Latest news with #SociétéGénérale
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Did the U.S. or the EU emerge as the winner in Trump trade deal?
The new trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union will lift tariffs on imports of goods from EU countries to their highest level in decades and hurt the trading bloc's economic growth, according to some experts. "It is an asymmetric and unbalanced deal," economists with investment bank Société Générale said in a report. The EU decided neither to retaliate nor to increase its tariffs, and is even expected to reduce them. The EU agreed to a bad deal rather than risk trade war escalation." The average tariff on U.S. imports from the EU will surge from 1.2% in 2024 to 17.5%, according to investor advisory firm Capital Economics. That will reduce the EU's annual gross domestic product by 0.2%, the investment advisory firm forecast. EU countries annually ship more than $300 billion in goods to the U.S., accounting for more than 20% of total U.S. imports. Mexico ranks second among America's trade partners at roughly 15% of U.S. imports, while Canada accounts for 11% (see chart at bottom.) The deal, announced Sunday by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, imposes a 15% U.S. tariff on most EU imports, while American goods exported to the union's 27 member countries will face no tariffs. Previously, U.S. exports to the EU faced an average tariff of roughly 1%, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. The EU also pledged to buy $750 billion worth of energy from the U.S., up from about $80 billion a year, and to invest $600 billion by 2028. The trade agreement will boost Americans by increasing access to the EU's vast market and supporting the U.S. manufacturing sector, according to the Trump administration. "This colossal deal will enable U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen and manufacturers to increase U.S. exports, expand business opportunities and help reduce the goods trade deficit with the European Union," the White House said Monday in a fact sheet about the pact. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for additional comment. Reducing uncertainty Although the agreement sharply raises U.S. tariffs, economists said the deal will also help ease some of the uncertainty around trade relations with a key trading partner. Perhaps most important, it is better than the alternative given that Mr. Trump had threatened to slap a 30% tariff on EU imports. More broadly, the EU deal and the Trump administration's framework agreement with Japan last week — both of which set 15% as a baseline tariff — also could help pave the way for trade agreements with Canada, Korea, Mexico and other countries, including on key sectors like autos, experts said. "[C]ompared to expectations we had a few weeks before, in particular when pharmaceuticals and semiconductors could have been subject to higher tariffs, it looks like this deal is better than feared," Michel Martinez, head Europe economist at Société Générale, told CBS MoneyWatch. European auto exports would face a 15% levy, down from 25%, according to Goldman Sachs. Von der Leyen also said the U.S. would eliminate tariffs on some products, including aircraft and parts, semiconductor manufacturing gear, natural resources, some farm products, and certain chemicals and generic drugs. Likewise, the EU would abolish tariffs on those products. Neither the U.S. nor the EU has released details of the pact, and lobbying by some industries is expected to continue. For example, Unione Italiana Vini, an Italian trade group representing winemakers, said in a statement on Monday that a 15% tariff on EU imports will result in a a $371 million hit for exporters. "We are now calling on the Italian government and the EU to consider appropriate measures to safeguard a sector that has grown significantly thanks to U.S. buyers," the group's president, Lamberto Frescobaldi, said in a statement, while acknowledging that the deal "at least resolved the uncertainty that was stalling the market." According to the group's analysis, a bottle of Italian wine that previously retailed for $11.50 in the U.S. will now cost nearly $15 under the new tariff agreement. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), which represents German automakers, also said a 15% U.S. tariff on the country's automotive products will hurt its car manufacturers, while noting that the new tariff rate amounts to a reprieve from the 25% automobile levies EU nations have faced since April. Despite the Trump administration's recent trade deals with the EU, Japan, U.K. and several other Asian countries, the U.S. still faces a self-imposed Aug. 1 deadline to reach agreements with Canada, Mexico, Korean other key trading partners. "The Wizard of Oz" as you've never seen it before John Oliver: The 60 Minutes Interview Finding the plane used for Argentina's dictatorship-era "death flights" | 60 Minutes Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CBS News
a day ago
- Business
- CBS News
Did the U.S. or the EU emerge as the winner in Trump trade deal?
