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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Onion, potato prices went up over 80% in 2024 due to climate change: Study
Food prices in India saw a sharp rise in 2024 due to an unusually severe heatwave, with onion and potato prices jumping by more than 80 per cent in the second quarter of the year, according to a new study. The study, led by Maximilian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and involving researchers from the European Central Bank, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the UK's Food Foundation, investigated 16 extreme weather-driven food price shocks across 18 countries between 2022 and 2024. It found that many of these events exceeded all historical precedents before 2020 and were strongly influenced by global warming. "In India, the price of onions and potatoes jumped by over 80 per cent in the second quarter of 2024 after a heatwave in May, a 'largely unique event' that was made at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer by climate change," the researchers said. The year 2024 was the hottest on record and the first with a global average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In India, extreme heat in May severely affected crop yields and supply chains, contributing to high inflation in essential vegetables. The study warned that such food price shocks could worsen health outcomes, including malnutrition and chronic diseases and increase economic inequality. "Rising food prices have direct implications for food security, particularly for low-income households... When the price of food shoots up, low-income families often have to resort to less nutritious, cheaper foods. Diets like this have been linked to a range of health conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart disease," Kotz said. The researchers said food price inflation due to climate extremes may also "raise headline inflation", making it harder for central banks to maintain price stability, especially in developing countries where food has a larger share in household budgets. "High rates of inflation can directly alter election outcomes... and boost support for extremist, anti-system and populist parties," the study said. The study said that in Ghana and Ivory Coast, global cocoa prices increased by around 280 per cent by April 2024 after a February heatwave. The heat was made 4 degrees Celsius hotter by climate change. In Brazil and Vietnam, heatwaves and drought led to a 55 per cent rise in Arabica coffee prices and a 100 per cent rise in Robusta prices. In the European Union, olive oil prices rose 50 per cent year-on-year by January 2024 after a drought in Spain and Italy. In the United States, vegetable prices increased by 80 per cent in November 2022 due to a drought in California and Arizona. The researchers called for urgent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and warned that without climate action, such food shocks will become more frequent. "Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse and it is already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world," Kotz said. The study also recommended that governments and central banks use seasonal climate predictions to anticipate food price shocks and prepare targeted support. It cited an HSBC analysis showing that "temperatures are now a better metric for forecasting food prices across India compared to reservoir levels". The study was released ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake on July 27, co-hosted by Ethiopia and Italy, both of which also experienced food price shocks due to climate change. The researchers said food affordability must become a policy priority to prevent wider health and political impacts. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
Time Magazine
7 days ago
- Business
- Time Magazine
The Surprising Reason Your Groceries Are More Expensive
There's a connection between what you are seeing outside your window and what you are seeing in your grocery store, experts say. Both extreme weather and food costs have been on the rise in recent years. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, showed, inflation overall rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, as tomatoes, eggs, and coffee have all seen significant increases. During the same period, the country has battled record heat, hurricanes, and dangerous flooding. Research suggests it's more than just coincidence that the price increases and weather extremes are coming together. A report published Monday in the journal Environmental Research Letters shows how extreme weather events is correlated to specific food price spikes in the immediate aftermath. Food yield being affected by weather is a tale as old as agriculture, but researchers in the study map how climate change has exacerbated extreme weather events, and is directly correlated to specific food price surges. In fact, researchers name food prices as the second-biggest way climate change is currently being felt across the globe, second to only extreme heat itself. The results of these food price spikes can be devastating, especially for lower-income consumers who spend more of their income on food than the average consumer. Increasing grocery prices have been a major issue on consumers' minds, and were a significant factor in the 2024 election. Two-thirds of Americans say they are very concerned about these costs, according to an April Pew Research Center survey. Though experts say there are other compounding factors related to the rising prices, the report notes that unexpected extreme climate conditions and their effects on crop yield cannot be understated. 'The unprecedented nature of many of the climate conditions behind recent food price spikes highlights the ongoing threats to food security as climate change continues to push societies towards ever less familiar climate conditions,' write the researchers, led by Maximilian Kotz, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. 'While the 2023/24 El Ninõ likely played a role in amplifying a number of these extremes, their increased intensity and frequency is in line with the expected and observed effects of climate change.' Unprecedented weather affects crop yields The study maps 16 specific extreme weather events since 2022 that have impacted food yields, immediately raising the prices of crops that were not able to be harvested. In 2022, for example, droughts across California and Arizona contributed to a 80% year-on-year increase in U.S. vegetable prices by the end of the year, the study found—an impact compounded by the fact that California accounts for over 40% of the country's vegetable production. Weather extremes outside the country have also affected prices: 2023 droughts in Mexico, it showed, contributed to a 20% price increase in vegetables the following January; droughts in Brazil have raised coffee prices 55% globally; and heatwaves in Japan contributed to a 48% raise in rice prices in the fall of 2024. These heatwaves and droughts were 'unprecedented' researchers say, and were felt deeply. David Ortega, food economist and professor at Michigan State University, says it is important to note that climate change does not just impact weather via heat and drought, though. 