Latest news with #SouthernAnnularMode
Sky News AU
07-06-2025
- Climate
- Sky News AU
Australia set for ski season 'turnaround' in 2025 with constant snowfall over long weekend making way for 'blue-sky days', tapering off by end of June
The opening weekend of the Australian ski season is upon us – and this time there's an abundance of snow. Keen skiers and snow boarders can get excited, but don't take this as certainty of a bumper winter ahead. The year 2025 is likely to be yet another season bringing both the good and the bad for the ski resorts. Snow season starter For the past two years, Australia's snow-lovers have marked the opening of the Aussie ski season on grass due to poor snowmaking conditions and a lack of natural snowfall in the lead up to mid-June. It promises to be quite the turnaround this year with snow falling on every day of the long weekend – and beyond. This is the best start to the ski season since heavy snow enveloped the slopes for the opening weekend of 2022. A low-pressure system is pushing across southeast Australia providing four days of almost constant snowfall. This will set a great base for the rest of the season. Follow-up snow? The rest of June doesn't look as promising. Forecast models that make predictions over the course of a few weeks are suggesting higher than usual pressure in southeast Australia. This essentially means the chances of seeing strong cold fronts – or low pressure systems like we're currently seeing – are reduced. Therefore, I'd expect plenty of blue-sky days, and some chilly nights good for snow making, but less fresh snow than usual at this time of year. By the end of June it's likely that snow depths will be below normal for that time of year – but at least people should be able to ski each day. Why is the Australian ski season so hard to predict? The answer lies in these facts: Cold fronts are our main snowmakers – their strength and position are usually determined by a short-term polar climate driver called the Southern Annular Mode - which can't be predicted with any certainty long-term. A positive SAM can limit cold fronts, while a prolonged period under a negative SAM can bring week after week with many powder days. A temperature difference of 1C on any day could be the difference between one metre of snow and 100mm of rain – it's difficult to pinpoint outside of a week ahead of time. Autumn snowfalls have no correlation with winter snow depth. A handful of heavy snow events can make a season, even if the overall precipitation was well below average. For all these reasons, I'm not going to give you a hard and certain outlook for the 2025 ski season. It simply isn't possible! But I have gleaned some clues from the oceans and historical precedent. Climate Change It's hard to talk about Australia's ski fields without addressing the elephant in the room: climate change. On the whole, Australia's snow season is getting shorter with less frequent and plentiful snow. In the first 39 years of snow data at Spencers Creek (1,820m above sea level) in the NSW Snowy Mountains we had five seasons exceed three metres of natural snow. The most recent was in 1992. Here is a list of the peak snow depth in the last five years: 2024: 125cm 2023: 131cm 2022: 232cm 2021: 184cm 2020: 168cm Only 2022 was above the long-term average of 195cm. The problem gets worse at lower elevations. Nearby in the Snowies Deep Creek (1,620m asl) and three Mile Dam (1,460m asl) are seeing even faster reductions of peak snow depth of approximately 5cm every 10 years. This means that the lower lying ski resorts are seeing the impacts of climate change even faster. Help from the Indian Ocean Earlier in the article I flagged that the greatest driver of seasonal snow depth was the SAM, but other climate drivers do play a role. The most likely secondary contributor to the forecast mix is the Indian Ocean. This year it is likely to move into a negative, or wet, phase. This means that more tropical moisture is expected to feed across Australia from the Indian Ocean (off the WA coastline) during the second half of winter and into spring. This means that when it rains and snows in the alpine regions through the next five months the totals of both rain and snow are likely to be larger than in an average year. The tricky thing here is the temperature. If it's too warm it's likely to rain and wash away the snow, but if it's cold enough we could see huge snow dumps. Good end to season likely We are almost certain to finish the season stronger than in 2024 and 2023. The last two years had the lowest early September snow depths on record as warm temperatures and rain swept across the Alps. This year's climate mix means this is unlikely to be repeated for a third year running. Historically, during Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) years (as this year is likely to be) we've seen a stronger end to the season. This is for two reasons: The extra moisture feeding into the mountains in the coldest time of the year. The extra cloud and rain brought through by -IOD events often helps to cool Australia and prevent some of the rapid early spring warming we've seen in recent years. Therefore, I'm expecting many more days with snow on the ground this year. There should be quite a few rainy days that spoil the slopes for a time, but that should be counteracted by some handy snowfall through July, August and probably even September. For the latest weather outlooks and climate forecasts be sure to tune into Sky News Weather Channel 601 on Foxtel
Sydney Morning Herald
31-05-2025
- Climate
- Sydney Morning Herald
What winter has in store for Sydney and NSW
Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast of NSW, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that had killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other species with gills. The South Australian government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light winds and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. In an update on Thursday, the SA government said it hoped recent strong winds and ocean swells would break up the algal bloom. Internationally, King said the northern spring had brought wildfires in Scotland, while Spain was unusually wet. In Switzerland last week, a thawing glacier collapsed onto the village below and razed the forest. