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Time of India
04-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Equities still worth a bet, but tread lightly: Richard Harris
"It is a lot of cash to find for American buyers because, of course, they are the ones who are going to be paying at the end of the day. So, you have to think that that is going to have a detrimental effect on trade and a detrimental effect on growth that will counteract all the positive features that the big beautiful bill was intended to have," says Richard Harris , Port Shelter Investment . Is it the magic of liquidity which is blinding everybody? Richard Harris: Well, I am not sure it is blinding everybody, but it is definitely having a big impact on what is happening. Clearly, the big beautiful bill or ugly bill, as you might call it, is going to have quite a big impact. That is going to put trillions of dollars into the economy. And as we know, if you put that sort of money into the economy, it ends up in asset prices. So, I think that equities are taking some strength from that. But one of the biggest reasons why we have seen prices move up recently is because Trump comes in with a scary figure or scary announcement such as the 2nd of April tariff increases. And what have we seen since then are roll backs from them. So, the market has seen each little roll back as a victory, as good news. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like These Are The Most Beautiful Women In The World Undo So, bit by bit, it is priced things back up again and that is what we are seeing at the moment that we are actually seeing small pieces of good news. But if you look at the good news, you can sort of say, well, tariffs in China were going to be 145%. Now, they are going to be 50%, maybe they will be lower. Vietnam 48% or something, maybe they will be 20%, that all seems to the market to be good news. But in reality, that 20% is still very high. It is a lot of cash to find for American buyers because, of course, they are the ones who are going to be paying at the end of the day. So, you have to think that that is going to have a detrimental effect on trade and a detrimental effect on growth that will counteract all the positive features that the big beautiful bill was intended to have. So, just wondering, now that 9th July approaches closer and closer, what can we hear on the tariff front? Richard Harris: Well, the extraordinary thing if you do a survey of how much people have been searching for the word tariff, it has gone down pretty well solidly from April 2nd. And what we have had over the last couple of weeks, we have had a lot of news about Iran, a lot of news about global politics, what is going to happen to oil we have been talking about. Most recently, we have been talking in the last week about what has happened to the big beautiful bill. Well, that was strong armed through. Now, the markets are going to start focusing on tariffs. But they have really not paid much attention to it since April the 2nd, thinking that Trump is going to chicken out. Well, we will have to see if that happens. But on those countries that have signed deals with the US already, tariffs are an awful lot higher than they were at the beginning of the year. So, I think that that is really the factor that we should be looking at not the fact that we have had good news coming because some of these very high tariff levels have been reduced. Live Events So, what should one do, I mean that is the most important question whatever we are discussing is well known? It is a strategy what you adopt at an all-time high which essentially will differentiate the portfolio return. If you sell now, well you miss on the uptick. If you do not sell now, well, you regret because this market already is looking bloated. Richard Harris: Well, what is basically happening is that there is a big delay in numbers. The big factor that has confounded economists, of course, is how is it that we have seen the economy stay fairly strong despite all these potential features of bad news coming around. Well, a lot of the bad news has not hit yet. Higher tariffs have not necessarily hit. Issues with the deficit have not necessarily hit. But generally, the bad news has not really hit yet, that is further down the line and it is going to be the same with the big beautiful bill. The tax cuts are going to happen soon. The benefit cuts are going to happen later and over time. So, initially, the markets will still stay pretty buoyant because they would not have an awful lot of reason to sell off. So, if you have to, let us say, punch in one trade, only one trade, you allowed only one for rest of the year, what will that trade be? Richard Harris: I think equities, maybe less weighted, less highly weighted than they have been previously, but equities will still continue because bull markets die hard.
