China's economy beats expectations in face of Trump's trade war
China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.2% in April to June compared with a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, but just ahead of analysts' expectations for a rise of 5.1%.
The world's second largest economy has so far avoided a sharp slowdown in part due to support by Beijing and as factories took advantage of a US-China trade truce to make shipments before tariffs kicked in, or 'front-loading'.
Last month, the US and China extended the truce after two days of talks in London that resulted in a 'framework' deal over export restrictions on rare earths and semiconductors.
However, investors are bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall, and consumer confidence remains low.
China's policymakers face a daunting task in achieving the annual growth target of about 5% – a goal many analysts view as ambitious given entrenched deflation and weak demand at home.
Wei Yao, an economist at Société Générale, said: 'Despite a strong first half, the outlook is set to sour in [the second half of the year] as export front-loading fades and the impact of US tariffs becomes more visible.
'Renewed weakness in house prices and the fading impact of subsidies also cast doubt over the sustainability of the consumption recovery.'
Indeed, the solid headline GDP numbers held little sway for most households including Mallory Jiang, a 30-year-old doctor in the southern tech hub Shenzhen, who told Reuters she and her husband had pay cuts this year.
'Both our incomes as doctors have decreased, and we still don't dare buy an apartment. We are cutting back on expenses: commuting by public transport, eating at the hospital cafeteria or cooking at home. My life pressure is still actually quite high.'
On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in April to June, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, compared with a forecast 0.9% increase and a 1.2% gain in the previous quarter.
Sign up to Business Today
Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning
after newsletter promotion
Investors are closely watching for signs of fresh stimulus at the upcoming politburo meeting due in late July, which is likely to shape economic policy for the remainder of the year.
Beijing has ramped up infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies, alongside monetary easing. In May, the central bank cut interest rates and injected liquidity as part of broader efforts to cushion the economy from US tariffs.
Some analysts believe the government could increase deficit spending if growth slows sharply.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
25 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trump tariffs send chill through Greek peach harvest
NAOUSSA, July 16 (Reuters) - July is harvest time in Greece's northern peach orchards, where pickers mount wooden ladders and carefully place the fruit in crates ready for factories that peel, slice and can them, often for consumers in the United States. But this year, the harvest is filled with uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 30% tariff on European products that has sent shivers through industries from wine to olive oil and autos. Peach farmers and factory owners are worried that the tariffs will dent demand for their produce just as they are preparing to send their fresh harvest overseas, giving them little time to adapt or find alternative markets. Greece is the world's biggest exporter of tinned peaches, about one fifth of which goes to the United States, its second biggest market after Europe. Peaches, like some other goods, are already subject to a U.S. import levy of 17%. The new tariffs could increase the total import duty to 47%. "Now is even worse because it finds us at the peak, where the entire plant and all the production lines are working at full speed," said Lazaros Ioannidis, co-owner of a peach and fruit processing plant near Naoussa that sends about 40% of its produce to big U.S. companies like Dole. The fertile plain of Central Macedonia in Greece is one massive peach orchard. A sea of pink greets visitors in the spring, when the trees blossom. This week, trucks offloaded crate after crate brimming with thousands of yellow peaches at Ioannidis' plant, where they were loaded onto conveyor belts for processing. Greece's annual turnover from exports of tinned peach and other packaged peach products amounts to more than 600 million euros, with about 120 million euros coming from the U.S. market. Exports to the United States represent about 4% of Greece's total exports. Canned peach and peach derivatives, olives and olive oil are the three top exported agriculture products to the U.S., bringing home about half a billion euros annually. More than 20,000 families, farmers and workers make their income from peach farms and peach factories in Central Macedonia, according to Kostas Apostolou, head of the Greek Canners Association. "Our size might be small as a percentage for the country or the EU but for the region its a big source of income, vital for it's survival." "For the past 6 months, since Trump took office, we have been in a period of an absolute turmoil," says Apostolou. He said that the only alternative is to diversify exports to Mercosur countries in South America or to Mexico and India and urged the EU to sign a trade agreement with those countries. The EU was planning to approve a trade deal with Mercosur but has faced opposition from some countries. Still, there are also optimists "Trump is unpredictable. We hope that he will prove that and he will change this decision," said farmer Vangelis Karaindros as he and his employees picked ripe peaches by hand.