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Winter is here The weather bureau published its latest seasonal outlook for winter on Thursday. For June-August, the bureau sees a greater than 80 per cent chance of above-average maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Australia. In south-western and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north, the chances of unusually high maximum temperatures are above 70 per cent. In southern, eastern and northern parts of Australia, the chances of unusually high minimum temperatures exceed 70 per cent. The bureau also found a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for much of mainland Australia, but even odds on whether it was wetter, drier or the same as usual for much of south-west Western Australia and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north. This was driven in part by an expectation that the Indian Ocean Dipole would switch to a negative phase by the end of winter. Bushfires and mould The Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services warns of an extra bushfire risk, especially in Victoria and South Australia. Mould is another risk for those in regions expecting heat and rain. Goran Surbevski at air-conditioning company Alliance Climate Control recommended running air-conditioning in 'dry mode', which sucks moisture out of the air. 'It's especially useful during those mild, rainy days when full heating isn't needed, but the air still feels damp,' Surbevski said. Standalone dehumidifiers can do the same thing, and insulation can prevent water entering. Patchy snow In the Australian Alps, businesses dependent on snow tourism fear they are in for another bad year. Loading Jindabyne business owner Olivier Kapetanakos said the past few years were like living through 'a climate change battle' from bushfires to floods as well as COVID-19. 'Now we've got what looks like to be the third bad winter snow season coming through,' he said. 'Businesses relying on tourism have had a pretty hard trot.' Kapetanakos, president of the Jindabyne Chamber of Commerce, part owner of a tourism real estate business and operator of farmstay provider Avonside Alpine Estate, said the snow season had shrunk from a 14-16 week season to a 12-week season in the past decade, and he expected that in future it could last just eight weeks. Snowy Monaro Regional Council had a gross regional product of $1.96 billion in 2024-25. Of that, $798.8 million was attributable to tourism. Kapetanakos said there were efforts to make tourism a year-round industry for the Snowy Mountains, by attracting hikers to a new multi-day walk and mountain bikers in the warmer months. Yet the most concentrated economic activity was the snow season because it was such an expensive time of year. King said climate change was a big threat to the ski industry in Australia in the long term, but the seasonal outlook could not accurately predict snow conditions in such a small area. Also, temperature would affect whether precipitation fell as snow or rain. 'In any given winter you might get lucky and just happen to have a good dump of snow at a good time,' King said.
The Age
31-05-2025
- Climate
- The Age
What winter has in store for Sydney and NSW
Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast of NSW, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that had killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other species with gills. The South Australian government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light winds and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. In an update on Thursday, the SA government said it hoped recent strong winds and ocean swells would break up the algal bloom. Internationally, King said the northern spring had brought wildfires in Scotland, while Spain was unusually wet. In Switzerland last week, a thawing glacier collapsed onto the village below and razed the forest. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Winter is here The weather bureau published its latest seasonal outlook for winter on Thursday. For June-August, the bureau sees a greater than 80 per cent chance of above-average maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Australia. In south-western and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north, the chances of unusually high maximum temperatures are above 70 per cent. In southern, eastern and northern parts of Australia, the chances of unusually high minimum temperatures exceed 70 per cent. The bureau also found a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for much of mainland Australia, but even odds on whether it was wetter, drier or the same as usual for much of south-west Western Australia and south-eastern Australia, and parts of the tropical north. This was driven in part by an expectation that the Indian Ocean Dipole would switch to a negative phase by the end of winter. Bushfires and mould The Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services warns of an extra bushfire risk, especially in Victoria and South Australia. Mould is another risk for those in regions expecting heat and rain. Goran Surbevski at air-conditioning company Alliance Climate Control recommended running air-conditioning in 'dry mode', which sucks moisture out of the air. 'It's especially useful during those mild, rainy days when full heating isn't needed, but the air still feels damp,' Surbevski said. Standalone dehumidifiers can do the same thing, and insulation can prevent water entering. Patchy snow In the Australian Alps, businesses dependent on snow tourism fear they are in for another bad year. Loading Jindabyne business owner Olivier Kapetanakos said the past few years were like living through 'a climate change battle' from bushfires to floods as well as COVID-19. 'Now we've got what looks like to be the third bad winter snow season coming through,' he said. 'Businesses relying on tourism have had a pretty hard trot.' Kapetanakos, president of the Jindabyne Chamber of Commerce, part owner of a tourism real estate business and operator of farmstay provider Avonside Alpine Estate, said the snow season had shrunk from a 14-16 week season to a 12-week season in the past decade, and he expected that in future it could last just eight weeks. Snowy Monaro Regional Council had a gross regional product of $1.96 billion in 2024-25. Of that, $798.8 million was attributable to tourism. Kapetanakos said there were efforts to make tourism a year-round industry for the Snowy Mountains, by attracting hikers to a new multi-day walk and mountain bikers in the warmer months. Yet the most concentrated economic activity was the snow season because it was such an expensive time of year. King said climate change was a big threat to the ski industry in Australia in the long term, but the seasonal outlook could not accurately predict snow conditions in such a small area. Also, temperature would affect whether precipitation fell as snow or rain. 'In any given winter you might get lucky and just happen to have a good dump of snow at a good time,' King said.