'It's not just drought, it's floods, it's hurricanes. It can be even colder temperatures that disrupt crops or freeze and frost that are earlier or later than the normal that affect agricultural production,' Ortega, who is not connected to the study, tells TIME. He points to citrus production in Florida, which was heavily impacted by the major hurricanes that hit the state hard in 2024. The study specifically cites the United Kingdom as an example, in which 'wet winters' contributed to an over 22% increase in potato prices. '[Price increases are] being felt right away, because food is perishable. You can store some—a lot of the fruits and vegetables in Mexico tend to be frozen—but a lot of stuff is shipped fresh, and the stuff that is shipped fresh is going to be reflected in the price right away,' says Marc Bellemare, professor of economics at the University of Minnesota. 'Food markets are reasonably integrated.' Andrew Hultgren, assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, says that these extreme weather events particularly impact farmers in 'small locations that grow a majority of the world's supply of some crop,' as the study also notes. He points specifically to the study's example of Ghana and the Ivory Coast, where 60 percent of the world's cocoa is produced. The study links 'unprecedented' temperatures in the region in February 2024 to an increase in global market prices of cocoa of around 300% by that April. 'Corn has grown all over the world, right? So if you have a bad corn season somewhere … it'll be smoothed by somewhere else that will probably be having a relatively good season,' Hultgren says. 'If most of your production is in one location, you don't get that spatial smoothing,' he continues, noting the intensity of particular price increases in these instances. Exacerbating inequalities and inflation The research also notes that food instability and extreme weather could stoke more political instability and inflation, with the world's poor bearing most of the economic pain and health impacts. Bellemare emphasizes that these food price spikes will be felt most by low-income people, who spend a more significant portion of their income on food than the average American. 'The average U.S. household spends about 10% of its budget on food. It is much higher for low income households,' he says. 'I worry more about the distributional consequences than I worry about the geographic consequences.' Hultgren stresses that shifting food prices change the value of the aid low-income Americans receive through programs like SNAP as well. 'That means that the value of food aid, if it's noted in monetary terms, is fluctuating for you as a family, and that does add unpredictability in the finances of a poor family and that variability can just make decisions on other expenditures more difficult,' he says. Hultgren also points out that these inequalities will be felt differently in different countries. For those in Europe and America, the price increases will feel like inflation, he says, but they will be 'an even bigger problem in developing and poorer parts of the world.' Experts note that climate change is just one of a confluence of factors that are all coalescing to affect both supply and demand of food products, and leading to rising food prices. Ortega specifically points to 2022, when he says there was 'the highest increase in food prices in a generation.' He says that the impact of the war in Ukraine must be noted—but the effect of climate change compounded supply chain disruptions and inflation problems. The research paper also notes that food price increases are leading to increased headline inflation. 'Central bank mandates for price stability may become increasingly challenging to deliver if more frequent extreme weather events make food prices less stable domestically and in global markets,' the paper observes. 'These challenges may be magnified if persistent temperature increases cause a sustained upward pressure on inflation or inflation volatility results in lower credibility and a de-anchoring of inflation expectation.' Looking at the future Ortega conducts research on how 'shocks,' like the COVID-19 pandemic or Russia's invasion of Ukraine, affect the agri-food business and impact consumers. Many of these shocks are temporary, Ortega says, though their effects may be intensely felt. The impacts of climate change, however, have only just begun. 'Work like this that shows the impact of climate change on food prices really brings to the surface what I see as one of the significant threats that our food system faces going into the future,' Ortega. 'Climate events and adverse weather that are driven by climate change are increasing in frequency, and that's only going to continue going into the future.' The researchers note in the study that their work is a 'a reminder of the urgency to enact policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming in line with globally agreed targets.' Further, though, they state that mitigations like early warning systems and "timely information on climate conditions' can help farmers limit their exposure and impact to certain extreme events. 'We're not unresponsive in the face of climate change,' Bellemare says. 'There's a lot of adaptation going on. There's insurance products that are being rolled out to those farmers. Everyone's adapting either in terms of production or in terms of financial instruments to kind of insure themselves or hedge against those things.' Some of this adaptation can also be done in farmers' decision-making, Hultgren says, noting farmers can choose to plant more if they know prices are rising, can 'think about what the price history has been for the crops that they can plant,' and can consider the forecast for the coming season. But to make those decisions, he says, information must be available and research conducted. 'If we cut information out of the picture, if we don't provide information about how weather distributions are shifting, how we think they're going to shift in the future, what they think the seasonal forecast for farmers [is] ... that potentially has negative consequences for the ability to for agents to just adapt,' Hultgren says. Ortega notes that weather can be extremely hard to predict, especially fast-moving weather events like floods or hurricanes. And on that front, Ortega says that the government does not seem to be moving in the direction of progress. 'That's one area that I'm highly concerned about, given a lot of the funding cuts at the federal level in the United States, at the moment,' he says. 'We need to be investing to ensure that we have the best science and technology in order to develop those drought resistant varieties, solvent varieties of crops, and ensure that our producers and producers around the world have the best tools needed in order to mitigate the impacts of climate change on their operations.'
