‘Seemingly endless fire season' predicted for Victoria this winter

The Age

31-05-2025

Climate scientist David Karoly said there had been long-term declines in average snow cover and depth, and the length of the snow season, over the past 30 years.
'To get the big snow dumps ... that build the snow base and allow it to survive rainfall … is associated with cold temperatures that flow from the Antarctic region. And unfortunately this season, and for many of the past few winters, there's been much above average temperatures.'
Abnormally warm and dry conditions have been repeated in South Australia, with communities in the state's southern coastal areas, and significant portions of western, south-western and south-eastern Victoria, warned to prepare for unseasonable bushfire risks.
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Winter follows an autumn that was book-ended by a cyclone in the Brisbane region and floods in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales, while inland areas suffered record-breaking drought because of the position of the Southern Annular Mode.
Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Caitlin Minney said it was unclear when the drought would break.
All the while, the continent was ringed by a marine heatwave that killed coral in both Queensland and Western Australia and millions of fish in salmon farms in Tasmania.
In South Australia, a bloom of Karenia mikimotoi algae has blanketed thousands of square kilometres of the ocean with discoloured water and foam for weeks, killing fish, sharks, rays, seahorses and other gilled species.
The SA government said experts believed the marine heatwave – 2.5 degrees warmer than usual – combined with calm conditions, light wind and small swells had led to the bloom off the coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island and the southern coast of Yorke Peninsula.
King said the link between climate change and heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean, was clear. It was more difficult to attribute specific rainfall events to global warming, though a warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture.
Closer to home, Country Fire Authority Acting Chief Officer Garry Cook said bushfires remained a real risk despite the onset of winter.
'The lack of rainfall and dry vegetation across many parts of the state is a great concern for firefighters this time of the year, and we're asking people to remain vigilant and not become complacent just because we're not in summer any more,' he said.
'While cooler days are arriving, the landscape remains dry enough to allow fires to start and spread quickly if a burn-off gets out of control, especially when coupled with strong winds.'
Cropping and grassland areas would be grazed out or mostly bare, according to the Australian and New Zealand council for fire and emergency services, but forested areas would be at increased risk of fires.
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the ongoing drought across parts of Victoria and SA was causing 'a seemingly endless 2025 fire season'.
'Tasmania is also likely to see organic soils smouldering throughout winter due to the state's ongoing deep soil dryness,' he said.