The Age
31-05-2025
- Climate
- The Age
‘Seemingly endless fire season' predicted for Victoria this winter
Climate scientist David Karoly said there had been long-term declines in average snow cover and depth, and the length of the snow season, over the past 30 years. 'To get the big snow dumps ... that build the snow base and allow it to survive rainfall … is associated with cold temperatures that flow from the Antarctic region. And unfortunately this season, and for many of the past few winters, there's been much above average temperatures.' Abnormally warm and dry conditions have been repeated in South Australia, with communities in the state's southern coastal areas, and significant portions of western, south-western and south-eastern Victoria, warned to prepare for unseasonable bushfire risks. Loading Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Caitlin Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other gilled species. The SA government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light wind and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture. Closer to home, Country Fire Authority Acting Chief Officer Garry Cook said bushfires remained a real risk despite the onset of winter. 'The lack of rainfall and dry vegetation across many parts of the state is a great concern for firefighters this time of the year, and we're asking people to remain vigilant and not become complacent just because we're not in summer any more,' he said. 'While cooler days are arriving, the landscape remains dry enough to allow fires to start and spread quickly if a burn-off gets out of control, especially when coupled with strong winds.' Cropping and grassland areas would be grazed out or mostly bare, according to the Australian and New Zealand council for fire and emergency services, but forested areas would be at increased risk of fires. Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the ongoing drought across parts of Victoria and SA was causing 'a seemingly endless 2025 fire season'. 'Tasmania is also likely to see organic soils smouldering throughout winter due to the state's ongoing deep soil dryness,' he said.
Sydney Morning Herald
31-05-2025
- Climate
- Sydney Morning Herald
‘Seemingly endless fire season' predicted for Victoria this winter
Climate scientist David Karoly said there had been long-term declines in average snow cover and depth, and the length of the snow season, over the past 30 years. 'To get the big snow dumps ... that build the snow base and allow it to survive rainfall … is associated with cold temperatures that flow from the Antarctic region. And unfortunately this season, and for many of the past few winters, there's been much above average temperatures.' Abnormally warm and dry conditions have been repeated in South Australia, with communities in the state's southern coastal areas, and significant portions of western, south-western and south-eastern Victoria, warned to prepare for unseasonable bushfire risks. Loading Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode. Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Caitlin Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break. All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania. In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other gilled species. The SA government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light wind and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula. King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture. Closer to home, Country Fire Authority Acting Chief Officer Garry Cook said bushfires remained a real risk despite the onset of winter. 'The lack of rainfall and dry vegetation across many parts of the state is a great concern for firefighters this time of the year, and we're asking people to remain vigilant and not become complacent just because we're not in summer any more,' he said. 'While cooler days are arriving, the landscape remains dry enough to allow fires to start and spread quickly if a burn-off gets out of control, especially when coupled with strong winds.' Cropping and grassland areas would be grazed out or mostly bare, according to the Australian and New Zealand council for fire and emergency services, but forested areas would be at increased risk of fires. Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the ongoing drought across parts of Victoria and SA was causing 'a seemingly endless 2025 fire season'. 'Tasmania is also likely to see organic soils smouldering throughout winter due to the state's ongoing deep soil dryness,' he said.
