Latest news with #NeilDutta
Bloomberg
6 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed's Waller Already Acting Like Shadow Chair: RenMac's Dutta
Neil Dutta, head of US economic research at Renaissance Macro, makes the case for Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller to be the next Fed Chair and says he's already making the argument for rate cuts and acting like a shadow chair. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Americans' optimism on the job market is starting to wane
The latest read on consumer confidence showed that, right now, Americans aren't as hopeful about the labor market as they used to be. It's a soft data point that could be an indicator of potential economic weakness ahead. Yahoo Finance Anchor Julie Hyman takes a closer look at the labor market differential in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. One of the real issues for the Federal Reserve, putting inflation aside for a moment, is what is going to happen for the labor market. Of course, that's the other big part of their dual mandate. And we've had an increasing number of fed officials themselves as well as economists who have been pointing to maybe some underlying signs of weakness in the labor market. One of those signs is made evident in survey data that came out from the conference board and it showed the so-called labor differential. This is the difference between those who were surveyed who said jobs were plentiful or easy to get and those who said jobs were hard to get. The difference between those, again, referred to as the labor differential, 11.1 percentage points was the lowest that we have seen in more than four years since March of 2021. Now, again, this is what some economists will call soft data versus hard data, right? It is what someone is saying they think or feel versus what is actually happening in the labor market, say the uh the monthly jobs report, for example. But nonetheless, it is yet another sign that some economists are pointing to. One of them is Neil Dutta. Uh he says consumers do not seem to share with the characterization that labor market conditions are solid. That is the way that some officials, including J. Powell of the Fed have been characterizing those labor market conditions. So this is something that we are going to continue to watch and see if it does start showing up in that hard data.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Continuing jobless claims reach highest level since November 2021, initial claims hover at 8-month high
Weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained at their highest level in eight months during the first full week of June while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 248,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending June 7, flat from the week prior and above economists' expectations for 242,000. Meanwhile, 1.956 million continuing claims were filed, up from 1.902 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. The data's release comes as the US labor market continues to show signs of slowing. "Continuing jobless claims keep rising to fresh highs," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Thursday morning. "This means unemployment is going up. Initial claims have perked up but remain tame by comparison. Taken at face value, it implies that rates of hiring have declined even if rates of firing have not materially increased." Other recent data has showed signs of a slowly cooling labor market as hiring slows. The US economy added 139,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, below the 177,000 added in April. Revisions to prior reports revealed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in April and March than initially thought. Meanwhile, ADP data showed the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. The labor data, combined with recent inflation reports that have showed price increases cooling, has heated up debate on when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next. Traders are now betting there is a 25% chance the Fed cuts rates at least once by the end of its July meeting, up from a 19% chance seen a day ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Dutta said, "Because uncertainty is high and the Fed is waiting, the scale of the policy mistake could be that much larger if inflation fails to turn up the way they assume!" Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
Daily Mail
11-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Stunning inflation report shows first tariff effects and sends Wall Street on a wild ride
Consumer prices ticked up last month, rising 2.4 percent in May compared to the same time last year. Although it is a slight increase on the month before, when prices rose 2.3 percent, the increase of 0.1 percent suggests inflation is actually slowing as it is a smaller jump than previous months. The latest figures brought a sigh of relief to Wall Street where analysts had forecast prices to rise closer to 3 percent. The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq jumped 0.6 percent in future trading on the back of the news. The Department of Labor statistics are a surprise to some economists who have expected Trump's tariffs to have more of an inflationary effect so far. Major retailers such as Walmart have said they are raising prices to offset the cost of tariffs. However, the latest report shows that other major consumer prices are down, including smartphones which fell 1.6 percent and airline fares down 2.7 percent. Traders now believe there is a 75 percent chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September, compared to 60 percent yesterday, Bloomberg reported. 'Ultimately, if tariff rates are up, and core goods prices aren't up by as much as the consensus thought it implies more margin squeeze at retailers and less price pass through,' Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro told Bloomberg.
Time of India
08-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US Share Market prediction: Stocks soar toward records — but will inflation and Trump's Tesla feud trigger a crash?
As the U.S. stock market hovers just below all-time highs, investors and policymakers alike are bracing for new economic signals, with fresh inflation data set to headline a crucial week for financial markets. Following last week's broad-based rally, momentum remains strong. The S&P 500 index is now within 2% of setting a new record, buoyed by Friday's jobs report that momentarily eased recession concerns. Major U.S. indices closed higher for the week — the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced more than 1%, as mentioned in a report by Yahoo Finance. Focus Shifts to Inflation Readings A significant part of this week's market direction will depend on updates from May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Economists anticipate that annual headline inflation rose to 2.5% in May, up from April's 2.3% — signaling a potential pause in recent disinflationary momentum. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to have increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly up from April's 2.8%. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like The Average IQ Is 90. Check if Your Is Higher IQ International Undo With the Federal Reserve set to meet on June 18, these figures could inform the central bank's near-term stance on interest rates. Wall Street analysts expect the Fed to maintain current policy settings, though signs of persistent inflation could revive debate about future rate paths. Under the Hood: Labor Market Still Fragile Although the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, and the unemployment rate remained officially unchanged at 4.2%, deeper metrics tell a more nuanced story. Economists such as Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro note that downward revisions to April's job figures, a softening in prime-age employment, and a marginal rise in the unrounded unemployment rate — now at 4.244% — suggest the labor market may be weaker than headlines suggest. Live Events "The Fed and markets appear focused on surface-level stability, but the data reveals emerging structural cracks," Dutta observed, as quoted in a report by Yahoo Finance. Corporate Earnings and Apple's Developers Conference On the corporate front, earnings reports from Oracle , Adobe, and GameStop headline a light calendar. Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference is also expected to generate headlines, particularly around the tech giant's AI strategies and software upgrades. Market Volatility Eases Despite Trade Concerns Investor anxiety around tariffs appears to have softened. Despite a volatile April marked by tariff hikes, markets have remained relatively steady. Experts like Barclays' Venu Krishna attribute this to a broader realization that aggressive tariff measures may not materialize in full. This has contributed to declining volatility, as measured by the VIX, and a gradual rebound in consumer and corporate confidence. Political Feud Spills into Markets Separately, tensions between President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have spilled into financial headlines. After Musk criticized Trump's tax bill, the president threatened to revoke government subsidies for Tesla. The feud contributed to Tesla's 14% single-day stock plunge on Thursday — the largest market cap loss in its history — dragging the stock market along with it. Though Tesla shares recovered slightly on Friday, experts caution that prolonged tensions between Trump and major corporate figures could create further market instability. FAQs Why is this week considered crucial for the U.S. financial markets? Key economic data releases — especially May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) — are expected this week. These will provide important signals on inflation trends ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on June 18. How close is the U.S. stock market to an all-time high? The S&P 500 is currently within 2% of setting a new record, buoyed by strong momentum from last week's jobs report and broad market gains.
