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Scientific American
07-07-2025
- Climate
- Scientific American
Texas Flood Forecasts Were Accurate, But Not Sufficient to Save Lives
CLIMATEWIRE | The catastrophic floods that struck central Texas on Friday show that accurate weather forecasts alone aren't enough to save lives. The National Weather Service issued timely warnings in advance of the deadly floods, meteorologists say. But they emphasized that forecasts are only one piece of an effective response — local authorities must be able to interpret weather warnings, communicate them to the public and help communities get to safety in time. Now more than 80 people are dead, with dozens more missing across the region as of Monday morning, including at least 10 campers and a counselor from Camp Mystic summer camp on the banks of the flooded Guadalupe River. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Experts are still piecing together the reasons why. 'I think this situation needs to be reviewed, both from a forecast and warning perspective and from a decision support perspective,' said Louis Uccellini, former director of the National Weather Service. 'That involves a lot of work.' Authorities have resorted to finger-pointing in the wake of the floods. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county's top elected official, said at a press conference on Friday that 'we didn't know this kind of flood was coming.' Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd suggested at a separate press conference that NWS forecasts fell short in advance of the floods. Experts say that isn't true. Meteorologists can see extreme thunderstorms coming days ahead, but it's notoriously hard to pinpoint the exact amount of rain they'll produce, or how long they will linger in place, so far in advance. Meteorologists have to update their forecasts as better information becomes available. In the case of last week's floods, NWS began to escalate its warnings as much as 12 hours in advance, issuing flood watches beginning Thursday afternoon and upgrading to a flash flood warning by 1a.m. local time Friday, with more urgent warnings following into the early morning. 'There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods — but that's simply not true,' said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA in a lengthy Bluesky thread defending the NWS weather forecasts. Still, Swain added that 'even quite good weather forecasts do not automatically translate into life-saving predictions — there's a lot of other work that has to take place to contextualize the forecast and ensure it gets to [the] right people.' Forecasts aren't enough Vacancies in top roles at some local NWS offices serving affected communities in Texas are cause for concern, some experts say. The NWS office in San Angelo, which serves some of the hardest-hit communities, has no permanent meteorologist in charge, according to a list of vacancies published by the agency in June. And the Austin/San Antonio office, also serving flooded communities, is missing its warning coordination meteorologist and a science and operations officer, according to the same list. These roles often serve as liaisons between NWS meteorologists and local authorities or emergency managers. Warning coordination meteorologists, in particular, help translate forecasts into usable action plans that can aid the local authorities who make decisions and evacuate communities as severe weather systems approach. It's unclear whether those vacancies have affected coordination with local authorities. Top meteorologists at NWS San Angelo and NWS Austin/San Antonio did not immediately respond to questions about whether the openings posed any challenges during the floods. But Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees, said in an interview that vacancies at the Texas offices did not cause any problems during the floods. The offices called 'all hands on deck' to ensure that they were fully staffed during the emergency, he said, adding that 'they knew this was a critical life and death situation — bodies and lives were on the line in this one.' NOAA spokesperson Erica Grow Cei provided a timeline of NWS warnings between Thursday and Friday, confirming that the first flood watch went out at 1:18 p.m. local time Thursday and the first flash flood warning was issued at 11:41 p.m. for Bandera County. Another flash flood warning — tagged 'considerable' to indicate a threat of major damage — was issued at 1:14 a.m. for Bandera and Kerr counties, triggering wireless emergency alerts on enabled devices and warnings on NOAA Weather Radio. 