5 days ago
The latest Trump tariffs on SA smell of a bigger BRICS battle
Stop me if you've heard this before, but Trump just sent out letters to global leaders talking about the incoming reciprocal tariffs. This time the deadline is 1 August. Cue the market panic.
A late-night WhatsApp response from a sales director in the local wine industry read simply: ' he's a [ expletive ] idiot ' – after being asked for comment on Donald Trump's latest trade letter to South Africa (SA) published on Truth Social.
That single sentence might just capture the collective sigh echoing across boardrooms, vineyards and orchards from Constantia to Killarney.
On Monday, 7 July, President Donald Trump signed an order imposing a 30% tariff on all South African exports to the US, effective from 1 August. It's a hammer blow – not just to South African oranges, macadamias and wine, but against an entire trade philosophy.
Reciprocity or retribution?
This is a vintage Trump play: loud, unilateral and unashamedly nationalist. The US President frames it as a patriotic correction of 'decades of bad trade deals', claiming that persistent trade deficits are not just bad economics, but existential threats to US sovereignty.
Answering press questions, Trump returned to his well of confusion and obfuscation: 'They're going to be tariffs. Tariffs are going to be the tariffs… But they go into effect on August 1st.'
His spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, offered her own, unique take during a Monday press conference, describing the President's approach as if he were plotting a new season of The Apprentice: 'He's looking at every country on the planet, seeing where they are ripping off the American people… and he's correcting that.'
BRICS bites back
Meanwhile, the newly expanded BRICS bloc (now including Indonesia and a growing cohort of partners) has fired back in diplomatic parlance.
In their Rio de Janeiro declaration, they condemned 'unilateral coercive measures' as distortive and inconsistent with WTO rules, reaffirming a vision of a multilateral, fairer global trade order.
Trump's reaction? You guessed it: even more tariffs. Threatening an additional 10% penalty on countries 'aligning with BRICS anti-American policies' and adding fuel to an already roaring geopolitical braai fire.
Pork disease and power plays
Our micro-sectors have been fighting this battle for a long time. The South African pork industry, for example, is resisting US demands to drop biosecurity protocols against Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), a disease that SA has, so far, kept at bay.
Dr Peter Evans from the South African Pork Producers' Organisation warns that relaxing these standards could be catastrophic: 'We're just trying to keep our industry disease-free. Every time Agoa comes around, we have the same fight.'
Evans is referring to the 2015 standoff over pork imports, when US officials insisted that SA's PRRS-driven pork restrictions amounted to protectionism, while Pretoria's veterinary authorities stood firm that safeguarding the nation's disease-free status was non-negotiable.
That controversy escalated and became entangled with other agricultural disputes – most notably the long-standing tensions over US poultry and beef exports – with SA's Agoa eligibility hanging in the balance until a last-minute compromise paved the way for continued market access.
Local jobs in firing line
The economic tremors of the latest earthquake are already being felt. Sonja Boshoff, chair of Parliament's select committee on economic development and trade, was direct in a media statement shared with Daily Maverick: 'These industries are not abstract economic indicators; they are lifelines for tens of thousands of workers.'
As previously reported, the citrus industry alone supports more than 35,000 jobs and contributes more than R38-billion to the economy annually.
Boshoff warned that sudden tariff hikes sabotage decades of careful trade diplomacy, undermine confidence in agreements like Agoa, and threaten entire rural economies.
'No country can plan its industrial or export strategy under a cloud of sudden and unilateral tariff hikes.'
In political corridors, there's talk of offering strategic Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) procurement to the US as a bargaining chip. Boshoff, however, insists on swift, transparent negotiations. 'We cannot afford diplomatic dithering,' she said.
What this means for you
Jobs on the line: The citrus, steel and agricultural sectors face immediate existential risks. Exporters may pass costs onto local prices, hurting consumers too.
A shrinking US doorway: Agoa's benefits are now largely neutralised, and producers relying on the US market must urgently diversify.
AfCFTA as a safety valve: Local businesses can start exploring new African markets, but this demands investment, strategy and robust digital defences against fraud.
Policy crossroads: Government support, logistics aid and fast-tracked trade deals with the EU and Asia will be vital to plug revenue holes.
The continental plan B
While the US door starts to close, some industry players are eyeing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a lifeline. Gregory Saffy of FedEx calls it 'one of the most important levers for driving inclusive growth and unlocking the continent's full trade potential'.
South African exports under AfCFTA have already reached around R820-million since January 2024, including mining equipment, plastics, apparel and food products. Yet for small and medium businesses, the reality is more nuanced.
Saffy points out that eliminating tariffs doesn't magically create customers: 'A free trade agreement doesn't create demand for a business's products.'
SMEs need to be export-ready, secure payment systems, and understand new markets; no small feat in a continent where paperwork and payment fraud are still major obstacles.
He advocates digitising customs systems, building transparent tariff schedules, and boosting SME readiness through targeted training and support.
The ultimate prize? A less US-dependent, more intra-African trade future that could blunt the force of global protectionism.
SA is caught between an increasingly hostile US and a collaborative but still-evolving BRICS vision. As Trump pushes his 'America first' agenda to new extremes, local producers are being forced to confront a reality where no market is guaranteed. DM
