit its economy''. Use of opinion polls as a mandate It is Aldabaiba's refusal to allow the forces of the political status quo in Libya (the HoR, HSC and militias) to keep Libya in its current political quagmire that is behind the desire to use political opinion polls / referendums as quasi-elections to provide a mandate for action: We 'will not remain idle in front of the group that obstructs the elections'. As far as Aldabaiba is concerned, the HoR and HSC are only interested in maintaining the status quo. They wish to remain in power for as long as possible by delaying elections. This includes the move by the HoR to pass (using a minority of members) an election law that guarantees HoR Speaker Ageela Saleh and Hafter retain their posts if they are to lose in an election race. Aldabaiba hopes to wave the results of opinion polls at his opponents, be they the international community, the HoR, the HSC, militias and parts of the public. He hopes to use these popular mandates to implement strong, effective government, economic and security reforms. He wishes to use these opinion polls to by-pass and go over the head of the HoR and HSC – and indeed the 2015 LPA that installed them. Will the ploy succeed again? It remains to be seen if the opinion poll/referendum ploy will succeed. There is no doubt that a large segment of the Libyan public is tired of the political impasse that the country finds itself in. This political impasse is having a constraining effect on successive governments' ability to implement real reform and on the general public's standard of living. Can a poll / referendum be conducted across Libya? But while the Tripoli government may be able to conduct an opinion poll in western Libya, it is unclear if the eastern regime will allow such a poll to take place. If the polling is only conducted in the west of Libya, can this be considered a nation-wide mandate or just a regional mandate? And if it is only regional, is this adding to or taking away from the unification of Libya? Western Libya to go it alone? On the other hand, has Aldabaiba effectively given up on the international community, UNSMIL, the 2015 LPA and a united Libya and decided that western Libya must go it alone. Has he decided that it is no longer possible to expect Saleh and Hafter to allow elections to take place – ever? Tripoli will have to also convince the international community. Whilst they were able to get away with ousting CBL Governor El-Kaber, it is unclear if the unilateral move can be repeated in other scenarios. It was clear that El-Kaber had lost his credibility, and the international community were happy to see him removed. They may hold a different view on other political moves planned by the Tripoli administration based purely on opinion polls or referenda. Weak executives unable to reform The political split between western and eastern Libya with the internationally recognised government based in Tripoli and the HoR and its (internationally unrecognised) government based in Benghazi has meant that all these bodies are weak. This weakness has meant that no government has been able to implement the deep reform needed to launch the Libyan economy. It will be recalled that Libya is a centralised, socialist, rentier state highly dependent on its oil revenues. It is still operating the Qaddafi system it inherited in 2011. This Qaddafi system means the economy is highly centralised and dominated by the state – at the expense of the private sector. State-sector employment With high unemployment and higher still youth unemployment, the government must create at least 100,000 jobs every year. But the private sector economy is suppressed by the centralised, rentier system and is unable to create such a high number of new jobs annually. This forces the government into appointing thousands of youth to state-sector jobs – jobs that don't exist and that the country does not need. This has sent the state-sector jobs bill in the state budget skyrocketing to unsustainable numbers – at the expense of the creation of value-added jobs in the private sector. Opportunity costs The money used on the state-sector jobs budget is needed elsewhere and could and should be invested in other productive sectors instead. It should be used to train university leavers and finance SMEs instead. It should be used to improve health, education, and infrastructure. Reforming the banking system Another area that needs reform to kickstart the private sector is the banking sector. Libya's banking sector is also a legacy of the Qaddafi era. The legislative environment prevents banks from offering loans and finance to business as the laws do not guarantee the banks' ability to seek redress in the courts and confiscate property or assets in lieu of unpaid loans. Militias Finally, a state must have a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Foreign companies, foreign airliners and embassies are reluctant to come and invest in Libya as long as there are strong, unaccountable militias in the country. Aldabaiba understands this and this is (one of) the reason he has recently had confrontations with militias. A political mandate to face-off militias gained through a strong popular opinion poll or referendum is one way to face-off militias.
Libya Observer
21-06-2025
- Politics
- Libya Observer
Libyan figures urge UN to back constituent council proposal
A coalition of 223 prominent Libyan citizens—comprising politicians, activists, and civil society leaders—has formally called on Hanna Tetteh, the United Nations Secretary-General's Special Representative in Libya, to endorse a proposal for establishing a Constituent Council. This proposal, known as 'Proposal Four,' was developed by an advisory panel appointed by the UN Support Mission in Libya. It calls for the formation of a new executive body to oversee constitutional reform and electoral preparation, effectively replacing the current political institutions. In an open letter, the signatories noted an intensifying public outcry, with widespread street protests rejecting the status quo. They assert that existing institutions are responsible for Libya's stagnation and ongoing humanitarian challenges. They propose that the Constituent Council be formed through a Political Dialogue Committee, as specified in Article 64 of the 2015 Libyan Political Agreement. The committee should elect 60 members of the council based on integrity, competency, and fair representation of all Libyan communities. Importantly, the authors emphasize that anyone who has held legislative or executive positions in recent transitional governments should be excluded. The group describes the new path as 'a historic opportunity' to rebuild trust between the Libyan people and state institutions. It urges all stakeholders—from civil groups and political parties to youth movements and international partners—to unite behind this initiative and rise above narrow partisan interests. They describe Proposal Four as potentially Libya's last chance to break free from the cycle of failed transitions, and call on the UN to convene the Political Dialogue Committee promptly to select its members.