'National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,' Cei said in an emailed statement, adding that the agency "remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.' Still, cellphone and radio alerts aren't always enough to prevent loss of life during disasters. They can't help people who disable their alerts, don't have cellphone service or don't have radios. Late-night and early-morning warnings can be an even greater challenge to distribute, when much of the public is asleep. Friday's floods occurred in the early hours of the morning, with the most urgent warnings issued after 1 a.m. 'The crux of this disaster is a failure of the last mile of communication,' Fahy said. 'The forecasts went out, they communicated the forecasts, they disseminated the watches and warnings. And the dilemma we have is there was nobody listening at 4 o'clock in the morning for these watches and warnings.' Most people who died in Friday's floods were located in Kerr County, which does not have a warning system, according to Kelly, the Kerry County judge, at a Friday news conference. Other cities in central Texas, like San Marcos, deploy outdoor weather sirens to warn of extreme weather events like floods and tornadoes, as local news reports have pointed out. In an interview with The New York Times, Kelly suggested that warning systems are expensive and 'taxpayers won't pay for it.' Questions also remain about disaster protocols at Camp Mystic, where at least 11 people remained missing as of Sunday afternoon. A policy on the camp's website suggests that campers are not permitted to have cellphones, smart watches, iPads or other devices with touchscreens. It's unclear whether counselors had access to devices equipped with emergency alerts or whether the camp had access to a NOAA weather radio. When asked Friday why nearby summer camps weren't evacuated in a timely manner, Kelly told reporters, 'I can't answer that.' Shrinking government Friday's floods have reignited concerns among scientists and disaster specialists about the impacts of the Trump administration's cuts to federal agencies tasked with responding to extreme weather events. Hurricane season began last month amid widespread chaos at NOAA and FEMA. Experts have warned that smaller disasters, like extreme thunderstorms and floods, are also likely to strain the federal government's disaster response systems this summer. That comes as extreme rainfall events and floods grow more intense as the climate warms. Record-breaking rainfall, like the kind that caused the Texas floods, is exactly the kind of event 'which is increasing the fastest in [a] warming climate,' said Swain in his Bluesky thread. 'So it's not a question of whether climate change played a role — it's only a question of how much.' Staffing shortages at the National Weather Service are an ongoing concern at offices across the country. The Trump administration also recently cut funding meant to help NWS warning coordination meteorologists travel for meetings and tabletop exercises with local authorities, Fahy said. These meetings, he said, help NWS staff members and emergency managers plan together for extreme events. 'We can't predict where the next severe storm or high-impact weather event will take place,' Fahy said. 'Therefore, we have to ask that the administration reconsider their decision to suspend the funding for the warning coordination meteorologists.' Meanwhile, uncertainties are still swirling around the future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. President Donald Trump has on multiple occasions vowed to overhaul the agency in ways that may make states responsible for more of the costs associated with extreme weather events. Trump has also declined to respond to 12 requests for federal disaster aid that governors have submitted since mid-May, federal records show. Trump, however, approved disaster aid Sunday for Kerr County, which will aid in recovery efforts and help county residents pay for emergency lodging, home repairs and supplies. It was the president's first disaster declaration since June 19, when he approved aid for parts of Tennessee that were damaged by tornadoes in April. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said his administration will seek to work with FEMA to assess the overall damage and determine whether additional counties should be eligible for FEMA aid. When asked by reporters Sunday whether he is still planning to phase out FEMA, Trump deflected. "Well, FEMA is something we can talk about later, but right now, they're busy working,' he said. 'So we'll leave it at that."
E&E News
07-07-2025
- Climate
- E&E News
Texas flood forecasts were accurate. It wasn't enough to save lives.
