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Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Nifty 50 jumps 8% YTD: Five key risks that could derail Indian stock market rally in H2CY25
Defying global turmoil and tariff-related uncertainties, the Indian stock market is set to wrap the first half of calendar year 2025 (H1CY25) with a healthy gain. The Nifty 50 has gained 8 per cent this year so far even as it hit a 52-week low of 21,743.65 on April 7. The index maintained its upward march despite US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, weak earnings, stretched valuations, foreign capital outflow, geopolitical turmoil and faltering global economic growth. The Nifty 50 is now just 640 points, or 2.4 per cent below its all-time high of 26,277.35 hit on September 27 last year. The Nifty 50 has been in the green since March this year. Stocks such as BEL, Bajaj Finance, SBI Life Insurance and Bajaj Finserv have surged 30-40 per cent this year so far. Heavyweights such as Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki and ICICI Bank have gained 10-25 per cent this year. However, shares of TCS, Trent, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Wipro and HCL Tech have declined 10-15 per cent this year. The resilience of the Indian stock market could be attributed to India's durable economic growth and healthy domestic demand. "Strong domestic demand, government-led capex, and steady sectoral growth, especially in banking and infrastructure, have supported investor confidence," Pawan Jain, the founder and chairman of Ashika Group, told Mint. The medium-term outlook of the Indian stock market remains positive. However, there are also risks that investors should not overlook. Although markets have largely priced in existing trade agreements between the US and its key trading partners, any unforeseen developments could rattle investor sentiment. Trump on Friday said that the White House was looking into an agreement that would give it the 'right to go in and trade' with India. "A key risk on the horizon is the looming 9th July'25 deadline when the US could begin imposing the steep 26 per cent reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods—unless an interim agreement is signed or the tariff pause is extended," said Divya Agrawal, Research Analyst & Advisory (Fundamental), Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist at Emkay Global, pointed out that "while it's widely believed that this 'second trade war' would play out differently than the China+1 dynamics, some scepticism remains over India's ability to scale meaningfully, given infra/other limitations." Experts say a spike in US inflation could aggravate foreign capital outflow and delay the US Fed rate cut. If foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) go on a prolonged selling spree, the domestic market could come under pressure. "The US inflation and consequently the Fed rate cut constraints are the only risks, in our opinion, to watch out for," said Vikas Gupta, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist at OmniScience Capital. Gupta, however, believes the chances of a spike in US inflation are low because of the US-China trade deal. Vinit Bolinjkar, the head of research of Ventura, underscored that the market has discounted two US Fed rate cuts by December. Fed officials are now openly debating whether only one or none is needed if tariffs keep core inflation sticky. "A hawkish surprise would push up global bond yields, drain emerging-market liquidity and revive FPI outflows from India," said Bolinjkar. Concerns over tensions in the Middle East have eased significantly. However, experts point out that geopolitical uncertainty and its potential to drive crude oil prices higher remain a key risk for the Indian market. "A renewed flare-up in any of several geopolitical flashpoints—ranging from a fraying Middle East cease-fire to fresh Russia–Ukraine escalations—could push Brent crude back toward the USD 90–95/bbl range," said Bolinjkar. Bolinjkar pointed out that historically, every USD 10 per barrel increase widens India's current account deficit by roughly 0.4 percentage points of GDP and raises consumer inflation by 30–40 basis points, eroding real incomes, pressuring the rupee, and squeezing corporate margins, just as market valuations appear stretched. "Any renewed escalation in the Middle East could trigger risk-off sentiment, impacting FII flows and driving crude oil prices higher. A sustained rise in oil prices above $90/barrel could widen India's current account deficit, fuel inflation, and compel the RBI to turn to a hawkish policy stance, reducing the likelihood of future rate cuts. This could negatively impact investor sentiments and put a pause on the ongoing market rally," said Agrawal of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Upcoming earnings will be perhaps the biggest trigger for the domestic market. Experts say if Q1FY26 earnings come out weaker-than-expected, the domestic market may see a deeper correction of about 10 per cent due to EPS growth-valuation mismatch. "The Nifty's