Latest news with #RichardFontaine
The Hindu
25-06-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
The ‘Axis of Upheaval' in the West Asia conflict
As the war between Israel and Iran has resulted in a ceasefire after being layered with America's bombing of Iran's nuclear sites, the narrative of the world being divided into power blocs like those during the Cold War era stands punctured. With Iran having suffered a political and military decapitation of leadership and capacity alike, its main partners, China and Russia, have maintained a distance. Before the conflict, Iran had been central to the narrative of the global order's perceived fracturing between palatable West-led alliances against a Moscow- and Beijing-knitted axis, dubbed as the 'Axis of Upheaval' by American scholars Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor. In Russia's war against Ukraine, Iranian drone technologies have played a critical role, while Moscow and Tehran, despite certain regional differences, once joined hands to stabilise the government of the now ousted Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, as sanctions have gnawed at Iran's economic depth over the years, China has gained much by continuing to buy cheap oil from the country. This has been helpful to Beijing in powering its stagnating growth while giving Tehran much needed cash inflows in a polity and society that is starved of steady financial streams. No treaties However, all this balancing has strategic limitations as well. The axes, at best, are a narrative construct. There are no treaties that bind these states into military blocs, where charters can be mobilised to push the others to join a war if a partner country is attacked. The underpinnings of these partnerships nonetheless go deeper, spilling over into a reconstruction of institutions, currencies, multilateralism and how the world operates today. They want de-dollarisation, alternatives to western payments gateways such as SWIFT, and a strengthening of organisations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as well as fundamental anti-West ecosystems. But there is no military treaty to anchor all these, which marks a critical gap in taking on western influence which is pinned using both treaties and understandings. Russia and China, nonetheless, have made statements in favour of Iran as a way of support. Moscow has criticised those backing Israel's actions, including the ambiguity of positions taken by the International Atomic Energy Agency and attempts to manipulate international non-proliferation regimes. Russia's President Vladimir Putin in a telephone call offered mediation, which was sidelined by United States President Donald Trump. The noticeable part was this: it was not that Mr. Putin wanted to mediate, but political and diplomatic support may be the only thing Russia may be able to offer Iran at this stage. Tehran has comprehensive strategic partnerships that it signed with Mr. Putin (2025) and China's President Xi Jinping (2021), which are almost exclusively economic in nature. While aligning with Iran as part of an axis in the long term makes sense if one considers the country's vast energy reserves (many of which remain untapped due to technology-led roadblocks aided by international sanctions), the fact is that neither Russia nor China have the intent or the bandwidth to come to Tehran's aid in a military sense even though the suitability of the current political system under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is critical to their own individual interests. Where Russia stands For Moscow, its war against Ukraine has tied down most of its political and military capabilities. The other opaque member of the axis, North Korea, is already providing soldiers to Russia to arrest its depleting military depth. This denies it any capabilities to tactically help Tehran. Previously, with its bases and assets in Syria, providing some air power assistance could have been possible, at least theoretically. However, with the fall of the Assad regime, which has now been replaced by former al-Qaeda leader Ahmed Al Sharaa — ironically, he is prioritising relations with the West pushed by Arab partners — Moscow has lost the only military footing it had in West Asia. China too has come out in support of Iran. While its Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a call with his Israeli counterpart highlighted how Israeli strikes were violating international law, a readout after a call between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin interestingly demanded that the U.S. (without referencing it directly) orchestrate a de-escalation. While both Russia and China are worried about the wider implications of this conflict, it benefits their strategic postures in many ways. With the U.S. now having joined Israel in attacking Iran, a decision Mr. Trump took while keeping even his closest advisers in the dark, it would bog the White House down once again in West Asia, potentially relocating critical military assets away from the Indo-Pacific and from Ukraine. This would free-up space in both Beijing and Moscow's immediate geographies of interest while also potentially sowing self-inflicted discord within the Trump administration. For now, a brittle U.S.-backed ceasefire is holding Tehran and Tel Aviv at bay. The outlook For Iran, the news on any of the axes front is not good. While Russia and China may prioritise their own positions, the proverbial 'Axis of Resistance' made up of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis among others is down for the count as Iran's first line of defence and offence in the region. Finally, the future of Iran, irrespective of what kind of political reality prevails, even in a moderate system, may be shaped by the point that only nuclear power can hereon guarantee sovereignty. Kabir Taneja is Deputy Director and Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation
South China Morning Post
24-06-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China not likely to use navy to secure Hormuz Strait, analyst says
China is highly unlikely to use its navy to secure the vital Strait of Hormuz if Iran threatens to close it as Middle East tensions rise, a top US analyst told reporters Monday. Although China depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil, its approach would be shaped by quiet negotiations and self-interest, not direct military intervention, Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, said. He pointed to attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in the Red Sea last year, when Beijing reached an agreement with the group to spare Chinese-flagged vessels. 'China acted, but it just cut a separate deal with the Houthis,' Fontaine said. Its focus, he added, was 'protecting its own interests' rather than policing global waterways. Play Although about 16 per cent of China's seaborne crude came from Iran in early 2025, CNAS analysts said its approach would remain shaped by long-standing economic interests.
