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Scientific American
15-07-2025
- Climate
- Scientific American
AI Couldn't Forecast the Texas Floods
CLIMATEWIRE | Artificial intelligence is showing promise when it comes to weather forecasting, but it still couldn't predict the Texas floods. The best-performing weather models during the July 4 floods were traditional ones specially designed to produce local forecasts at high resolution. Global-scale models were far less accurate — and so were AI models, weather experts say. 'All those new fancy AI models? They missed it too,' said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources, in a live YouTube talk on July 7. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Some meteorologists say that could change. AI weather models are starting to exhibit an ability for deep learning of atmospheric physics, which means they could be capable of forecasting unprecedented weather events based on atmospheric conditions. New AI models are "certainly capable of predicting 'out-of-sample' events — events that they haven't seen before,' said Corey Potvin, a scientist at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma. But looming budget cuts at NOAA — along with years of lagging federal investment in AI weather systems — are a major hurdle for the improvement of federal AI weather models, experts say. It's the latest example of how President Donald Trump's efforts to shrink government could hobble the country's weather forecasting capabilities, at a time when extreme weather is on the rise. Kim Doster, NOAA's director of communications, said in an email that budget cuts would not negatively impact the agency's research and forecasting priorities. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, head of the department that houses NOAA, "is committed to integrating advanced technologies like AI to deliver the fastest, most accurate data to Americans," she said. "This administration is working hand-in-hand with meteorologists and scientists to modernize research, cut forecast lead times, improve mapping, and streamline operations across the bureau." Today's most advanced AI weather prediction models largely exist in the private sector. Many of them failed to see the Texas floods coming with the same accuracy as the high-resolution traditional forecasts. One major reason is that many AI models are still focused on forecasting large-scale weather patterns at the global level, according to Russ Schumacher, a meteorologist at Colorado State University and Colorado's state climatologist. 'Forecasting precipitation at the local scale is very challenging, and has not really been the focus of most of the AI models in use now,' he said in an email. That's despite some recent suggestions that the Texas forecasts could have benefited from more investment in AI prediction at the National Weather Service. Tim Gallaudet, who served as acting NOAA administrator during the first Trump administration, suggested in a July 7 op-ed that NWS should 'incorporate more artificial intelligence' into its atmospheric, oceanic and hydrologic modeling systems for more accurate forecasts during incidents like the Texas floods. But some scientists have expressed concerns about AI's ability to forecast record-breaking weather events, like the extreme rainfall that triggered the Texas floods. AI systems are often trained on historical weather data, and extreme events are — by definition — rare. That means there aren't many examples of them for AI systems to learn from. In a 2023 comment published in the scientific journal Nature, weather experts Imme Ebert-Uphoff and Kyle Hilburn warned that AI systems are 'often unpredictable when the program operates under conditions that it has never encountered before,' adding that extreme weather events 'might therefore trigger highly erratic predictions.' Potvin predicted new AI models could forecast rare events, though not quite as accurately as they would if they had lots of examples to train on. And although most AI models are still focused on large-scale weather patterns, high-resolution models are likely on the horizon. NOAA is working on some local weather-modeling projects that include AI components. The National Severe Storms Laboratory's experimental Warn-on Forecast system, or WoFS, is designed to rapidly incorporate radar and satellite observations into a high-resolution model. It can produce updated forecasts about every 15 minutes, increasing meteorologists' ability to accurately warn communities about sudden extreme events, like flash floods. NSSL scientists are also perfecting an AI version of WoFS, known as WoFSCast. By design, it can only perform as well as the original non-AI model — but it can theoretically produce forecasts much faster and with far less computing power, making it a cheaper option for local NWS offices. There's also NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, known for its ability to forecast storms at the local scale. HRRR was one of the models that best predicted the rainfall in Texas — and scientists are developing an AI version as well, a model known as HRRRCast. 'As far as I know, WoFSCastand HRRRCast are the only [AI] models currently being developed for higher resolution prediction,' Potvin said. Lag in investment NOAA still lags far behind the private sector when it comes to investment in AI weather prediction. That's a big concern for NWS forecasts, some experts say. AI is swiftly becoming a new frontier in weather modeling, and it could easily become an asset to NWS meteorologists — if NOAA had more resources to invest. 