11-07-2025
- Politics
No, David Suzuki hasn't given up on the climate fight — but his battle plan is changing
Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki made headlines last week when he said in an interview with iPolitics (new window) that humanity has lost its fight against climate change. We're in deep trouble, Suzuki told the outlet. I've never said this before to the media, but it's too late. Though he made it clear that he hasn't entirely given up, Suzuki says that rather than getting caught up in trying to force change through legal, political and economic systems, we now need to focus on community action. 'We've passed too many boundaries' I look at what the straight science says and that is that we've passed too many boundaries, said Suzuki in an interview with CBC News on Monday. It's going to get hotter, there's going to be floods, and all kinds of other things that we can't predict at this point, he said. As the temperature rises, even half a degree to a degree warmer, the repercussions ecologically are going to be immense. Suzuki says he goes by Johan Rockström's work with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to define nine planetary boundaries, or safe limits for human pressure on certain critical processes. During an interview with CBC in June about deep-sea mining (new window) , Rockström discussed how humanity is approaching tipping points when it comes to climate change. We have more and more scientific evidence that we are pushing these systems to the brink of potential collapse, he said. WATCH | What we can do to continue climate fight even as warnings grow dire: Début du widget Widget. Passer le widget ? Fin du widget Widget. Retourner au début du widget ? Suzuki says that we passed the seventh boundary this year and are now in the extreme danger zone, noting that Rockström says we have five years to get out of it. According to Suzuki, it's not likely we'll be able to pull back on these boundaries within five years. It's crystal clear, we're going to overshoot. For example, the 1.5 C target in global warming set by the 2015 Paris Agreement has now been surpassed. And that was the level we were supposed to reach by 2100, said Suzuki, noting that we haven't capped emissions and they continue to climb. At some point, you have to say, we're not going to do it. Why Suzuki has given up on politics Climate advocates have long said that one of the biggest things people can do to impact climate change is to vote, contact politicians and get involved. But now, Suzuki says he's changing his advice to environmental advocates. He says he hasn't given up on finding solutions, just on waiting for governments and institutions to take meaningful action. WATCH | Suzuki explains why he's given up on governments solving climate crisis: Début du widget Widget. Passer le widget ? Fin du widget Widget. Retourner au début du widget ? It's an unpredictable world that we're heading to, and so much of our efforts in the environmental movement have been spent on assuming that politicians are going to take the right steps, he said. As an example, he recalls approaching an MP at a fundraiser gala for his non-profit environmental foundation. Suzuki says he believed the MP understood the severity of the climate crisis and urged him to reach out across party lines to take action because climate change couldn't remain political. But he says the MP responded by saying he was worried about the next election. And I said, 'Are you saying that you're not going to do what should have been done years ago that must be done immediately because of the political possibility that you'll lose the next election?' Suzuki recalled. And he said, 'Yeah, that's politics — politics prevents you from doing the right thing.' Focus on community and resilience Having abandoned politics as a solution, Suzuki says he's turning to community. Do we just give up? No, he said. Get together with your local block or your series of blocks and start finding out who's going to need help in an emergency. Suzuki says the Kitsilano neighbourhood in Vancouver where he's lived for 50 years is having a block party next week that he hopes will help combat the isolation and loneliness he says will be major challenges for what lies ahead. There are other places in Canada that are also prioritizing community. Enlarge image (new window) In June last year, Lytton Mayor Denise O'Connor walks on the property where her house once stood and will be rebuilt. It and most other buildings in the B.C. town were destroyed in a 2021 wildfire. Today, the town's rebuilding plans include a community hub that will be net zero and have climate resilience built in. Photo: The Canadian Press / Darryl Dyck The town of Lytton, B.C., is still rebuilding after a 2021 wildfire destroyed most of its homes and businesses. Part of their rebuilding plan includes a Community Hub project. We're calling it a hub because we plan to have a number of services within that building … and an outdoor space like a covered festival, farmers market multi-purpose space as well, Lytton Mayor Denise O'Connor told CBC News. The community hub will be net zero and will also have climate resilience built in, with a swimming pool that can double as a water reservoir. Suzuki says this kind of community resilience will be key. LISTEN | How engaging with your community can help with climate anxiety (new