Latest news with #PredictIt
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
PredictIt Says It Can Expand Political Trades Under CFTC Deal
By PredictIt, one of the original US politics-betting platforms, said it reached a new agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to allow it expand its operations. The new agreement with PredictIt, a popular site for bets on politics, allows for an unlimited number of participants to trade in each market, ditching a prior 5,000-person cap, the company said in a statement. Traders can now wager up to $3,500 rather than $850 on any single contract. The new metric is the same as the individual political campaign contribution limit, and may be adjusted with each election cycle.
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
NYC mayoral election update: Lander arrested by ICE; Sanders endorses Mamdani
The Brief The New York City primaries are officially one week away. On Tuesday, mayoral candidate and NYC comptroller Brad Lander was arrested by ICE. Also Tuesday, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Zohran Mamdani, calling him the "best choice for mayor" NEW YORK CITY - Tuesday is officially one week until the 2025 New York City primary elections – and the race to unseat incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is heating up. JUMP TO: TRACKING ELECTION RESULTS | NYC MAYOR POLLS | WHO'S RUNNING FOR MAYOR? Here's a look at the top headlines in the race for mayor, plus the latest polls, candidate profiles and voter information: NYC comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander was arrested by ICE in immigration court Tuesday. A video posted on X shows Lander walking alongside a man whose immigration case had just been dismissed, attempting to escort him out of court to avoid ICE detention, according to the tweet. Agents still arrested the man outside. Follow developments here. What they're saying In a post on X, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders said: "At this dangerous moment in history, status quo politics isn't good enough. We need new leadership that is prepared to stand up to powerful corporate interests & fight for the working class. @ZohranKMamdani is providing that vision. He is the best choice for NYC mayor." MORE: Full list of major NYC mayoral candidate endorsements On Monday, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani and former Bronx Assemblyman Michael Blake cross-endorsed one another. It comes after the New York Times editorial board decided not to back any of the candidates running for mayor. Meanwhile, early voting shows strong participation across all five boroughs. According to unofficial data from the NYC Board of Elections, as of the close of polls on day three (Monday) of early voting, a total of 94,112 voters had checked in. The breakdown by borough is as follows: Manhattan: 31,036 Brooklyn: 33,185 Queens: 19,186 The Bronx: 7,551 Staten Island: 3,154 Now through Sunday, June 22: Last day to vote early. Early voting hours may vary. Tuesday, June 24: Primary Election Day. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. You can check your registration status online HERE. To find your local poll site, click HERE. ***Note: Voter registration for the 2025 NYC primary elections - in person and online - is now closed. Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey: According to a May survey, Cuomo was at 35%, followed by Mamdani at 22% and Lander at 10%. The survey was conducted May 23-26. Marist College: According to a poll conducted in May, Cuomo was at 44%, followed by Mamdani at 22% and Adams at 11%. The survey of 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from May 1-8. Siena College: An April poll had Cuomo at 34%, followed by Mamdani at 16%. The poll surveyed 811 registered voters, with a specific focus on 556 Democratic voters. Betting Odds: According to the overseas online prediction market PredictIt, Cuomo's odds of success stand at 70%, with Mamdani's at 29%. Democratic socialist faces hurdles with Black, Latino voters in NYC mayoral race (Politico) New York mayor's race emerges as proxy war for Democrats' future (The Hill) What do NYC teens think of the mayoral candidates? (Chalkbeat) What you can do Bookmark FOX 5 NY's election results page to track results in real time when polls close on Tuesday, June 24. This year, NYC will use ranked choice voting in primary and special elections for mayor, public advocate, comptroller, borough president, and City Council; a system approved by voters in 2019. On Election Night, results will only show first-choice votes from early voting, in-person voting and processed absentee ballots, accounting for most of the votes. If a candidate is projected to win 50% of first-choice votes, then the Associated Press will declare a projected winner on Election Night. READ MORE: Ranked choice voting explained If no one gets a majority, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and those votes go to the next choice on each ballot. This process continues until two candidates remain; whoever has the most votes then wins. If no candidate has 50% of first-choice votes, the Board of Elections will release an unofficial report on the preliminary elimination rounds on Tuesday, July 1. The BOE plans to certify the results on July 15. NYC Mayor Eric Adams, 64, announced that he would run as an independent, forgoing the Democratic primary for mayor. Jim Walden, 59, a longtime NYC lawyer, is also running as an independent in the 2025 mayoral race. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, 67, has focused his 2025 mayoral campaign on what he describes as a city in crisis. Zohran Mamdani, 33, is a self-declared socialist focused on rent freezes, free bus rides and no-cost childcare. Scott Stringer, 64, former NYC comptroller, is focused on transparency and good governance. Zellnor Myrie, 38, is a Brooklyn native focused on affordable housing and electoral reform. Whitney Tilson, 58, is an investor and lifelong Democrat who has emphasized the need for a city that is safe, affordable and prosperous, criticizing career politicians for failing to address key issues. State Sen. Jessica Ramos, 39, announced that she would be running for NYC mayor amid calls for Eric Adams to resign. Brad Lander, 55, is the current NYC comptroller and a progressive who advocates for police reform, affordable housing, and better management of the migrant crisis. Adrienne Adams, 64, jumped in as a contender to enter the race, directly after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Michael Blake, 42, a former Bronx assemblyman and vice chair of the DNC, is known for his focus on economic equity and social justice. Read more about other races, including public advocate, comptroller and City Council, here. Watch interviews with mayoral candidates here. Ranked choice voting Early voting What's on the ballot?
Yahoo
09-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Yes, your Super Bowl winnings on Kalshi are taxable — just like your win on Trump's election victory
The scores of Americans who bet on the results of last year's presidential race now face a certainty: The Internal Revenue Service will want its cut of the winnings. Prediction markets gained wide visibility last fall as people turned to sites like Polymarket, PredictIt, Kalshi, Interactive Brokers and Robinhood to bet on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would take the White House. My husband has millions in a trust fund, pays all our bills and gives me $4,000 a month. Will I get our house if I divorce him? 'We are shocked and upset': My mother died and her second husband said he now owns everything. Is this true? 'She is financially irresponsible': My husband secretly gives our daughter, 37, thousands of dollars. She spends the money wildly. How do I stop this? My husband and I are in our 50s — and 85% invested in stocks. Is our strategy too aggressive for the next 10 years? 'I paid for everything from day one': My husband barely worked during our marriage. Can I leave my $500,000 IRA to my son? The rise of prediction markets is a relatively new trend, especially when it comes to political events. A court decision last fall cleared the way for traders to bet money on the election's outcome on a massive scale. Now, tax-filing season is underway for the money made in 2024. The IRS has long said any gambling winnings are completely taxable — and those established rules apply just as much to prediction markets, experts say. They're especially relevant with Super Bowl Sunday, the most bet-on single event of the year, set for this weekend. 'It's taxable income,' said Matthew Foreman, a tax attorney and partner at law firm Falcon Rappaport & Berkman. The winnings are income even if the prediction platforms don't send a notice formally reporting the money to the recipient and the IRS, he added. 'Whether or not they get paperwork, it's income — period,' said Russ Fox, principal at Clayton Financial and Tax in Las Vegas. His clients include professional gamblers who have previously made money from prediction markets, and it's his job to make sure they don't run afoul of IRS rules. In the meantime, PredictIt, Kalshi, Interactive Brokers IBKR and Robinhood HOOD all said that they are indeed sending out tax forms. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment. Its fine print says that users have the 'sole responsibility' to make sure they are following the tax laws that might apply. In a sense, investors who buy a stock are betting that the company's share price will increase. When they sell the stock, profits from the sale are subject to capital-gains taxes. If the sale happens more than a year after the purchase, it's known as a long-term gain, which can be taxed at 0%, 15% or 20%. The rate depends on taxable income thresholds; individuals making $200,000 and married couples filing jointly who make $250,000 pay an extra 3.8% net investment income tax. If the sale happens less than a year after purchase, it's considered a short-term capital gain, which counts as ordinary income. That