'The private sector is well ahead of where NOAA is now, to the point that even if we were in normal budget cycles, I'm not sure they could catch up,' Mary Glackin, former president of the American Meteorological Society, said at an AMS-hosted panel last week. Meanwhile, the White House has proposed around $2.2 billion in cuts to NOAA in its budget request for fiscal year 2026. Chief among these is the elimination of NOAA's entire research arm. That includes the agency's large network of cooperative research institutes and laboratories, like the NSSL, where researchers are still improving forecasting systems like WoFS and its AI counterpart. Scientists have warned that these cuts would damage NOAA's weather forecasting capabilities, putting communities at risk when extreme weather events strike. The private sector alone can't make up for lagging federal investments in weather forecasting technology, scientists and meteorologists have warned. Agencies like NWS are invested in public service and free forecasts, with the aim of ensuring that all U.S. communities — even those with limited resources — have access to high-quality, life-saving weather warnings. More public-private partnerships could help NOAA get a jump on AI weather system development, Glackin suggested. Such an arrangement 'meets the needs of the private sector, who are looking for a profit and a competitive edge, but remains true to the public service concept and not leaving the least behind,' she said. But such partnerships require the continued existence of research infrastructure at NOAA — which might not survive if Congress follows through with Trump's proposed cuts. Meanwhile, AI isn't the only frontier in weather forecasting. Traditional weather models also improve year over year as scientists collect and incorporate more data. That's how hurricane forecasts become so advanced over the last few decades. "As big a fan as I am of AI, it would be a mistake to put all of our investment into AI and then neglect the traditional side of weather modeling,' Potvin said. 'Because that in the end, would be undercutting future AI development.' Meteorologists have warned that traditional weather forecasts will plateau — or even degrade — if Trump's proposed cuts go into effect and hamstring NOAA's research capabilities. 'I worry about the loss of investments in science,' Brad Colman, another former AMS president, said at the July 10 panel. 'That's our seed corn, and the impact of that will be long-lasting. So I really hope that a greater wisdom will prevail, and that we will maintain that capacity.'
Los Angeles Times
10-07-2025
- Politics
- Los Angeles Times
Thoughts and prayers? Sure, but hold the Trump administration accountable
'I'm going to give you everything you want,' President Trump told disaster-stricken residents and local officials. 'I'm going to give you more than any president would have ever given you.' That was in January, in Los Angeles, in the wake of the catastrophic Palisades and Eaton fires. If Trump could express such magnanimity in California, typically the blue-state butt of his partisan jabs and threats, imagine what he'll tell red-state Texans on Friday when he visits the flood-ravaged Hill Country, where the usually easy-going Guadalupe River turned mass killer on the Fourth of July. He's sure to promise that the federal government will spare no expense. (Note: California is still waiting.) But words are cheap, especially for the truth-challenged Trump. Even as the president, playing Daddy Warbucks, promises money in the moment, he must be held to account for his administration's continued mindless axing of federal funds and government-wide expertise (a process greenlighted on Tuesday by the ever-accommodating Supreme Court) — and not least in gutting essential agencies that forecast weather, warn of storms and then help Americans recover from disasters. Trump isn't to blame for the deaths and destruction in Texas. But raising questions about the effect of his, and the now-disfavored Elon Musk's, reckless rampage through government offices isn't 'depraved and despicable,' as White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt fulminated on Monday. It's merely holding the government to account, which is, to be sure, a foreign concept to a president accustomed to impunity. (Leavitt's protestations are particularly rich considering that Trump falsely blamed then-President Biden after Hurricane Helene during last year's campaign, and initially suggested on Sunday that the Texas tragedy was somehow a 'Biden set-up.') For a decade now, Trump has exploited Americans' disdain of government, even when he's at the head of it. But Americans don't like government until they need it, and they expect it to keep them safe in the meantime. Because Trump is taking Musk's chainsaw to federal agencies, with the acquiescence of Congress' Republican majorities, he should be on the defensive from here on out for every emergency, crisis and tragedy that might have been prevented or at least mitigated by federal action. Most of Trump's proposed and attempted cuts have yet to take effect. Some — say, cutbacks in public health and scientific research programs — might not be fully felt for years. Yet even if administration reductions, eliminations and layoffs aren't culpable this time, in this tragedy, what about the next? Because there will be a next time. Consider: Climate change is demonstrably turbocharging the number and intensity of severe storms, yet Trump's budget calls for closing the National Severe Storms Laboratory, which has pioneered forecasting technology for years. It's way past time to ignore the familiar post-catastrophe mantra that people inappropriately politicize calamity by raising questions, proposing remedies and, yes, laying blame: Only thoughts and prayers allowed. We've heard it in recent days not only from the likes of Leavitt, but also from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and his fellow Republican, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who inserted further cuts to weather forecasting funds as part of the One Big Ugly Bill that Trump signed into law on the Fourth, as Texans dealt with the flood nightmare. The victims deserve more. We all do. For months since Trump took