Latest news with #PangaeaPolicy
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What Trump is trying to achieve with his tariffs
Stocks fell on fresh worries about President Trump's tariff plans. In the video above, Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines explains why the president is making tariff announcements and what he is hoping to achieve with his tariff plans. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. These are negotiating tactics. What Trump is trying to do, tellingly, is not impose tariffs immediately with no warning, uh, uh, April. He's trying to give, he's trying to give recalcitrant, uh, what he views as recalcitrant countries time to actually get their acts together and come in with a deal. In the perfect Trump world, uh, put together very well by Scott Bessant and Howard Lutnick, uh, in the perfect Trump world, there would be no tariffs, because what would happen is that the other country would always agree to lower its tariffs to the minimum possible and open its trade and get rid of its trade barriers to let more United States trade in. And thus, there would be no need for tariffs. This is an imperfect world, so you're going to see these fluctuations over time, but we're, we're, we're here, we're moving towards a less tariffed world than we were before. It, it's impressive, Terry, how much power and authority the president has here. You know, he, he posts these on social media, he can move markets with it. You know, just a quick civics 101 class here if you would. Where is, where is Congress in all this? Well, Congress is in the role, Congress has two roles here. Firstly, Congress passed the law that prior presidents signed to give the president the authority to do these things. So, it's, you know, it's really Congress's authority the president is exercising the authority. So, but Congress has kind of the, the, you know, kind of the power of the chain pulling, if you will. If Trump really got way far off of where Congress thought he should go on tariffs, Congress has the ability to kind of guide and grumble and suggest he ought to come back in a little bit more. And I would suggest that Congress in fact provides a lot of that subtle pressure today right now because what, what this Republican Congress wants is a continuation of trade, not a situation where trade proves to be yet one more bump in, in allied relationships at a particularly difficult geopolitical time. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Why Elon Musk's America First party may not 'amount to much'
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced that he plans to launch a new political party called the "America Party." But Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines says that Musk only passes one of the five tests he has for a third party to be successful. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. I think Musk's uh America party isn't likely to uh amount too much for. And I'll give you I'll give you a five test and he only meets one of them. First is money. Uh, I think he's got enough. So check on that. Secondly, the brand. I mean, he's torched his brand with both the most engaged people on the left and the most engaged people on the right. That's hard to do, but this is an unusual guy. So I think the brand is probably not in good shape. Thirdly, uh does he have trust? I mean, you know, the brand's in the toilet. So I I would say not not any trust to move things forward. Uh, fourthly, does he have a plan? Uh, not so far except to provide people more freedom and uh and cut spending. So good luck with that cuz he couldn't do it when he was actually sitting next to the president. And fifthly, are there results uh available? Uh he couldn't achieve what he wanted to achieve uh the few months he was in there. So why would anybody think he could do it now? Plus, existing politicians find him radioactive. So uh on both the left and the right. So I think he's uh I I think this isn't going to amount to much, frankly.
Axios
07-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trade deals come and go. Can stocks rally either way?
Investors just got three extra weeks to decide if they need to care about tariffs again. But Wall Street's tariff optimism could be tested if President Trump picks tougher trade negotiation tactics over markets in the month ahead. Why it matters: How tariff negotiations unfold amid the new extension could either confirm the TACO trade, or signal that high levies are a risk investors need to account for again, which could threaten the rally that's driven stocks to fresh all-time highs. Catch up quick: Trump is now set to send letters on Monday to a dozen other countries, setting tariff rates on their imports. The letters could reaccelerate a trade war that some investors felt had begun to fizzle. His threat late Sunday night to put additional punitive tariffs on BRICS countries unsettled markets even further. Early Monday morning, S&P 500 futures were about 0.3% lower. Between the lines: Investors may be falling prey to black-and-white thinking, according to Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy. "Markets want it all one way or the other, and the answer is we're kind of living in the twilight world where it's not easy," he tells Axios. Haines points to the press in India calling any tariff deals with the U.S. "phase one" deals, indicating they could change. Regardless of the back and forth for each country, some form of tariffs are likely to continue to exist. Zoom out: Tariffs matter to investors if they matter to consumers, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Companies are set to pass on 70% of the cost of levies to consumers through higher prices, according to economists at Goldman Sachs. If consumers can eat that increased cost without decreasing spending overall, that could keep corporate earnings intact. If consumers cut back on spending, which is starting to show in economic data, that could hinder corporate earnings growth, which could weigh on the broader market. Friction point: "The market is underestimating the probability that Trump imposes unilateral tariffs," David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, says in a video to clients on Sunday. Woo argues it's time to "get properly short the market," as current equity levels make investors vulnerable to a negative shock, which could come from tariff policy. Bottom line: The levies Trump announced in April sent stocks to the brink of a bear market. Since then, consensus has been building around better-than-expected trade deals, or Trump flinching in the face of a bad market reaction.