forward PE sits a standard-deviation above its 10-year mean, while mid-caps trade at a 40 per cent premium to large-caps. At the same time, 72 per cent of index constituents have seen FY26 EPS cuts, and street-wide growth expectations have slipped to nearly 12 per cent. Any miss in the June-quarter numbers could trigger a derating," said Bolinjkar. Agrawal said that on the earnings front, FY26 is expected to follow a two-speed trajectory—with muted growth in H1 and a pick-up in H2. "Any delay or disappointment in the anticipated H2 recovery could hurt investor sentiments and derail current market momentum," said Agrawal. An even monsoon could increase food inflation risk and cap the prospects of further rate cuts by the RBI. "The IMD still projects an above-normal season overall, yet large deficits (-40% to -70%) are developing in parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha. Any sustained shortfall would revive cereal and pulse inflation, erode rural demand and cap the RBI's newfound easing room," said Bolinjkar. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
Mint
23-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Expert view: Double-digit growth in CY25 within reach; global uncertainties key risks, says Pawan Jain of Ashika Group
Expert view on markets: Pawan Jain, the founder and chairman of Ashika Group, believes the long-term India story remains strong and expects continued momentum in sectors aligned with structural growth themes. In an interview with Mint, Jain shared his views on the Indian stock market, key challenges and equity investment strategy. Here are edited excerpts of the interview: The Indian stock market performed well in the first half of CY25, showing resilience amid global uncertainty. Strong domestic demand, government-led capex, and steady sectoral growth, especially in banking and infrastructure, have supported investor confidence. Both domestic and foreign investors remain optimistic about India's long-term potential. While some valuations are elevated, the overall outlook remains positive heading into the second half of the year. There is cautious optimism for the second half of CY25. With policy continuity, strong domestic fundamentals, and improving global sentiment, the environment remains supportive for equities. If earnings growth stays on track and global headwinds remain contained, a double-digit return for the full year is certainly within reach. That said, markets may see intermittent volatility, and investors should remain disciplined. The long-term India story remains strong, and we expect continued momentum in sectors aligned with structural growth themes. While the outlook is strong, a few challenges remain. Global uncertainties and interest rate movements can impact capital flows. Domestically, inflation, especially in food and energy, needs close monitoring. Valuations in certain sectors are stretched, and the timely execution of policy measures is essential. That said, India's fundamentals remain solid, and with prudent management, we can effectively navigate these risks. A balanced approach works best in the current environment. Momentum has delivered in recent months, driven by strong domestic flows and sectoral tailwinds. However, with valuations rising, it is equally important to keep an eye on value. Investors should focus on fundamentally strong businesses with earnings visibility, while remaining selective in high-growth pockets. Staying diversified and disciplined will be key to navigating the rest of the year effectively. The strong retail participation is driven by greater financial awareness, digital access to markets, and the rise of systematic investing through mutual funds and SIPs. Younger investors are entering early, with a long-term mindset, which is a positive shift. This growing retail base adds depth and stability to the market. It also makes the market more resilient to global shocks, as domestic flows increasingly offset external volatility. Over time, this broad-based participation will help mature our capital markets further. India's wealth management industry is indeed at a pivotal stage. Rising affluence, greater financial literacy, and digital access are bringing more first-time investors into formal financial channels. This presents a significant opportunity to expand services beyond traditional HNIs to a broader, emerging affluent segment. The challenge is to build trust, deliver personalised advice at scale, and ensure regulatory compliance in a rapidly evolving landscape. Technology will play a critical role in bridging this gap, but so will investor education and transparent practices. Done right, wealth management in India has the potential to become a key driver of long-term financial inclusion and capital formation. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
Time of India
21-06-2025
- Time of India
2 Nepalese among 4 held for cyber fraud
