Latest news with #PaulSwinney
Telegraph
16-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
The neighbourhoods undergoing the most rapid gentrification (according to data)
Did you buy a property hoping that the area would gentrify? What happened? Let us know at money@ There are some tell-tale signs of creeping gentrification: a rash of estate agents, young people nursing flat whites, a yoga studio and loaves of sourdough in the corner shop. A thoroughly gentrified area may have a Gail's, a reformer pilates studio and perhaps a farmers' market on the weekend. But the process of a poor area becoming richer has other, more subtle, tells. To find the areas that have gentrified the fastest and most profoundly, we have looked at changes that show up in the data from our new interactive tool, linked below. We have broken down the signifiers of gentrification, including education level, income, house prices and local amenities, and seen how they have changed over the last decade. The most gentrified area of the last 10 years According to the data, the top gentrification location in England and Wales is Charlestown, to the north of central Salford. It has improved the most in each of our gentrification metrics over the last 10 years. House prices shot up from £73,000 to £212,000 over the past decade, earnings were up by nearly 50pc and the share of residents university-educated rose 15.7 percentage points. 'There were a lot of brownfield sites in Salford, so we're talking about the creation of places to live where before there were none,' said Paul Swinney, of Centre for Cities, a think tank. The arrival of MediaCityUK on the Salford Quays in the early 2010s transformed the area, creating more than 10,000 jobs – then came the new housing developments, shopping centres and transport links. When it comes to gentrification, London led the way in the 1980s and 1990s, Swinney added. 'In Manchester it's been much more recent. Over the last 20 years, the city centre has become a good place to do business, leading to thousands of new jobs. That in turn has changed it as a place to live, attracting amenities that weren't there before.' A rise in degree holders University has become a rite of passage in Britain. In the 2011 census, 27.2pc of the population had degree-level qualifications. Fast forward to 2021, and this had risen to 33.8pc. This intellectual levelling-up was widespread – 99.7pc of all neighbourhoods recorded an increase in people with degrees – but this was uneven. A sharp rise in degree-holders is one important characteristic of a gentrifying area. In the north west corner of Hackney, east London, a huge 20-year regeneration project overhauled an estate in Woodberry Down. It was one of the largest of its kind in Europe, according to the council, and has transformed the neighbourhood. Its residents have changed too. The proportion of working adults who have graduated university in Woodberry Down and Manor House leapt from just over one third (36.9pc) in 2011 to over two-thirds (67.8pc) – more than anywhere else in England and Wales. Simon Donovan first moved to the area 18 years ago. 'The place was really down on its luck back then,' he says. 'The regeneration brought lots of new properties you'd probably need a high level of education to afford, so there was a big influx of 'metro people'. But there hasn't been the kind of social cleansing you get elsewhere. Everyone had the right to remain, every council tenant was offered a space in newly built housing. ' He is now chief executive of the Manor House Development Trust, which runs two local community centres. 'This isn't just about money. There's been a real effort at bolstering the community around employment, education and the amenities in the area, with parks and the reservoir. It's become a really nice place to live.' Soaring house prices A pernicious side effect of gentrification is that many born and bred locals can't afford to stay because rents are pushed up as newcomers arrive. Although if you already owned in those locations, it's likely you've made a mint. The average house price, of course, has shot up across England and Wales – by about 50pc or an average of £100,000 between 2014 and 2024, from £183,000 to £279,000, according to HM Land Registry. In gentrifying areas, prices rises have leapt far further in percentage terms. Greater Manchester is home to eight out of the top 10 areas with the biggest rises in property prices. They almost tripled in Little Hulton South, a residential neighbourhood on the rural fringe of Salford, from £92,000 to £270,000 during the same period, up 193pc. 'This growth has been driven by ongoing investment in local infrastructure, the popularity of the schools, improved public transport and new-build developments that have brought fresh energy and property to the community,' according to Andrew Cardwell, of Cardwells estate agents. 'Traditionally, Little Hulton South offered relatively affordable housing stock, which meant it started from a lower price point than some of its neighbouring areas. 'Over the past decade, we've seen steady development in the property stock, which has naturally driven up average sale prices. At the same time, price growth in surrounding areas has created a ripple effect, further enhancing local values.' House prices in the south-east Manchester neighbourhood of Belle Vue and West Gorton increased by nearly 160pc during this period. The TV show, Shameless, was shot here and aired between 2004 and 2013. Newcomers bringing higher salaries The 2010s weren't especially kind to British employees – productivity stagnated, as did inflation-adjusted wages. However, just 1.7pc of all neighbourhoods in Britain saw average earnings fall. But in gentrifying areas, many places recorded soaring salaries in defiance of the overall economy, as higher earners moved in. The people of Central Swansea saw their annual income double between 2012 and 2020, from £15,500 to £31,500 (or £27,000 in real terms). St Thomas next door registered the second most impressive gains, the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show, up 89.1pc. In England, the strongest performance was put in by the Olympic Park area of Stratford, earmarked after the 2012 games for 32,000 new homes (86.3pc). Woodberry Down came in just behind on 86pc. Iced latte culture Newfound wealth leads to changing consumption patterns, in turn changing the face of the high street. Greasy spoons are chased out by Instagrammable cafes, known as speciality coffee bars or 'SCBs' in academic jargon. Charity shops replaced by branded outlets, and at least one lane of traffic is, rarely uncontroversially, earmarked for a cycle lane. While the revelatory arrival of a Gail's bakery remains mainly a London-centric phenomenon, the popping up of speciality food and drink stores – delicatessens, cheesemongers, vegetarian and health food shops and tea and coffee merchants – is an indicative trend nationally. This is most pronounced in Piccadilly & Ancoats, to the east of Manchester's city centre. The disused warehouses of old have been reborn as trendy food halls, taprooms and cocktail bars. We can measure this rise in local businesses using the Business Register and Employment Survey, which shows a 15-fold increase in the number of people employed in the sector locally between 2015 and 2023. In second place was Clerkenwell in central London, with an eight-fold rise, followed by Peckham Rye, in the south of the capital, with a 7.5-fold rise.