Libya Review
09-06-2025
- Politics
- Libya Review
Fresh Military Build-Up Threatens Stability in Libya's Tripoli
Tensions in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, have escalated sharply in recent days, raising concerns about renewed armed conflict despite ongoing international mediation efforts. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is actively working to de-escalate the situation and revive stalled political talks. Still, the security climate in western Libya remains fragile and volatile. The recent flare-up began with an armed standoff between rival factions, violating the existing ceasefire agreement. Forces from the General Security Apparatus entered Qadisiyah Island, prompting a swift military response from the Deterrence Apparatus for Combating Terrorism and Organized Crime. The latter re-deployed across several key zones in Tripoli, including Souk Al-Thulatha Island and Shatt Road. The force also reoccupied its former base at Rajma Camp and seized a military vehicle from the 444th Combat Brigade in Abu Mishmasha Island, detaining two brigade members. Simultaneously, sporadic gunfire was reported near Al-Nasr Street, where the Nawasi Brigade deployed units around the state radio headquarters. Videos from the area showed fires breaking out at the Sidi Muneidher cemetery, further amplifying fears of wider unrest. This security escalation comes just days after a joint agreement between the Libyan Presidential Council and the Government of National Unity (GNU) aimed to strengthen state authority and enhance public safety. In response to the rising tensions, Stephanie Khoury, Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, held a series of meetings in Benghazi with political and security stakeholders. The three-day consultations produced proposals to resolve Libya's prolonged political crisis. The key suggestions included holding simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections, or initiating parliamentary elections followed by drafting a permanent constitution and a presidential vote. Some participants also proposed forming a new political dialogue committee under Article 64 of the Libyan Political Agreement, with a mandate to finalize electoral laws and appoint a temporary unified government. UNSMIL stated that many participants appreciated the advisory committee's work and called for urgent steps to break the political deadlock and achieve a Libyan-led resolution. Attendees expressed frustration with persistent political stagnation, insecurity, economic hardship, and national divisions—particularly the ongoing split between rival governments. Despite the renewed diplomatic activity, UNSMIL voiced deep concern about reports of armed mobilizations in Tripoli and warned against the use of force. The mission urged immediate de-escalation, restraint, and a return to dialogue, emphasizing that 'there is no alternative to peaceful resolution.' The UN also condemned displays of military power and clashes in densely populated areas, warning that such actions endanger civilians and further complicate efforts to reach a political solution. As Tripoli teeters on the edge, the central question remains: Can Libyan factions overcome their divisions to reach a comprehensive settlement? The coming days may prove decisive, as international and local actors push for dialogue and stability in a country yearning for peace. Tags: libyaStephanie Khourytripoliunsmil
Libya Review
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Libya Review
UN Dismisses Rumours of Libya Talks in Tunisia
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has denied reports that it is organising or hosting a political dialogue between Libyan factions in Tunis on 28–29 May. In a statement posted on its official Facebook page, UNSMIL said, 'Contrary to recent media reports, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya is not organising or hosting any dialogue between Libyan parties in Tunis on 28 and 29 May.' The clarification comes as the UN mission released a detailed report outlining the proposals of its advisory committee, aimed at resolving key disputes blocking progress toward national elections. The committee, composed of 20 Libyan experts in legal, constitutional, and electoral affairs, held over 20 meetings in both Tripoli and Benghazi across three months. The report presents four potential pathways to end Libya's prolonged transitional period and pave the way for elections. The first option proposes holding presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously. The second suggests parliamentary elections first, followed by the adoption of a permanent constitution. The third path prioritises adopting a permanent constitution before any elections. The fourth option involves forming a political dialogue committee under the Libyan Political Agreement to finalise electoral laws, executive authority arrangements, and a permanent constitution. International support swiftly followed the release. The United States, United Kingdom, France, Italy, and the European Union delegation to Libya welcomed the initiative, describing the advisory committee's proposals as a timely opportunity for Libyans to re-engage in dialogue and revive momentum toward a peaceful, unified, and democratic future. The EU and its member states' embassies hailed the proposals as a 'significant achievement' in Libya's UN-facilitated political process, calling on stakeholders to constructively engage with the advisory committee's recommendations. Tags: libyaLibyan CrisisTunisiaunsmil
Libya Review
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Libya Review
UNSMIL Reveals Plan to End Political Deadlock in Libya
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has released the proposals of its advisory committee aimed at ending the country's prolonged transitional phase and paving the way for national elections. According to a statement issued by the mission, the report outlines four potential pathways that could serve as a roadmap for holding elections and concluding the transitional period. The options include: holding simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections; conducting parliamentary elections first, followed by the adoption of a permanent constitution; drafting and adopting a constitution before elections; or establishing a political dialogue committee based on the Libyan Political Agreement to finalise electoral laws, executive authority, and the permanent constitution. The proposals were presented by UN Special Representative Hanna Tetteh to key Libyan stakeholders in both eastern and western regions. The mission said it intends to share the committee's outcomes with the broader Libyan public to gather feedback and conduct opinion surveys. UNSMIL also announced plans to hold consultations on the report with political parties, youth and women's groups, civil society organisations, security bodies, community elders, and local leaders. The initiative seeks to build consensus around a viable and inclusive political roadmap, as Libya continues to grapple with deep divisions and the absence of unified national governance. The advisory committee was formed to provide actionable suggestions that could unlock the political stalemate and lay the groundwork for credible elections. With years of delay and growing public frustration, the UN hopes the newly proposed options will create momentum for a unified political solution. The mission reiterated its commitment to engaging all sectors of Libyan society in shaping the future of the country, emphasising the importance of national ownership and inclusive dialogue. Tags: ElectionslibyaLibyan Crisisunsmil