Axios
03-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Sector winners and losers of the "big, beautiful bill"
Manufacturing and defense companies stand to win from the " big, beautiful bill," while wind and solar fare worse and hospitals could be hit hard. Why it matters: Investors welcome the certainty of the bill, but are also nervous about heavily exposed sectors. The big picture: Companies will get expanded provisions on itemization and expenses, including 100% bonus depreciation, which allows business to deduct expenses immediately rather than over three years. Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners says this could benefit manufacturers, although the stimulative effects of the bill could be muted by tariffs on things like steel and aluminum. "The John Deeres and Caterpillars of the world benefit from a 100% bonus depreciation" historically, she says. Defense spending also benefits, as armed services spending is set to increase by $150 billion under the bill. Couple that with the administration's push to grow the defense budget to over $1 trillion annually and it's a boost in spending that "markets do not appreciate…at all," says Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy. Palantir, an AI-focused defense contractor with ties to Donald Trump, is still among the top five best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year. The other side: While a proposed tax on wind and solar projects was taken out of the bill, tax credits are still set to be removed. Tax credits are key to the economics of solar installation investments, and "for many in that sector, this bill would represent their fears confirmed," per a statement from John Gimigliano, principal in charge of federal tax legislative and regulatory services at KPMG U.S. The removal of a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit is set to be a headwind for EV sales, which could be another pain point for Tesla (though its stock recently rallied even after soft delivery numbers.) Hospitals have"just gotten absolutely smoked, so much so that quite frankly there's no way that these cuts go into effect," according to Treyz. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated $1.1 trillion in health care cuts from the bill. This could weigh on hospital REITs that benefited from that government spending. The loss of social safety nets for millions of Americans could be an additional pressure point to the broader economy over time. The bottom line: Winners and losers aside, at least the market has a better handle on what's coming now.
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This week in Trumponomics: Waiting for the bomb
President Trump has a binary decision to make: Whether to join Israel's attacks on Iran or abstain. But the consequences, either way, will likely be unpredictable, messy, and possibly momentous. Markets have been blasé about the widening Middle East war that erupted on June 13 when Israel attacked Iranian nuclear weapon facilities and other targets. Stocks have barely flinched. Oil prices have drifted up, but at $75 per barrel, they're nowhere near crisis levels. The calm may be deceptive. 'The potential for major downside market surprise is more elevated than many would have it,' Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, wrote in a June 19 analysis. "Market volatility almost certainly will be larger and longer in duration than the usual geopolitical event that is contained quickly.' Trump started out talking tough about Iran's predicament, posting on social media on June 17 that he expected 'unconditional surrender' from the ruling mullahs. But Trump is clearly riven. His whole 'America first' governing theme is based on avoiding foreign entanglements, not embracing them. He calls himself a 'man of peace' and prides himself on negotiating savvy, not swordsmanship. The standoff has led to an increasingly familiar Trump tactic: delay. Trump now says he'll decide by July 4 or so whether to aid Israel in its quest to destroy Iran's nuclear program and prevent it from getting atomic weapons. During its first week of bombing, Israel was able to knock out much of Iran's air defense network, destroy many missile launchers, damage some nuclear facilities, and assassinate a number of Iranian military leaders. It's a humiliation for a nation with nine times the population of Israel and a fanatical regime that says the destruction of Israel is a foundational Israel apparently can't do, however, is destroy the Fordow