Latest news with #PhilipKlotzbach
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Barbara becomes first hurricane of East Pacific season. Cosme won't be far behind
While all remains quiet in the tropical Atlantic basin, that's not the case in the eastern Pacific. Barbara strengthened as expected into the first hurricane of the eastern Pacific June 9, according to the 11 a.m. ET advisory. Tropical Storm Cosme is forecast to become the season's second hurricane later today. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location A third system may become a tropical depression by the end of the weekend or over the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. The eastern Pacific is already on its third named storm of the season, while nothing has yet developed in the Atlantic, where the first named storm will be Andrea. Tropical Storm Barbara strengthened into a hurricane by the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Barbara is the first hurricane-strength tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere 2025 season. It was the latest first Northern Hemisphere hurricane since 1993, according to Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Tropical Storm Cosme is expected to become a hurricane later today, June 9. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Location: 155 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph Movement: northwest at 10 mph At 11 a.m. ET June 9, the center of Hurricane Barbara was located 155 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible today, but a weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. AccuWeather forecasters said Barbara will bring flooding rainfall and coastal impacts to Mexico. Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions Location: 620 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph Movement: west-northwest at 6 mph At 11 a.m. ET, the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located 620 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north with a decease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion Tuesday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Cosme is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30. That's an extra two weeks beyond the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The eastern Pacific basin extends from Mexico and Central America westward to 140°W, which is about midway between North America and Hawaii. NOAA's prediction for the eastern Pacific hurricane season outlook was for a below-normal season, 50% chance. There is a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 20% chance of an above-normal season. Predictions for 2025 season: Named storms: 12-18 Hurricanes: 5-10 Major hurricanes: 2-5 Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average eastern Pacific hurricane season has 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The first named storm typically forms in early to mid-June, the first hurricane tends to form in late June, and the first major hurricane forms in mid-July. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily, primarily focusing on the Atlantic basin. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Barbara strengthens into hurricane west of Mexico
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Barbara becomes first storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific season
Two tropical storms formed off the coast of Mexico this weekend, with Barbara strengthening and becoming the season's first hurricane on Monday. Forecasters are tracking both Hurricane Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme as they swirl west of Mexico. Periods of heavy rain could lead to flooding and mudslides around some major tourist destinations. DON'T MISS: Hurricane season is in full swing across the eastern Pacific, and a favourable environment off the western coast of Mexico allowed two tropical storms to form this weekend. Hurricane Barbara strengthened southwest of Mexico on Monday morning, marking the first hurricane of the 2025 season. #Barbara is now a #hurricane - the first hurricane-strength tropical cyclone of the 2025 Northern Hemisphere season. Barbara is the latest 1st Northern Hemisphere hurricane since 1993. — Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 9, 2025 According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), Barbara's maximum sustained winds reached 120 km/h, meeting the threshold for hurricane classification. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the NHC warns. "Please consult products from your local weather office." The NHC calls for widespread rainfall totals of 25-50 mm throughout the region, with totals of 50-100 mm possible toward Acapulco. Locally higher totals are possible, bringing along the risk for flash flooding and mudslides. While the system is close enough to spread rain over land, the centre of the storm should remain safely out to sea. The NHC expects Barbara to strengthen slightly on Monday before gradually weakening through the middle of the week. Cosme formed to Barbara's west on Sunday afternoon. Forecasters predict that the small system could reach hurricane strength on Monday before encountering cooler waters and drier air by the middle of the week, forcing the system to quickly weaken and fall apart. Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific basin runs through the end of November. NOAA's seasonal outlook called for 12-18 named storms, with 5-10 of those systems growing into hurricanes, and 2-5 of those hurricanes achieving Category 3 status or stronger. This is close to the eastern Pacific's seasonal average of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. MUST SEE: This season's activity is influenced by the lack of El Niño and La Niña, as well as a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a pattern that can lead to cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures. Cooler waters can suppress tropical cyclone development. Most storms in the eastern Pacific head out to sea and don't affect land. Those that do affect land frequently hit the mountainous communities of western Mexico, often triggering widespread flooding and mudslides. Click here to view the video
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA just released its 2025 hurricane forecast. Here's what to know.