BBC News
08-05-2025
- Business
- BBC News
After-work drinks in decline outside London, peers told
Home working appears to have led to a bigger decline in after-work drinking in city centres outside London, a Lords committee has economist Paul Swinney told peers that pub spending data suggested that in the capital, post-work drinks have switched from Friday to a similar shift could not be seen in other large British cities, he added, where spending in bars was more likely to shift into the also added that a decline in city-centre spending had not been matched by a similar increase for high streets outside urban centres. Mr Swinney, director of the Centre for Cities think tank, was among various experts giving evidence to a special House of Lords committee set up earlier this year to examine the impact of remote and hybrid working in the month, the think tank published research on the pre and post-pandemic spending patterns of city-centre workers in pubs and bars around their places of work, by comparing credit and debit card data from 2019 and analysis showed that during that period, the share of weekly spending in pubs in central London on Fridays fell, whilst on Thursdays it rose, making it the most most popular night of the a similar pattern was not seen in the data for nine other large British cities, including Glasgow, Liverpool, Bristol, Newcastle and have shown Friday has become the most popular day for office workers to work from home, with attendance during the middle of the week returning to more similar levels to before the Covid pandemic. 'Shift to weekend' Explaining the spending data to peers on Thursday, Mr Swinney said that in London "the Friday night drink hasn't so much gone away, it's just shifted to a Thursday"."But when we looked at other large cities, that wasn't the case," he added."It appeared from the data that we have that the post-work drink has reduced in those other places."Actually the shift seems to go into the weekend, which seems to be workers coming in from a leisure perspective, rather than going out after work".The data analysed by the Centre for Cities showed that 32% of weekly pub spending in big cities outside London now takes place on a Saturday, suggesting workers are more likely to return on weekends to socialise than in the capital. Supermarket spending Elsewhere in the session, Mr Swinney said a decline in city-centre spending since the rise in remote and hybrid working had not been matched by an equivalent rise in spending on "local High Streets"."That might have happened a little bit, but certainly not to the extent that people were suggesting [during the pandemic]," he told the added that suburban supermarkets had "probably been the biggest winner" from the shift in spending patterns since said more flexible working patterns had led to some immediate benefits for workers, including reduced travel cost and more he added it could be "two, three, ten years down the line" before the long-term impact on economic productivity could be properly assessed.