South Wales Guardian
an hour ago
- South Wales Guardian
Democracies around world must form new alliance to counter China, says Sunak
In his first major intervention on global affairs since leaving 10 Downing Street, he said existing alliances such as Nato and traditional free-trade arrangements were not sufficient to respond to Beijing. He suggested a grouping of democratic market economies could work together to reduce reliance on China for manufacturing and technology and have the combined industrial might to rival the Asian superpower's capacity to build military equipment. 'In an era of full-spectrum competition, we can't trade with rivals the same way we do with friends,' he said. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, he said democracies should band together or risk letting 'an authoritarian axis shape a new world order where might makes right, where technology bolsters authoritarianism and curtails individual liberty, and where trade is a weapon of coercion'. The former prime minister said: 'The next decade will be one of the most dangerous yet most transformational periods the world has ever seen. Democratic market states must seize this moment and shape it. 'If they don't, it will be the axis of authoritarian states — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — that takes advantage of this opportunity.' He said 'old-fashioned great power competition' is returning in the form of China presenting the US with a 'credible economic, technological and military rival for the first time in 40 years'. In a message to Donald Trump, he said: 'The US must realise that no country on its own can face down the axis of authoritarian states. 'But together, democratic market economies can outcompete any rival coalition and deliver peace and prosperity for their people.' He said a broader alliance than Nato was needed, spanning the Indo-Pacific as well as the the Euro-Atlantic. Mr Sunak said Jiangnan in China has more capacity than 'every US shipyard put together', but a combined allied production strategy with South Korea and Japan would allow competition with China on building up naval fleets. The economic strength of a democratic alliance could also persuade 'key global swing states' to back the US and its allies rather than China and Russia. Greater trade among allies would also reduce the 'economic pain' from breaking away from China in strategically important areas. Countries that fail to restrict technology transfer to China or leave themselves dependent on Chinese technology 'should be excluded from reciprocal free trade'. 'If China overtakes us in artificial intelligence, it will gain not only economic but strategic primacy, given its potential military applications,' he warned.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Rupee falls as US inflation jitters dent Fed rate cut bets, hoist dollar
MUMBAI, July 16(Reuters) - The Indian rupee fell on Wednesday as the latest U.S. inflation report showed that tariffs were beginning to feed into prices, weakening bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which lifted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. The rupee closed at 85.94 per U.S. dollar, down 0.1% from its close at 85.81 in the previous session. The dollar index was at 98.5, hovering close to a three-week high hit on Tuesday, while Asian currencies were flat-to-slightly lower. U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in five months in June, with higher prices for some goods suggesting that tariffs have started to bite. The odds of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September have risen to nearly one-in-two, up from around 30% last week, per the CME's FedWatch tool. The shift comes at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering benchmark rates. "Building evidence of the pick-up in inflation from tariffs supports the Fed's caution over resuming rates cuts in the near-term despite the barrage of criticism from the Trump administration," MUFG said in a note. A broadly firmer dollar pushed the rupee below the 86 mark in early trading on Wednesday, but the local currency recovered due to "clustered" dollar selling interest around that level, a trader at a state-run bank said. Traders also pointed to dollar sales by large custodian banks, which usually signals foreign portfolio inflows, among the factors supporting the rupee. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN), opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab, closed a tad higher, dodging a decline in most regional peers. Market focus will be on U.S. wholesale inflation data later in the day alongside remarks from Fed policymakers for cues on the trajectory of benchmark U.S. interest rates. Developments on U.S. trade negotiations will also be on the radar, although market reactions have become much more subdued compared to earlier in the year.