1 2 Jaipur: Four men, including two Nepalese nationals and two Delhi residents, were arrested from a city hotel for their involvement in a cyber fraud operation with links to Chinese cybercriminals. The gang is believed to have facilitated fraudulent transactions worth Rs 24.4 crore, with complaints registered on the national cybercrime reporting portal from several states, including Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana. Police identified the accused as Lal Dorge Tamang and Suaj Tamang from Nepal, and Pawan Jain and Abbu Shahma from Delhi. The arrests were made following an FIR lodged earlier in 2025. Twelve mobile phones, one laptop, and three cheque books were recovered from the suspects during the operation. According to DCP (Crime) Kundan Kanwaria, the racket was led by Lal Dorge Tamang, a resident of Sindhupalchowk in Nepal. He created a well-organised network that supported Chinese cybercriminals by supplying them with mule bank accounts. These accounts were used to route illicit funds, and the accused managed them through social media platforms and encrypted messaging apps like Telegram. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Giao dịch vàng CFDs với mức chênh lệch giá thấp nhất IC Markets Đăng ký Undo The gang's modus operandi involved renting bank accounts from individuals in exchange for a commission. The account holders were instructed to install a suspicious APK file on their phones. Once installed, the app gave Chinese handlers remote access to the devices, allowing them to control the bank accounts and conduct transactions from afar. The commissions were paid in USDT, a cryptocurrency commonly used in illegal online operations. The suspects earned between 2 to 5 percent per transaction, with Lal Dorge receiving 4 to 5 percent from the Chinese operators. He, in turn, passed on 2 to 2.5 percent to the mule account holders. Police received a tip-off about suspicious individuals staying at Hotel Sanjay Palace near Polo Victory in Jaipur. Upon investigation, they found that these individuals were involved in procuring and renting out bank accounts to cybercriminal groups based in China. The investigation also revealed that Pawan Jain, a resident of Rohini North in Delhi, was in regular contact with a woman named Sushma, believed to be the mastermind behind the gang. Sushma, currently based in Dubai, served as the key link between the Chinese groups and their Indian and Nepalese associates.
Hindustan Times
24-04-2025
- Hindustan Times
Panchkula: 25 booked for siphoning gas from LPG cylinders before delivery
A joint raid conducted by the CM flying squad led to the uncovering of a large-scale gas pilfering operation on Tuesday. As many as 25 individuals from two gas agencies in Sector 3 have been booked. Police seized eight metal pipes, believed to be the instruments used for siphoning gas, from 14 employees of Panchkula Gas Service (Indane Gas) and Roop Gas Agency (HP Gas) apprehended on the spot. The police said all 14 who were arrested were released on bail owing to the offence's nature. However, nine other accused, including drivers and helpers, managed to flee. Anirudh Mittal, the owner of Panchkula Gas Service, and Pawan Jain, the distributor of Roop Gas Agency, have also been booked but are yet to be arrested. The seized evidence and the involvement of the gas agency owners suggest a well-entrenched operation designed to defraud consumers for earning illegal profit. The modus operandi involved employees of both gas agencies illicitly extracting gas from filled cylinders before delivering them to customers. According to the FIR, the perpetrators used flute-like metal pipes to siphon off significant quantities of gas, ranging from one to two kg per cylinder. This stolen gas was then transferred into empty cylinders, resulting in the supply of underweight cylinders to unsuspecting customers. Acting on this intelligence, a joint raid was conducted by the flying squad team, Sector 5 police, officials from the weights and measures department, and the food and supplies department. During the operation, the raiding team witnessed drivers and helpers of both gas agencies actively engaged in the illegal transfer of gas between cylinders in the loaded delivery vehicles. Upon inspection and weighing the gas cylinders loaded in a total of 13 vehicles (five belonging to Panchkula Gas Service and eight to Roop Gas Agency), significant discrepancies were discovered. Out of the 558 cylinders checked, 238 were found to contain less than the prescribed quantity of gas, with the deficit ranging from a mere 20 gm to a substantial 10.350 kg. Additionally, 47 empty cylinders were found loaded in the vehicles. The Sector 5 police registered a case against all 25 accused on Tuesday under Sections 61 (criminal conspiracy) and 318(4) (cheating) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS) and Sections 7 and 10 of the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. Be aware The LPG cylinder delivery vehicle should be carrying a weighing scale for checking the weight of the cylinder. A full 14.2 kg LPG cylinder has a gross weight of approximately 29.5 kg. Before taking the delivery of the domestic gas cylinder, check if the seal is intact. Always get your refill cylinder weighed in your presence before its delivery.