Sunday Post
04-05-2025
- Business
- Sunday Post
Glasgow 'missing out' on oil and gas-sized financial boom
Get a weekly round-up of stories from The Sunday Post: Thank you for signing up to our Sunday Post newsletter. Something went wrong - please try again later. Sign Up Glasgow is missing out on an economic boom the size of Scotland's entire oil and gas industry and is one of Europe's most underperforming cities. Analysis by The Sunday Post reveals seven of the top 10 areas in Scotland for average income tax paid are in Edinburgh or the north east, with no Glasgow constituency making the grade. Experts believe it represents a shifting balance of economic power from the east to the west that could see some communities left poorer and older on average as young people move away to secure higher paying jobs. Despite being just 50 miles apart, the story of Glasgow and Edinburgh could hardly be more different. While Glasgow is struggling to recover from the effects of deindustrialisation decades ago, Edinburgh remains the fastest growing city in Scotland and one of the fastest growing parts of the UK – with growth outpacing even that of London. What did our research find? Our analysis of HMRC data released earlier this year shows Edinburgh South has the highest average income tax spend per person, at £12,900, while neighbouring Edinburgh West came in at £9,840. Aberdeen South and West Aberdeenshire add to a swathe of wealth running up the east coast that takes in a further two Edinburgh constituencies and – falling just outside the top 10 – Gordon and Buchan. Constituencies that are considered to be commuter areas for Glasgow, such as East Renfrewshire and Mid Dunbartonshire, do feature in some of the top spots. However, the first Glasgow constituency – Glasgow West – does not appear until number 12 in the rankings. Four of Glasgow's constituencies rank below the national average, while Glasgow North East has the lowest rate of income tax paid per person anywhere in Scotland, at £3,430. Constituency areas have wildly varying demographics and some can be skewed by certain factors, such as wealthy Edinburgh East and Musselburgh appearing further down the list than may be expected because of a large number of retired residents. But experts agree the gap between the east and west is growing. Paul Swinney is director of policy and research at the Centre for Cities thinktank. It analyses how and why economic growth and change takes place in UK cities. Swinney believes politicians have failed to focus on Glasgow as much as they should given the scale of its economic shortfall. © Supplied by Centre for Cities He said: 'Glasgow hugely underperforms relative to its European counterparts. 'It's a big place. It should be the most productive part of Scotland and one of the most productive areas anywhere in the UK – but it isn't. 'The calculations we've done suggest the size of Glasgow's underperformance – the gap between where Glasgow is now compared to where it should – is as large as the total size of the oil and gas industry in Scotland. 'So if Glasgow was performing as it should, it's the equivalent of adding another oil and gas industry to Scotland's economy.' Cities across the UK underperforming Glasgow is not alone in underperforming in relation to its population and demographics. Outside of London, it is a common trait in UK cities – although Edinburgh arguably overperforms. Research by the Centre for Cities found Manchester had the biggest performance gap anywhere in the UK, followed by Birmingham. But both of those areas are showing signs of better recovery than Glasgow. Swinney is calling for greater devolution of powers to cities and large towns, with local figureheads such as mayors or metro provosts given some degree of control over how funds are raised and spent. Many big cities in England now have mayors and greater fiscal controls but Swinney argues devolution in Scotland has been 'hoarded' at the Scottish Parliament. He said: 'It is one of the UK's largest economic problems, the consistent underperformance of big places that should be leading the national economy but actually trail behind it. 'The good news for large cities in England is that over the past 10 years, that has started to change. 'Mayors are in place now over those greater city areas and they have a degree of policy control – although that is still relatively low in comparison to their international counterparts. 'The worrying thing for Glasgow is that not only does it not have those fiscal devolution powers but it doesn't have the other things Manchester has been collecting over the past 10 years.' UK inequality is not the norm The wealth gap between the east and west coast manifests in various ways, including differences in income, wealth, and life expectancy. Graeme Roy, professor of economics at Glasgow University, said much of the wealth on the east coast is a result of large salaries being paid in the oil and gas industry in Aberdeen and financial services in Edinburgh. He said: 'There is always going to be variation between different parts of the country but what is quite unique about the UK and Scotland is the level of that variance. 'The UK is, on a regional basis, one of the most unequal nations in the OECD so there is lots of data that shows there is a huge concentration in London for who pays the most income tax and who is paid the most money. 'In many other countries, there are many more big cities that rival the capital. Whereas in the UK, you have London and then it drops off quite a bit.' © Supplied Scotland's total income tax take was £16.3 billion, compared to £248.4 billion across the UK during the same period. The £656 million collected in Edinburgh South, the highest paying area in Scotland, is dwarfed by the £4.2 billion paid by London's Kensington and Bayswater – an average of £62,300 per taxpayer. The figures highlight how the UK Treasury has become increasingly dependent on a handful of wealthy areas to fund public services. Such substantial regional inequality can force young people to move away, making it harder to fill key roles in more impoverished areas. Boundaries Scotland recently proposed revised constituency maps for the Scottish Parliament, reflecting population shifts and changes in electoral wards since 2010. Roy said: 'Most economists would say that regional inequality is not a good thing. 'While you want to support your really successful areas, you want to make sure that's not done at the expense of other places. 'That's a big critique of the UK, that we haven't done that – and Scotland is no different.'