nuclear complex, which is buried at least 250 feet beneath a mountain 60 miles south of Tehran. The only conventional weapon with a good shot of reaching that deep is the US GBU-57 'massive ordnance penetrator' bomb, which is so big that only American bomber jets can carry it. So Trump has to decide whether to unleash a wave of B-2 bombers over Iran with the mission to demolish the Fordow complex. Armchair generals might see this as a simple one-and-done job. It's anything but. Iran would likely retaliate, threatening some 40,000 American service members stationed in the Middle East and possibly seeking to close the Hormuz Strait, a way station for 20% of the world's petroleum. Trump needs a couple of weeks to think it over. But he's also seeking a way to get Iran to agree to limit its nuclear program through negotiations, which would fulfill his 'man of peace' declaration and avert a US war with Iran that could leave Americans dead and badly mar Trump's presidency. This explains some of Trump's manic-sounding social media posts regarding Iran. Bellicose Trump threatened to assassinate Iranian leader Ali Khameini, saying, 'We know exactly where the so-called 'supreme leader' is hiding. He is an easy target.' He also said 'everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,' as if American weapons were about to obliterate a megacity as densely populated as New York. Yet, Reasonable Trump has been urging Iran to accept a deal he's been working on since he took office in January. A Trump deal is only necessary because Trump scuttled the last deal with Iran, which former President Barack Obama finalized in 2015. Under that deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear weapons development in exchange for relief from punishing economic sanctions. Trump withdrew the United States from that deal, saying it was too soft on Iran. But he never got a better deal. The Obama deal was imperfect, to be sure. But all of Iran's recent progress on nuclear weapons came after Trump pulled out in 2018, and Iran may now be within weeks or months of building a nuke it could launch at Israel. Trump may now think Iran is in a can't-win position. Israel represents not just the threat of force, but actual force that degrades Iranian capabilities each day. That lets Trump play the good cop, whose supposed nuclear deal offers a way for Iran to escape Israeli pummeling. And with the massive ordnance penetrator in his back pocket, Trump can threaten even worse punishment than Israel is delivering. But Iran still might not cave. It could relocate much of its nuclear material and gird for the destruction of Fordow. Some analysts estimate Iran could reconstitute its nuclear program within a year or two, especially if it forswears any cooperation with weapons monitors or nonproliferation regimes. Iran could also try to snooker Trump into a sweetheart deal, hoping he'll grasp at anything he can claim as a victory. If nothing much changes by the end of Trump's two-week decision window, will dropping the big bomb be Trump's default position? Not necessarily. Trump could simply delay a decision by another two weeks or find some other formulation for basically doing nothing. Delay, in fact, is becoming Trump's go-to tactic. Trump has thrice delayed the date by which social media platform TikTok must sell itself to a non-Chinese buyer or go dark in the United States. Congress passed a law requiring that last year, but it did give the president the leeway of postponing enforcement, and Trump has taken advantage of it. The new deadline is Sept. 17. Trump also delayed the 'reciprocal' tariffs on dozens of nations reaching, in some cases, into the high double digits. Trump postponed those until July 9, saying that he expected to negotiate dozens of trade deals by then that would obviate the need for tariffs. As the deadline draws near, however, there have been hardly any announced deals. A buoyant stock markets suggest that investors think Trump will delay those tariffs yet again. But Trump also risks losing credibility with his counterparts if he always delays and never makes good on his threats. If Trump doesn't get the job done with Iran, the Islamic theocracy could hobble along as a wounded but dangerous combatant willing to take bigger risks. Trump will look like a bluffer who brags about a giant bomb he's afraid to use. He might discover that keeping America out of foreign wars doesn't make the nation better off, after all. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices.
