Texas Flood Forecasts Were Accurate, But Not Sufficient to Save Lives

Scientific American

07-07-2025

CLIMATEWIRE | The catastrophic floods that struck central Texas on Friday show that accurate weather forecasts alone aren't enough to save lives.
The National Weather Service issued timely warnings in advance of the deadly floods, meteorologists say. But they emphasized that forecasts are only one piece of an effective response — local authorities must be able to interpret weather warnings, communicate them to the public and help communities get to safety in time.
Now more than 80 people are dead, with dozens more missing across the region as of Monday morning, including at least 10 campers and a counselor from Camp Mystic summer camp on the banks of the flooded Guadalupe River.
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Experts are still piecing together the reasons why.
'I think this situation needs to be reviewed, both from a forecast and warning perspective and from a decision support perspective,' said Louis Uccellini, former director of the National Weather Service. 'That involves a lot of work.'
Authorities have resorted to finger-pointing in the wake of the floods.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county's top elected official, said at a press conference on Friday that 'we didn't know this kind of flood was coming.' Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd suggested at a separate press conference that NWS forecasts fell short in advance of the floods.
Experts say that isn't true.
Meteorologists can see extreme thunderstorms coming days ahead, but it's notoriously hard to pinpoint the exact amount of rain they'll produce, or how long they will linger in place, so far in advance. Meteorologists have to update their forecasts as better information becomes available.
In the case of last week's floods, NWS began to escalate its warnings as much as 12 hours in advance, issuing flood watches beginning Thursday afternoon and upgrading to a flash flood warning by 1a.m. local time Friday, with more urgent warnings following into the early morning.
'There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods — but that's simply not true,' said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA in a lengthy Bluesky thread defending the NWS weather forecasts.
Still, Swain added that 'even quite good weather forecasts do not automatically translate into life-saving predictions — there's a lot of other work that has to take place to contextualize the forecast and ensure it gets to [the] right people.'
Forecasts aren't enough
Vacancies in top roles at some local NWS offices serving affected communities in Texas are cause for concern, some experts say.
The NWS office in San Angelo, which serves some of the hardest-hit communities, has no permanent meteorologist in charge, according to a list of vacancies published by the agency in June. And the Austin/San Antonio office, also serving flooded communities, is missing its warning coordination meteorologist and a science and operations officer, according to the same list.
These roles often serve as liaisons between NWS meteorologists and local authorities or emergency managers. Warning coordination meteorologists, in particular, help translate forecasts into usable action plans that can aid the local authorities who make decisions and evacuate communities as severe weather systems approach.
It's unclear whether those vacancies have affected coordination with local authorities. Top meteorologists at NWS San Angelo and NWS Austin/San Antonio did not immediately respond to questions about whether the openings posed any challenges during the floods.
But Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees, said in an interview that vacancies at the Texas offices did not cause any problems during the floods.
The offices called 'all hands on deck' to ensure that they were fully staffed during the emergency, he said, adding that 'they knew this was a critical life and death situation — bodies and lives were on the line in this one.'
NOAA spokesperson Erica Grow Cei provided a timeline of NWS warnings between Thursday and Friday, confirming that the first flood watch went out at 1:18 p.m. local time Thursday and the first flash flood warning was issued at 11:41 p.m. for Bandera County. Another flash flood warning — tagged 'considerable' to indicate a threat of major damage — was issued at 1:14 a.m. for Bandera and Kerr counties, triggering wireless emergency alerts on enabled devices and warnings on NOAA Weather Radio.
'National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,' Cei said in an emailed statement, adding that the agency "remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.'
Still, cellphone and radio alerts aren't always enough to prevent loss of life during disasters. They can't help people who disable their alerts, don't have cellphone service or don't have radios.
Late-night and early-morning warnings can be an even greater challenge to distribute, when much of the public is asleep. Friday's floods occurred in the early hours of the morning, with the most urgent warnings issued after 1 a.m.
'The crux of this disaster is a failure of the last mile of communication,' Fahy said. 'The forecasts went out, they communicated the forecasts, they disseminated the watches and warnings. And the dilemma we have is there was nobody listening at 4 o'clock in the morning for these watches and warnings.'
Most people who died in Friday's floods were located in Kerr County, which does not have a warning system, according to Kelly, the Kerry County judge, at a Friday news conference. Other cities in central Texas, like San Marcos, deploy outdoor weather sirens to warn of extreme weather events like floods and tornadoes, as local news reports have pointed out.
In an interview with The New York Times, Kelly suggested that warning systems are expensive and 'taxpayers won't pay for it.'
Questions also remain about disaster protocols at Camp Mystic, where at least 11 people remained missing as of Sunday afternoon.
A policy on the camp's website suggests that campers are not permitted to have cellphones, smart watches, iPads or other devices with touchscreens. It's unclear whether counselors had access to devices equipped with emergency alerts or whether the camp had access to a NOAA weather radio.
When asked Friday why nearby summer camps weren't evacuated in a timely manner, Kelly told reporters, 'I can't answer that.'
Shrinking government
Friday's floods have reignited concerns among scientists and disaster specialists about the impacts of the Trump administration's cuts to federal agencies tasked with responding to extreme weather events.
Hurricane season began last month amid widespread chaos at NOAA and FEMA. Experts have warned that smaller disasters, like extreme thunderstorms and floods, are also likely to strain the federal government's disaster response systems this summer.
That comes as extreme rainfall events and floods grow more intense as the climate warms.
Record-breaking rainfall, like the kind that caused the Texas floods, is exactly the kind of event 'which is increasing the fastest in [a] warming climate,' said Swain in his Bluesky thread. 'So it's not a question of whether climate change played a role — it's only a question of how much.'
Staffing shortages at the National Weather Service are an ongoing concern at offices across the country. The Trump administration also recently cut funding meant to help NWS warning coordination meteorologists travel for meetings and tabletop exercises with local authorities, Fahy said. These meetings, he said, help NWS staff members and emergency managers plan together for extreme events.
'We can't predict where the next severe storm or high-impact weather event will take place,' Fahy said. 'Therefore, we have to ask that the administration reconsider their decision to suspend the funding for the warning coordination meteorologists.'
Meanwhile, uncertainties are still swirling around the future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
President Donald Trump has on multiple occasions vowed to overhaul the agency in ways that may make states responsible for more of the costs associated with extreme weather events. Trump has also declined to respond to 12 requests for federal disaster aid that governors have submitted since mid-May, federal records show.
Trump, however, approved disaster aid Sunday for Kerr County, which will aid in recovery efforts and help county residents pay for emergency lodging, home repairs and supplies. It was the president's first disaster declaration since June 19, when he approved aid for parts of Tennessee that were damaged by tornadoes in April.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said his administration will seek to work with FEMA to assess the overall damage and determine whether additional counties should be eligible for FEMA aid.
When asked by reporters Sunday whether he is still planning to phase out FEMA, Trump deflected.
"Well, FEMA is something we can talk about later, but right now, they're busy working,' he said. 'So we'll leave it at that."