South China Morning Post
23-06-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China not seen as likely to use navy to secure Hormuz Strait
China is highly unlikely to use its navy to secure the vital Strait of Hormuz if Iran threatens to close it as Middle East tensions rise, a top US analyst told reporters Monday. Although China depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil, its approach would be shaped by quiet negotiations and self-interest, not direct military intervention, Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, said. He pointed to attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in the Red Sea last year, when Beijing reached an agreement with the group to spare Chinese-flagged vessels. 'China acted, but it just cut a separate deal with the Houthis,' Fontaine said. Its focus, he added, was 'protecting its own interests' rather than policing global waterways. Play Although about 16 per cent of China's seaborne crude came from Iran in early 2025, CNAS analysts said its approach would remain shaped by long-standing economic interests.
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Anthropic appoints a national security expert to its governing trust
A day after announcing new AI models designed for U.S. national security applications, Anthropic has appointed a national security expert, Richard Fontaine, to its long-term benefit trust. Anthropic's long-term benefit trust is a governance mechanism that Anthropic claims helps it promote safety over profit, and which has the power to elect some of the company's board of directors. The trust's other members include Centre for Effective Altruism CEO Zachary Robinson, Clinton Health Access Initiative CEO Neil Buddy Shah, and Evidence Action President Kanika Bahl. In a statement, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said that Fontaine's hiring will "[strengthen] the trust's ability to guide Anthropic through complex decisions" about AI as it relates to security. "Richard's expertise comes at a critical time as advanced AI capabilities increasingly intersect with national security considerations," Amodei continued. "I've long believed that ensuring democratic nations maintain leadership in responsible AI development is essential for both global security and the common good." Fontaine, who as a trustee won't have a financial stake in Anthropic, previously served as a foreign policy adviser to the late Sen. John McCain and was an adjunct professor at Georgetown teaching security studies. For more than six years, he led the Center for A New American Security, a national security think tank based in Washington, D.C., as its president. Anthropic has increasingly engaged U.S. national security customers as it looks for new sources of revenue. In November, the company teamed up with Palantir and AWS, the cloud computing division of Anthropic's major partner and investor, Amazon, to sell Anthropic's AI to defense customers. To be clear, Anthropic isn't the only top AI lab going after defense contracts. OpenAI is seeking to establish a closer relationship with the U.S. Defense Department, and Meta recently revealed that it's making its Llama models available to defense partners. Meanwhile, Google is refining a version of its Gemini AI capable of working within classified environments, and Cohere, which primarily builds AI products for businesses, is also collaborating with Palantir to deploy its AI models. Fontaine's hiring comes as Anthropic beefs up its executive ranks. In May, the company named Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings to its board. This article originally appeared on TechCrunch at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Anthropic appoints a national security expert to its governing trust
A day after announcing new AI models designed for U.S. national security applications, Anthropic has appointed a national security expert, Richard Fontaine, to its long-term benefit trust. Anthropic's long-term benefit trust is a governance mechanism that Anthropic claims helps it promote safety over profit, and which has the power to elect some of the company's board of directors. The trust's other members include Centre for Effective Altruism CEO Zachary Robinson, Clinton Health Access Initiative CEO Neil Buddy Shah, and Evidence Action President Kanika Bahl. In a statement, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said that Fontaine's hiring will "[strengthen] the trust's ability to guide Anthropic through complex decisions" about AI as it relates to security. "Richard's expertise comes at a critical time as advanced AI capabilities increasingly intersect with national security considerations," Amodei continued. "I've long believed that ensuring democratic nations maintain leadership in responsible AI development is essential for both global security and the common good." Fontaine, who as a trustee won't have a financial stake in Anthropic, previously served as a foreign policy adviser to the late Sen. John McCain and was an adjunct professor at Georgetown teaching security studies. For more than six years, he led the Center for A New American Security, a national security think tank based in Washington, D.C., as its president. Anthropic has increasingly engaged U.S. national security customers as it looks for new sources of revenue. In November, the company teamed up with Palantir and AWS, the cloud computing division of Anthropic's major partner and investor, Amazon, to sell Anthropic's AI to defense customers. To be clear, Anthropic isn't the only top AI lab going after defense contracts. OpenAI is seeking to establish a closer relationship with the U.S. Defense Department, and Meta recently revealed that it's making its Llama models available to defense partners. Meanwhile, Google is refining a version of its Gemini AI capable of working within classified environments, and Cohere, which primarily builds AI products for businesses, is also collaborating with Palantir to deploy its AI models. Fontaine's hiring comes as Anthropic beefs up its executive ranks. In May, the company named Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings to its board.