As Tampa Bay continues to lick its wounds from last year's devastating hurricane season, storm experts Thursday said to gear up for what could be another active season. Hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they are expecting an above normal Atlantic hurricane season. The agency said it is anticipating up 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to five could ramp up into a major hurricane, a Category 3 storm or higher. Forecasters expect a 60% chance of an above normal season, a 30% chance of a near normal season and just a 10% chance of below normal season. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. A typical hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The forecast, while still above normal, is not as fierce as last year's outlook, when the agency released its most aggressive preseason forecast in its history, which was driven by extreme ocean heat and a budding La Niña. 'Every thing is in place for an above average season,' said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather service. 'What do we always say? It only takes one.' The 2025 federal outlook aligns with other early season forecasts released last month. Colorado State University, a school renowned for its hurricane research, said in April it expects 'above-normal' tropical activity this year. The university's early-season prediction stemmed from warm sea-surface temperatures, and the potential for conditions that kindle tropical activity. 'Forecasting the future is hard, whether you're forecasting weather, whether you're forecasting sporting events, political races, all that stuff,' Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at the university, said at the time. 'But we also find that you can see a lot by looking, basically by going back into the past,' Klotzbach said. 'There are clues in the atmosphere and ocean system that can tip us off as to whether the current hurricane season is going to have above or below normal activity.' • • • For Tampa Bay, Helene was the worst storm in a century More hurricanes are slamming the Gulf Coast. Is this the new normal? Want to know what areas are flooding in Tampa Bay? Here's where to look. Checklists for building all kinds of storm kits.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical wave detected in Atlantic — weeks before hurricane season really begins
The first tropical wave of the season was just identified in the Atlantic Ocean — weeks before the start of this year's hurricane season. Currently moving just west of Africa, large-scale low-pressure systems similar to this may lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. 'The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, to the south of 15N, moving west at around 11 mph. Nearby convection is noted in the monsoon trough and Intertropical Convergence Zone section,' forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said in their Tuesday update. Convection is a critical part of storm formation that sends warm air and moisture into the atmosphere. This one, however, is not expected to threaten the U.S. or develop any further. That's due to a dry and dusty air mass in its path, WFTV 9 said. Other areas of the Atlantic closer to the U.S. are quiet just 11 days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. In fact, it may even be eerily quiet, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he wrote in a post on the social media platform X. 'The latest first named storm in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950 was in 1973. Ava formed in the eastern North Pacific on June 2 that year,' he noted. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1, according to the Pensacola News Journal. Of those, 11 formed in May. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from the beginning of June through November 30. This season may be less active than last year, which saw the destructive Hurricane Helene and Milton. June's Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic. The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast for the season on Thursday. Forecasters at AccuWeather say the first storm could happen before the official start of the season. "We're starting to get into that season where we need to kind of keep an eye out [in the Caribbean]," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical wave detected in Atlantic — weeks before hurricane season really begins
The first tropical wave of the season was just identified in the Atlantic Ocean — weeks before the start of this year's hurricane season. Currently moving just west of Africa, large-scale low-pressure systems similar to this may lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. 'The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, to the south of 15N, moving west at around 11 mph. Nearby convection is noted in the monsoon trough and Intertropical Convergence Zone section,' forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said in their Tuesday update. Convection is a critical part of storm formation that sends warm air and moisture into the atmosphere. This one, however, is not expected to threaten the U.S. or develop any further. That's due to a dry and dusty air mass in its path, WFTV 9 said. Other areas of the Atlantic closer to the U.S. are quiet just 11 days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. In fact, it may even be eerily quiet, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he wrote in a post on the social media platform X. 'The latest first named storm in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950 was in 1973. Ava formed in the eastern North Pacific on June 2 that year,' he noted. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1, according to the Pensacola News Journal. Of those, 11 formed in May. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from the beginning of June through November 30. This season may be less active than last year, which saw the destructive Hurricane Helene and Milton. June's Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic. The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast for the season on Thursday. Forecasters at AccuWeather say the first storm could happen before the official start of the season. "We're starting to get into that season where we need to kind of keep an eye out [in the Caribbean]," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