The catastrophic floods that struck central Texas on Friday show that accurate weather forecasts alone aren't enough to save lives. The National Weather Service issued timely warnings in advance of the deadly floods, meteorologists say. But they emphasized that forecasts are only one piece of an effective response — local authorities must be able to interpret weather warnings, communicate them to the public and help communities get to safety in time. Now more than 80 people are dead, with dozens more missing across the region as of Monday morning, including at least 10 campers and a counselor from Camp Mystic summer camp on the banks of the flooded Guadalupe River. Advertisement Experts are still piecing together the reasons why. 'I think this situation needs to be reviewed, both from a forecast and warning perspective and from a decision support perspective,' said Louis Uccellini, former director of the National Weather Service. 'That involves a lot of work.' Authorities have resorted to finger-pointing in the wake of the floods. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county's top elected official, said at a press conference on Friday that 'we didn't know this kind of flood was coming.' Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd suggested at a separate press conference that NWS forecasts fell short in advance of the floods. Experts say that isn't true. Meteorologists can see extreme thunderstorms coming days ahead, but it's notoriously hard to pinpoint the exact amount of rain they'll produce, or how long they will linger in place, so far in advance. Meteorologists have to update their forecasts as better information becomes available. In the case of last week's floods, NWS began to escalate its warnings as much as 12 hours in advance, issuing flood watches beginning Thursday afternoon and upgrading to a flash flood warning by 1a.m. local time Friday, with more urgent warnings following into the early morning. 'There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods — but that's simply not true,' said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA in a lengthy Bluesky thread defending the NWS weather forecasts. Still, Swain added that 'even quite good weather forecasts do not automatically translate into life-saving predictions — there's a lot of other work that has to take place to contextualize the forecast and ensure it gets to [the] right people.' Forecasts aren't enough Vacancies in top roles at some local NWS offices serving affected communities in Texas are cause for concern, some experts say. The NWS office in San Angelo, which serves some of the hardest-hit communities, has no permanent meteorologist in charge, according to a list of vacancies published by the agency in June. And the Austin/San Antonio office, also serving flooded communities, is missing its warning coordination meteorologist and a science and operations officer, according to the same list. These roles often serve as liaisons between NWS meteorologists and local authorities or emergency managers. Warning coordination meteorologists, in particular, help translate forecasts into usable action plans that can aid the local authorities who make decisions and evacuate communities as severe weather systems approach. It's unclear whether those vacancies have affected coordination with local authorities. Top meteorologists at NWS San Angelo and NWS Austin/San Antonio did not immediately respond to questions about whether the openings posed any challenges during the floods. But Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees, said in an interview that vacancies at the Texas offices did not cause any problems during the floods. The offices called 'all hands on deck' to ensure that they were fully staffed during the emergency, he said, adding that 'they knew this was a critical life and death situation — bodies and lives were on the line in this one.' NOAA spokesperson Erica Grow Cei provided a timeline of NWS warnings between Thursday and Friday, confirming that the first flood watch went out at 1:18 p.m. local time Thursday and the first flash flood warning was issued at 11:41 p.m. for Bandera County. Another flash flood warning — tagged 'considerable' to indicate a threat of major damage — was issued at 1:14 a.m. for Bandera and Kerr counties, triggering wireless emergency alerts on enabled devices and warnings on NOAA Weather Radio. 'National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,' Cei said in an emailed statement, adding that the agency 'remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.' Still, cellphone and radio alerts aren't always enough to prevent loss of life during disasters. They can't help people who disable their alerts, don't have cellphone service or don't have radios. Late-night and early-morning warnings can be an even greater challenge to distribute, when much of the public is asleep. Friday's floods occurred in the early hours of the morning, with the most urgent warnings issued after 1 a.m. 'The crux of this disaster is a failure of the last mile of communication,' Fahy said. 