Economic Times
13-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold is ‘flavour of the month', says Richard Harris amid crisis hedging
Agencies So, they will come off, but in the very short term they may be seen as a gold substitute, but gold to my mind seems to be the key factor there that people will be looking at. "We have got the closing deadline of July the 9th for the tariffs to come back in line. So, we have got a lot of things coming up here and we are in danger of maybe some event, maybe it is this Israeli event, I do not think so, but maybe it is this event where the markets really say okay, that is enough. We have had enough. Markets," says Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment. Between Iran and Israel right now. US for the moment has opted to stay out of this war. But what are you making of the development between Iran and Israel? How bad could it get for global markets also in terms of crude? Richard Harris: Well, first of all, the Israeli thing, the Israelis have been for this for quite a long time. It is well known that Trump has tried to persuade them not to. They have clearly gone against his advice and the Americans now are obviously up to prevent any attacks against US areas, but they have made it quite clear that they have not really been involved. So, Iran then if they are looking at retaliation, they are really looking at Israel. Now, this may come explicitly in terms of the kind of drone strikes that they tried to do earlier, but Israel's defences are quite strong there or implicitly, in terms of maybe terrorist attacks in other places, but it clearly does not help the situation. It adds to global uncertainty. It adds to the uncertainty in the market and actually Trump is probably feeling a little bit miffed that perhaps the Israelis have not quite followed his advice. What do you think could be the impact on markets other than crude because what you are seeing today, of course, is a knee-jerk reaction. Most global markets were already scaling at an all-time peak, perhaps looking for a reason to profit take, but do you sense that we could spiral down further? Richard Harris: Yes, I mean we have seen a very good recovery in markets generally. I mean, Europe because it is a diversifier to the US, the US because actually we have had the Trump taco trade which is where there have been small pieces of good news that has led a recovery in US share prices. We are now at a stage where markets pretty well are back to where Trump started, that is actually an important sign. But we are also much more fragile. Unemployment is looking less good than it was. Growth is looking less good than it was. We have got the closing deadline of July the 9th for the tariffs to come back in line. So, we have got a lot of things coming up here and we are in danger of maybe some event, maybe it is this Israeli event, I do not think so, but maybe it is this event where the markets really say okay, that is enough. We have had enough. Markets are very fragile and it is just waiting for that unknown unknown event in order to unwind. What happens to money flow in a case like this? I mean, this is not the first time that we have had two countries battle it out. We have seen that since Russia-Ukraine, then it was Israel and Gaza and now Iran again. We have seen that here in India as well with our own neighbour. But does it really impact money flows at all or do you think that is clearly restricted to tariffs and what comes of it? Richard Harris: We have seen a lot of these issues over the last few years and markets react. It takes a day or so to react and then they come back. At the moment, we do not really know what is happening. But the markets are quite immune if you like to a number of these factors. They survived two major wars. They survived all sorts of issues with Trump and tariffs and still they are trading at a reasonably high level. Bull markets die hard. I would expect that this will end up being another skirmish that will disappear in next two to three weeks. Maybe wrong, but I think the probabilities are like that. I think one escalation could be if the Iranians do decide to see if they can choke off oil deliveries out of the Arabian Gulf, then the Americans will step in because it is important for the world and the Americans do see it as part of their holy mission to keep that gulf open. So, I think that if you are looking at oil prices, they are likely to be quite volatile because you have got these different factors involved. But at the end of the day, the US will look to keep it open, whether that will then cause a secondary dispute between the US and in Iran, well, that is probably going to happen anyway, but I think that will burn at a lower level. Is the most obvious trade right now is maybe go ahead and buy gold because at the morning today gold is already at near to its all-time high, holding on to the gains of over 1.5%. Richard Harris: Well, gold is flavour of the month, is not it, and the dollar it normally takes that view, but because we have had the whole issue with Trump and weakness in the dollar, I think it is being less successful. Of course, the other thing for those who actually believe it is Bitcoin, which the cryptos will probably do quite well in this environment. Crypto is actually quite focused on the equity market. So, they will come off, but in the very short term they may be seen as a gold substitute, but gold to my mind seems to be the key factor there that people will be looking at.