means it's lumped in with other money like wages, and exposed to the ordinary income-tax rates of 10% to 37%. But prediction markets aren't stock markets, and the distinction may have tax implications. On a technical level, prediction markets typically involve the purchase and trade of 'event contracts.' These are financial instruments allowing someone to put money on a 'yes' or 'no' outcome. On a broader level, experts said, buying and selling contracts on prediction markets amounts to speculation on an outcome that's unknown at the time — like the winning Super Bowl team or the results of a roulette-wheel spin. As the tax code's referee, the IRS could view prediction-market winnings as gambling winnings even if they seem like an investment, experts noted. 'I just fundamentally don't see how it could be different from putting money on a sporting event,' said Foreman, the tax attorney. 'If you were to get audited by the IRS on this, I think they'd take a hard-and-fast position that this is just like sports gambling.' What's happening is the creation of 'an investment vehicle that is like a gambling bet,' said Mark Luscombe, principal federal-tax analyst at Wolters Kluwer Tax & Accounting. However, there's still an open question as to whether prediction-market winnings are gambling income. 'These brokers probably do not consider themselves to be gambling establishments. I am not sure how the IRS will view the issue,' Luscombe said. 'The brokerages seem to seek to contend that it is not gambling — rather, it is a method that can be used to hedge risks, while acknowledging that some may use the contract who are not hedging risks,' he added. Fox took a more cut-and-dry approach — recalling the old saying about what to make of something if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and sounds like a duck. 'The duck test says this is gambling,' he said. The IRS and the Treasury Department did not respond to requests for comment. The IRS has specific rules concerning gambling winnings and losses. Most importantly, the winnings count as ordinary income and not as a capital gain, for which long-term gains would typically be taxed at a lower rate. The IRS does allow a tax break for gambling losses, but there's a catch: Anyone who wants to use it needs to itemize their deductions. Relatively few people do that, and instead take the standard deduction. Furthermore, the size of the gambling-loss deduction cannot exceed the amount that's won. In other words, someone who won $100 and lost $200 could only claim a $100 gambling-loss deduction. When a casino or a sports-betting site pays out, the lucky winner can expect a tax document called a Form W-2 G. It's generally sent once winnings total at least $600 and at least 300 times the wager amount, according to the IRS. Once winnings are above $5,000 and at least 300 times the amount of the wager, the gambling establishment may hold back 24% of the haul, Luscombe added. The 24% isn't a tax rate; rather, it's a withholding amount in the same vein as wages held back on a paycheck, he noted. The amount in taxes still owed or due back is ultimately determined at tax time with the rest of a person's income picture. There's another catch: The prediction sites and exchanges say they are sending out 1099 forms, which are a different document that's used to report investment income, not gambling income. PredictIt, for example, said through a spokesperson last month that it's 'required to issue Form 1099 to any trader, resident in the U.S., who has a net profit of $600 or more in any calendar year.' Net profit is what's left after losses, trading fees and withdrawal fees are subtracted from the gross profit, the spokesperson said — adding that PredictIt's accounting team 'is working on [the tax forms] now.' Robinhood's website notes that the money from event contracts will be entered as 'miscellaneous income' on a 1099. If the actual payment is received this year, that money would be reported for 2025 returns filed next year. However, if someone bought and sold an event-contract position last year, the money would be reported on the 2024 tax return filed this year. A Kalshi spokesperson said the company 'provides a statement for users with their history similar to a 1099-B they would receive from their stock broker.' Interactive Brokers told MarketWatch: 'We will be reporting on a 1099, but provide no guidance as to how the client should report this on their tax return as the client should consult a tax professional.' The brokerage offers event contracts through its subsidiary, ForecastEx. Brokerages have until Feb. 18 to supply these 1099 forms to recipients documenting their 2024 profits. The fact that prediction-market winnings are being shown on a 1099, instead of on the W-2 G issued by casino and sports-betting sites, may not matter to the IRS, according to Foreman and Luscombe. By getting the third-party reporting from prediction-market sites, the IRS is learning that someone has taxable income to report, they said. The prediction-market