'The forecasts went out, they communicated the forecasts, they disseminated the watches and warnings. And the dilemma we have is there was nobody listening at 4 o'clock in the morning for these watches and warnings.' Most people who died in Friday's floods were located in Kerr County, which does not have a warning system, according to Kelly, the Kerry County judge, at a Friday news conference. Other cities in central Texas, like San Marcos, deploy outdoor weather sirens to warn of extreme weather events like floods and tornadoes, as local news reports have pointed out. In an interview with The New York Times, Kelly suggested that warning systems are expensive and 'taxpayers won't pay for it.' Questions also remain about disaster protocols at Camp Mystic, where at least 11 people remained missing as of Sunday afternoon. A policy on the camp's website suggests that campers are not permitted to have cellphones, smart watches, iPads or other devices with touchscreens. It's unclear whether counselors had access to devices equipped with emergency alerts or whether the camp had access to a NOAA weather radio. When asked Friday why nearby summer camps weren't evacuated in a timely manner, Kelly told reporters, 'I can't answer that.' Shrinking government Friday's floods have reignited concerns among scientists and disaster specialists about the impacts of the Trump administration's cuts to federal agencies tasked with responding to extreme weather events. Hurricane season began last month amid widespread chaos at NOAA and FEMA. Experts have warned that smaller disasters, like extreme thunderstorms and floods, are also likely to strain the federal government's disaster response systems this summer. That comes as extreme rainfall events and floods grow more intense as the climate warms. Record-breaking rainfall, like the kind that caused the Texas floods, is exactly the kind of event 'which is increasing the fastest in [a] warming climate,' said Swain in his Bluesky thread. 'So it's not a question of whether climate change played a role — it's only a question of how much.' Staffing shortages at the National Weather Service are an ongoing concern at offices across the country. The Trump administration also recently cut funding meant to help NWS warning coordination meteorologists travel for meetings and tabletop exercises with local authorities, Fahy said. These meetings, he said, help NWS staff members and emergency managers plan together for extreme events. 'We can't predict where the next severe storm or high-impact weather event will take place,' Fahy said. 'Therefore, we have to ask that the administration reconsider their decision to suspend the funding for the warning coordination meteorologists.' Meanwhile, uncertainties are still swirling around the future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. President Donald Trump has on multiple occasions vowed to overhaul the agency in ways that may make states responsible for more of the costs associated with extreme weather events. Trump has also declined to respond to 12 requests for federal disaster aid that governors have submitted since mid-May, federal records show. Trump, however, approved disaster aid Sunday for Kerr County, which will aid in recovery efforts and help county residents pay for emergency lodging, home repairs and supplies. It was the president's first disaster declaration since June 19, when he approved aid for parts of Tennessee that were damaged by tornadoes in April. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said his administration will seek to work with FEMA to assess the overall damage and determine whether additional counties should be eligible for FEMA aid. When asked by reporters Sunday whether he is still planning to phase out FEMA, Trump deflected. 'Well, FEMA is something we can talk about later, but right now, they're busy working,' he said. 'So we'll leave it at that.' Reporter Thomas Frank contributed.
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Former NWS directors warn staff cuts could lead to unnecessary deaths during severe weather
Five former directors of the National Weather Service are warning that additional cuts to the agency's staffing could lead to unnecessary deaths during severe weather such as tornadoes, wildfires and hurricanes. 'Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. We know that's a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines—and by the people who depend on their efforts,' they wrote in an open letter published Friday. The former directors — who served between 1988 and 2022 — said that between the Trump administration's cuts to probationary workers and personnel reductions through buyouts, the weather service's staffing has been reduced by more than 10% during the busiest time for severe storm predictions. They said they're also concerned about the Trump administration's budget request for the next fiscal year, after the administration outlined in a letter to Congress a $1.52 billion proposed cut for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the weather service's parent agency. 'NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services,' they wrote, if further cuts are implemented. 'Some forecast offices will be so short-staffed that they may be forced to go to part time services." Want to know more about how NWS cuts could cause meteorologists to miss detecting a tornado? Watch Hallie Jackson Now on NBC News Now, today at 5PM EST. Their outcry against cuts at the weather service, and the NOAA more broadly, shows that the agencies are a political pressure point as the Trump administration seeks to slash the size of government. Meteorologists said cuts to weather service staffing have led to less effective forecasts, which has spurred some bipartisan backlash in Plains states where severe weather claims many lives. The letter, which was sent to journalists by a publicist and also circulated on social media, was signed by the former weather service directors: Louis Uccellini, Jack Hayes, U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. John J. Kelly Jr. and U.S. Air Force Col. E.W. (Joe) Friday. Louis Uccellini during a news conference in Maryland in 2016. They added: 'As former directors of the National Weather Service, we know firsthand what it takes to make accurate forecasts happen and we stand united against the loss of staff and resources at NWS and are deeply concerned about NOAA as a whole.' In a statement, the weather service said it wouldn't discuss internal personnel and management matters. It acknowledged that it was juggling staffing concerns. 