Time of India
13-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold is ‘flavour of the month', says Richard Harris amid crisis hedging
"We have got the closing deadline of July the 9th for the tariffs to come back in line. So, we have got a lot of things coming up here and we are in danger of maybe some event, maybe it is this Israeli event, I do not think so, but maybe it is this event where the markets really say okay, that is enough. We have had enough. Markets," says Richard Harris , Port Shelter Investment. Between Iran and Israel right now. US for the moment has opted to stay out of this war. But what are you making of the development between Iran and Israel? How bad could it get for global markets also in terms of crude? Richard Harris: Well, first of all, the Israeli thing, the Israelis have been for this for quite a long time. It is well known that Trump has tried to persuade them not to. They have clearly gone against his advice and the Americans now are obviously up to prevent any attacks against US areas, but they have made it quite clear that they have not really been involved. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Dhoni's Exclusive Home Interior Choice? HomeLane Get Quote Undo So, Iran then if they are looking at retaliation, they are really looking at Israel. Now, this may come explicitly in terms of the kind of drone strikes that they tried to do earlier, but Israel's defences are quite strong there or implicitly, in terms of maybe terrorist attacks in other places, but it clearly does not help the situation. It adds to global uncertainty. It adds to the uncertainty in the market and actually Trump is probably feeling a little bit miffed that perhaps the Israelis have not quite followed his advice. What do you think could be the impact on markets other than crude because what you are seeing today, of course, is a knee-jerk reaction. Most global markets were already scaling at an all-time peak, perhaps looking for a reason to profit take, but do you sense that we could spiral down further? Richard Harris: Yes, I mean we have seen a very good recovery in markets generally. I mean, Europe because it is a diversifier to the US, the US because actually we have had the Trump taco trade which is where there have been small pieces of good news that has led a recovery in US share prices. We are now at a stage where markets pretty well are back to where Trump started, that is actually an important sign. But we are also much more fragile. Unemployment is looking less good than it was. Growth is looking less good than it was. We have got the closing deadline of July the 9th for the tariffs to come back in line. So, we have got a lot of things coming up here and we are in danger of maybe some event, maybe it is this Israeli event, I do not think so, but maybe it is this event where the markets really say okay, that is enough. We have had enough. Markets are very fragile and it is just waiting for that unknown unknown event in order to unwind. Live Events What happens to money flow in a case like this? I mean, this is not the first time that we have had two countries battle it out. We have seen that since Russia-Ukraine, then it was Israel and Gaza and now Iran again. We have seen that here in India as well with our own neighbour. But does it really impact money flows at all or do you think that is clearly restricted to tariffs and what comes of it? Richard Harris: We have seen a lot of these issues over the last few years and markets react. It takes a day or so to react and then they come back. At the moment, we do not really know what is happening. But the markets are quite immune if you like to a number of these factors. They survived two major wars. They survived all sorts of issues with Trump and tariffs and still they are trading at a reasonably high level. Bull markets die hard. I would expect that this will end up being another skirmish that will disappear in next two to three weeks. Maybe wrong, but I think the probabilities are like that. I think one escalation could be if the Iranians do decide to see if they can choke off oil deliveries out of the Arabian Gulf, then the Americans will step in because it is important for the world and the Americans do see it as part of their holy mission to keep that gulf open. So, I think that if you are looking at oil prices, they are likely to be quite volatile because you have got these different factors involved. But at the end of the day, the US will look to keep it open, whether that will then cause a secondary dispute between the US and in Iran, well, that is probably going to happen anyway, but I think that will burn at a lower level. Is the most obvious trade right now is maybe go ahead and buy gold because at the morning today gold is already at near to its all-time high, holding on to the gains of over 1.5%. Richard Harris: Well, gold is flavour of the month, is not it, and the dollar it normally takes that view, but because we have had the whole issue with Trump and weakness in the dollar, I think it is being less successful. Of course, the other thing for those who actually believe it is Bitcoin, which the cryptos will probably do quite well in this environment. Crypto is actually quite focused on the equity market. So, they will come off, but in the very short term they may be seen as a gold substitute, but gold to my mind seems to be the key factor there that people will be looking at.
