Republicans eagerly await Lara Trump's decision on North Carolina Senate seat

The Hill

a day ago

Republicans are eager to see Lara Trump enter the North Carolina Senate race, with many seeing her as their best opportunity to keep the seat after Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced he wouldn't seek reelection.
The daughter-in-law of President Trump and a former Republican National Committee (RNC) co-chair, Lara Trump has quickly become an early favorite for the GOP nomination if she chooses to run. A source close to the president said she's considering a bid; it would clear the Republican field if she chooses to go forward.
While she's turned down possible Senate bids in the past, she would bring significant name recognition and instant backing from the top levels of the GOP.
'She has, in my opinion, earned the right of first refusal if she wants to do it,' said North Carolina Republican strategist Jonathan Felts. 'And more importantly, regardless of what I think about it, the most powerful and the most popular Republican on the planet, he thinks so, too.'
A potential Senate run for Lara Trump, who is married to the president's son Eric, has been teased for years.
She was rumored as a possible candidate to succeed former Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in the state's 2022 Senate race, but she decided against it, citing the difficulty of running with young children. She endorsed then-Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in the race; he went on to win.
'I am saying no for now, not no forever,' she said at the time about her own possible candidacy.
She was also rumored last year to be an option for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to fill the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She removed her name from consideration despite 'encouragement from so many.'
But speculation has been building for months that Trump would finally take the plunge for Tillis's seat in 2026, even before Tillis announced he wouldn't seek another term. A November survey from a Republican pollster found her leading Tillis in a hypothetical primary match-up by an overwhelming margin.
With Tillis out, Trump has commanded the attention in the race for the past few weeks.
The president mentioned Lara Trump when asked by reporters about who could replace Tillis, saying she's 'somebody that would really be great.' He acknowledged that she and Eric live in Florida, but he emphasized her ties to the Tar Heel State.
'She's a great person, Lara Trump. I mean, that would always be my first choice, but she doesn't live there now,' President Trump said. 'But she's there all the time, her parents are there. You know, she really knows North Carolina well.'
And one of the other top names being floated, RNC Chair Michael Whatley, signaled he would defer to her if she wants to run and would expect the party to do so as well.
'What I will say is this: If Lara Trump is going to be interested, then she is certainly going to have the entire Republican universe — myself included — that are going to coalesce behind her,' he told the Washington Examiner in an interview.
First-term Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.), another possible candidate, also said he wouldn't run if Trump does.
A GOP operative who's worked on North Carolina Senate races described Trump's choice as 'personal' and a 'family decision.'
But Republicans said a Trump candidacy would likely be their best-case scenario, particularly as former Gov. Roy Cooper mulls a bid for the seat on the Democratic side.
Felts said having Trump on the ballot could help increase turnout for Republicans, noting her father-in-law's demonstrated prowess at encouraging voters who often don't participate to come to the polls.
He said Republicans will have to maximize turnout in small rural areas to overcome Democratic strengths in other parts of the state.
Felts said no candidate could reach the level of support the president would have, but he would give a boost.
'He's just a uniquely popular figure, but having a Trump on the ballot would be helpful,' he said.
Still, Lara Trump could have some potential vulnerabilities if she runs. Despite playing an active role in campaigning for her father-in-law and other candidates previously, she has never run for office herself.
North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson said her candidacy would solve a problem Republicans had with Tillis, who was increasingly unpopular with the Republican base. But she could turn off the critical 1 percent to 3 percent of voters who swing in the middle.
'I think Thom Tillis had a better shot at those voters than Lara Trump does because he did not come across to those voters as a partisan warrior,' Jackson said. 'And frankly, I think the last thing voters are looking for is a partisan warrior right now, and I say that as either a Democrat or Republican nominee.'
'What is clear is with Thom Tillis being run out of the race by [President] Trump is that they're going to get a partisan warrior,' he added.
Felts said he's not concerned about Lara Trump being untested as a candidate because she showed her strength while campaigning for others. He said she 'had audiences eating out of her hand' speaking at the state GOP convention in 2021, demonstrating her grassroots appeal.
'I know she's told Ted, she's all in for Ted,' Felts recalled thinking at the time. 'If she were to announce right now [she's running], I mean, the place would just go insane.'
One other attack she could face is a perceived lack of loyalty to North Carolina. Despite being born and raised there, she and her family live in Florida. Accusations of carpetbagging have been a common attack in key Senate races in recent years.
But Republicans emphasized that she still has deep ties to the state and knows it well.
One North Carolina Republican insider pointed to former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R), who was originally from the state but hadn't lived there for years before her comfortable electoral victory to the Senate in 2002.
'She's very well known,' he said. 'She has taken time with the grassroots, speaking [at] a bunch of Lincoln-Reagan dinners across the state over the years, and so she's definitely a known commodity and considered North Carolinian by the key folks in this state.'
The insider said she would start out with an advantage in name identification that the other possible GOP candidates couldn't match and get the voters who only vote every four years.
'It's just a question of, are there voters in the middle, unaffiliated voters' who preferred President Trump to former Vice President Kamala Harris but aren't fully invested in Trump himself, he added.
'I don't know. That would be tested for sure,' he said. 'I do think that that's offset by all of the enthusiastic Trump voters that would turn out in a midterm that might not otherwise.'
Jackson stressed that the result in the battleground state will likely be close regardless of the candidates, though analysts agree candidate quality will matter considerably.
'North Carolina is a very big state. It's big. It's hard to win. I don't care which side of the aisle you're on,' he said. 'You're going to have a close race, and it's going to be a tough race.'