window) Mother Nature is going to come down so hard that we're going to have to face up to the big changes, but I'm saying to environmental groups now, 'focus on the local community, get them to be as self-sufficient and self-reliant as you can possibly be,' he said. The science says that we're done for, but I'm saying at least the time that we've got left, let's fight like mad to be as resilient as we can in the face of what's coming. Bridget Stringer-Holden (new window) · CBC News Bridget Stringer-Holden is a 2024 Joan Donaldson CBC News Scholar, currently working as an associate producer. She graduated from UBC's Master of Journalism program and is passionate about science and climate reporting. Her work has been featured in The Globe and Mail, Vancouver Magazine, B.C. Business, The Vancouver Sun, The Georgia Straight and a variety of student papers, podcasts and radio stations. You can reach her at
NDTV
01-07-2025
- Climate
- NDTV
German Weather Station Records Driest First Half Of Year In 13 Decades
New Delhi: A weather station in Potsdam, Germany, one of the world's oldest, has recorded the driest first half of a year since measurements began more than 130 years ago, according to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The station, operated by the German Weather Service, has been running continuously since 1893 and is a key reference point for tracking climate trends. It helps compare current weather conditions such as temperature, rainfall and sunshine with long-term climate patterns. Fred Hattermann, a hydrologist at PIK, said, "According to current data, the station in Potsdam likely recorded a new all-time low in the first half of 2025: just 146.8 millimetres of rainfall, even less than during the same period in 1942 (158.5 millimetres), the previous record." "The long-term average for this location in the first half of the year is around 300 millimetres. Although January brought heavy rainfall across Germany, this declined sharply in February and was almost non-existent in March. In the following months up to and including June, rainfall was also below average in most regions of Germany," he said. Peter Hoffmann, a meteorologist at PIK, said forests are especially affected by long dry periods. "The damage caused in recent years is clearly visible in many regions of Germany and has not yet been repaired and the renewed dry spell is exacerbating the problems. In addition, the higher temperatures have led to higher water requirements for vegetation and the landscape. This is because the average temperature in Germany is now around 2 degrees Celsius higher than it was 100 years ago," he said.
NDTV
11-06-2025
- Climate
- NDTV
What Recent Mumbai Flooding Should Teach Us About Climate
'Unprecedented' and 'overwhelming' - those two words came up repeatedly in Mumbai Metro chief Ashwini Bhide's statement as she described how the railway utility's brand new Acharya Atre station on Line 3 was flooded after a downpour on May 27. The station had to be shut down for a while. Bhide called the rain - 90 mm in 90 minutes - an extreme weather event, for which the company was underprepared. The station had become functional with about 45,000-50,000 passengers using the line, even though work was incomplete. Three of the six entry-exits were still under construction, and one of those close to a storm water system took the brunt of it as the downpour combined with high tide flooded the massive drains. About 1.1 million litres of water filled up in a pit, which overflowed to the concourse and tracks. A bund wall meant to keep water out was not designed for this kind of surge and was overwhelmed in no time. While Mumbai was dealing with a deluge, a glacier collapsed in Switzerland, dumping mud and ice into a valley and burying the village of Blatten. Such was the quantity of rock, mud and ice that the slide caused a minor earthquake. Why Current Forecasting Models Are Inadequate Extreme weather events have become more frequent across the world and barely anyone is spared. Human decision-making is predicated largely on forecasting, even if it is merely a hunch. Otherwise it is driven by data, modelling and sundry other tools made available by modern science and technology. But already it is proving to be inadequate, and two and two are not adding up to four any more. Climate events are increasingly intense and whimsical than ever before, which is throwing calculations out of whack. It has unprecedented ramifications for businesses and the economy. People in the north Indian plains were bracing for heat waves typical of the month of May when rains and thunderstorms struck repeatedly. Seas warming on both sides of peninsular India are causing freak weather patterns, bringing storms, hail and rains across the country. The monsoon arrived a full week in advance, a first in 35 years. The result is the third wettest May in 125 years, according to one report. What was expected to be a bumper season for the cooling industry turned out to be a damp squib, with inventories piling up and air conditioner manufacturers forced to scale back production. Soft drink and ice cream makers have also been hit by early rains. Planetary Boundaries Climate risks are well known even if there are skeptics in high offices such as the White House. It is also quite clear that we are unlikely to do enough to stop pushing the planetary boundaries (PB), a