The new trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union will lift tariffs on imports of goods from EU countries to their highest level in decades and hurt the trading bloc's economic growth, according to some experts. "It is an asymmetric and unbalanced deal," economists with investment bank Société Générale said in a report. The EU decided neither to retaliate nor to increase its tariffs, and is even expected to reduce them. The EU agreed to a bad deal rather than risk trade war escalation." The average tariff on U.S. imports from the EU will surge from 1.2% in 2024 to 17.5%, according to investor advisory firm Capital Economics. That will reduce the EU's annual gross domestic product by 0.2%, the investment advisory firm forecast. EU countries annually ship more than $300 billion in goods to the U.S., accounting for more than 20% of total U.S. imports. Mexico ranks second among America's trade partners at roughly 15% of U.S. imports, while Canada accounts for 11% (see chart at bottom.) The deal, announced Sunday by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, imposes a 15% U.S. tariff on most EU imports, while American goods exported to the union's 27 member countries will face no tariffs. Previously, U.S. exports to the EU faced an average tariff of roughly 1%, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. The EU also pledged to buy $750 billion worth of energy from the U.S., up from about $80 billion a year, and to invest $600 billion by 2028. The trade agreement will boost Americans by increasing access to the EU's vast market and supporting the U.S. manufacturing sector, according to the Trump administration. "This colossal deal will enable U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen and manufacturers to increase U.S. exports, expand business opportunities and help reduce the goods trade deficit with the European Union," the White House said Monday in a fact sheet about the pact. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for additional comment. Although the agreement sharply raises U.S. tariffs, economists said the deal will also help ease some of the uncertainty around trade relations with a key trading partner. Perhaps most important, it is better than the alternative given that Mr. Trump had threatened to slap a 30% tariff on EU imports. More broadly, the EU deal and the Trump administration's framework agreement with Japan last week — both of which set 15% as a baseline tariff — also could help pave the way for trade agreements with Canada, Korea, Mexico and other countries, including on key sectors like autos, experts said. "[C]ompared to expectations we had a few weeks before, in particular when pharmaceuticals and semiconductors could have been subject to higher tariffs, it looks like this deal is better than feared," Michel Martinez, head Europe economist at Société Générale, told CBS MoneyWatch. European auto exports would face a 15% levy, down from 25%, according to Goldman Sachs. Von der Leyen also said the U.S. would eliminate tariffs on some products, including aircraft and parts, semiconductor manufacturing gear, natural resources, some farm products, and certain chemicals and generic drugs. Likewise, the EU would abolish tariffs on those products. Neither the U.S. nor the EU has released details of the pact, and lobbying by some industries is expected to continue. For example, Unione Italiana Vini, an Italian trade group representing winemakers, said in a statement on Monday that a 15% tariff on EU imports will result in a a $371 million hit for exporters. "We are now calling on the Italian government and the EU to consider appropriate measures to safeguard a sector that has grown significantly thanks to U.S. buyers," the group's president, Lamberto Frescobaldi, said in a statement, while acknowledging that the deal "at least resolved the uncertainty that was stalling the market." According to the group's analysis, a bottle of Italian wine that previously retailed for $11.50 in the U.S. will now cost nearly $15 under the new tariff agreement. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), which represents German automakers, also said a 15% U.S. tariff on the country's automotive products will hurt its car manufacturers, while noting that the new tariff rate amounts to a reprieve from the 25% automobile levies EU nations have faced since April. Despite the Trump administration's recent trade deals with the EU, Japan, U.K. and several other Asian countries, the U.S. still faces a self-imposed Aug. 1 deadline to reach agreements with Canada, Mexico, Korean other key trading partners.
Argaam
3 days ago
- Business
- Argaam
Société Générale hired as primary dealer for local gov't debt instruments
The Ministry of Finance and the National Debt Management Center (NDMC) signed an agreement with Société Générale to appoint the latter as a primary dealer for local government debt instruments. In a statement, NDMC said Société Générale joined five international financial institutions previously enrolled in the primary dealer program. They include BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Standard Chartered. This is in addition to the 10 local financial institutions: Saudi National Bank (SNB), Saudi Awwal Bank (SAB), Bank AlJazira, Alinma Bank, Al Rajhi Bank, Albilad Capital, AlJazira Capital, Al Rajhi Capital, Derayah Financial, and Saudi Fransi Capital. NDMC noted that this agreement is part of ongoing efforts to achieve the goals of Saudi Vision 2030 under the Financial Sector Development Program through enabling financial institutions and developing an advanced capital market. It also highlighted the role of the NDMC in enhancing access to local debt markets through diversifying the investor base to ensure sustainable access and support the development of the secondary market.