office and began his slashing spree on Day 1 with his executive orders, critics and experts have predicted that his actions could boomerang, in particular when it comes to weather-related threats, such as the hurricane season underway. Just to cite one example: Back in April, Rep. Zoe Lofgren of San Jose, the senior Democrat on the House committee that oversees the National Weather Service, complained (presciently?), 'Chaotic and illegal firings, coercions to resign, reductions in force, and a general obsession with destroying the morale of dedicated public servants have left the National Weather Service's work force so strained they cannot carry out their duties as they once did.' So when we have a natural disaster like that in Texas, where survivors lament inadequate warnings, why should Lofgren or anyone else keep quiet and just think and pray? It's political, but it's proper as well that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York asked for an investigation of whether staffing shortfalls at the weather service contributed to the Texas flood's death toll. Republican, Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran, cited Texas' plight at a Senate hearing on Wednesday to complain that Trump's federal hiring freeze has also left his state and others short of meteorologists, and without 24/7 coverage when tornadoes ripped through Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas in May. Early evidence and anecdotes suggest that federal forecasters did their job in warning Texans of flooding hours in advance. But years of penny-pinching and antitax zeal at the local and state levels, especially, meant that the region — known as 'flash flood alley' — had no system in place to adequately transmit the warnings to rural residents in the dead of night. Yet the feds — Trump mainly — still have much to answer for. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes the National Weather Service, was among the earliest targets of his misnamed Department of Government Efficiency. Trump said he wants to phase out the Federal Emergency Management Agency completely. Months before the storm, a union official representing staff of the weather service, Tom Fahy, told the New York Times that its offices nationwide were 'struggling to maintain operations' amid what the agency acknowledged as 'severe shortages' of meteorologists and other employees. After the storm, Fahy said that vacancies at the two offices overseeing the Texas Hill Country were roughly double what they were when Trump took office. The longtime 'warning coordination meteorologist' for the Hill Country in April announced that he was 'sad' to prematurely end his career amid the administration cutbacks and early-retirement offers. A local media outlet lamented the man's departure: 'The importance of experience' in the job he'd held 'cannot be understated.' Abbott is being defensive, as he should be. 'Who's to blame?' the three-term governor snapped at a reporter on Tuesday. 'That's the word choice of losers.' Expect more such vituperation when the Guv greets his friend, the president, on Friday — from both men — should anyone suggest they bear any blame. Losers? If the word fits… @Jackiekcalmes @ @jkcalmes
The Hill
07-07-2025
- Climate
- The Hill
Texas flash flooding a ‘worst-case scenario,' says former NOAA official
A retired National Severe Storms Laboratory employee in a Monday interview described the flooding in central Texas as a 'worst-case scenario.' 'This really was a worst-case scenario where you had six to nine inches of rain fall in just a few hours, right on top of that south fork of the river,' Alan Gerard, a meteorologist with 35 years of experience, said on 'CNN This Morning.' 'And the unfortunate reality is all the soil and hills in that area just funnel all of that rainfall right into the river, and you can just get these tremendous flood waves that develop extremely quickly,' added Gerard, who worked for part of the National Oceanic and and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Gerard said scientists are not equipped to predict the severity of the flooding more than 'an hour or two' ahead of time, which does not always provide people enough time to evacuate. There also is a risk that folks won't receive that warning in time, since it's so last minute. 'The unfortunate reality is, we can do a pretty good job of identifying the kind of overall environment that's supportive for flash flooding. But identifying the setup for a worst-case scenario like this — which this really was — is really beyond the state of what we can do right now,' he said. Gerard said the National Weather Service issues flash flood alerts, which warn people that 'conditions are ripe for this kind of a torrential rainstorm to occur,' but he acknowledged it's unlikely that people will evacuate each time they get a flash flood warning — especially in these places prone to flash flooding. 'The reality is, if people evacuated or didn't go into these areas every time there was a flood watch out, it would be very difficult for these places to operate because, I mean, it does happen fairly regularly, especially at this time of year. It's a very flood-prone area. So, there's always this balance,' he said. Gerard said, ideally, scientists would be able to warn people of the severity of the storm six to nine hours ahead of time. 'That would have been a different situation and I think could have supported much more proactive actions, including potential evacuations,' he said. 'Unfortunately, we don't have that kind of skill yet,' he added. 'We're working with research to try to develop modeling and approaches to forecasting that would enable us to better provide that kind of information, but, unfortunately, we're just not really there yet.' The death toll from the catastrophic flooding in Texas is nearing 90, and experts warn that number could continue to rise as search and rescue operations continue.