money is taxed as ordinary income, whether it's gambling winnings or a short-term capital gain, Luscombe said. Still, it would be important to know if the IRS would certainly treat the income as gambling winnings rather than as investment income, Fox noted. His professional-gambler clients have reported their prediction-market winnings on their Schedule C form, which documents business profits and losses, rather than on a 1099. Many prediction-market winnings might stay under $600 and not trigger the issuing of a tax form, Fox said. But there's 'absolutely, positively no rule that says if you don't get a tax form, you don't have to report [the income],' he added. There is an attachment to the main tax-return form, a Schedule 1 document, where amateurs with prediction-market winnings could consider reporting the money, according to Fox. There's a line for gambling and a line for other income where people could conceivably record their winnings, even those under $600, he said. What if someone wants to roll the dice and skip reporting their prediction-market income — even when they haven't received tax forms and their win is sizable? Such unreported winnings 'may escape detection given the low audit rates [of taxpayers] by the IRS,' Luscombe said. However, 'audits of gambling institutions may be more likely and produce information about those who received gambling winnings,' he added. Prediction markets are just another space at the intersection of life and taxes that could use some extra clarity from the IRS, Foreman said. There's still a basic rule of thumb for those winnings, he noted: 'The most important thing is to put it on your return.' What personal-finance issues would you like to see covered in MarketWatch? We would like to hear from readers about their financial decisions and money-related questions. You can fill out or write to us at . A reporter may be in touch to learn more. MarketWatch will not attribute your answers to you by name without your permission. 'How do I shield my retirement savings?' 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Politico
08-02-2025
- Business
- Politico
Wall Street's Super Bowl push kicks off betting fight in Washington
As the Super Bowl nears, Wall Street financial exchanges are squaring off against the gaming industry and the National Football League in a contest over another big prize: the sports betting bonanza. The gaming lobby, the NFL and a top regulator are sounding alarms about what they say is the potential danger of so-called prediction markets — nationwide exchanges that allow Americans to bet on sporting events like Sunday's matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Among other complaints: The exchanges effectively allow sports betting in the dozen states that prohibit such gambling. Critics also say the markets — whose powerful backers include Donald Trump Jr. — may be illegal and are at risk of manipulation, lack consumer safeguards and could turn highly regulated financial exchanges into 'speculative casinos.' Supporters see sports as the next frontier in the broad push across finance to allow traders, investors and businesses to directly wager on everything from election outcomes to who President Donald Trump will pardon next. 'This is a backdoor attempt to allow gambling in the financial markets,' said Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy for the financial reform advocacy group Better Markets. 'It's straight gambling.' The backlash sets the stage for what could be a bruising fight over whether prediction markets should be allowed into the world of sports. The sports betting industry, which is currently regulated state by state, has seen its growth surge, with more than $100 billion in wagers placed in 2023. The overall gaming industry is populated with major Trump allies like GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson and once drew the interest of Trump's pick for Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, who founded a sports betting company years ago in Nevada. But the prediction markets could pose new competition to sportsbooks and casinos. Sports events are largely uncharted territory for prediction markets that some regulators view as a type of gaming activity that is prohibited under the rules of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal agency. But the markets foresee a friendlier environment under Trump that could lead to a gold rush of new products. 'The floodgates have opened, and there's significant change coming' to what can be listed on the markets, said John Aristotle Phillips, co-founder of PredictIt, a political prediction market that has been fighting the CFTC in court for the last several years. 