National Hurricane Center monitors multiple systems ahead of possible tropical increase

Yahoo

17 hours ago

A tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean popped up Thursday night and is showing a low chance for development over the next few days.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
There's been only one named storm in the Atlantic basin so far this season but forecasters are keeping an eye on areas close to the U.S. showing some potential for development as we get close to the Fourth of July weekend.
The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Barry.
Keep an umbrella handy today. Showers and thunderstorms are predicted across most of Florida Friday, June 27, according to the National Weather Service.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., June 27.
A broad area of low pressure has formed over the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Some additional development is possible over the next few days when the system moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend.
By early next week this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of additional development.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
Formation chance through 48 hours: 20 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: 30 percent.
Tropical waves
Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward, and moving west around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward, and moving west around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 16N southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving west at 11 mph.
Tropical wave 4: Another tropical wave is along 90W from the northern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the East Pacific. It is moving west at around 6 mph.
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
There's no tropical system threatening Florida at this time.
However, AccuWeather forecasters are warning there is a potential for tropical development in the Gulf or off the southeast coast of the U.S. in early July, the holiday weekend.
'The potential is definitely there off the Southeast Coast or in the Gulf," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email. "The water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development in that area and the wind shear looks to be fairly low overall in that area.'
'We're forecasting a low chance that anything develops at this point, but this time of the year, this is where we would typically see tropical activity spin up in late June and early July, If anything develops over the next two weeks, it will happen close to home.
"There's nothing unusual here. We would typically look close to home for possible tropical development early in the season. If anything develops, it's likely that rainfall would be the primary concern.
'A cold front during the first couple of days of July will come off the southeast coast and stall. The tail of the front will essentially extend across Florida and into the Gulf. If that frontal boundary stalls for a couple of days and we see any convection, that's how we could end up with tropical development next week."
'We expect tropical activity to pick up later on in the hurricane season. This very well could be a back-half loaded season," DaSilva said.
Right now, dry air and wind shear are helping keep tropical storms from developing, which isn't unusual for early in the hurricane season, which started June 1.
"The second named storm in the Atlantic basin typically doesn't develop until mid to late July. We are on pace with the historical average. Records show that the first hurricane of the season typically doesn't develop until Aug. 11," DaSilva said.
Predictions issued by NOAA, AccuWeather and Colorado State University all forecast an above-normal hurricane season.
"We're forecasting a wet pattern across the Southeast in early July, regardless of any tropical development," DaSilva said.
'Much of Florida and the Southeast will see plenty of showers and thunderstorms during early July, and that could impact outdoor plans for the Fourth of July.
'Northern Florida and the Panhandle will see more rainfall than South Florida in early July.'
'There is a big plume of dust coming across the Atlantic right now. We expect more Saharan dust to reach portions of the southern U.S. from South Florida to Texas.
'We could have some Saharan dust high in the sky for the Fourth of July, especially across South Florida.'
'We could see some dirty rain across Florida that can make a mess on your car and other surfaces outside, thanks to the Saharan dust.'
Florida weather forecast for June 27, 2025
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Early start to the morning with showers and storms already firing up along the coastline and out over the Gulf this morning. High near 87.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Showers and thunderstorms likely today, with high near 92.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Thunderstorm chances Increasing this afternoon and few severe storms are possible. Expect storms to develop along the sea breezes and northward from central Florida during the afternoon hours. The main threat with storms will be strong wind gusts. High near 91.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Plenty of thunderstorms expected this afternoon-evening from increasing moisture and a sea breeze collision near the Orlando metro area. Strong storms are possible and there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the state. Temperatures expected to range from 88 in Daytona Beach to 87 in Stuart.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Quiet across South Florida this morning with the exception of a thunderstorm with plenty of lightning just offshore of Naples. Scattered storms and showers pick up in coverage this afternoon. Naples high near 90; West Palm Beach high near 84.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Interior portions of the forecast area are under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today with a threat of damaging wind gusts, hail 1inches in diameter or greater and locally heavy rainfall. Fort Myers high near 92 with heat index as high as 99; Sarasota high near 87.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story was updated to add a gallery and new information.
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: National Hurricane Center monitors multiple systems ahead of possible tropical increase