'We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission,' the statement said. 'The National Weather Service is adjusting some services due to temporary staffing changes at our local forecast offices throughout the country in order to best meet the needs of the public, our partners and stakeholders in each office's local area. Work is underway to restore services at local forecast offices around the country.' The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Forecasts during severe weather last month in Nebraska helped to clarify concerns about the cuts and prompted one congressional Republican to speak out. On April 17, as thunderstorms threatened Iowa and Nebraska, the weather service forecasting office in Valley, Nebraska, near Omaha, launched a special weather balloon at 3 p.m. to assess the risk from the storms, but it did not launch a regularly scheduled 7 p.m. balloon because of staff cuts. The Valley office was one of more than 10 sites where the weather service announced it would cancel balloon launches because of staffing shortages. Independent meteorologists said the 7 p.m. balloon launch near Omaha could have helped forecasters identify the risk of tornadoes sooner. Storms that appeared to be mostly a hail threat in data from the 3 p.m. weather balloon ended up producing six tornadoes that tracked across eastern Nebraska. After the storm, Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., said he took steps to intervene. In an April 25 news conference recorded by NBC-affiliate WOWT in Omaha, he said he learned the Valley office's staffing had fallen from 13 forecasters to eight, leaving it little choice but to halt weather balloon operations. After raising the issue, he told reporters he had received a call from the White House agreeing that changes were needed. Soon after, the weather service sent two forecasters to fulfill a temporary assignment at the Valley office. 'We've changed the policy across the country, and these temporary duty assignments are available for forecasters to go to all the other understaffed weather stations,' Flood said, adding that temporary assignments could become permanent and that weather forecasting offices would be allowed to do some new hiring. He said he planned to introduce legislation to classify forecasters as public safety workers, a measure that would likely exempt them from federal buyouts and other staff-cutting policies. 'They are clearly public safety. And that's something that we need to do in Congress,' Flood said. Rick Spinrad, former NOAA administrator under then-President Joe Biden, said the weather service was not a bloated target for budgetary cuts. 'The weather service is costing every American 1 cent per day,' Spinrad said. The staffing cuts have affected more than just weather balloon launches. Last month, the weather service office in Sacramento, California, sent a memo to local media partners saying that it would reduce overnight staffing and stop answering public phones, among other changes. Friday, one of the former directors, said he was particularly concerned that additional cuts could further stress overnight staffing. 'The worst case scenario we could have if this situation continues would be the development of a severe storm that would start after midnight,' he said, adding that overnight decisions by the weather service and local emergency planners could be the difference between sirens waking people up to a danger, such as a tornado. 'We have holes throughout the weather service now that are not well thought out.' This article was originally published on
NBC News
06-05-2025
- Climate
- NBC News
Former National Weather Service directors push back against cuts at the agency
Five former directors of the National Weather Service are warning that additional cuts to the agency's staffing could lead to unnecessary deaths during severe weather such as tornadoes, wildfires and hurricanes. 'Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. We know that's a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines—and by the people who depend on their efforts,' they wrote in an open letter published Friday. The former directors — who served between 1988 and 2022 — said that between the Trump administration's cuts to probationary workers and personnel reductions through buyouts, the weather service's staffing has been reduced by more than 10% during the busiest time for severe storm predictions. They said they're also concerned about the Trump administration's budget request for the next fiscal year, after the administration outlined in a letter to Congress a $1.52 billion proposed cut for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the weather service's parent agency. 'NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services,' they wrote, if further cuts are implemented. 'Some forecast offices will be so short-staffed that they may be forced to go to part time services." Their outcry against cuts at the weather service, and the NOAA more broadly, shows that the agencies are a political pressure point as the Trump administration seeks to slash the size of government. Meteorologists said cuts to weather service staffing have led to less effective forecasts, which has spurred some bipartisan backlash in Plains states where severe weather claims many lives. The letter, which was sent to journalists by a publicist and also circulated on social media, was signed by the former weather service directors: Louis Uccellini, Jack Hayes, U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. John J. Kelly Jr. and U.S. Air Force Col. E.W. (Joe) Friday. They added: 'As former directors of the National Weather Service, we know firsthand what it takes to make accurate forecasts happen and we stand united against the loss of staff and resources at NWS and are deeply concerned about NOAA as a whole.' In a statement, the weather service said it wouldn't discuss internal personnel and management matters. It acknowledged that it was juggling staffing concerns. 