'It's a breath of fresh air.' Emboldened by a court decision last year clearing the way for legal election betting, the prediction markets began to push into sports in December. led the way and was quickly followed last month by Kalshi, an upstart derivatives exchange that recently added Trump Jr. as an adviser. On Monday, the push into sports took a major leap forward when brokerage giant Robinhood unveiled a partnership with Kalshi to bring Super Bowl wagers to its customers. Led by Republican Acting Chair Caroline Pham, the CFTC is expected to take a friendlier approach to prediction markets generally in the years ahead. But the derivatives regulator has long had concerns about these markets venturing into sports, viewing that as off-limits for regulated exchanges, former and current agency officials say. State regulations on the other hand, critics say, have tighter controls that are geared specifically for sports gambling — rather than financial markets. The agency pushed Robinhood to stop offering Super Bowl products little more than 24 hours after it introduced them — citing 'serious concerns' about their legality. And that was after the CFTC pressed both and Kalshi to explain how their markets are legal under the agency's rules. A person familiar with the CFTC's dynamics, who was granted anonymity to describe the internal conversations, told POLITICO that Pham has pressed staff at the agency to find ways to force the exchanges to stop the trading so they can review the products. The CFTC prohibits trading in products that involve gaming and are contrary to the public interest, though gaming has never been explicitly defined. While Robinhood did halt the products on its platform, the company maintains it followed the CFTC's rules, as have and Kalshi. Robinhood General Counsel Lucas Moskowitz said the company was 'in regular contact with the CFTC prior to launching this product and we believe we are in full compliance with all applicable regulations.' 'Nonetheless, we are heeding their directive to cease offering these contracts despite the fact that the CFTC has not deemed Kalshi's football championship contracts illegal,' Moskowitz said. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told POLITICO the company believes sports trading is legal under the CFTC's rules and that the agency's recent letters about the products are 'actually a good thing.' He said they show a willingness by the CFTC to engage with the industry. did not respond to a request for comment. But it's not just the CFTC. NFL representatives have been meeting with lawmakers to warn about the markets' lack of safeguards. And the American Gaming Association, which represents the casino gaming industry, says the markets undercut the dozens of state-based regulatory frameworks set up for sports betting. AGA Senior Vice President of Government Relations Chris Cylke said the group is calling on and Kalshi to stop offering sports products while the CFTC reviews them. NFL spokesperson Alex Riethmiller said the league is following the developments. Others say the prediction markets are not built to monitor for sports-specific issues, such as match-fixing and manipulation. The National Council on Problem Gambling is worried about whether the markets are equipped to promote responsible gambling. That includes offering users the ability to set limits on how much money they can spend on the platform in a given day or whether the companies' employees know how to identify users with gambling problems, said NCPG Communications Director Cait Huble. 'What they're offering here is for all intents and purposes sports betting,' said an executive for a professional sports league, who was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. 'If there's going to be sports betting, it's incredibly important that it's regulated in a way that protects consumers and the integrity of the game. What we see here is that, ultimately, this is going to lead to a product that lacks those safeguards.' Mansour pushed back on the idea that Kalshi is only offering sports betting on its platform. Its products, he said, can be used by a range of companies connected to sports events to hedge financial risk given that their businesses are tightly tied to a team's success. That includes vendors, hotels near stadiums and companies with endorsement deals. He said the CFTC's regulatory regime includes protection around match-fixing and limiting how much traders can wager on a given product. 'We're talking about opening up a fair, transparent and open exchange where people are trading against each other,' Mansour said. 'There's no unfair playing field or house' involved. The CFTC is expected to pursue a new rule for the prediction markets during Trump's administration — potentially laying out in greater detail what types of products can be traded. Pham recently announced plans to hold a roundtable in the coming weeks. And while the agency has been scrutinizing the markets' push into sports, even Pham is critical of the CFTC's approach to prediction markets. 'Prediction markets are an important new frontier in harnessing the power of markets to assess sentiment to determine probabilities that can bring truth to the Information Age,' she said in a statement. 'The CFTC must break with its past hostility to innovation and take a forward-looking approach to the possibilities of the future.'