Business Insider
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Famed market bear Albert Edwards warns of an 'everything bubble' in US stocks and home prices that could soon pop
Société Générale's Albert Edwards, famed for calling the dot-com bubble leading up to the 2000 crash, is again warning investors of a potentially painful plunge ahead. In his latest note to clients this week, Edwards said US stocks and home prices are in an "everything bubble" that he thinks could soon pop. Stock valuations are indeed steep. The Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio sits at 38, one of its highest levels ever, and both the trailing and forward 12-month PE ratios of the S&P 500 are historically high. To Edwards, this doesn't sit well with the fact that long-term interest rates have been on the rise. Rising long-end government bond yields tend to weigh on stock-market valuations as investors can find attractive returns without taking on the high level of risk in the stock market. Yet US stocks have seen a robust rally in recent years, gaining 78% since October 2022 lows. The market's high valuations have kept future estimated equity-market yields low. When stocks are more cheaply valued, they can expect higher future returns, and vice versa. "It is notable how the US equity market has been able to sustain nose-bleed high valuations despite longer bond yields grinding higher," Edwards wrote. "I don't expect it'll be able to ignore it much longer." On housing, Edwards said that the home price-to-income ratio in the US has been virtually flat over the last few years following the pandemic bump, while the ratio has dropped in countries like the UK and France. "The US is the only market in which house price/income ratios have NOT de-rated since 2022 as bond yields have risen. Is the US housing market also exceptional relative to Europe? No, it's nonsense and, in time, investors will come to claim they knew that all along," Edwards wrote. As for what could cause the potential bubbles in US stocks and home prices to burst, Edwards said to watch Japan. "In the wake of the ruling party coalition losing its Upper House majority, concerns in the bond market about the risks of further fiscal easing and high inflation are growing," he wrote. Higher inflation in Japan could mean higher interest rates and a further unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade, in which foreign investors borrowed cheaply in yen and converted to dollars to buy higher-yielding US assets. In 2024, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly hiked rates, roiling global markets as investors liquidated assets they had bought with borrowed yen. In May, Edwards warned rising interest rates in Japan could cause a " global financial Armageddon." Edwards publishes his notes, which regularly express a bearish outlook, under Société Générale's "alternative view," separate from the bank's house view. "A lot of clients who totally disagree with me like to read my stuff," he told Business Insider in May. "It's a reality check."
The Guardian
15-07-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
China's economy beats expectations in face of Trump's trade war
China's economy grew more strongly than expected in the second quarter as it proved resilient in the face of Donald Trump's trade war. China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.2% in April to June compared with a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, but just ahead of analysts' expectations for a rise of 5.1%. The world's second largest economy has so far avoided a sharp slowdown in part due to support by Beijing and as factories took advantage of a US-China trade truce to make shipments before tariffs kicked in, or 'front-loading'. Last month, the US and China extended the truce after two days of talks in London that resulted in a 'framework' deal over export restrictions on rare earths and semiconductors. However, investors are bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall, and consumer confidence remains low. China's policymakers face a daunting task in achieving the annual growth target of about 5% – a goal many analysts view as ambitious given entrenched deflation and weak demand at home. Wei Yao, an economist at Société Générale, said: 'Despite a strong first half, the outlook is set to sour in [the second half of the year] as export front-loading fades and the impact of US tariffs becomes more visible. 'Renewed weakness in house prices and the fading impact of subsidies also cast doubt over the sustainability of the consumption recovery.' Indeed, the solid headline GDP numbers held little sway for most households including Mallory Jiang, a 30-year-old doctor in the southern tech hub Shenzhen, who told Reuters she and her husband had pay cuts this year. 'Both our incomes as doctors have decreased, and we still don't dare buy an apartment. We are cutting back on expenses: commuting by public transport, eating at the hospital cafeteria or cooking at home. My life pressure is still actually quite high.' On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in April to June, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, compared with a forecast 0.9% increase and a 1.2% gain in the previous quarter. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Investors are closely watching for signs of fresh stimulus at the upcoming politburo meeting due in late July, which is likely to shape economic policy for the remainder of the year. Beijing has ramped up infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies, alongside monetary easing. In May, the central bank cut interest rates and injected liquidity as part of broader efforts to cushion the economy from US tariffs. Some analysts believe the government could increase deficit spending if growth slows sharply.