'We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission,' the statement said. 'The National Weather Service is adjusting some services due to temporary staffing changes at our local forecast offices throughout the country in order to best meet the needs of the public, our partners and stakeholders in each office's local area. Work is underway to restore services at local forecast offices around the country.' The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Forecasts during severe weather last month in Nebraska helped to clarify concerns about the cuts and prompted one congressional Republican to speak out. On April 17, as thunderstorms threatened Iowa and Nebraska, the weather service forecasting office in Valley, Nebraska, near Omaha, launched a special weather balloon at 3 p.m. to assess the risk from the storms, but it did not launch a regularly scheduled 7 p.m. balloon because of staff cuts. The Valley office was one of more than 10 sites where the weather service announced it would cancel balloon launches because of staffing shortages. Independent meteorologists said the 7 p.m. balloon launch near Omaha could have helped forecasters identify the risk of tornadoes sooner. Storms that appeared to be mostly a hail threat in data from the 3 p.m. weather balloon ended up producing six tornadoes that tracked across eastern Nebraska. After the storm, Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., said he took steps to intervene. In an April 25 news conference recorded by NBC-affiliate WOWT in Omaha, he said he learned the Valley office's staffing had fallen from 13 forecasters to eight, leaving it little choice but to halt weather balloon operations. After raising the issue, he told reporters he had received a call from the White House agreeing that changes were needed. Soon after, the weather service sent two forecasters to fulfill a temporary assignment at the Valley office. 'We've changed the policy across the country, and these temporary duty assignments are available for forecasters to go to all the other understaffed weather stations,' Flood said, adding that temporary assignments could become permanent and that weather forecasting offices would be allowed to do some new hiring. He said he planned to introduce legislation to classify forecasters as public safety workers, a measure that would likely exempt them from federal buyouts and other staff-cutting policies. 'They are clearly public safety. And that's something that we need to do in Congress,' Flood said. Rick Spinrad, former NOAA administrator under then-President Joe Biden, said the weather service was not a bloated target for budgetary cuts. 'The weather service is costing every American 1 cent per day,' Spinrad said. The staffing cuts have affected more than just weather balloon launches. Last month, the weather service office in Sacramento, California, sent a memo to local media partners saying that it would reduce overnight staffing and stop answering public phones, among other changes. Friday, one of the former directors, said he was particularly concerned that additional cuts could further stress overnight staffing. 'The worst case scenario we could have if this situation continues would be the development of a severe storm that would start after midnight,' he said, adding that overnight decisions by the weather service and local emergency planners could be the difference between sirens waking people up to a danger, such as a tornado. 'We have holes throughout the weather service now that are not well thought out.'
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will cuts to NOAA affect hurricane forecasts this season? Former NWS directors share concerns
With the 2025 hurricane season less than a month away, former directors of the National Weather Service are warning cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could lead to "loss of life." The season is expected to be above normal, according to predictions released so far. More than 880 workers were cut from NOAA in February, which includes the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, and another 1,000 employees were later included in President Trump's plan to cut costs in fiscal 2026. ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location In an open letter to the American people, five former National Weather Service directors said their "worst nightmare" is the cuts will lead to "needless loss of life." ➤ Weather forecasting agency NOAA to cut another 1,000 workers, reports say Some forecast offices might be so short-staffed they have to function only part-time, they warned. Another open letter was sent to Congress and the Trump administration on May 1 from the Union of Concerned Scientists. It, too, expressed "great alarm" on the impact cuts would have on NOAA. Here's what the former National Weather Service directors said. Who wrote the letter warning NOAA cuts could lead to 'needless loss of life?' The open letter from five National Weather Service leaders was written by: Louis Uccellini, NWS director 2013-2022 Jack Hayes, NWS director 2007-2012 Brigadier Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret), NWS director 2004-2007 Brigadier Gen. John J. Kelly Jr., USAF (Ret), NWS