Yahoo
09-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
London suffers deepest fall in wages of nearly all UK cities
London has suffered the deepest fall in real wages of nearly all major UK cities since 2008, fuelling concerns that the capital risks losing out on global talent. Wages in the city have nosedived since the financial crisis, with the average worker making 5.6pc less once accounting for inflation, according to the latest figures for 2023. The plunge is more pronounced than in almost every major city, despite London generating more than a fifth of the UK's economic growth. Only in Nottingham have workers experienced a steeper fall in earnings, with wages falling by 8.6pc between 2008 and 2023. Paul Swinney, of the Centre for Cities think tank, said the drop in real wages in London highlights the impact on high earners since the financial crash. Mr Swinney said: 'Those people who are doing higher paid jobs are the ones where the real wage decline has really hit, which tallies with the fact that it is the cutting edge of the economy that's not doing very well.' Meanwhile, rapid rises in the minimum wage have helped boost pay across cities with a greater share of lower-paid workers. Experts are still unsure why the capital's wages have struggled to grow but it points to the wider challenges gripping Britain's sluggish economy. Mr Swinney said: 'It is the million dollar question. The main reason is because productivity has flatlined in London. We have had a huge boom in jobs available in the capital but productivity has totally stopped growing.' The blow to pay packets is a symptom of industries like banking, life sciences and tech struggling with productivity, he said, which has impacted wage growth. The bleak trajectory for London's wages means it is likely losing out in the competition for top talent, Mr Swinney warned, including to the likes of the US. He said: 'What we have seen is that London hasn't done very well on the wage side. The cost of living has got worse from a housing perspective in particular over the last 15 or so years. So it really squeezes those benefits of being in London.' He added: 'The data seems to suggest that there'd been a real slackening off of people coming from skilled countries in particular, which then you would think will be having an impact on the performance of London's economy.' It suggests that top talent are to a greater extent looking to cities like New York or Paris rather than London. It comes amid complaints from the City over the widening gulf in salaries for FTSE 100 bosses compared with their US peers. David Schwimmer, the head of the London Stock Exchange Group, last year warned Britain's largest companies that they must pay chief executives more if they are to compete for talent. The capital's decline in wages should be a red flag for Rachel Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer if they are to grow the economy, Mr Swinney said. He said: 'The challenge for the Government is not only how do you get other parts of the country firing, but how do you get London firing again.' Wages in Newcastle and Liverpool were also lower at the end of 2023 than in 2008, taking hits of respectively 1.6pc and 1.1pc. In Leeds, they flatlined. By contrast, Glasgow experienced by far the strongest growth at 9.1pc. Workers in Sheffield also saw a 3pc boost, but remain the second-worst paid compared with other larger cities. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
09-03-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
London suffers deepest fall in wages of nearly all UK cities
London has suffered the deepest fall in real wages of nearly all major UK cities since 2008, fuelling concerns that the capital risks losing out on global talent. Wages in the city have nosedived since the financial crisis, with the average worker making 5.6pc less once accounting for inflation, according to the latest figures for 2023. The plunge is more pronounced than in almost every major city, despite London generating more than a fifth of the UK's economic growth. Only in Nottingham have workers experienced a steeper fall in earnings, with wages falling by 8.6pc between 2008 and 2023. Paul Swinney, of the Centre for Cities think tank, said the drop in real wages in London highlights the impact on high earners since the financial crash. Mr Swinney said: 'Those people who are doing higher paid jobs are the ones where the real wage decline has really hit, which tallies with the fact that it is the cutting edge of the economy that's not doing very well.' Meanwhile, rapid rises in the minimum wage have helped boost pay across cities with a greater share of lower-paid workers. Experts are still unsure why the capital's wages have struggled to grow but it points to the wider challenges gripping Britain's sluggish economy. Mr Swinney said: 'It is the million dollar question. The main reason is because productivity has flatlined in London. We have had a huge boom in jobs available in the capital but productivity has totally stopped growing.' The blow to pay packets is a symptom of industries like banking, life sciences and tech struggling with productivity, he said, which has impacted wage growth. The bleak trajectory for London's wages means it is likely losing out in the competition for top talent, Mr Swinney warned, including to the likes of the US. He said: 'What we have seen is that London hasn't done very well on the wage side. The cost of living has got worse from a housing perspective in particular over the last 15 or so years. So it really squeezes those benefits of being in London.' He added: 'The data seems to suggest that there'd been a real slackening off of people coming from skilled countries in particular, which then you would think will be having an impact on the performance of London's economy.' It suggests that top talent are to a greater extent looking to cities like New York or Paris rather than London. It comes amid complaints from the City over the widening gulf in salaries for FTSE 100 bosses compared with their US peers. David Schwimmer, the head of the London Stock Exchange Group, last year warned Britain's largest companies that they must pay chief executives more if they are to compete for talent. The capital's decline in wages should be a red flag for Rachel Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer if they are to grow the economy, Mr Swinney said. He said: 'The challenge for the Government is not only how do you get other parts of the country firing, but how do you get London firing again.' Wages in Newcastle and Liverpool were also lower at the end of 2023 than in 2008, taking hits of respectively 1.6pc and 1.1pc. In Leeds, they flatlined. By contrast, Glasgow experienced by far the strongest growth at 9.1pc. Workers in Sheffield also saw a 3pc boost, but remain the second-worst paid compared with other larger cities.