concept introduced in 2009 by Johan Rockström and a group of 28 well known scientists. Rockström was director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The group proposed that there are nine PBs or critical processes that need to stay within safe limits to maintain a stable and resilient Earth. The collaboration, known as PBScience, created a framework to monitor the nine processes to provide an annual health check of the planet. Their first report in 2024 found that six of the nine boundaries - which include fresh water, biodiversity, land systems change and climate - had already been crossed and were rapidly advancing towards the no-return zone. Climate Insurance The inability to accurately forecast weather events and the global political powershift in the developed world in favour of climate change deniers means developing countries will have to hunt for innovative solutions. For India, it could be insurance. At a recent New Delhi event on rising atmospheric temperatures, a veteran of the insurance industry said that general insurers are finding it increasingly tough to underwrite climate risk as forecasting progressively becomes inaccurate. Yet, large-scale insurance cover is essential to address climate risks at a granular level. Indians are by nature averse to paying for insurance as they see it as an unnecessary burden. Low per capita income and rising inflation act as a dampener too. In fact, insurance penetration in India fell in fiscal year 2023-24 to 3.7% compared to 4% the previous year and a global average of 7%. Given the circumstances, it is unlikely there will be takers for expensive climate risk insurance. Climate insurance could, however, be a public good, with the government sharing a big chunk of the burden, with the condition that beneficiaries will undertake measures that will help apply brakes on pushing PBs. For instance, an entire village along with its crops could be insured for flooding provided it agrees to shun single-use plastics and keep water bodies clean and unobstructed. A Countrywide Policy India already has a climate risk insurance for farmers in the form of the Fasal Bima Yojana to protect against loss of crops. Several companies offer parametric insurance, but these are largely restricted to farming and related sectors. There is a need to design a countrywide scheme for businesses, beginning with MSMEs. The Kerala government introduced a general insurance scheme two years ago for MSMEs where the government pays half the premium. But it is an industrial sop with no nudge to act to build climate consciousness and sustainability. Less than 15% of MSMEs in India have any sort of insurance. A publicly funded insurance scheme with in-built incentives for adoption of auditable climate friendly policies could perhaps help move the needle a wee bit. For instance, property developers in flood prone areas could get covers at steep discounts if they help protect natural water channels in and around their sites. Same for manufacturing units and industrial parks that help restore and maintain local ecological balance or improve water tables. Those which come up with innovations could be rewarded with free insurance. With smart innovations, such giant group insurance schemes will also bring down the cost of cover. For context, the 15th Finance Commission had allocated Rs 1.28 lakh crore - Rs 98,000 for the centre and the rest for states - for five years ending 2026. States spent Rs 18,322 crore and the centre gave Rs 4,371 crore as relief in the wake of floods, landslides and storms in 2024-25, the Parliament was informed in March 2025. Yet, these sums are inadequate as projections are conservative and do not appear to account for the intensifying nature and higher frequency of calamities. CAT Bonds To reduce the burden on the taxpayer, laws could be amended to allow reinsurers to issue catastrophe bonds, a financial innovation introduced after large claims in the wake of Hurricane Andrew in the US in 1992 bankrupted eight insurers. Known as CAT bonds, reinsurers sell them through special purpose vehicles (SPV), offering high interest rates and a typical maturity of three to four years. They can be linked to the likely occurrence of specific events or regions and are usually offered to highly sophisticated investors, such as pension and sovereign funds. The SPV invests the money raised in government bonds and earnings are passed on to investors. If the tenure of the bond passes without incident, the investors stand to earn very good returns as well as get the principal back. However, if calamity strikes and claims have to be settled, investors could lose some or all of the principal. CAT bonds help reinsurers spread the risk and reduce the burden on taxpayers. CAT bonds' popularity is rising with the increasing frequency of extreme climate events and investors' search for higher returns. The global CAT bonds market was valued at $50 billion in 2024 and returned 17% that year. The first CAT Bond exchange-traded fund, Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF, started trading in April 2025 although it got caught in the US President Donald Trump's tariff storm. A well designed public insurance scheme for businesses could not only compensate for sudden losses but also act as an effective nudge to enforce sensible behavioural changes in public spaces and businesses - even homes.