director 1998-2004 E.W. (Joe) Friday, Colonel USAF (Ret), NWS director 1988-1997 'We cannot let this happen:' Highlights from the letter "Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life," the five former NWS directors said in the letter. "We know that's a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines — and by the people who depend on their efforts. ➤ NOAA fires, then rehires crew members who flew planes into hurricanes "As former directors of the National Weather Service, we know firsthand what it takes to make accurate forecasts happen and we stand united against the loss of staff and resources at NWS and are deeply concerned about NOAA as a whole." Highlights from the letter said impacts and concerns associated with the cuts include: impact weather forecasting current staffing levels are down more than 10%, "just as we head into the busiest time for severe storm predictions like tornadoes and hurricanes" NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services. Some forecast offices will be so short-staffed that they may be forced to go to part-time services. fewer electronic technicians, who are responsible for maintaining the critical NEXRAD radars. forecasts are depended upon by pilots, ships, farmers, dam and reservoir operators, fishermen, tourism and recreational boating communities. Reactions to the NWS directors' letter The letter "lays out as clearly as any I've seen to date, just how these cuts, in practical terms, ARE and WILL IMPACT the agency's critical functions moving forward in time," said First Alert Weather. Ria Persad, founder and chair of StatWeather, posted on Linkedin, "Although I do not believe that these cuts were executed with prudence and care, I do know that there is a debate going on as to the line between private and public services. Some would argue that the private sector can get the job done better and cheaper. What should have happened is more support for public-private partnerships, similar to the Defense industry, not wholesale disruption. Cooperation is the key, not dismantling." On Reddit, r/NOAA, Glass_Strawberry4324 wrote, "I appreciate you guys at NOAA so much. ... You have always been extremely accurate and I just wanted to say that the work you do is indeed absolutely heroic and essential. I don't live in a tornado-prone area, but we do get hurricanes. I am so scared about the season this year..." Union of Concerned Scientists expresses 'great alarm' over NOAA cuts. "We write to you with great alarm as we watch the critically important science conducted at many US agencies, institutions, and universities come under increasing assault. "NOAA is the primary provider of critical, widely used forecasts for a range of extreme weather events, includinghurricanes, heatwaves, and drought," the letter from the Union of Concerned Scientists said. "This vital information is then used by emergency responders, policymakers, the private sector and the public to help prepare and protect communities, critical infrastructure and commerce." Read letter from former NWS directors in its entirety NOAA 'remains dedicated to its mission' In March, after a round of government layoffs, NOAA said in a statement to USA TODAY it "remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience." "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warning pursuant to our public safety mission," the statement concluded. What does the NOAA do? NOAA has sweeping responsibilities for safeguarding lives through monitoring and forecasting the nation's most violent storms, daily weather and long-term climate. Its agencies and employees have broad scientific duties that include collecting, storing and sharing data, maintaining a research fleet of satellites, ships and aircraft, as well as managing the nation's ocean and marine species and saltwater fishing. ➤ What is NOAA? Federal weather, climate agency hit with job cuts has a big mission. Among the agencies that employ its more than 6,700 engineers and scientists, are the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center and National Marine Fisheries Service. The National Hurricane Center falls under the National Weather Service. When is hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing tropical outlooks on May 15, highlighting any tropical disturbances showing potential for development. 2025 hurricane season predictions The National Hurricane Center will release its predictions for the 2025 hurricane season later this month. Early forecasts released so far predict: AccuWeather: Predicting 2025 could be a year with "volatile hurricanes" and warns storms could rapidly intensify shortly before making landfall. Named storms: 13 to 18 Hurricanes: 7-10 Major hurricanes: 3-5 Direct U.S. impacts: 3-6 Colorado State University: Season will be above normal. Florida ranked No. 1 when it came to the probability of a named storm coming within 50 miles, at 92%. 17 named storms 9 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes WeatherTiger: Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger, said 2025 has a "50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of": 16-21 tropical storms 7-9 hurricanes 3-4 major hurricanes Hurricane season 2025 names Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea: AN-dree uh Barry: BAIR-ree Chantal: shahn-TAHL Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will provide tropical weather coverage as conditions warrant and daily beginning May 15. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And subscribe here. Contributing: Gabe Hauari, Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA Today Network This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane forecasts: Past NWS directors call out impacts of cuts