New York Times
03-07-2025
- Climate
- New York Times
Clouds Are Cool, but Have You Ever Seen One Like This?
The dramatic mass moving ashore one afternoon in Portugal this week looked like something out of a movie: dozens of people who had gathered at a beach to escape an oppressive heat wave stared up at the sky as it inched toward them. Was an alien ship about to emerge? Should someone call Jeff Goldblum? But it was a cloud that stopped people in their track — a 'roll cloud,' to be specific, which more typically form from thunderstorms. In this case, the cloud formed at the intersection of the ocean and the land as a cool, moist air mass moving over the Atlantic Ocean collided with dry, hot air over southwestern Portugal, which, like much of Europe, has been sweltering in a weeklong heat wave. The roll cloud is created by a wave in the atmosphere that causes a rising and sinking motion over adjacent areas, allowing the clouds to form and appear to roll forward. You can see that below in an aerial image, where the crest and trough of the cloud are visible and resemble an ocean wave. Sean Waugh, a severe storms expert with the National Severe Storms Laboratory who typically encounters such clouds as thunderstorms move over the Plains in the United States, compared the clouds to what happens when a rock is dropped in a pond. The cloud is just the leading edge of a ripple in the atmosphere. While the cloud in Portugal occurred in the afternoon, it was most likely a 'morning glory,' a specific type of cloud often associated with roll clouds that more commonly occurs after sunrise in the Gulf of Carpentaria in Australia. This type of roll cloud can stretch many hundreds of miles long, which is why it was seen up and down much of the central coast of Portugal. The heat wave that has swept Europe this week has led to multiple deaths and helped fuel wildfires in Greece, Turkey and Portugal. High temperatures are expected to spread east in the coming days. Tracking Heat Across Europe See detailed maps of the latest temperature forecasts across Europe.
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NOAA releases 2026 fiscal year budget, looks to terminate or reduce over 50 programs/projects
ALABAMA (WHNT) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2026 fiscal year budget, which includes cuts and decreases for several key programs and projects. According to the report, NOAA is requesting a budget of $4,515,302,000. 'The NOAA FY 2026 request will make critical investments to better enable NOAA to address current and emerging needs of the Nation. Through this budget, NOAA will help unleash American energy through initiatives supporting the marine mining market, leverage innovation in the weather and space enterprises, and enable and promote economic growth. Additional details are provided in the ensuing exhibits,' NOAA's budget proposal says. Some programs that are to be terminated or decreased, according to the fiscal budget, are: Decreases The National Severe Storms Laboratory Sustained Ocean Observations and Monitoring Reduction Tornado Severe Storm Research / Phased Array Radar Reduction Science and Technology Integration Decrease Polar Weather Satellites National Centers for Environmental Information Decrease Product Development, Readiness and Application Decrease Terminations Terminate NOAA Community Project Funding/NOAA Special Projects Termination of NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Terminate Federal Support for National Estuarine Research Reserve System Habitat Conservation and Restoration Termination Termination of OAR's Climate Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes Termination of OAR's Weather Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes The FY 2026 budget eliminates all funding for climate, weather, and ocean Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes. It also does not fund Regional Climate Data and Information, ClimateCompetitive Research, the National Sea Grant College Program, Sea Grant Aquaculture Research, or the National Oceanographic Partnership Program. Of the remaining funded programs, the U.S. Weather Research Program, Tornado Severe Storm Research / Phased Array Radar, the Joint Technology Transfer Initiative, High Performance Computing Initiatives, and Research Supercomputing will be transitioned to the NWS and Ocean Exploration and Research, Integrated Ocean Acidification, and Sustained Ocean Observations and Monitoring will be transitioned to NOS. These adjustments will allow these research programs to carry out research that is more directly related to the NOAA mission. NOAA FY 2026 budget You can read the full NOAA 2026 Fiscal Year budget here. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
